The Spy needs a combative spec? That's pretty much all the Infiltrator does is combat. Frenzied Attack, Natural Brawler, Dodge, (Improved) Stunning Blow - how does that not count as a combative spec? Also, while the Assassin would likely fit, as I said no Career has more than 2 repeats, which is the way it should be. I would be very, very surprised if they gave the Spy the Assassin as well.

I do agree that they need a social monster spec, and probably a master of disguise type, which could potentially be the same spec, although maybe they should be separate? I'm not sure. But yeah, the Spy does not lack for a combat spec at all.

Sorry; I should've said a shooter spec. Bond shoots people plenty of folks with his various Walthers, and Jahan Cross is pretty handy with a blaster; none of the existing specializations even have Ranged [Light] as a career skill.

And I always forget that Infiltrator handles the hand-to-hand stuff; "Infiltrator" doesn't sound like the name of a krav maga-esque expert to me.

Okay, since it looks like Endless Vigil isn't getting on the boat anytime soon-ish, I'm forced to move back my prediction. I was assuming four weeks at the printer - Forged in Battle was three weeks and Savage Spirits was four, so I figured since they were trying to rush this one for a Q3 release that made sense - but it didn't come to pass. We're 32 days at the printer and counting.

I'm gonna move it back two weeks, and hopefully I'll be able to move it up again if we get on the boat sometime this week. New prediction is currently October 27.

The Spy needs a combative spec? That's pretty much all the Infiltrator does is combat. Frenzied Attack, Natural Brawler, Dodge, (Improved) Stunning Blow - how does that not count as a combative spec? Also, while the Assassin would likely fit, as I said no Career has more than 2 repeats, which is the way it should be. I would be very, very surprised if they gave the Spy the Assassin as well.

I do agree that they need a social monster spec, and probably a master of disguise type, which could potentially be the same spec, although maybe they should be separate? I'm not sure. But yeah, the Spy does not lack for a combat spec at all.

Sorry; I should've said a shooter spec. Bond shoots people plenty of folks with his various Walthers, and Jahan Cross is pretty handy with a blaster; none of the existing specializations even have Ranged [Light] as a career skill.

And I always forget that Infiltrator handles the hand-to-hand stuff; "Infiltrator" doesn't sound like the name of a krav maga-esque expert to me.

You don't need the skill as a Career skill to take ranks in it. And in the long run, it doesn't cost that much more (25 XP over 5 Ranks is only 2 sessions (about 4 hours per session) worth of XP)

Pick up Sharpshooter for your Spy. It costs 10 XP more than a career spec, but it's very nice for shooting people.

Then I defer to your superior expertise!

Mathematics is not my field, and I remember very little of the probability I learned in school.

So if you want to run the numbers too and give us a more mathematically accurate prediction, please do!

Because from what you've described, I wouldn't know how to log data or interpret the results of a Poisson distribution...I always knew I hated fish...

EDIT: However...and bear in mind that this is just me researching the Poisson distribution for the first time so I may not have the full grasp of it yet, but I notice something immediately that seems to be a problem: a Poisson distribution seems to require that the events be independent, and not influenced by each other.

The announcement of books is not independent - as time passes, a new announcement becomes more and more likely because the people behind the scenes want to keep their product lines alive. Sure, the Edge line has been slowing down, but a given stretch of days around now have a much higher probability of a new event than the stretch of days in early April, because it's been much longer since the announcement of a new book. That's not independent at all. At least, I don't think it is. And even across lines the events are not independent, because I'm sure the RPG team at FFG is trying to put reasonable space between releases so that they don't burn through people's pocketbooks too fast. While they're separate product lines, they know that most people are buying all three.

Just my initial observation. *reads more...*

EDIT 2: It appears a Poisson distribution also requires events to have a "constant rate," which, while I'm not certain exactly what definition of "rate" they're using, seems to not be applicable to this sort of data, either...

For instance, there is a much higher probability of an announcement within the first half of a month (91.67% of books announced on the 1st-16th) than the second half (8.33% announced on the 17th-31st). That's what they mean by rate, right?

Am I missing something? Let me know, Kallabecca!

Constant rate would be like putting out 9 books a year +/- 3 books. Then determine the probability of a new book being announced given that rate and how many announcements have been made. The spread is that they might only announce 6 books in a year and that has a > 0% chance of happening.

You might want to look into programs like R that help with doing this kind of math (since I doubt you have SPSS or other non-free package).

Here's a tutorial that might help.

http://www.r-tutor.com/elementary-statistics/probability-distributions/poisson-distribution

Also, there's a difference between their desire to announce a new product and actually doing it. When they announce one or more books is relatively independent of each other other than they probably have people tied up for all 3 lines (only so many editors and layout designers on staff means only so many books can get through).

Okay, here it is! I'm going full-on, all in, and many other high-risk gambling metaphors!

I'm going to call the order in which we will see the remaining career books announced! Just remember, you heard it here first, ladies and gentlemen!

the order will be...

What do I think my chances are? I'm not going to say! But this is my big call!

You really think two more career books before Bounty Hunter? I can already hear the crying.

I do, and I'll tell you why:

First off, I'm fairly positive that the next Edge book we're getting will be our unknown region book. Then we're gonna have another ridiculously long gap after it's released before the next Edge announcement, which with be the Bounty Hunter.

They skipped a career book in the Force order, and with Age they rushed to four career books before putting out an adventure. They can easily do the same thing with Force, putting out the skipped career book then the skipped adventure as the next two. The skipped career is pretty likely to be the Warrior book. I think it's next because we just got Friends Like These announced, so we're likely to get a Force book before another Age book.

Engineer is my guess for the next Age career (based on the product codes, as usual). This one is the one I'm iffy about, but I think that they'll announce at least two Age books in between the Edge Region Book and the Bounty Hunter book, so whether they do the next Age region before the Engineer, or if they do the Engineer directly after FLT shouldn't matter.

Then we (finally!) get to the Bounty Hunter. We may even get the Consular before the Bounty Hunter as well, but I think that's less likely. The idea there would be they release the final career book for each line roughly simultaneously, but that would be stretching the Edge line super, SUPER thin for over a year (like, thinner than it is right now), so that's why I think it's less likely.

You really think two more career books before Bounty Hunter? I can already hear the crying.

If Edge of the Empire wraps up too soon, it may look like the product line is done. I think 'Friends like These' is a nod to those patiently awaiting Bounty Hunter goodness, so they tossed in Fett's adoptive people.

You really think two more career books before Bounty Hunter? I can already hear the crying.

If Edge of the Empire wraps up too soon, it may look like the product line is done. I think 'Friends like These' is a nod to those patiently awaiting Bounty Hunter goodness, so they tossed in Fett's adoptive people.

A line is only as done as they will it to be. I agree, though, that perception is reality, so if they have any intentions with Edge post... what should I call it? He's no Good to Me Dead. Post He's no Good to Me Dead, then a quick announcement for another adventure of sector book would be prudent.

And I mean quick.

This is why I would have preferred to wait for the Force Awakens Boxed Set...it'd be an after Edge of the Empire product that still nods to the SWRPG gaming experience. If we accept how RPGs are FFG' least profitable products, I want them kickin' out the full line before other variables (like a poor quarterly report handed off to Uncle Mickey) reduce our chances of seeing the Bounty Hunter book or other good, quality content we expect from FFG.

Oddly, with enough fanfare and announcements, wouldn't we predict more sales of the Bounty Hunter sourcebook over...hmmm...what other career sourcebook might draw more attention than Bounty Hunters? Fett was so popular that he was retroactively added to more movie scenes. If he had appeared at the end of the movies, with no other promises of more content with him visible or even named, would Fett have been as popular? Will waiting for the Bounty Hunter book boost sales that lead into...what, exactly? Sure, sales of formerly produced content is viable, but does FFG have a good history about offering re-prints?

A line is only as done as they will it to be. I agree, though, that perception is reality, so if they have any intentions with Edge post... what should I call it? He's no Good to Me Dead. Post He's no Good to Me Dead, then a quick announcement for another adventure of sector book would be prudent.

And I mean quick.

In order to prove precisely how nerdy I am, I'm going to bring up that neither "He's No Good to Me Dead," nor "No Disintegrations" are possible titles for the Bounty Hunter Book. The previously mentioned "Blood Money" is a viable candidate, but not what I think the actual title will be.

To whit, I present: there are two main naming schemes for career books: Verb [preposition/article] Noun or Adjective Noun . Five out of the twelve currently known career books follow the first pattern (41.67%) - Enter the Unknown, Forged in Battle, Keeping the Peace, Lead by Example, Stay on Target . Six of the twelve follow the second pattern (50.00%) - Dangerous Covenants, Desperate Allies, Endless Vigil, Far Horizons, Savage Spirits, Special Modifications .

The only one that doesn't fit into those two patterns is Fly Casual , which goes Verb Adverb , but it does fit into the two-word style of the second group and is a well-loved direct quote from the movies, so we can give it a pass on not being exact.

This means that the Bounty Hunter book, and the other unannounced ones, are unlikely to stray from this pattern, as FFG seems to be clearly trying to create a consistent naming convention. Both "No Disintegrations" and "He's No Good to Me Dead" don't fit. "No Disintegrations" is better, but it's still too far off for me to find it likely.

Also, for those who want to join me in the deepest end of the nerd-pool, there are naming conventions for the other book types, too! All region books so far have been Noun of Noun - Lords of Nal Hutta, Nexus of Power, Strongholds of Resistance, Suns of Fortune . So my previous suggestion of "Scum and Villainy," would be a break from that pattern, albeit a small one, making it less likely.

The Adventure Modules also tend to follow the pattern Noun of the Noun - Mask of the Pirate Queen, Chronicles of the Gatekeeper . Since this is essentially Noun [prepositional phrase ending in a noun] , that also fits Friends Like These, The Jewel of Yavin and Onslaught at Arda I . Beyond the Rim is the only one that doesn't fit that general pattern so far.

Okay, super-nerd mode deactivated!

Very interesting with your predictions on book order why do you think Warrior is next besides the product codes, is it really the way the talent decks were released that keys you in to which class gets their book when?

Yes, it really is just the product codes.

There's plenty of information there if you know how to sift it out. The product codes for the spec decks aren't in alphabetical order by spec, they're grouped by career. And the career grouping aren't alphabetical by career or even by first-spec's first letter. Since this order was established by people, there's a reason for it. That reason is either: A) It's random!; or B) There's another purpose behind it.

Because of the very low variance between the spec deck career order and the book career order, I feel that it's incredibly unlikely for the answer to be A. So the odds are definitely heightened for certain books to be in certain places in the order.

Now, my "final" prediction was predicated on the assumption that they won't release career books intra-line out of the product code order. This assumption is not guaranteed because they have done so before, but I feel it's still a strong assumption nonetheless.

EDIT: As an example of how tight things are between the product code order and the spec deck order, I'll give you some figures:

The maximum variance possible for a series of six books in the setup we have is 11.67, if we were to get an order like this (using Edge as our example):

Book > Spec Deck

Explorer > Bounty Hunter

Hired Gun > Technician

Colonist > Smuggler

Smuggler > Colonist

Technician > Hired Gun

Bounty Hunter > Explorer

Currently, since all Edge books match up, it has a variance of 0; Age has two options remaining, either Engineer > Spy or Spy > Engineer. Engineer > Spy would have a variance of 0.67, while Spy > Engineer would have one of 1.33. So at the very worst, it's barely more than 10% the maximum.

Since Force already has two exact matches and a -1, we're still not seeing any big variance. At this point, with two-thirds of the books released and nothing bigger than 1...the odds are stacking up in support of the theory very quickly.

Your verb-fu is good, so I offer another consideration about naming conventions used for books:

Given that any one book title is less than five words, remove prepositional phrases, and most everything is going to have a noun or verb and at least one modifier...except 'Scum and Villainy.'

I DO like the Blank OF Blank for location settings. For me, these books offer the best material with new species and gear. While adding new SigAbils is keen, nobody in my playgroup has that much experience, nor will they for quite some time. Force Powers are cool, but if we get ones like we saw in Chronicles of the Gatekeeper, please stop- they're too situational and therefore weak. If FFG wants us to develop our OWN Force Powers, then I can accept it and would like more guidelines and comparisons.

About how many more Sector Books might we see? Is there a logical breakdown of places beside Tatooine that deserve more detail and splatbook?

I think between the anthology movies and the TV shows we keep hearing about, we will likely see the game move in that direction once the primary line of tomes is wrapped up.

What is with you and trying to get me to guess fluff ? I do the numbers , not the lore!

I'm fairly certain we'll end up with 3 sector books per line. My guesses are:

Edge:

Corellian Sector (Confirmed: Suns of Fortune )

Hutt Space (Confirmed: Lords of Nal Hutta )

Shadowports

Age:

Rebel Bases (Confirmed: Strongholds of Resistance )

Imperial Centers

???

Force:

Vergences (Confirmed: Nexus of Power )

Native Force Traditions

Jedi + Sith Worlds

As alternative to a Shadowports book, we might get another focused on a specific sector, likely either Bothan Space or the Corporate Sector.

This is why I would have preferred to wait for the Force Awakens Boxed Set...it'd be an after Edge of the Empire product that still nods to the SWRPG gaming experience. If we accept how RPGs are FFG' least profitable products, I want them kickin' out the full line before other variables (like a poor quarterly report handed off to Uncle Mickey) reduce our chances of seeing the Bounty Hunter book or other good, quality content we expect from FFG.

You do realize that the license for the SW stuff that FFG has isn't just for the RPG, but for all the Star Wars stuff they're pumping out. Mickey doesn't give one r***s **s about the profitability of FFG in regards to the license, only that Mickey is getting their fee and that FFG is meeting the terms of the agreement (pumping out X amount of stuff over Y time).

WotC gave up the license partly because their parent, Hasbro, isn't use to dealing with such low volumes when it comes to sales. Same problem they've had with D&D since Hasbro bought them.

Based on these ideas, where might we expect Bith to show-up...Shadowports? I cannot see them in a Force-sensitive tradition, but then again, there really doesn't seem to be a rhyme or reason to adding whichever species to whatever books.

No idea. Species is my weak point, remember ? I'm pretty sure I've told you that at least three times now...

This is why I would have preferred to wait for the Force Awakens Boxed Set...it'd be an after Edge of the Empire product that still nods to the SWRPG gaming experience. If we accept how RPGs are FFG' least profitable products, I want them kickin' out the full line before other variables (like a poor quarterly report handed off to Uncle Mickey) reduce our chances of seeing the Bounty Hunter book or other good, quality content we expect from FFG.

You do realize that the license for the SW stuff that FFG has isn't just for the RPG, but for all the Star Wars stuff they're pumping out. Mickey doesn't give one r***s **s about the profitability of FFG in regards to the license, only that Mickey is getting their fee and that FFG is meeting the terms of the agreement (pumping out X amount of stuff over Y time).

WotC gave up the license partly because their parent, Hasbro, isn't use to dealing with such low volumes when it comes to sales. Same problem they've had with D&D since Hasbro bought them.

Yup, I do. How else would they be pumping out other stuff without legally crushing Cease and Desist letters?

I just wished you would have asked your question by presuming more competence from the author. I seriously disagree with what you write about Disney caring about their SW license, based on professional experience with Disney/Marvel.

No idea. Species is my weak point, remember ? I'm pretty sure I've told you that at least three times now...

Posed to the forum community, since people tend to reply to personal conversations...

Ah. Sorry .

A line is only as done as they will it to be. I agree, though, that perception is reality, so if they have any intentions with Edge post... what should I call it? He's no Good to Me Dead. Post He's no Good to Me Dead, then a quick announcement for another adventure of sector book would be prudent.And I mean quick.

In order to prove precisely how nerdy I am, I'm going to bring up that neither "He's No Good to Me Dead," nor "No Disintegrations" are possible titles for the Bounty Hunter Book. The previously mentioned "Blood Money" is a viable candidate, but not what I think the actual title will be.To whit, I present: there are two main naming schemes for career books: Verb [preposition/article] Noun or Adjective Noun . Five out of the twelve currently known career books follow the first pattern (41.67%) - Enter the Unknown, Forged in Battle, Keeping the Peace, Lead by Example, Stay on Target . Six of the twelve follow the second pattern (50.00%) - Dangerous Covenants, Desperate Allies, Endless Vigil, Far Horizons, Savage Spirits, Special Modifications .The only one that doesn't fit into those two patterns is Fly Casual , which goes Verb Adverb , but it does fit into the two-word style of the second group and is a well-loved direct quote from the movies, so we can give it a pass on not being exact.This means that the Bounty Hunter book, and the other unannounced ones, are unlikely to stray from this pattern, as FFG seems to be clearly trying to create a consistent naming convention. Both "No Disintegrations" and "He's No Good to Me Dead" don't fit. "No Disintegrations" is better, but it's still too far off for me to find it likely.Also, for those who want to join me in the deepest end of the nerd-pool, there are naming conventions for the other book types, too! All region books so far have been Noun of Noun - Lords of Nal Hutta, Nexus of Power, Strongholds of Resistance, Suns of Fortune . So my previous suggestion of "Scum and Villainy," would be a break from that pattern, albeit a small one, making it less likely.The Adventure Modules also tend to follow the pattern Noun of the Noun - Mask of the Pirate Queen, Chronicles of the Gatekeeper . Since this is essentially Noun [prepositional phrase ending in a noun] , that also fits Friends Like These, The Jewel of Yavin and Onslaught at Arda I . Beyond the Rim is the only one that doesn't fit that general pattern so far.Okay, super-nerd mode deactivated!

I'll go back to my previous suggestion, "Death Mark" (though maybe "Death Marks" is more consistent?).

It fits with the BH career because a Death Mark is a kill request for bounty hunters. It comes from a line in The Empire Strikes Back (Carlist Rieekan to Han Solo, "A death mark's not an easy thing to live with."). It's an adjective-noun combo. And it references Boba Fett's pursuit of Han Solo, who apparently had a death mark put on him by Jabba. (Though I'm not sure why Fett insisted on taking Han alive...)