Okay, unless we get a new announcement today, we will officially have a new record for the longest time a single line has gone between announcements. Currently the record is 236 days. Staying tomorrow, Edge is going to push it to 237 and counting.

My feeling is that it'll stop somewhere around 245, so not much further to go, but still. Not a fun record to break .

However, good news with the bad, Forged in Battle should start shipping tomorrow!

Thursdays is when they do star wars news usually.

It's sort of a metaphor! It means that the proscribed average "On the Boat" time has passed, and we're still not shipping yet!

...wait, that's a bad thing, why am I using exclamation points?

Oh good (sort of). I was worried that you had information about a ship full of FFG books having sunk somewhere in the Pacific.

...

Friends, it is with a heavy heart that I must officially move my prediction for Forged in Battle back. I would greatly prefer to move it back only one week, but based on the behavior of the TFA Beginners' Game, I'm currently moving it back two.

Hopefully it's start shipping on Wednesday the 3rd for an August 18 release, the higher-probability scenario is that it'll start shipping on the 10th for a August 25 release.

I'm sorry my friends, I have failed you!

EDIT: The first post has been updated.

I'm sorry my friends, I have failed you!

Expect a PM from Lord Vader.

NNNOOOOOOOoooooooo...!

Hello again everyone. I have, through exploration of new avenues of data, discovered something new to share with you, with interesting implications.

I have been studying the product codes attached to everything that has thus far been released and/or announced, and I have found some interesting patterns. For those of you who are unaware, the product codes are the little letter/number combinations that are listed underneath each item on the “Products” page. They are either “SWExx,” “SWAxx,” or “SWFxx,” with the “xx” replaced with a two-digit number for where in the official sequence the product fits. “SWE,” obviously, is for Edge of the Empire products, “SWA” for Age of Rebellion, and “SWF” for Force and Destiny. The various card decks have the prefix “u” before everything else but otherwise are still part of their respective lines, and the Adversary decks use the universal “uSWR” tag.

So, now that we know what we’re looking at, let’s dig deeper and see what this can tell us. I started with Edge, and a very clear pattern emerged.

The Edge product codes are organized as follows: the first four are, in order, the Beginner Game, the Core Rulebook, the Game Master’s Kit, and the Star Wars Roleplaying Dice.

Following these four, we have the Edge adventures and supplements, in the order we’re familiar with: Beyond the Rim, Enter the Unknown, Suns of Fortune, et cetera (SWE05 through SWE14).

After the books, we go to the specialization decks from the CRB (SWE20 through SWE38), then following those the specialization decks from the career supplements, along with the “Signature Abilities” decks (SWE39 through SWE 54). This last group follows the pattern “Spec > Spec > Spec > Signature Abilities.”

However, looking closer at the numbers, we see a couple interesting things. First off, assuming that the pattern of books is meant to hold (which it appears it is), we have our unknown region book (SWE15), followed by our long-awaited Bounty Hunter book (SWE16), and then we have three additional products (SWE 17, 18, and 19) before we get to the original specialization decks. So what could those be? It’s a mystery, but we can guess that it was all planned out in advance, because while I haven’t yet determined exactly when the specialization decks were first announced, it was fairly early in the development of the line, so they had to have left those three slots open for a reason.

Also, looking at the original order of the product numbers for the specialization decks, we see something odd. They’re grouped by career, not alphabetically by spec name, but the careers aren’t ordered by career name, either. The CRB specialization decks follow this pattern:

Explorer Specs;

Hired Gun Specs;

Colonist Specs;

Smuggler Specs;

Technician Specs;

Bounty Hunter Specs;

Force-Sensitive Exile.

Look familiar? It should – that’s the order in which the different career books were released. If the other two lines follow the same pattern, there’s some interesting data to gleaned there!

So, let’s look at Age. Although there are some changes, things are organized fairly similarly: the first three are the Beginner Game, the CRB, and the Game Master’s Kit. SWA04 is Onslaught at Arda I, because that was the first book and the dice are already taken care of by Edge 04. However, then we go straight to the CRB specs (SWA04 through SWA24). The pattern is as follows:

Recruit;

Ace Specs;

Commander Specs;

Diplomat Specs;

Engineer Specs*;

Soldier Specs;

Spy Specs;

Force-Sensitive Emergent.

We can see the echo of the actual career-book release schedule there (Commander and Diplomat are flipped, as are Soldier and Engineer [maybe]), but it’s not exact. So let’s look at the actual books and see what they tell us.

The product codes continue with the actual books, but in another change, the four product codes after a career book are reserved for the three new spec decks and the signature abilities deck. For instance, the first book after the F-S Emergent deck is Stay on Target , as expected (SWA25). But SWA 26 to 29 are for the three new Ace specializations and the Ace Signature Abilities deck. That’s fine, great, we know the pattern. So continuing with that knowledge, the “official” AoR book release order so far is:

Stay on Target;

Strongholds of Resistance;

Desperate Allies;

Lead By Example;

???;

Forged in Battle.

Two things jump out: first, there’s a mystery book at SWA41, that was queued up to be released before FiB, but hasn’t been. Second, we can see that, unlike Edge, the book haven’t been released in the order FFG originally anticipated - Desperate Allies was both announced and released before Strongholds, and the Mystery Book (likely an Adventure) is still MIA. This lends credence to Marcy's theory that they might be choosing to prioritize career books, although it might just be that, like with Strongholds, FiB was just ready before the Mystery Book was.

Finally, we can confirm that, for Age at least, the numbering order of the specialization decks is similar, but not necessarily the same as, the expected order of releasing career books. This means that the Engineer is likely to be the next Age career, with the Spy unfortunately last. Not guaranteed that’s the official order, nor that that’ll be the actual announcement/release order, but the odds are shifted by this information.

So where does that put Force and Destiny? Let’s take a look. Looking at the product codes there, Force follows, almost exactly, the same pattern as Age did. The first three are the same, but the first actual book ( Chronicles of the Gatekeeper ) was moved down to be below the CRB spec decks, not above it. Interestingly, however, SWF04 is blank. So there’s some other product that goes there that we’re still expecting. What could it be? Not sure…

So, looking at the order of the spec decks. This did not make me happy:

Guardian Specs;

Warrior Specs;

Sentinel Specs;

Seeker Specs;

Consular Specs;

Mystic Specs.

… …Yeah.

"But," you might say, "while it’s similar- ish , it’s not quite as close as the order of Age specs was, so maybe things are just more mixed up now!" No such luck – looking at the book numbers, the official order is as follows:

Keeping the Peace;

Nexus of Power;

Endless Vigil;

???;

???;

Savage Spirits.

Savage Spirits was released out of order, the first time a career book has been. There are two mystery books (one career, one non-career that is likely an adventure) in the middle between Endless Vigil and Savage Spirits. My guess is that it follows the Age order, so it goes Endless Vigil > Career > Adventure > Savage Spirits. However, the spec decks say Guardian is 1, Seeker is 4, which matched with the career books. In between the two we have the Warrior and Sentinel, and we know that Endless Vigil is in between the two as well, meaning that the unknown career book at SWF35 is likely the Warrior book.

Meaning the order of the final two careers is likely to be the Consular followed by…the Mystic.

Now, of course, they released WAAAY out of order on this one so nothing to say that they won’t do so again, but still very disheartening for me and the small community of Mystic fans.

Okay, I hope you enjoyed! Time to go cry in a corner…

* The Engineer is a bit weird (seriously, Age? Seriously?) in that the Saboteur spec deck is before all the Diplomat spec decks, but the other two are after it...

EDIT: For those of you who are interested, here are the full lists of product announcements with their codes so far:

EDGE OF THE EMPIRE

AGE OF REBELLION

FORCE AND DESTINY

EDIT 2: Using this new information, I'm fairly confident in predicting the next career books for each line will be:

EDGE: Bounty Hunter;

AGE: Engineer, Spy;

FORCE: Warrior, Consular, Mystic.

That is some impressive analysis work, absol.

My inner nerd approves +10.

We don't take kindly to INNER nerds 'round these parts!

Outer nerds or get out!

If you're posting on a message board for a Star Wars RPG face up to the facts, there's no "inner" to your nerd.

Okay friends, so that you can see where I'm coming from, here's a list of the day of the month on which all books were announced. You'll see that there's a definite bias towards the beginning of the month, which is why we should expect any announcements we get to come in the first two weeks:

Try the same setup, but just with the month. See if there is a bias towards months either at the beginning or the end of a quarter.

Tried it already, and it wasn’t quite as interesting. The problem is that there are fewer levels of differentiation, making it harder for patterns to form. But since you requested:

A couple interesting things do present themselves: the Beginning of the year and the middle of the year seem to have higher concentrations of books. Additionally, Edge seems to prefer second-half announcements while the other two lines prefer first-half announcements.

Any new announcements for the big things will surely happen next week during GenCon, thats when they love announcing big things for the RPG, and thats the beginning of the month so fits well within your predictions.

Tried it already, and it wasn’t quite as interesting. The problem is that there are fewer levels of differentiation, making it harder to for patterns to form. But since you requested:

Month (#) – Books

Jan (2) – Edge of the Empire Core Rulebook , Savage Spirits

Feb (3) - Age of Rebellion Core Rulebook , Desperate Allies , Force and Destiny Core Rulebook

Mar (1) - Strongholds of Resistance

Apr (2) - Onslaught at Arda I , Chronicles of the Gatekeeper

May (2) - Far Horizons , Forged in Battle

Jun (1) - Beyond the Rim

Jul (4) - Enter the Unknown , Mask of the Pirate Queen , Keeping the Peace, Endless Vigil

Aug (1) - Stay on Target

Sep (2) - Suns of Fortune , Lords of Nal Hutta

Oct (2) - Dangerous Covenants , Lead by Example

Nov (2) - Fly Casual , Nexus of Power

Dec (2) - The Jewel of Yavin , Special Modifications

A couple interesting things do present themselves: the Beginning of the year and the middle of the year seem to have higher concentrations of books. Additionally, Edge seems to prefer second-half announcements while the other two lines prefer first-half announcements.

Yeah, looks pretty evenly distributed throughout the year.

Any new announcements for the big things will surely happen next week during GenCon, thats when they love announcing big things for the RPG, and thats the beginning of the month so fits well within your predictions.

I remember last year there were opportunities to announce RPG stuff; Star Wars Celebration (announcements for everything but the RPG), May the Fourth (announcements for everything but the RPG), Revenge of the Fifth (I don't remember them adding anything for this), GenCon (announcements for everything but the RPG), Force Friday (Announcements for everything but the RPG). So do not expect them to announce anything for the RPG at GenCon. They announce RPG stuff away from the opportunities that will gain it recognition outside of our small community. If it is a big event for games, or for Star Wars, they hide this system like it is a Red-Headed step-child. They do tend to like to announce things 2-3 weeks ahead of an event, but never during it.

I would expect an announcement AFTER GenCon as by that time any media that is covering that event will be long gone and not really caring about it.

Hmm, as I recall The Force Awakens Beginner game was announced on May the Fourth. And I'd say it's the teesniest bit of a stretch to say nothing is ever announced at GenCon, considering every CRB has been announced there.

Overall I give it a 2 trolls out of a possible 10.

Point of contention: the CRBs were not announced at the various GenCons, the Beta books were.

Other than that, your point stands .

Hmm, as I recall The Force Awakens Beginner game was announced on May the Fourth. And I'd say it's the teesniest bit of a stretch to say nothing is ever announced at GenCon, considering every CRB has been announced there.

Overall I give it a 2 trolls out of a possible 10.

I am pretty sure I said "last year" not "this year" but you are perfectly okay to read it wrong if you choose to.

• https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/?page=48 This is the week of May the 4th 2015
• https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/?page=37 Or this, which is the week of GenCon 2015.

No need to turn this into a fight (as you tried to with the troll insult) instead see that I was trying to mention that thinking that because there is an event, that somehow that means a FFG announcement goes 100% against what FFG has done in the past.

Hi all,

I'm going to try and preempt a possible flame war because I don't want this thread to get locked.

The electronic text medium amplifies perception of insult largely because people can't hear your tone of voice.I'm sure that klakor didn't intend for his post to be taken as a troll. And sonofabith was intending to respond with far more humor than insult, because "2 trolls out of a possible 10" is a really low troll rating if you thinking about it and probably means something like "you said a very controversial statement which while not offensive but by its content (as opposed to intent) is inviting someone to make a counter statement"

But because of the medium Klakor took to be more insulting than humorous, which we can all see how originally innocent or mostly innocent comments devolve into a flame ware and locked threads and grudges, and nobody needs or wants that. So in conclusion

"Can't we all just get along?"

Huh. The Jewel of Yavin just went to "Awaiting Reprint" the moment it went out of stock, while Mask of the Pirate Queen has been out of stock for near a month at least and hasn't been queued up yet.

I have no idea what this is telling us about the profitability of adventure books. Maybe Mask just doesn't sell, but the other two adventures do?

Any ideas?

EDIT: Also, OggDude, I see you reading my thread! I may not ever be able to beat you for the title of Most Obsessive Star Wars RPG Nerd of the Forums, but I'm trying to give you a run for your money !

Maybe Mask has not gone to reprint because it is the latest adventure so distributors and stores still have copies lying around for sale.

Historically RPG adventures are usually the worst selling books because they are targeted for gamemasters but not players.

Entirely possible. The fact that adventures sell less because of the more focused target market has been mentioned here before, I was simple confused as to why the other two Edge adventures would be queued for reprint immediately whilst Mask was not. The fact that it's the most recent one and/or retailer still have plenty in stock is definitely a possibility.

Also, with GenCon upon us and my prediction date for the next Edge announcement (Thursday, August 4) forthcoming, I thought it might be good to review where the numbers stand with regards to Edge books.

There are two major kinds of line-specific "gaps" that I track: the length of time that the entire line has been without an upcoming product and the absolute length of time between announcements.

So, the first one, time with no upcoming products. Between all three lines, this has happened 9 times (5 Edge, 3 Age, 1 Force). The shortest such gap has been the 8 days between Onslaught at Arda I's release and the announcement of Stay on Target , the average time across all three lines is 58.78 days, and the longest such delay has been with Edge, the 133 days between the release of Fly Casual and Mask of the Pirate Queen .

However, Edge is poised to break that record: as of today (08/01/2016), Edge has been without an upcoming product for 130 days. If my prediction is right, we'll end up tying the record at 133 days; if not, we've broken another awful record and Edge has been without an upcoming product for well over a third of a year.

The second type, absolute time between (line-specific) announcements, is also indicating something has to give soon. The shortest gap of this nature is the 26 days between Desperate Allies ' announcement and the announcement of Strongholds of Resistance (incidentally, as proven above, the first time a book was announced out of order based on the line's product codes). The mean length of time is 114.21 days, and Edge's current gap is the record holder, with 242 days and counting between Special Modifications ' announcement and the announcement of our next book.

As a brief aside, as a measure of the length of time between mixed-line announcements, we're only currently 27 days from the announcement of Endless Vigil , and the mean length between announcements irrespective of line is 53.92 days. So the 30 days we'd be at on Thursday would be below average, but it would still be within a standard deviation of the mean, so not too incredible unlikely looking solely at that.

But as you can see, even though the time between Edge books (and all books in general, in fact) has been slowly increasing, the fact that we're further than we've ever been indicates that, if they want to keep Edge alive, they'll need to announce something very soon. And what better time to do it than at GenCon?

At least, that's the hope . Time will tell!

So now that we have all these statistics, are we going to set up a gambling ring? I'm asking for a friend.

You would sully my beautiful, pure numbers for something so crude as...gambling?

Heresy! Blasphemy! You, sir, are dead to me, and were clearly unfit for the captaincy in life!