Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

By Absol197, in Star Wars: Edge of the Empire RPG

Wow.

So, Genesys just changed to Shipping Now today, and the official release date is November 30. That's...pretty darn impressive! That's a boating time of just 13 days, since Genesys went On the Boat the same day as the new Star Wars books (well, most of them) went to At the Printer .

Is this a new trend in how fast boating will be? Or is this just a one-off exception due to it being Genesys, the core book for a new product line?

The fact that the Edge Game Master's Kit went On the Boat at the same time as Genesys and hasn't changed status seems to imply that it is indeed a one-off, but there remains a sliver of hope that it isn't. And even if it isn't, if they can do this for Genesys, which was most certainly held up by whatever foul-ups plagued FFG's RPGs this year, it's possible that they'll make use of the same exception for our new books!

Is it likely? ...Probably not, as those new books probably aren't expected to make FFG as much money as the Genesys Core book is, but is it possible? Heck yes!

Edited by Absol197

That’s an awesome release date for me. The local game store should be in its annual “buy 2/get 1 free” sale that normally runs from Black Friday to January 1.

So Absol were your tingling montrals because of the amazing timing of Genesys or is there a SW announcement coming today?

Edited by warchild1x
typos

@Absol197 Have RPG announcements usually landed on a Thursday toward the upper half of the month? If not what day is most preferred?

Well, I was trying to imply a new Star Wars RPG thing this week, but since that hasn't happened yet, I may decide to hedge my bets and say it was because of Genesys changing status :P !

But seriously, I noticed something just now, and I'm a bit shocked I didn't notice it earlier: of the past six new books announced ( Ghosts of Dathomir, Disciples of Harmony, Fully Operational, Cyphers and Masks, Dawn of Rebellion, and Unlimited Power (!!!)), FIVE have been announced on a Friday. The only one that wasn't was Dawn , which also has the destinction of being the only non-main line book in the bunch (and the only one that was the second announcement that month, but I think that's less important).

Is this a new trend? Throughout the history of the line, there has never, and I mean NEVER been this much consistency in the day of the week that new announcements happen. The closest we've come is a couple instances of three out of four, but we've never seen a four-in-a-row scenario, and then we jumped straight back in after the one-off.

If so...maybe new book tomorrow? The only thing that makes me iffy on that is that today is the 16th. We've only had three books announced after the 16th, and they are few and far between. And the most recent one was Unlimited Power , literally the last book announced. And those books are all announced in the 20's: Stay on Target 08/22/2014, Lead by Example 10/26/2015, Unlimited Power (!!!!1!) 09/22/2017.

Is the 17th close enough to eke us out an announcement this month? Or will we be forced to languish until the next, awaiting our next delicious book to salivate over?

EDIT: Does this answer your questions, Shlam :) ?

Edited by Absol197

Yes this answer is sufficient my prophet, So it is tomorrow or bust!

:(

Darn, I was hoping. I guess the tingle was indeed Genesys, which was quite miraculous in and of itself, just not what we were hoping for.

On the plus side, I got my copy of TI4 on Thursday! Yay!

Woo! We got a massive update today! A whole bunch of books went On the Boat , and that opened up space for Dawn of Rebellion and the d6 30th Anniversary game to change to At the Printer !

No updates on the other new books yet, but it's movement! Yay movement! Along with the super-cool article for Genesys , this is turning out to be a fun day!

Edited by Absol197

What how does this do to the chart?

24 minutes ago, Daeglan said:

What how does this do to the chart?

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Still no warrior article on the news page... :( but good news all around that stuff seems to be moving real quick.

I have now seen 25 updates to the page since I've been checking.

I know it's rough, Shlam. But there's little reason to keep battering yourself against the News page until the beginning of December. I find it highly unlikely we'll get two late-month announcements in a row.

Really what we need to watch is how long this new batch spends on the boat. It might help us (who am I kidding.... help Absol) determine if the Genesys timing was an anomaly/special situation or the new normal.

Great Prophetess,

Is there any chance that my little sister will get her Warrior book by June?

11 hours ago, Vorzakk said:

Great Prophetess,

Is there any chance that my little sister will get her Warrior book by June?

Earlier than that please!

Ugh, sorry for the wait, folks! I had to fly to, of all places, Oregon. Seriously.

I'm choking on all this oxygen , it smells like the ocean everywhere...how do people live here :P ?

But now that I'm settled in, I can jump on my computer and review some data for y'all before I hit the hay (I can neither confirm nor deny if that is idiomatic or literal here). So...I believe the questions were regarding Warriors?

14 hours ago, Vorzakk said:

Great Prophetess,

Is there any chance that my little sister will get her Warrior book by June?

3 hours ago, Shlambate said:

Earlier than that please!

It appears so :) . So let's see. By June (or earlier)? Let me call my numbers mystical seeing symbols! Let's assume a release date of June 14th and work backwards, and see where that gets us. The final result will tell us how late the Warrior book could be announced, in theory, and still hit that release date.

So, the average total development time for non-core books is 142.76 days, and the longest (excluding SoR and GoD) is Chronicles of the Gatekeeper at 209. So, with an average development time, we would need to be announced by January 22. That's...an unlikely date, so let's reel that back to January 16th, to be in line with the early-month trend. That gives us two possible months for the announcement to get it to us by June: December and January, obviously. Assuming that the Warrior is the next book announced, and we didn't get an announcement in either October or November (although it could be argued that by being a rare late-month announcement, that Unlimited Power (!!!) counts for October, but then we didn't get one for September, so...), we've got a high likelihood to get it! There's even a possibility (albeit a lower one) that the Warrior book could be out by June even if it's not the next book announced, assuming we get the mystery book in December and the Warrior in January. It's lower odds, but possible.

And we do need to consider that every year since the beginning of the game has had at least 6 announcements (6, 6, 9, 6), and we're only at five for this year, so a December announcement is very high-probability.

That's using an average historic development time, though. While, as mentioned, the new printing facilities will hopefully speed up printing, and Genesys's recent behavior gives us the hope of much swifter boating than before, in the case that things get extended, the extreme end is 209 days, or an announcement needed by November 17. Or, basically, we already missed it :( . Although at the opposite extreme, the record-fastest book, Beyond the Rim 's 92 days, we could wait until March 14 and still make it! And while that much speed seems unlikely nowadays as compared to the early days of Edge, keep in mind that a bunch of recent(-ish) books were very close to it. Forged in Battle was a speedy 100 days, Endless Vigil made it to us at the brisk pace of 107, and Friends like These was 115. So it is possible to get a low development time. We just shouldn't count on it with all that's happened since then.

Sorry I couldn't bring better news, but hopefully that helps :( .

Okies, night all! I'm going to pass out from jet lag and oxygen poisoning! See y'all tomorrow!

Edited by Absol197

Thank you for the very thorough reply, Absol; and I hope you enjoy Oregon.

May I ask where you normally live which is so bereft of oxygen?

42 minutes ago, Vorzakk said:

Thank you for the very thorough reply, Absol; and I hope you enjoy Oregon.

May I ask where you normally live which is so bereft of oxygen?

She's a Togruta so Shili of course!

I'm unfortunately not from the home world. Instead, my point of origin is a lovely place that rests an entire mile above the sea :) .

56 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

Instead, my point of origin is a lovely place that rests an entire mile above the sea :)

Ah! I was thinking polluted city. High altitude didn't even occur to me.

I live at sea level thank you very much it is lovely by the Water and with our Oxygen! ;)

3 hours ago, Absol197 said:

I'm unfortunately not from the home world. Instead, my point of origin is a lovely place that rests an entire mile above the sea :) .

4 hours ago, Absol197 said:

I'm unfortunately not from the home world. Instead, my point of origin is a lovely place that rests an entire mile above the sea :) .

I know roughly where she is. I have even been to her lovely city. :). No I wont tell you. The riddle is easy.

Denver. It's Denver. The answer is Denver :P .

I know I've said it here before, so it's not even a riddle, it's just memory (or scrolling through this thread).

But I've discovered another dreaded feature of the coast: humidity! I am not a fish, why do people think I can breathe water if they hide it in the air :P ?

1 minute ago, Absol197 said:

Denver. It's Denver. The answer is Denver :P .

I know I've said it here before, so it's not even a riddle, it's just memory (or scrolling through this thread).

But I've discovered another dreaded feature of the coast: humidity! I am not a fish, why do people think I can breathe water if they hide it in the air :P ?

oh fu..... tAKE ALL THE FUN OUT OF IT :P

So what do shippling dates look like for what is currently at the printer?

3 minutes ago, Daeglan said:

oh fu..... tAKE ALL THE FUN OUT OF IT :P

So what do shippling dates look like for what is currently at the printer?

:P

Well, currently, the minimum time is 21 days, the maximum is 74, and the mean is 34.14 days. So an average of 5 weeks, a minimum of 3. As of today, we are at 21 days At the Printer for the first batch, so I'd expect them to change either next week or the week after. And then we get to boating, which, to be honest, I'm still not certain about. There's been so much weirdness recently that I need a few books to run through so I can recalibrate before I'll feel confident in my accuracy again.