ISD-I + Sensor Teams

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Average damage: 7.50

Likelihood of one accuracy: 100%

Likelihood to one-shot a CR90: 100%

Likelihood to one-shot a Raider: 100%

I'll do sensor team simulation as well though

Yeah, the dice values on Leading shots look off. It really depends upon whether you are rerolling red accuracies, and whether you're spending a hit or an accuracy on the blue. If the strategy is absolutely all the time to maximize damage, then it should match what I have above, or about 7.84. In reality, the situation in the game is going to dictate whether you lose damage or not. If you need a second accuracy, then you're going to have to spend damage instead of an accuracy. Note that the percentage chance to one-shot a Corvette or Raider also go up.

Blank, Blank, Blank, Hit, Acc, Blank, Hit, Hit-Crit

Man, I suck at this....

Naked ISD-I

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Average damage: 6.75

Likelihood of one accuracy: 62.44%

Likelihood to one-shot a CR90: 61.48%

Likelihood to one-shot a Raider: 43.37%

Sensor teams data will use this as a starting point.

To put some analysis on this, The reason why both the Corvette and Raider one-shots are lower than the overall chance of an accuracy is that some of the time you will have an accuracy but not enough overall damage to kill the unit. What the Corvette and Raider percentages reveal is that about 18% of the time, you'll just roll 8 or more damage but no accuracy.

Here are a couple of predictions: 1. Sensor teams will raise the likelihood of one-shotting a Corvette considerably. Basically, any time you'd get 6 or 7 damage without an accuracy, you now have one and can generate a kill. Since we're getting to the meanpoint of the damage, that's going to occur an awful lot of the time. This is even more true if we allow a ram. 2. Sensor teams will raise the likelihood of one-shotting a Raider to about the same level as a Corvette, since the accuracy is the problem.

Interesting. What strategy did you implement for dice rerolls?

Also i would assume that the likelyhood of one accuracy should be higher with LS.

I looked at the code and started to tinker with it but will need ro take avbreak until Monday.

I'm pushing an update tonight. Didn't have git aces this afternoon so I couldn't keep it up to date. Leading Shots is broken in the currently-posted version.

I would have thought the accuracy chances would be higher for LS, too, but couldn't immediately identify a reason it shouldn't be rolling right. I'll check it again later.

Blank, Blank, Blank, Hit, Acc, Blank, Hit, Hit-Crit

Man, I suck at this....

looks like a great candidate for LS...

Blank, Blank, Blank, Hit, Acc, Blank, Hit, Hit-Crit

Man, I suck at this....

looks like a great candidate for LS...

In fact, you got average damage for the blacks, so an OE reroll would have a marginal benefit (you wouldn't really re-roll the hit as the rest of the damage pool sucks).

Yeah, the dice values on Leading shots look off. It really depends upon whether you are rerolling red accuracies, and whether you're spending a hit or an accuracy on the blue. If the strategy is absolutely all the time to maximize damage, then it should match what I have above, or about 7.84. In reality, the situation in the game is going to dictate whether you lose damage or not. If you need a second accuracy, then you're going to have to spend damage instead of an accuracy. Note that the percentage chance to one-shot a Corvette or Raider also go up.

Broadly speaking, the strategy is to target the requested number of accs (one, in the case of trying to one-shot either corvette at close range), then maximize damage.

Blacks are rerolled on singles or blanks until the last form of dice modification in play, at which point they are rerolled only on blanks. The exception to this is if ACM/APT are in play and have not been triggered yet.

Blues are rerolled to fish for accuracy only if the target number of accuracies has not been reached yet. CF is applied to blues in this case, and is applied prior to rerolls.

Reds are always rerolled if they are blank. If they are accuracy and the target number of accuracies has already been reached, they are rerolled--but blue accuracies are prioritized for reroll over reds.

Blacks are prioritized for CF immediately after the initial roll if ACM/APT is present and not triggered. This is to maximize the odds of fishing up the black crit, because most of the time that is the die face you most need to fish for.

Blues are prioritized next for CF if we need to fish for an accuracy.

Reds are prioritized for CF only if 1) there is an accuracy, 2) two or more damage is showing (this would be modified for certain situations, but that variance hasn't been implemented yet), and 3) TRC is available.

There are lots of caveats and what-ifs (which is part of why this is 500 lines of code and growing), but that's generally speaking what's happening.

I see. I did play with a code a bit and got spme interesting data points. So far I only looked at OE and MC30 as an opponent.

Natural roll gets only 11% chance to kill it, OE reroll bumps this chance to 19%, however agressive OE use (rerolling everything except doubles) gives another bump to 25%

That looks like a pretty thorough set of assumptions. Good job.

So I ran that modified list today at a tournament and faced a couple of very squadron heavy lists

First I was up against a heavily upgraded ISDII, 2 Raiders, and a TIE/Firespray Rhymerball, 400 points so my 399 let me choose to go first and I selected contested outpost (again, I don't think Contested outpost is a good objective for Rhymer lists...)

I lost everything but 2 raiders, but I tabled the opponent +60 objective points.

Second was 2 VSD, 1 GSD and just a butload of Tie Fighters and Tie bombers and a couple of tie advanced (guy told me he was attempting a build with no Rhymer and no Demo), again 400 points, I chose to go first and we played Opening Salvo

This time I just lost an ISD and a Raider, Tabled the opponent.

I did actually win the tournament, but the field was very small and we only did 2 rounds.

My Takeaways (given my style of play and preference):

- I would actually leave the intel officer off both ships. I literally used him one time and he was virtually moot. If you keep the ISDs together and they both have OE and LS you can reliably push through enough damage that Intel is superfluous and expensive

- Gonna ditch instigator, completely superfluous. Did not fit with the strengths of the list.

- Holy hell Raiders. I mean, I KNOW what raiders can do, but in this list in particular where the enemy focuses on those big scary ISDs they psychologically discount the raiders and with good navigation, activation advantage and well timed CF commands I think my raiders may have actually killed off more ships than the ISDs with some decent natural double arc rolling (not to mention opening salvo + CF, 2 reds, 3 blacks 2 blues where I rolled 9 damage and an accuracy).

- I most CERTAINLY found I missed LS on the one ship MORE than I missed Intel on the other. It seemed that my ship with no LS has broken red dice batteries and after a couple of full front arcs with average black damage and 3 red blanks I was cursing it's misbegotten nature, Ironically, my other ISD WITH LS seemed to roll a statistically improbable number of double red hits...Although with one shot, LS accuracy hunting was literally the difference between a dead enemy and not.

Conclusion: I will remove Instigator, give both ISDs LS and OE and make one ISD Avenger. Why? well, again, if you run both of the ISDs tightly together and navigate well I found that a double arc with OE and LS will likely force the expenditure of tokens (also when in the thick of it, those raiders, god ****!) and then Avenger shoots last and ruins your day. Optionally I could make the other one Relentless and sit at 400 points, not sure if a 3 point bid is better or not...I did QUITE enjoy First/Lasting at close range with a full front arc ISD1.

All-in-all I did enjoy playing the list, refreshingly uncomplicated. NavNavNavNaVNav maybe a couple engineering at the end...a few CF for raiders...NavNavNav but In my personal opinion minimizing the RNG and having many options for customizing your damage pool to a given situation has FAR more effective value than purely mathematical return rates.

p.s. almost every god **** time i rolled a side arc i did average damage with the blacks and blanked the reds...