I disagree. You're conflating correlation and causation in a really weird way. Assuming that I've understood correctly, 60% plus of people play Eldar because that's how you win. It's not that people play Eldar because they're new and cool, it's because playing anything else means losing to Eldar, whereas playing Eldar means you might stand a chance of actually testing your skill against other players.

If u-boats were just being played just because they're popular and cool (on which I call BS, by the by, it's not like the Contracted Scout or even the JM5k was a popular ship people were demanding for ages before it dropped, it's not like it's been a staple of comics or it's featured in a current highly popular TV show or movie), they wouldn't be winning disproportionately - we'd see them throughout the lists, and we'd see a good mix of lists at high level, like we were before Wave 8 dropped. The Ghost is popular and cool (and among the best ships in the rebel meta right now) but you don't see it at top tables in anywhere enar the numbers you see u-boats and palpatine.

But we don't, we see more than 50% palp/aces and u-boats, because those are by and large more likely to make you win than any other list you could pick up and learn reasonably easily.

This DOES mean they're game-bendingly good. Not game-breaking, I never said that either. Meta-warping. They have warped the meta by being too powerful against certain lists which were part of a (mostly) balanced meta, but not against others.

It is a very interesting discussion but I believe to be successful at the highest level, you need some amount of skill regardless of the list. I have seen plenty of highly skilled pilots using the triple U-Boats and I don't really have a problem with it. They are frustrating and perhaps something should be done with deadeye or some aspect of the build I don't know, but mistakes do still happen and some of those mistakes are very unforgiving. I called for the nerf gun when the list first dropped, but I have sort of moved away from that because I enjoy the challenge of trying to beat them. I think the meta is still pretty diverse and we are seeing more and more knock off the triple U-boats, which means that now more than ever I think it is pretty impressive if a wolfpack can go the distance when so many people are looking for ways to defeat them.

But we don't, we see more than 50% palp/aces and u-boats, because those are by and large more likely to make you win than any other list you could pick up and learn reasonably easily.

This DOES mean they're game-bendingly good. Not game-breaking, I never said that either. Meta-warping. They have warped the meta by being too powerful against certain lists which were part of a (mostly) balanced meta, but not against others.

Mostly balanced meta? Which lists do you think U-boats have invalidated? The Ghost, Fat Han, big ships in general? That was already done by the TLT being invented. Low Agility ships? Again, invalidated by the TLT. Rebel Regen lists? They've already had counters, one of which also being the TLT. Please name a list that has be invalidated simply because of the U-boat.

There's always going to be Tiers, and those Tiers will always narrow towards the top.

I think you've got three commonly played Tier One lists (Aces, Jumps, Swarms) and then a couple of strong Tier Two lists (Brobots, Dash/Ghost), then a whole slew of other stuff in Tier Three that can be flown successfully by a good player.

I actually think that's very healthy, certainly by any of my experience of other competitive games it is. And when you then consider that each of those Tier One lists is actually a collection of varieties of sublists (Aces picks from a good half dozen ships, Jumps come in mutliple varieties that have significantly different matchup strengths, Swarms come in several flavours) then it's incredibly healthy.

I've played through some very unhealthy metagames when I was hardcore into Magic. X-Wing isn't REMOTELY close to an unhealthy situation.

But we don't, we see more than 50% palp/aces and u-boats, because those are by and large more likely to make you win than any other list you could pick up and learn reasonably easily.

This DOES mean they're game-bendingly good. Not game-breaking, I never said that either. Meta-warping. They have warped the meta by being too powerful against certain lists which were part of a (mostly) balanced meta, but not against others.

Mostly balanced meta? Which lists do you think U-boats have invalidated? The Ghost, Fat Han, big ships in general? That was already done by the TLT being invented. Low Agility ships? Again, invalidated by the TLT. Rebel Regen lists? They've already had counters, one of which also being the TLT. Please name a list that has be invalidated simply because of the U-boat.

Yeah I don't agree with that.

Rebel Regen has absolutely been invalidated by the rise of Alpha Strike lists, which mainly means Jumpmasters and Crack Swarms. If any list is dead it's that one - you can't regen when you're dead.

But metagame churn is always going to happen. Everyone gets their time in the sun so I won't shed a tear that Red Ace isn't quite what he was a couple of months ago, because he was a boring and sh*tty thing to play against anyway. Or stressbots.

But we don't, we see more than 50% palp/aces and u-boats, because those are by and large more likely to make you win than any other list you could pick up and learn reasonably easily.

This DOES mean they're game-bendingly good. Not game-breaking, I never said that either. Meta-warping. They have warped the meta by being too powerful against certain lists which were part of a (mostly) balanced meta, but not against others.

Mostly balanced meta? Which lists do you think U-boats have invalidated? The Ghost, Fat Han, big ships in general? That was already done by the TLT being invented. Low Agility ships? Again, invalidated by the TLT. Rebel Regen lists? They've already had counters, one of which also being the TLT. Please name a list that has be invalidated simply because of the U-boat.

Put perfectly simply, as noted above, the rebel regen/toolbox list. It was winning nationals and worlds in wave 7, and still doing solidly after the f/o and T70 dropped.

I understand Paul Heaver himself has been quoted as saying that he doesn't feel rebels are competitive right now. Rebel regen was mostly balanced with (and indeed, USES, in some variants) TLTs, and provided, as noted above, a counter to palp/aces, as it was usually able to limit palp/aces' damage to low numbers per round and regen that damage.

TLTs were nowhere near as meta-warping as u-boats are. You didn't see regionals and nationals where 50% of the top cut was Thug Life or 3 K wings.

The best analogy is probably pre-Autothrusters fat Han or Whisper, though I don't get the impression that u-boats are anywhere near as bad as pre-errata whisper was.

But we don't, we see more than 50% palp/aces and u-boats, because those are by and large more likely to make you win than any other list you could pick up and learn reasonably easily.

This DOES mean they're game-bendingly good. Not game-breaking, I never said that either. Meta-warping. They have warped the meta by being too powerful against certain lists which were part of a (mostly) balanced meta, but not against others.

Mostly balanced meta? Which lists do you think U-boats have invalidated? The Ghost, Fat Han, big ships in general? That was already done by the TLT being invented. Low Agility ships? Again, invalidated by the TLT. Rebel Regen lists? They've already had counters, one of which also being the TLT. Please name a list that has be invalidated simply because of the U-boat.

Yeah I don't agree with that.

Rebel Regen has absolutely been invalidated by the rise of Alpha Strike lists, which mainly means Jumpmasters and Crack Swarms. If any list is dead it's that one - you can't regen when you're dead.

But metagame churn is always going to happen. Everyone gets their time in the sun so I won't shed a tear that Red Ace isn't quite what he was a couple of months ago, because he was a boring and sh*tty thing to play against anyway. Or stressbots.

And Crackswarm has been a thing longer than U-boats has been out. Yes, Rebel Regen struggles against U-boats, but so what? Any Alpha Strike list would do well against them.

Regen is pretty much the only real advantage rebel aces have.

They are in almost every respect less efficient or less maneuverable or both than their imperial counterparts.

And Crackswarm has been a thing longer than U-boats has been out. Yes, Rebel Regen struggles against U-boats, but so what? Any Alpha Strike list would do well against them.

There's no awards for playing something before it was good in the meta, aside from a wooden spoon.

Crack Swarms have never been bad TBH, in terms of meta balance.

They get played comparatively little for different reasons, related to how hard they are to learn, how hard they are to play well, and how much brain space and time they take on a long day's tournament play.

Regen is pretty much the only real advantage rebel aces have.

They are in almost every respect less efficient or less maneuverable or both than their imperial counterparts.

Agreed.

And right now Rebel aces aren't very good. Never mind, eh? Plenty of other Rebel ships & pilots to play instead - they still have efficient basic jousting ships and powerful large ships.

Dash ghost and A-wing crackswarms are the most effective rebel lists right now but they arent at the level of uboats, palp aces, and imperial crackswarms.

I think the biggest issue with U-boats is that they are innately strong by the way you build them. They present a hill in the middle of the skill level. You can just buy in to 3xJM5K and fall somewhere in the middle sigmas of the bell curve because of how strong the ship is with a full load out. It is a forgiving list. The biggest issue is that there have not really been forgiving lists like this before. They arise in many games though and get the same amount of disdain. It doesn't really change anything though because they are what they are. I think if the X-wings ever get the fix people expect you will see 4x X-wing be the go to list which occupies this space. It is pretty impossible to avoid something taking the mid field unless the design space in a game is very limited. I compare them to Aggro decks in MTG. You just build a good deck or copy one and play the biggest stuff you can until your opponent is gone. It is frowned upon as skill less, but playing a tricky to pilot control deck is super skilled and so should be stronger and win. As long as one list is not actually winning everything you are probably still pretty close to actual balance and just dealing with meta chasing.

I've not played enough to talk about skill. What bothers me about the triple U-boats is whether in the "reality" of Star Wars, you would really find such an alliance among S&V types. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to field three of them, either.The Aggressors were fashioned to pair up, but I don't think FFG thought anyone would find three U-boats aesthetically/thematically pleasing. But I guess that's the difference between Fly Casual and Tournament styles of play.

It is a forgiving list.

It is not a forgiving list, because either you DO manage to let all three torps go in first contact, or you're screwed.

a guy won a tournament in Utah with T65 X-wings. Freaking X-wings.

Yeah, but that guy is like the Lionel Messi/Steph Curry of X-Wing. I bet he could win with anything.

I think the biggest issue with U-boats is that they are innately strong by the way you build them. They present a hill in the middle of the skill level. You can just buy in to 3xJM5K and fall somewhere in the middle sigmas of the bell curve because of how strong the ship is with a full load out. It is a forgiving list. The biggest issue is that there have not really been forgiving lists like this before.

I think there is something to this. To me the ' Jumpmaster is simple and OP' discussion really forks, in that until you get to playing against strong players the Jumpmaster does put a little bit too much good stuff in one place a bit too easily and as such it can provide a strong deterrent to average players experimenting with lists.

But if the original discussion was that players winning big tournaments with Jumpmasters arent being given enough credibility for those wins then I think that's right. Winning a 100+ player tournament with any list almost certainly required skill. I know personally some of the players who have been posting top results with Jumpmasters in the UK, and they're the same people who were posting top results with other lists 12 months ago. I also know some good players who've picked up Jumps and not found it the golden ticket to the next level.

Do they help you bully somebody in the local store on a Wednesday night? Yeah. Did anybody win a big event with them without already being a very good player and working hard? No.

I think the biggest issue with U-boats is that they are innately strong by the way you build them. They present a hill in the middle of the skill level. You can just buy in to 3xJM5K and fall somewhere in the middle sigmas of the bell curve because of how strong the ship is with a full load out. It is a forgiving list. The biggest issue is that there have not really been forgiving lists like this before. They arise in many games though and get the same amount of disdain. It doesn't really change anything though because they are what they are. I think if the X-wings ever get the fix people expect you will see 4x X-wing be the go to list which occupies this space. It is pretty impossible to avoid something taking the mid field unless the design space in a game is very limited. I compare them to Aggro decks in MTG. You just build a good deck or copy one and play the biggest stuff you can until your opponent is gone. It is frowned upon as skill less, but playing a tricky to pilot control deck is super skilled and so should be stronger and win. As long as one list is not actually winning everything you are probably still pretty close to actual balance and just dealing with meta chasing.

No forgiving lists? You mean like the pre-Nerf phantom, fat turrets, regen, TLT, and Palp Aces?

All of those lists are more forgiving than U-Boats. I'm not saying U-Boats is difficult to play, but it is more difficult than Palp Aces or other top tier lists of the past.

X-wing is a competitive game so you cannot hate a player for taking the list that is strong and easy to play.

I think this bears repeating. When I go to regionals next month, I would expect to see Trip-Jumps. I don't have a problem with people taking very competitive lists to tournaments, that's the point of a tournament. But don't expect me to congratulate you on winning the thing.

Also, try to avoid them for friendly game nights... We had one guy start at our club, flew TLT's, then flew jumps. Not really a lot of fun, he'll struggle to find opponents if it continues.

This is a toxic attitude that runs entirely counter to the term "friendly match." It will be your piss-poor attitude that hurts your community overall. Not the type of lists that you've deemed "wrong think."

Simple Logic:

1. XWING is fun because of Dial Management

2. Every game of XWING contains Dials.

3. Therefor every game of XWING is fun.

What bothers me about the triple U-boats is whether in the "reality" of Star Wars, you would really find such an alliance among S&V types. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to field three of them, either.The Aggressors were fashioned to pair up, but I don't think FFG thought anyone would find three U-boats aesthetically/thematically pleasing.

Many lists don't make sense from a lore point of view, like Palpatine and anything First Order, Biggs and Poe etc.

X-wing is a competitive game so you cannot hate a player for taking the list that is strong and easy to play.

I think this bears repeating. When I go to regionals next month, I would expect to see Trip-Jumps. I don't have a problem with people taking very competitive lists to tournaments, that's the point of a tournament. But don't expect me to congratulate you on winning the thing.

Also, try to avoid them for friendly game nights... We had one guy start at our club, flew TLT's, then flew jumps. Not really a lot of fun, he'll struggle to find opponents if it continues.

This is a toxic attitude that runs entirely counter to the term "friendly match." It will be your piss-poor attitude that hurts your community overall. Not the type of lists that you've deemed "wrong think."

Not entirely. On a friendly game night, I fly fun lists. At a tournament, or game night where we practice for a tournament, I fly U-boats? Why? Because U-boats is a good meta list that is fun to fly. You may want to call it "point and shoot", but doesn't that go for anything with a firing arc? I mean, I am even arc dodging with Jumpmasters sometimes....

But I can see why people that fly meta lists on a fun gamingnight risk getting shunned by the local gaming community.

It is a forgiving list.

It is not a forgiving list, because either you DO manage to let all three torps go in first contact, or you're screwed.

I disagree with this. Jumpmaster players will frequently use one of their boats to block, allowing the others to fire away with impunity. This makes it very hard to use the rule of 11 to close into range 1, and requires you to make a 50/50 guess as to whether they will/wont block. Their 'blocker' can then shoot 3 fully modified dice up close. You don't need 12 torpedoes off in the first round to win a match.

They are a pain to play against, and watching your Firespray disappear in one round of shooting is never nice, but they can be beaten - its just a very stressful experience.

Again...and? In Warhammer 40k, Eldar are considered over-powered because they win most tournaments. That's also because 60+% of people are playing Eldar at Tournaments. That alone is going to skew the numbers.

You've mistaken the "many people play this so it wins" for "this is obviously broken so people play it." And on that note, we should probably stop talking about 40k in relation to game design unless it's about how not to do it.

About uboats/tlts, it's veen mentioned before, but there are 3 factors that play into winning tournaments.

List power, player skill, and luck.

The reason tlts were frustrating, and somewhat with jumpmasters is that the floor for the list is fairly high.

You've mistaken the "many people play this so it wins" for "this is obviously broken so people play it." And on that note, we should probably stop talking about 40k in relation to game design unless it's about how not to do it.

I actually don't have an argument for that. Touché.

http://www.notsuchabadpilot.com/fahs/fear-anger-hate-suffering-analysis-of-the-nova-meta-vol-1-no-4/

Just gonna drop this here. I lost track of the discussion around page 6 so this may well be irrelevant. Notice how if anything is taking over the meta in the Nova area, it's aces (triple or palp-aces). That doesn't make people complain though!