Or you can get it for free from your local library, you cads!

My local library isn't open at 11:30 at night, unfortunately, which is when most of my movie emergencies tend to happen .

So, dumb statistics question, but are you basing your predictions off a Poisson distribution or are you trying to force this into something like a Gaussian distribution?

Neither, actually! I just use means and averages, along with straight counting.

I only buy shows or movies that I may want to watch again multiple times, and now it's only on iTunes since I can then watch it anywhere. We don't have a single spinning disk in our house at the moment! VR and kids may necessitate a change but for now stream/download is just fine.

I only buy shows or movies that I may want to watch again multiple times, and now it's only on iTunes since I can then watch it anywhere. We don't have a single spinning disk in our house at the moment! VR and kids may necessitate a change but for now stream/download is just fine.

Whenever possible, I get a combo pack with a digital code, as well. For those times that isn't an option, I've got software to rip my discs to iTunes format. Certainly a lifesaver for work trips. My iPad lasts through multiple flights on a single charge. My laptop died about 40 minutes into th DVD of Wrath of Khan once. That's when I made the change.

Okay, today we get to see if my predictions are worth anything.

Come on, Scum and Villainy ...it's got to be today...today or tomorrow, but it should be today...right?

So, dumb statistics question, but are you basing your predictions off a Poisson distribution or are you trying to force this into something like a Gaussian distribution?

Neither, actually! I just use means and averages, along with straight counting.

If you're doing what I think you're doing (subtracting the last date from the current items date to get a value, then taking the mean/variance for that list of numbers), that is forcing the data into a Gaussian distribution. Which for this kind of event isn't quite the right statistic to be using.

Random discrete time based events are a Poisson distribution. Where, given X amount of time (say 3 months, or 6 months) what is the probability of having N events occur during that time period. These are decaying exponential functions rather than a bell curve.

Then I defer to your superior expertise!

Mathematics is not my field, and I remember very little of the probability I learned in school.

So if you want to run the numbers too and give us a more mathematically accurate prediction, please do!

Because from what you've described, I wouldn't know how to log data or interpret the results of a Poisson distribution...I always knew I hated fish...

EDIT: However...and bear in mind that this is just me researching the Poisson distribution for the first time so I may not have the full grasp of it yet, but I notice something immediately that seems to be a problem: a Poisson distribution seems to require that the events be independent, and not influenced by each other.

The announcement of books is not independent - as time passes, a new announcement becomes more and more likely because the people behind the scenes want to keep their product lines alive. Sure, the Edge line has been slowing down, but a given stretch of days around now have a much higher probability of a new event than the stretch of days in early April, because it's been much longer since the announcement of a new book. That's not independent at all. At least, I don't think it is. And even across lines the events are not independent, because I'm sure the RPG team at FFG is trying to put reasonable space between releases so that they don't burn through people's pocketbooks too fast. While they're separate product lines, they know that most people are buying all three.

Just my initial observation. *reads more...*

EDIT 2: It appears a Poisson distribution also requires events to have a "constant rate," which, while I'm not certain exactly what definition of "rate" they're using, seems to not be applicable to this sort of data, either...

For instance, there is a much higher probability of an announcement within the first half of a month (91.67% of books announced on the 1st-16th) than the second half (8.33% announced on the 17th-31st). That's what they mean by rate, right?

Am I missing something? Let me know, Kallabecca!

In fact, maybe you can help me with something!

If I had X number of objects (say, I don't know, dice) and they could be one of three things, A, B, or C, what equation do I use to determine the number of possible ways they can be arranged, with a given value for the number of As, Bs, and Cs.

For instance, X=8, and I have 4 As, 3 Bs, and 1 C. How many ways can I arrange that? I'm calculating the odds of reaching a certain number of Force Points for a given Force Rating, and while brute forcing it works perfectly well for Force Ratings of 5 or lower, above 5 I'm having a hard time ensuring I get everything right. I know that the basic combination and permutation equations are not the ones I need, but I can't figure out what I do need to get it done...

In fact, maybe you can help me with something!If I had X number of objects (say, I don't know, dice) and they could be one of three things, A, B, or C, what equation do I use to determine the number of possible ways they can be arranged, with a given value for the number of As, Bs, and Cs.For instance, X=8, and I have 4 As, 3 Bs, and 1 C. How many ways can I arrange that? I'm calculating the odds of reaching a certain number of Force Points for a given Force Rating, and while brute forcing it works perfectly well for Force Ratings of 5 or lower, above 5 I'm having a hard time ensuring I get everything right.

Or I'm oversimplifying because not a math guy.

In fact, maybe you can help me with something!If I had X number of objects (say, I don't know, dice) and they could be one of three things, A, B, or C, what equation do I use to determine the number of possible ways they can be arranged, with a given value for the number of As, Bs, and Cs.For instance, X=8, and I have 4 As, 3 Bs, and 1 C. How many ways can I arrange that? I'm calculating the odds of reaching a certain number of Force Points for a given Force Rating, and while brute forcing it works perfectly well for Force Ratings of 5 or lower, above 5 I'm having a hard time ensuring I get everything right.

Hardly a math guy, myself, but I do support for calculators and train our new hires. We just went over this a few weeks ago in training class. If the order of your results doesn't matter, that's a simple combination probability. On our calculators, we'd use the nCr command this way: 8 nCr 3 (that's 8 items with 3 possible results, how many different combinations are there) with a result of 56. If the order does matter (like, say, results of a race), it's a permutation. With 8 nPr 3, the results are 336.

Example that's a bit easier:

I think it has to do with factorials, taking the larger factorial and dividing it by lesser ones based on the number of repeated results, but it still eludes me...

There are at least two or three dice calculation programs out there that can give you the exact probabilities. Unfortunately, the “Dice Probability Generator” by Litheon doesn’t calculate odds for Force dice, but there are others that I’m sure do.

Alternatively, you could just do a Monte Carlo simulation:

Do you really think anything other than the exact probabilities is going to satisfy me ?

The problem with most dice-probability programs is that they assume all values on the die have an equal probability, but that's not the case with a Force die. No single result has the same probability as any other result.

Also, I prefer to run the calculations myself. Another demand from my weird Brain.

Oh, and Kaosoe, with all due respect to Dr. Gottlieb, numbers are very much like the sidhe: they may not lie, but they sure as heck don't have to tell the truth ~

There's a 60% chance of getting 1 Force Point and a 40% chance of getting 2 when you roll a Force Dice... The rest is just meta game semantics

Have you met me? I mean, you've read through my thread here, right?

If there's anything I can exhaustively number-crunch, I'm going to do it! Not because I think it helps in play (see my signature for what I think is most useful in-game),but because they're numbers that are there . If they didn't want to be crunched, they shouldn't have decided to be mathematical constructs !

Lol very true. I'm quite good with most maths... Probability is not one of them.

Raw maximum shouldn't be too hard to calculate though. 30% chance of 2 LS pips, 10% chance of 2 DS pips, raise to the power of however many dice in the pool? (ie 0.3 x 0.3 x 0.3 = 0.027 x 100 = 2.7% chance of 6 LS pips on 3 force dice)

For more complex I assume Numbers/Exel have a function! IDK I'm useless with exact probabilities like I said.

Something to keep in mind that although RPGs are only 3% of the hobby market, there is a reason for this.

In a game like X-Wing, all participants need to purchase figures to make up their "army". In an RPG, the Game Master will most likely get as many books as they can get their hands on, and players may only get one or two of the career books - and they never need to purchase them again. So if a game group has (on average) 5 players and a GM, there are a lot of people playing, but not many buying.

The answer is to buy one of everything.

This is an interesting comparison. Taking "X-Wing vs SW RPG" as an example, we could estimate:

GM: 1x Core Rule Book @ $60 USD

Player 1: 1x Sorcebook @ $30 USD

Player 2: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Player 3: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Players 4-5 opt to either not buy books, or contribute a share of money to their friends who loan them books bought, above.

GM: 1x Adversary Deck @ 6 USD

GM: 2x Sourcebooks @ 2x $30 USD

GM: 1x GM Kit @ $20 USD

GM: 1x Dice @ $15 USD

Players: 1x Dice @ $15 USD, 1x ap @ $5 USD

-------------------------------------------------------------------$241 USD for GM and 5 players

What's it cost to build ONE X-Wing Army, assuming you make no changes to your pieces?

The cost of the army is not a good comparison. Using this is like saying that if you were playing Magic: The Gathering, you would only need to buy 1 starter deck - EVER!

Additionally, more product is release for X-Wing by a long shot than for the X-Wing.

You also have to look at the cost to sale ratio. Its a lot cheaper for FFG to produce a single miniature (even some of their bigger ones) than it is to produce one book. Miniatures also have wider appeal.

Do you really think anything other than the exact probabilities is going to satisfy me ?

Nope!

The problem with most dice-probability programs is that they assume all values on the die have an equal probability, but that's not the case with a Force die. No single result has the same probability as any other result.

Monte Carlo simulation will give you a reasonable approximation, because they simulate actually rolling the dice a large number of times. But it’s still just an approximation.

Good dice rolling programs (like the one Litheon wrote) will give you exact numbers, you just have to specify the precision to which they will show their calculations.

They’re not simulating anything, and they have already taken into account the exact contents of each face of each die, so they just have to do the math.

Which is a little harder than simple Permutations and Combinations, because of the way dice faces have values of different weights.

Also, I prefer to run the calculations myself. Another demand from my weird Brain.

Okay, well, if you’ve got to run the numbers yourself, then there’s nothing I can do to help you. I can point you at the code written by people like Litheon, but from there you’re on your own.

I don't need code, I need math! Yes, I realize that in many cases there is little difference, but still .

...And darn it all, I thought for sure it'd be today we'd get a new announcement. Oh well, we still have tomorrow, and actually this might be one of the rare times we get an announcement on a weekend. Well have to see.

If we do get an announcement tomorrow, I say that's close enough to claim I called it!

I believe FFG In-flight report is tomorrow.

I we don't see an announcement tomorrow, I wouldn't be too surprises.

If I recall, last year, the only RPG thing of note they mentioned during the in-flight report was that the "Circle is now complete" with regards to the F&D CRB release.

Well, pooh. I'm going to hold on to hope, though. Not much else we can do at this point, right?

Am I crazy to hope that they'll announce a new book that will be immediately available? I mean, I'm crazy even without hoping for that, but you know...

Oh it's still very possible. And I will be happy to have another book to look forward to.

Well, pooh. I'm going to hold on to hope, though. Not much else we can do at this point, right?

Am I crazy to hope that they'll announce a new book that will be immediately available? I mean, I'm crazy even without hoping for that, but you know...

If there was any book that needed no hype and could be dropped on our laps as a "SURPRISE!" announcement it's the Bounty Hunter book

Something to keep in mind that although RPGs are only 3% of the hobby market, there is a reason for this.

In a game like X-Wing, all participants need to purchase figures to make up their "army". In an RPG, the Game Master will most likely get as many books as they can get their hands on, and players may only get one or two of the career books - and they never need to purchase them again. So if a game group has (on average) 5 players and a GM, there are a lot of people playing, but not many buying.

The answer is to buy one of everything.

This is an interesting comparison. Taking "X-Wing vs SW RPG" as an example, we could estimate:

GM: 1x Core Rule Book @ $60 USD

Player 1: 1x Sorcebook @ $30 USD

Player 2: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Player 3: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Players 4-5 opt to either not buy books, or contribute a share of money to their friends who loan them books bought, above.

GM: 1x Adversary Deck @ 6 USD

GM: 2x Sourcebooks @ 2x $30 USD

GM: 1x GM Kit @ $20 USD

GM: 1x Dice @ $15 USD

Players: 1x Dice @ $15 USD, 1x ap @ $5 USD

-------------------------------------------------------------------$241 USD for GM and 5 players

What's it cost to build ONE X-Wing Army, assuming you make no changes to your pieces?

The cost of the army is not a good comparison. Using this is like saying that if you were playing Magic: The Gathering, you would only need to buy 1 starter deck - EVER!

Additionally, more product is release for X-Wing by a long shot than for the X-Wing.

You also have to look at the cost to sale ratio. Its a lot cheaper for FFG to produce a single miniature (even some of their bigger ones) than it is to produce one book. Miniatures also have wider appeal.

If the only deck you got was Mono-blue Delver, I'd say you are set, and it costs less than a typical starter deck.

While we may be comparing apples to oranges, I do wonder what the associated cost breakdown might be for a SW miniatures game versus the RPG.

I wonder what economies of scale might be. Sure, there are a lot of miniatures. I could envision a sourcebook for only one career or one species, thus greatly lowering product price, too. In parity, I buy a sourcebook, get three new species/careers. I spent $30 USD on it. If I buy a miniature, I get 1/6 the diverse options (it's one ship) of the sourcebook; do I pay 1/6th the price?

Looks like nothing about the RPG in the In-flight report.

It's over?

What the actual heck? Did they take questions? Did anyone ask about it?