Interesting. I like it. I'd like it even more if it was showing as at the printer but I quibble about minor details.

I also noticed an oddity on the fully operational articles. Nowhere does it have any mention of release date/quarter like cyphers does. My thoughts are that it could be one of 3 things. Release dates were omitted in light of the hanjin fiasco that was going down when the articles were released. It is actually scheduled for q4 and the resident monkey lizards in charge of the internet forgot to update it. Finally, they had some problems with the playtest copies and the book is going through some rewrites and will be out... soon (tm).

I'm honestly just glad that they're updating the star wars stuff again. It was almost like FFG had forgotten about the property for awhile.

I thought it was originally slated for earlier this year. If so, they probably removed that part from the articles when they started having whatever shipping issues that were going on recently.

5 hours ago, warchild1x said:

Interesting. I like it. I'd like it even more if it was showing as at the printer but I quibble about minor details.

I also noticed an oddity on the fully operational articles. Nowhere does it have any mention of release date/quarter like cyphers does. My thoughts are that it could be one of 3 things. Release dates were omitted in light of the hanjin fiasco that was going down when the articles were released. It is actually scheduled for q4 and the resident monkey lizards in charge of the internet forgot to update it. Finally, they had some problems with the playtest copies and the book is going through some rewrites and will be out... soon (tm).

I'm honestly just glad that they're updating the star wars stuff again. It was almost like FFG had forgotten about the property for awhile.

4 hours ago, kaosoe said:

I thought it was originally slated for earlier this year. If so, they probably removed that part from the articles when they started having whatever shipping issues that were going on recently.

The Built to Spec Preview Article does still say a Q3 launch in 2017

6 minutes ago, XGrifterX said:

The Built to Spec Preview Article does still say a Q3 launch in 2017

There you go.

I never bothered to go back and double check my work. Nor do I put any stock in FFGs release dates (even prior to this year).

Did you do ypur ptedictive math working back from the ghosts shipping date to get insite into for example fully op?

When will we get a re-print for Special Modifications?

We will get a re-print Hopefully with a Warrior announcement. Or is that too much to ask?

1 hour ago, Vestij Jai Galaar said:

When will we get a re-print for Special Modifications?

15 hours ago, Daeglan said:

Did you do ypur ptedictive math working back from the ghosts shipping date to get insite into for example fully op?

Partly. It was busy at work today, so I couldn't get it all done. But I got started! Should be able to get it done tomorrow!

15 hours ago, Vestij Jai Galaar said:

When will we get a re-print for Special Modifications?

Hmm hmm hmm, let's see...it's currently listed as Awaiting Reprint , meaning they're aware of the need. However, I think it might be a while: they have at least 5 major Star Wars RPG products that will likely take up their printer slots first: the four newly announced books and the 30th Anniversary d6 book.

Then we also have the F&D Core book. As far as I can tell, they generally put a higher priority on core books, because they're needed to get new people into the game. So total, we have at least five other books before Special Modifications is likely to get a go. Unfortunately .

11 hours ago, Vestij Jai Galaar said:

When will we get a re-print for Special Modifications?

Looks like you can get one on Amazon for only $130 plus tax and shipping.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/1633442497

1 hour ago, sonovabith said:

Looks like you can get one on Amazon for only $130 plus tax and shipping.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/1633442497

What we need is an FFGSW underground, where some folks go look at the FLGS and report back their inventory. Might be quite a bit cheaper than $130! I know two gaming stores within an hour that likely have that book in stock and don't advertise them online.

That's a solid idea. I'll try to get to the two in town tomorrow and report back if either have SM available.

Actually that's not a bad idea - although we should spin this off into it's own thread as to not clutter up the prediction thread with trades and stuff.

EDIT: Done!

Okay, folks! Who’s up for some MATH!

So, the question for today is: based on Ghosts of Dathomir finally beginning the Shipping Now portion of its journey, can we get an estimate of when the other announced books might begin moving, too?

So, the first thing to do is determine when things started moving again. Now, of course, Ghosts of Dathomir had to be re-printed and re-boated before it could start shipping, so to begin let’s back-calculate approximately when those things happened. Average printing takes ~34.14 days, and average boating (excluding Ghosts of Dathomir itself, for obvious reasons) is ~46.88 days.

So subtracting that from the day the status changed to Shipping Now (9/29/2017), we get that the new print run started around 07/09/2017. Okay, great! Now, can we use that as the new “starting point” for all of our other outstanding books? Let’s see.

All other new announced books are currently listed as In Development . Average time In Development before the whole snafu was ~39.14 days before going to the printer. That would mean that all those books, or at least one of them (with the exception of Unlimited Power , which was only announced eleven days ago), would be expected to go to being At the Printer by 08/18/2017.

Clearly, that didn’t happen. Okay, so…maybe instead of looking at the average time In Development , we should look at the maximum time? I mean, the time it’s taken has been increases over recent books. The current maximum I’ve tracked has been 73 days, for Ghosts of Dathomir itself. Keep in mind, this was before the Hanjin incident, so this could likely be considered a “normal” development for that book.

So, 07/09/2017 + 73 days is 09/20/2017. Nope, we still didn’t get that, either. So what to do? Let’s do something else: let’s take the start of Ghosts ’ new boating on 08/13/2017 as our start point, and see what we get from there. If we add the maximum development time to that date, we get 10/25/17. Seems reasonable for at least one of the new books to get to the printer by then, so that works as a baseline. Most likely this would be Fully Operational , as it was announced first and all of its pre-release articles have already been posted.

So, “start” date of 08/13/2017 + 73 days In Development + 34.14 days At the Printer + 46.88 days On the Boat + 15.27 days Shipping Now gives us an estimated arrival on store shelves of 01/29/2018. Wrapping that to the closest Thursday, we get February 1, 2018 (02/01/2017). Hmm…not all that great. But, it’s what we got.

Here’s hoping we can get some firmer data (and some better news!) once books actually start printing!

1 hour ago, Absol197 said:

Okay, folks! Who’s up for some MATH!

So, the question for today is: based on Ghosts of Dathomir finally beginning the Shipping Now portion of its journey, can we get an estimate of when the other announced books might begin moving, too?

So, the first thing to do is determine when things started moving again. Now, of course, Ghosts of Dathomir had to be re-printed and re-boated before it could start shipping, so to begin let’s back-calculate approximately when those things happened. Average printing takes ~34.14 days, and average boating (excluding Ghosts of Dathomir itself, for obvious reasons) is ~46.88 days.

So subtracting that from the day the status changed to Shipping Now (9/29/2017), we get that the new print run started around 07/09/2017. Okay, great! Now, can we use that as the new “starting point” for all of our other outstanding books? Let’s see.

All other new announced books are currently listed as In Development . Average time In Development before the whole snafu was ~39.14 days before going to the printer. That would mean that all those books, or at least one of them (with the exception of Unlimited Power , which was only announced eleven days ago), would be expected to go to being At the Printer by 08/18/2017.

Clearly, that didn’t happen. Okay, so…maybe instead of looking at the average time In Development , we should look at the maximum time? I mean, the time it’s taken has been increases over recent books. The current maximum I’ve tracked has been 73 days, for Ghosts of Dathomir itself. Keep in mind, this was before the Hanjin incident, so this could likely be considered a “normal” development for that book.

So, 07/09/2017 + 73 days is 09/20/2017. Nope, we still didn’t get that, either. So what to do? Let’s do something else: let’s take the start of Ghosts ’ new boating on 08/13/2017 as our start point, and see what we get from there. If we add the maximum development time to that date, we get 10/25/17. Seems reasonable for at least one of the new books to get to the printer by then, so that works as a baseline. Most likely this would be Fully Operational , as it was announced first and all of its pre-release articles have already been posted.

So, “start” date of 08/13/2017 + 73 days In Development + 34.14 days At the Printer + 46.88 days On the Boat + 15.27 days Shipping Now gives us an estimated arrival on store shelves of 01/29/2018. Wrapping that to the closest Thursday, we get February 1, 2018 (02/01/2017). Hmm…not all that great. But, it’s what we got.

Here’s hoping we can get some firmer data (and some better news!) once books actually start printing!

What if we assume thenupcoming page is basically worthless. And assume FO went to the printer immediately after ghosts. Because i am pretty sure all the dev time was done. And rather the upcoming page stopped really being updated due to snafu.

We could, but I'm not convinced that they did forget to update it. They've been updating it for other products. Both the F&D and Edge Game Master's Kits have been updated, Mask of the Pirate Queen was just added to Awaiting Reprint , and the Age beginner game moved to Shipping Now at the same time as Ghosts . It seems clear they haven't forgotten, they're just moving through a massive backlog.

If you're looking for another angle, I think a better answer might be to look at Genesys. Genesys went At the Printer on 09/21/2017. That's right around when we would have expected a max-duration Development to end if we base our timeframe on when Ghosts of Dathomir would have started re-printing. So it's possible that, once Genesys is out of the printer, then another book might move in.

Average printing time is 34.14, as I said before, but it stretches a little longer because this is a core book and therefore it's a bit bigger (and they're likely doing a bigger print run, as it's effectively a "new" system). The max print time I've tracked is 74 days, also for Ghosts (man, Ghosts is the worst at everything ), so that puts Genesys out and On the Boat probably no later than 12/04/2017, allowing another book to take its slot. Possibly two slots, because of the size that run likely is.

That's about a month later than my previous prediction. I would assume that the real answer will lie in between the two.

The Prophet has SPOKEN!!

Now great Oracle can you gaze into the mind of Zeus and tell me when Laser Spear wielding Spartans may grace the pages of a Book in my Lap.

Speaking of Genesys, do you have a prediction for GeneSys (I know you are mostly tracking the Star Wars stuff).

8 minutes ago, kaosoe said:

Speaking of Genesys, do you have a prediction for GeneSys (I know you are mostly tracking the Star Wars stuff).

I'm going with tomorrow........

13 minutes ago, 2P51 said:

I'm going with tomorrow........

My money is on day after tomorrow, no whammies.

3 hours ago, Absol197 said:

We could, but I'm not convinced that they did forget to update it. They've been updating it for other products. Both the F&D and Edge Game Master's Kits have been updated, Mask of the Pirate Queen was just added to Awaiting Reprint , and the Age beginner game moved to Shipping Now at the same time as Ghosts . It seems clear they haven't forgotten, they're just moving through a massive backlog.

If you're looking for another angle, I think a better answer might be to look at Genesys. Genesys went At the Printer on 09/21/2017. That's right around when we would have expected a max-duration Development to end if we base our timeframe on when Ghosts of Dathomir would have started re-printing. So it's possible that, once Genesys is out of the printer, then another book might move in.

Average printing time is 34.14, as I said before, but it stretches a little longer because this is a core book and therefore it's a bit bigger (and they're likely doing a bigger print run, as it's effectively a "new" system). The max print time I've tracked is 74 days, also for Ghosts (man, Ghosts is the worst at everything , so that puts Genesys out and On the Boat probably no later than 12/04/2017, allowing another book to take its slot. Possibly two slots, because of the size that run likely is.

That's about a month later than my previous prediction. I would assume that the real answer will lie in between the two.

I would think things likely dont print one at a time. But i dont know how much concurrent printing they do...

But what i meant by useless is that.for the star wars books they havent been being very good.

Huh, would you look at that.

A whole bunch of books just went to the printer. None of them were the new announcements. That's...huh?

19 minutes ago, Absol197 said:

Huh, would you look at that.

A whole bunch of books just went to the printer. None of them were the new announcements. That's...huh?

Probably the backlog of reprints.

17 hours ago, themensch said:

My money is on day after tomorrow, no whammies.

I was actually thinking that it would be at the edge of tomorrow.

3 hours ago, Shlambate said:

Probably the backlog of reprints.

Yeah, probably. But it's a bit frustrating. Although we are getting a new book next week, so maybe look on the bright side ?

A lot of pre-order tags so I assume they have Un-F-ed the shipping log jam.