Trends, Statistics, and Predictions!

By Absol197, in Star Wars: Edge of the Empire RPG

Awesome data, but slightly depressing to see how low on the totem pole we happen to be in terms of total market share.

The answer to this is obvious: each one of us gets 3 other people to buy a Star Wars book, and then they get 3 people to buy a Star Wars book, continue until we DOMINATE THE EARTH >:-D !!!

...wow, ahem. 'Scuse me, I was channeling Azula a little bit there!

Edited by Absol197

This is both wonderful yet sad news to read, @Alisair_Longreach.

Has there been any product support suggested after all career sourcebooks are complete? Sure, an adventure or planet/system book may appear now and again, AFTER the career sourcebooks end, but...

Will the product line die after all three core rulebooks have finished their career sourcebooks? Might this explain the inexplicable delay in getting the Bounty Hunter sourcebook? Is the Bounty Hunter Career Sourcebook likely a swan song for Edge of the Empire? If EotE is any slower in producing its content, I think AoR is the least-supported game play option (as suggested by the number of community forum posts within that wheelhouse versus EotE or even FaD), I don't know how well the other two/three options will stand alone, even with new content for those titles.

How else might FFG explain more than half-a-year to publish that book? I find it hard to believe that almost any other career is as iconic as the Star Wars bounty hunter, so playtesting and ideas should be deeply rich, especially mature by this time to print.

This is both wonderful yet sad news to read, @Alisair_Longreach.

Has there been any product support suggested after all career sourcebooks are complete? Sure, an adventure or planet/system book may appear now and again, AFTER the career sourcebooks end, but...

As my analysis of the product codes showed, there are three additional products expected after both the final region book and the Bounty Hunter book. And that's not including any other potential products that will be developed later and come in the lineup after the final specialization decks.

Will the product line die after all three core rulebooks have finished their career sourcebooks? Might this explain the inexplicable delay in getting the Bounty Hunter sourcebook? Is the Bounty Hunter Career Sourcebook likely a swan song for Edge of the Empire? If EotE is any slower in producing its content, I think AoR is the least-supported game play option (as suggested by the number of community forum posts within that wheelhouse versus EotE or even FaD), I don't know how well the other two/three options will stand alone, even with new content for those titles.

I don't think it's a death knell. If the line keeps selling well, and I imagine it will, they'll find something to produce to keep it going. My thoughts are that Edge is going so slow so as to allow Age and Force to catch up to it in terms of number of books, and also because they're reaching the end of their originally planned product line, so their stretching it out while they develop something else. What it might be? Who knows*! But I'm sure it will be awesome.

How else might FFG explain more than half-a-year to publish that book? I find it hard to believe that almost any other career is as iconic as the Star Wars bounty hunter, so playtesting and ideas should be deeply rich, especially mature by this time to print.

See above. Also, it's only been half a year (66.80% of a year technically) if you look at it from the most negative point of view. If you look at it from time since Special Modifications was released, it's only been 36.14% of a year, so about a third. Why yes, I AM being needlessly pedantic! So sue me :P !

And this is no different than the time between Fly Casual 's release and Mask of the Pirate Queen 's announcement. Uncomfortably long, but assuredly not a sign of the End Times TM .

*Mr. Pirate might know! Let's go bug him!

Edited by Absol197

Thanks, Absol197, for mitigating my fears! I've enjoyed this game more than any other RPG in my 40 year ol' life. I can into the game this summer (bought Keeping the Peace and Core, with Savage Spirits for Father's Day), so accessing material for any title is more a matter of available credits to spend than wait time.

I'm both incredibly impatient and obsessive-compulsive, so wait time is an EXTREME factor from my perspective!

You people are lucky, you have no idea how annoying it is in my Brain...

EDIT: Darn, no FiB at GenCon, according to the news article...

Edited by Absol197

Something to keep in mind that although RPGs are only 3% of the hobby market, there is a reason for this.

In a game like X-Wing, all participants need to purchase figures to make up their "army". In an RPG, the Game Master will most likely get as many books as they can get their hands on, and players may only get one or two of the career books - and they never need to purchase them again. So if a game group has (on average) 5 players and a GM, there are a lot of people playing, but not many buying.

The answer is to buy one of everything.

I think there are two future publishing plans for the Star Wars RPG. The first is somewhat depressive. During 2017 FFG will publish only the career books as these books are the only ones that generate profits and the adventure and regional books already published barely broke even on profits and it has been decided these kind of books should be discontinued.

The other publishing plan is more optimistic and we will be getting a couple more adventures and regional books. The downside is that we will not be seeing the Spy, Bounty Hunter and Mystic books until 2018. The Mystic book will of course arrive in shops just in time for Christmas 2018. Sorry Absol.

Something to keep in mind that although RPGs are only 3% of the hobby market, there is a reason for this.

In a game like X-Wing, all participants need to purchase figures to make up their "army". In an RPG, the Game Master will most likely get as many books as they can get their hands on, and players may only get one or two of the career books - and they never need to purchase them again. So if a game group has (on average) 5 players and a GM, there are a lot of people playing, but not many buying.

The answer is to buy one of everything.

This is an interesting comparison. Taking "X-Wing vs SW RPG" as an example, we could estimate:

GM: 1x Core Rule Book @ $60 USD

Player 1: 1x Sorcebook @ $30 USD

Player 2: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Player 3: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Players 4-5 opt to either not buy books, or contribute a share of money to their friends who loan them books bought, above.

GM: 1x Adversary Deck @ 6 USD

GM: 2x Sourcebooks @ 2x $30 USD

GM: 1x GM Kit @ $20 USD

GM: 1x Dice @ $15 USD

Players: 1x Dice @ $15 USD, 1x ap @ $5 USD

-------------------------------------------------------------------$241 USD for GM and 5 players

What's it cost to build ONE X-Wing Army, assuming you make no changes to your pieces?

Regarding trends and predictions based on those trends, what do we actually GET with each new book?

For example, if I took Lead by Example and Keeping the Peace, we get:

Chagrians (new!)

Ishi Tib (new!)

Lannik (new!)

Iktotchi (new!)

Whipid (new!)

Lannik (repeated elsewhere, but not in the title/FaD line)

In those same books, we also get:

Armorer (new!)

Warden (new!)

Warleader (new!)

Figurehead (new!)

Instructor (new!)

Strategist (new!)

If this were our only sample, we could predict how future career books offer 2.5 new species and 3 new careers.

Why would a capitalist repeat content, especially if said content is often one of the most heavily anticipated and debated pieces of any book?

Yeah, I realize that I might be hurting our fans' purchase power, but the quality of FFG products in SWRPGs is top of the class. Why dilute it with repeated content, even outside of any product line? Forgive me, but if I wanted to make (more) money, I'd redirect players with force-using characters into buying an Age of Republic title if they want to recreate Jedi Master Even Piell in their Force and Destiny game. Why not seek to blend the titles by offering attractive options not found anywhere else? Why repeat, and why didn't the FFG Left Hand know what the FFG Right Hand was doing with Lanniks?

We also have many other kinds of books, like adventures, in which we may see more species, Force Powers, and ...?

If this were our only sample, we could predict how future career books offer 2.5 new species and 3 new careers.

Why would a capitalist repeat content, especially if said content is often one of the most heavily anticipated and debated pieces of any book?

Because not every person in business is an inhuman, money-devouring fey being known as a "corporate executive," probably?

From the sound of interviews and such, many of the writers and developers of this game have a certain love of their craft (developing RPGs/tabletop games) and a love of the fiction, so they try to select things that would fit in well with the theme of the book, i.e. they pick things more for the art of it.

Which is the way I prefer it, personally.

Let's take a look at the upcoming Forged in Battle , specifically. The Heavy spec has already been printed, in the Hired Gun book. The same argument could be made here: why re-print a spec, one of the three major pieces of new material in any career book, from another book?

It's because thematically, while the Heavy does fit into the Mercenary theme of Dangerous Covenants , it's also a perfect fit for the battlefield theme of Soldiers in the Rebellion. If they're trying to make a high-quality product, that means that they will, occasionally, need to repeat material so that everything meshes together well. Even though I love new specs and new mechanics, I personally would have been very disappointed if the Heavy had not been one of the three specs in Forged in Battle . It's such an iconic Soldier archetype.

Edited by Absol197

Have you noticed that the Force Awakened Beginner set is SWR09? Did I miss a Star Wars line, or did they just skip a whole pile of product numbers?

Could this be the beginning of a Star Wars setting agnostic system line? The box does have characters from multiple settings. It would make sense long term to do a new line to extend the Star Wars RPG lifespan without having to make 2nd edition, and redo everything.

Edited by Edgookin

Yes, I did notice :) .

As I mentioned in my big post about product numbers, the Adversary decks use the "SWR" (likely short for "Star Wars Roleplaying") prefix, and there are 6 Adversary decks and the Critical Injury/Critical Hit decks that take up SWR01 through SWR08. Basically, labeling the TFA Beginner Game SWR09 is saying that it's a general product that goes with all three main lines.

Edited by Absol197

I'd much rather prefer paying some extra money for interestingly new content. As far as recycled careers, I dislike it because it shows less creativity. In this regard, why make a 'bounty hunter' sourcebook- sooooo many other careers could closely match or exceed expectations with whatever options are in this book.

Making comments about how the RPG market is the least profitable, I merely suggested ways to help bolster the line by using only unique content. Would I prefer to pay more money? Who does, beyond philanthropists? How many of us would pay exact market value if we found discounts for equal product elsewhere? I dare say how different compiled resources could limit sales, and am surprised that this content is shut down by the House of Mouse. Please do not act surprised to learn a possible player or GM could use these communal resources and avoid buying the associated books. Do I promote this idea? No, because the publishing team creates valued product, and deserve compensation.

For my $30+ dollars, I just wish we would get unique content without repeats. A section of other specializations that mesh well into an existing career makes an extra page. Do I want another Heavy in the Soldier sourcebook? Did we get 5 unique specializations until the thought well dried-up? From FFG, who makes excellent products, I find it hard to swallow that a 6th unique specialization, another new species, etc. are lacking.

I must point out that 8 skills are Career related and only 4 come from the Specialisation. This has had a big effect on the duplicate Specialisations in the past. Scout in particular has a very different skill set in the Spy career than in Fringer.

When I think of Absol197 (as a male)

I think I'm somewhat insulted :P !

And not for the reason you think: my obsession with the Mystic career is because I'm actually a deeply spiritual person, and numbers play a very small role in my beliefs. So calling them, "the handwriting of God," is entirely counter to who I am.

Although even my best friends would likely not know this about me as I don't talk about it much, so I can definitely understand the confusion, and i suppose I can't fault you for not knowing :) . My Brain forces me to do the numbers, but I think they're fun so I (usually) don't mind. But that's not the real me.

Great clip from a great movie, though! Clearly the dumbest awesome movie ever made, and not the other way around! :D

EDIT: Darn it, Kaosoe! You and Honest Trailers have gone and put it in my head that I need to watch Pacific Rim now, and I don't own it! Now I have to go to the store and buy a copy and watch it. I was trying to sleep! :( Long day tomorrow, I guess...

Edited by Absol197

EDIT: Darn it, Kaosoe! You and Honest Trailers have gone and put it in my head that I need to watch Pacific Rim now, and I don't own it! Now I have to go to the store and buy a copy and watch it. I was trying to sleep! :( Long day tomorrow...

I’m pretty sure it’s on NetFlix and other online sources. You probably don’t have to actually buy it unless you prefer that method over the alternatives.

Yes, I was smart enough to check Netflix before getting in my car, thankfully! I forget to check it more times than I'm comfortable admitting, and I have several DVDs from episodes like this that I really don't need, but will keep on the off chance it happens to me again and Netflix is for some reason unavailable.

Something to keep in mind that although RPGs are only 3% of the hobby market, there is a reason for this.

In a game like X-Wing, all participants need to purchase figures to make up their "army". In an RPG, the Game Master will most likely get as many books as they can get their hands on, and players may only get one or two of the career books - and they never need to purchase them again. So if a game group has (on average) 5 players and a GM, there are a lot of people playing, but not many buying.

The answer is to buy one of everything.

This is an interesting comparison. Taking "X-Wing vs SW RPG" as an example, we could estimate:

GM: 1x Core Rule Book @ $60 USD

Player 1: 1x Sorcebook @ $30 USD

Player 2: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Player 3: 1x Sourcebook @ $30 USD

Players 4-5 opt to either not buy books, or contribute a share of money to their friends who loan them books bought, above.

GM: 1x Adversary Deck @ 6 USD

GM: 2x Sourcebooks @ 2x $30 USD

GM: 1x GM Kit @ $20 USD

GM: 1x Dice @ $15 USD

Players: 1x Dice @ $15 USD, 1x ap @ $5 USD

-------------------------------------------------------------------$241 USD for GM and 5 players

What's it cost to build ONE X-Wing Army, assuming you make no changes to your pieces?

Doesn't matter too much but you probably forgot you have the GM buying 2 x source books and only added in the $30 once. The sum I got from the numbers you gave was $271.

If the typical xwING player is anything like the ones i've been in contact with, then they never stop at just building their army. I guarantee there's over $1500 of xwing stuff in my house and as more stuff comes out, that number grows. This is in spite of the fact that the last time anyone who lives here has played was over a year ago!

Not to mention every RPG group probably got themselves some X-Wing miniatures to use during RPG space combat!

Edited by Richardbuxton

So, dumb statistics question, but are you basing your predictions off a Poisson distribution or are you trying to force this into something like a Gaussian distribution?

Yes, I was smart enough to check Netflix before getting in my car, thankfully! I forget to check it more times than I'm comfortable admitting, and I have several DVDs from episodes like this that I really don't need, but will keep on the off chance it happens to me again and Netflix is for some reason unavailable.

I prefer physical media, myself. Netflix cycles things in and out of its library, so there's no guarantee that a movie or show will be there again. Barring damage to the discs, physical media means that I have access to it almost anytime I want it, despite the vagaries of Netflix.

I also recently got a good tip from an employee at Half Price Books: if a movie or tv series (particularly series) is available on Netflix, it hangs around on their shelves longer. I learned this after hiding my time to buy a Star Trek: The Next Generation season on blu-ray until getting one of their semi-regular 50% off coupons. It was a month and a half later, and I was surprised it was still in stock.

Yes, I was smart enough to check Netflix before getting in my car, thankfully! I forget to check it more times than I'm comfortable admitting, and I have several DVDs from episodes like this that I really don't need, but will keep on the off chance it happens to me again and Netflix is for some reason unavailable.

I prefer physical media, myself. Netflix cycles things in and out of its library, so there's no guarantee that a movie or show will be there again. Barring damage to the discs, physical media means that I have access to it almost anytime I want it, despite the vagaries of Netflix.

I also recently got a good tip from an employee at Half Price Books: if a movie or tv series (particularly series) is available on Netflix, it hangs around on their shelves longer. I learned this after hiding my time to buy a Star Trek: The Next Generation season on blu-ray until getting one of their semi-regular 50% off coupons. It was a month and a half later, and I was surprised it was still in stock.

Or you can get it for free from your local library, you cads!

Yes, I was smart enough to check Netflix before getting in my car, thankfully! I forget to check it more times than I'm comfortable admitting, and I have several DVDs from episodes like this that I really don't need, but will keep on the off chance it happens to me again and Netflix is for some reason unavailable.

I prefer physical media, myself. Netflix cycles things in and out of its library, so there's no guarantee that a movie or show will be there again. Barring damage to the discs, physical media means that I have access to it almost anytime I want it, despite the vagaries of Netflix.

I also recently got a good tip from an employee at Half Price Books: if a movie or tv series (particularly series) is available on Netflix, it hangs around on their shelves longer. I learned this after hiding my time to buy a Star Trek: The Next Generation season on blu-ray until getting one of their semi-regular 50% off coupons. It was a month and a half later, and I was surprised it was still in stock.

Or you can get it for free from your local library, you cads!

Same possibilities as Netflix: may not be available at the time, plus, may be closed when I want to watch Title X. If, however, it's in my personal library, I can walk out to the shelf in the wee hours of the morning and toss the disc in.

Nothing against public libraries, I just know that I get hit with occasional whims to watch movies or shows at odd hours.