Thanks for getting us back on statistical-based predictions and outcomes!

How long has it been since Endless Vigil has first been put on the boat?

Let's see...

Endless Vigil went On the Boat on August 24, so it's been 19 days. Currently I'm expecting it to start shipping on October 4, so it'll have been 41 days total.

Although that expectation might be a bit generous, given that both the TFA Beginner Game and Forged in Battle took 8 and 7 weeks, respectively.

So your fastest prediction is probably 1 or 2 weeks faster than the last few books? So would it be more like 7 weeks +/- 1 weeks?

Wow... We got the expansion for TFA Beginner game today...Which has been available since it came out...Where is the next book announcement for one of the 3 lines...

Wow... We got the expansion for TFA Beginner game today...Which has been available since it came out...Where is the next book announcement for one of the 3 lines...

Right now, actually!

WHAT https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/2016/9/14/no-disintegrations/

WOO-HOO!!!1!

That took WAY too long, but I'm so excited!

Okay, okay, focus Phee...Ahem: so, initial prediction is for a January 19, 2017 release, although since the article mentions that it's expected for Q4, and the initial predictions are always a bit further out to be conservative...

Also interesting to note, this is SWE16, meaning we now have a new Mystery Book at SWE15. Our final Edge Region book is still out there, waiting...

Also, side note: How rude is it that they gave us the name of one of the specs and one of the Signature Abilities, but they didn't mention the others! Come on, all or nothin' over here!

Clearly they wanted to test you a little more by seeing if you could predict the specs and other ability

WOO-HOO!!!1!That took WAY too long, but I'm so excited!Okay, okay, focus Phee...Ahem: so, initial prediction is for a January 19, 2017 release, although since the article mentions that it's expected for Q4, and the initial predictions are always a bit further out to be conservative...Also interesting to note, this is SWE16, meaning we now have a new Mystery Book at SWE15. Our final Edge Region book is still out there, waiting...Also, side note: How rude is it that they gave us the name of one of the specs and one of the Signature Abilities, but they didn't mention the others! Come on, all or nothin' over here!

Isnt january Q1?

WOO-HOO!!!1!That took WAY too long, but I'm so excited!Okay, okay, focus Phee...Ahem: so, initial prediction is for a January 19, 2017 release, although since the article mentions that it's expected for Q4, and the initial predictions are always a bit further out to be conservative...Also interesting to note, this is SWE16, meaning we now have a new Mystery Book at SWE15. Our final Edge Region book is still out there, waiting...Also, side note: How rude is it that they gave us the name of one of the specs and one of the Signature Abilities, but they didn't mention the others! Come on, all or nothin' over here!

Isnt january Q1?

Hence

so, initial prediction is for a January 19, 2017 release, although since the article mentions that it's expected for Q4, and the initial predictions are always a bit further out to be conservative

WHAT https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/2016/9/14/no-disintegrations/

Man, although that was my favorite title for the book, I never thought they’d actually re-use a title that has already been put into print by another SWRPG publisher.

Cool!

No Disintegrations is the obvious title for a Star Wars book about Bounty Hunters. A generic book about bounty hunters would be titled Wanted: Dead or Alive.

I wonder what SWE16 will be...

I wonder what SWE16 will be...

No Disintegrations.

So, who wants more needlessly complicated over-analysis! Ooh! Ooh! I do, I do!

Taking a look at the number of announcements across all three lines over time, this is the third time we've gotten three new book announcements in a single calendar quarter. The first time was Q1 2015, and the second was Q4 2015. Both of those times, the following quarter had only a single new book announcement.

For yearly totals, 2013 and 2014 had 6 total announcements each, while 2015 had 9. The average of that is 7, and currently for 2016 we're at 5; so to get to the average we'd need 2 more, but I'm thinking that it's more likely that 2015 was the fluke, and we'll only get 1 additional announcement in 2016.

But wait! What do I think it could be? A Force and Destiny book, that's what! And I'll also go so far as to predict the missing career book at SWF35, which I'm certain is the Warrior book! and when might this occur? Well, I'll predict that, too! October 12th or 13th is my guess! By that time we'll already be over the average for Force books, and if they're trying to keep the three lines as even as they can, they need a new Force book soon.

Plus, with the announcement of No Disintegrations over whatever is sitting at SWE15, that tells me that Marcy was (mostly) correct and they are prioritizing career books over other things.

I think with the movies out, potentially live action shows in the pipe, the pressure is on to tighten up the original game line, meaning we will see the career books knocked out. I'm sure the Mouse is going to want all secondary content from licensees focused on promoting the new movie/TV content going forward.

but I'm thinking that it's more likely that 2015 was the fluke

That whole "first star wars movie in 13 years" thing probably amped things up a bit.

That may have had something to do with it, yes !

So after force book you think region book for edge?

I wonder what SWE16 will be...

No Disintegrations.

I meant SWE15 oops

I figured .

You know, the fact that No Disintegrations has not appeared on the Upcoming page yet bothers me a little. While I'm sure it's just because they haven't gotten around to it, most new announcements are up there same day. My Brain can't help but wonder if there's some sinister plot going on here...

Nah, F&D wasn't on there for days when it was already released at Gencon.

Okay, something's definitely going on! There's not been a single book announced since I started tracking data that was not up on the Upcoming page the same day as the announcement. Now it's been a week and we still don't see No Disintegrations up there.

I can see two options: one, they weren't as ready as we might hope and the book is going to be delayed a little longer while they catch up. But I don't think this is the case, because Savage Spirits was showing as In Development for over two months, so that seems like the MO when things are taking longer then expected.

I have a suspicion that we're not seeing it because the current status is something like On the Boat , and they don't want to ruin the surprise that it's coming out real soon...

Okay, something's definitely going on! There's not been a single book announced since I started tracking data that was not up on the Upcoming page the same day as the announcement. Now it's been a week and we still don't see No Disintegrations up there.I can see two options: one, they weren't as ready as we might hope and the book is going to be delayed a little longer while they catch up. But I don't think this is the case, because Savage Spirits was showing as In Development for over two months, so that seems like the MO when things are taking longer then expected.I have a suspicion that we're not seeing it because the current status is something like On the Boat , and they don't want to ruin the surprise that it's coming out real soon...

Something like that would certainly go hand-in-hand with the Q4 date.

And maybe they're doing it to mess with you, too.