7/29 is fair. It will drop late enough in July that the 11 day gap before becoming legal won't have passed by Gencon, leaving the NA Championships on wave 2.

What's this 11-day gap you're talking about? Is that something related to specific tournaments? According to the Tournament regulations "In North America, products are legal upon their release date. Players outside North America should check with their organizer to determine which products are tournament legal."

From the tournament regulations:

"For Relaxed and Formal events, all product is legal in North America upon the product's official release. For Premier events, all product is legal in North America 11 days—typically the second Monday—after the product's official release. Players outside North America should check with their organizer to determine which products are tournament legal"

Good Info, if belated

Ha! I hadn't read the rest of the thread at the time and I had noticed he'd asked me a question. Good to know everyone here is on the ball and up to speed and it is not just merely a really quirky idea in my mind.

July 21... so to be legal for GenCon and North American Championship

July 21... so to be legal for GenCon and North American Championship

Yup. Just long enough to have North American and European championships ahead of World's with Wave 3 legal at all of them.

So that would certainly be convenient, but that doesn't mean it will drop then. So, I take it that you're engaging in wishful thinking too?

July 28th

Optimistically hoping FFG didn't forget Engine Techs and shock us with July 14th

July 21... so to be legal for GenCon and North American Championship

Yup. Just long enough to have North American and European championships ahead of World's with Wave 3 legal at all of them.

So that would certainly be convenient, but that doesn't mean it will drop then. So, I take it that you're engaging in wishful thinking too?

Educated guess. It's far enough out that it doesn't become legal at the Canada Regional, is a Thursday (their preferred release day by their own statement), and is exactly two weeks before GenCon so people can order them from FFG and playtest if they aren't in a local store.

XMAS

July 21... so to be legal for GenCon and North American Championship

Yup. Just long enough to have North American and European championships ahead of World's with Wave 3 legal at all of them.

So that would certainly be convenient, but that doesn't mean it will drop then. So, I take it that you're engaging in wishful thinking too?

Educated guess. It's far enough out that it doesn't become legal at the Canada Regional, is a Thursday (their preferred release day by their own statement), and is exactly two weeks before GenCon so people can order them from FFG and playtest if they aren't in a local store.

Ah, so you think that FFG has sufficient control over the supply chain to drop it on a date decided by a tournament schedule. I'm just hoping for dumb luck that doesn't seem too outlandish.

So, should I put you down for 7/21, then?

XMAS

Got it!

14th - optimistic me.

Wow, so far everyone who's placed a single-date bet has been more optimistic than me.

Any later and that 4-6 week boat ride is becoming an 8 week plus boat ride.

11,000km / 60 days this is about 185km/day or about 8km/hour.

Which is a little more of a fast walk or slow jog. Even sail powered ships manage this don't they?

The irony is we seem to be waiting on the transports for our transports.

Or is that a fly in my chardie?

The irony is we seem to be waiting on the transports for our transports.

This has been a presentation of "Weird sentences that are actually correct..."

I well venture a guess of 17th July, just to fill the gab

I'm probably with the 7/28 crowd, but I could see it pushing into the first week of August.

I think the price of fuel is so cheap that it's not worth paying tolls at canals and they are going around? Can anyone confirm this?

I would prefer sooner, but my dart on the calendar is the 21st.

August 4th

I think the price of fuel is so cheap that it's not worth paying tolls at canals and they are going around? Can anyone confirm this?

interesting... i didn't know this was a thing...

I think the price of fuel is so cheap that it's not worth paying tolls at canals and they are going around? Can anyone confirm this?

I can confirm that the price of gas is NOTHING compared to the price of spending that much time out of port. These ships are about getting paid, they don't take the long way unless they need to or want to for other reasons. Going around Cape Horn would take weeks, unless they have a stop planned in Chile or Argentina there's no good reason. They sure as hell aren't going to do it for a bunch of plastic toys that they're getting a flat rate for regardless.

Besides, unless they are directly shipping it through the St Lawrence River into Chicago, it's being sent to the west coast (LA, Oakland, Portland or Seattle) and then put on a train to Minneapolis. You ship through the Panama canal to get to the east coast. Kind of like how you only go through the Suez Canal if you really desperately need a striaght line to Europe or western Russia.

-edit- Source: Family member works for cargo shipping lines, makes regular trips back and forth to China/Hawaii/USA Mainland. Good work if you don't need constant social interaction for days at a time, want an annual 6 month vacation, and are willing to work your butt off 24/7.

...

Besides, unless they are directly shipping it through the St Lawrence River into Chicago, it's being sent to the west coast (LA, Oakland, Portland or Seattle) and then put on a train to Minneapolis. You ship through the Panama canal to get to the east coast. Kind of like how you only go through the Suez Canal if you really desperately need a striaght line to Europe or western Russia.

Would the stuff actually be shipped to Minneapolis? Wouldn't it go directly to distributors?

...

Besides, unless they are directly shipping it through the St Lawrence River into Chicago, it's being sent to the west coast (LA, Oakland, Portland or Seattle) and then put on a train to Minneapolis. You ship through the Panama canal to get to the east coast. Kind of like how you only go through the Suez Canal if you really desperately need a striaght line to Europe or western Russia.

Would the stuff actually be shipped to Minneapolis? Wouldn't it go directly to distributors?

Has to be confirmed by the owner. If that duty is offloaded to distributors, it is still more cost efficient to go straight to a West Coast port and skip the canals entirely in most cases.

Just so we're all on the same page about Wave 2: shipping chaos and possible loss of product after the Tianjin explosion in China, but when they got to the USA almost all the west coast ports were on strike because of union negotiations with dockworkers. It was, for lack of a better term, a perfect storm of suck that caught FFG just as they were trying to really put Armada on the map.

Those negotiations are handled for the next few years at least, and China has sorted out their shipping mess for the time being.

I am on the 7/21 train. I suspect that the "On the boat" will be ending any day now. Then it needs a couple of weeks to go through the paces before official release. 7/21 seems right.

I'll put my shiny challenge coin on July 21st just cause that would be the date that would suck most since I'll be away from my FLGS.

Okay, I updated the list with the latest.

I'll put my shiny challenge coin on July 21st just cause that would be the date that would suck most since I'll be away from my FLGS.

...
Besides, unless they are directly shipping it through the St Lawrence River into Chicago, it's being sent to the west coast (LA, Oakland, Portland or Seattle) and then put on a train to Minneapolis. You ship through the Panama canal to get to the east coast. Kind of like how you only go through the Suez Canal if you really desperately need a striaght line to Europe or western Russia.

Would the stuff actually be shipped to Minneapolis? Wouldn't it go directly to distributors?

Has to be confirmed by the owner. If that duty is offloaded to distributors, it is still more cost efficient to go straight to a West Coast port and skip the canals entirely in most cases.

Yes, but is there any reason to suspect that FFG would want to have all of this stuff shipped to the middle of the country, rather than employ different distributors, many of them on the coasts, which is nearer to the bulks of the population?

(I'm not the guy speculating about the canals - I'm just wondering why FFG would want it all shipped to Minneapolis first. So that the crew can inspect them all, expansion-by-expansion?)

Just so we're all on the same page about Wave 2: shipping chaos and possible loss of product after the Tianjin explosion in China, but when they got to the USA almost all the west coast ports were on strike because of union negotiations with dockworkers. It was, for lack of a better term, a perfect storm of suck that caught FFG just as they were trying to really put Armada on the map.

Those negotiations are handled for the next few years at least, and China has sorted out their shipping mess for the time being.

Yes, Wave 2 was a nightmare, but it's just one of multiple data points. The Boat shipping minis has pretty much always taken longer than 4-6 weeks.

Im going to vote the 22 of July

I am going with the 28th because End of July was the original rumor we heard from Distributors, FFG likes releasing models on Thursdays which is just in time for Friday night games and local tournaments, and so that it is not available for GenCon as that would shift things way too soon for such a big tournament. I expect that they always want to sell them at GenCon so having them available for GenCon could hurt that since most people will have already bought what they were going to buy.

Without reading any of the other posts in this thread, I'd like to claim 25 July. Hopefully it's open still.