Chance of 2 damage with autocorrector autoblaster: 100%

Untrue. If you roll, you may end up with a damage and a crit or two crits, and the crits may cause additional damage.

I'd like to know how you came up with the numbers using both TL an focus. Remember us poor non-science people. The hardest math I had to do in the last 18 years was using Hardy Cross and the Hazen-Williams formula.

you use the binomial distribution with a probability of 0.5 for natural hits/crits, but with TL and focus you do the binom. distribution with a probability of 0.94.

why 0.94? because the chance of rolling a blank is 0.25, so the chance of rolling anything but a blank is 0.75.

so if you can reroll the die, you get a chance of either a success on the first try, 0.75, or a blank on the first try 0.25, times a success on the reroll, 0.75

so it's 0.75+0.25*0.75=0.94

you add chances that are x OR y and multiply chances that are x AND y

Ok, now I'm really lost. If the first two numbers in the equation represent the OR part and the third number represents the AND doesn't that come out to 0.75? (1*0.75) Please excuse this Math Challenged Fool.

There are four "successes" (hits and crits) on the red dice, and two focus results we can convert into successes with a focus token. The probability of getting a success is 4/8 + 2/8 = 3/4 or 0.75. The probability of a blank result is 2/8 or 0.25.

If you get a blank result, you reroll it. (It's a new, independent roll.) So in order to get a success, you get one without needing a reroll, or you get one by rolling a blank and then rolling a success.

That makes the probability 0.75 + (0.25 x 0.75).

Trying to simplify things frequently leads to incorrect conclusions. This thread is a perfect example.

If people would stop trying to baby others, perhaps more people would actually understand it and not throw up their arms and say "Math is hard". I'd like to think that any person is capable of understanding it given time and a slight bit of effort if you don't try to dumb it down.

OP, I appreciate the idea and effort, but I expect there are more people confused by your post/this thread than were helped by it.

Chance of 2 damage with autocorrector autoblaster: 100%

Untrue. If you roll, you may end up with a damage and a crit or two crits, and the crits may cause additional damage.

Cancel that ****; add two hit results

One

Hundred

Percent

All yalls common core math makes my head hurt.

I'd like to know how you came up with the numbers using both TL an focus. Remember us poor non-science people. The hardest math I had to do in the last 18 years was using Hardy Cross and the Hazen-Williams formula.

you use the binomial distribution with a probability of 0.5 for natural hits/crits, but with TL and focus you do the binom. distribution with a probability of 0.94.

why 0.94? because the chance of rolling a blank is 0.25, so the chance of rolling anything but a blank is 0.75.

so if you can reroll the die, you get a chance of either a success on the first try, 0.75, or a blank on the first try 0.25, times a success on the reroll, 0.75

so it's 0.75+0.25*0.75=0.94

you add chances that are x OR y and multiply chances that are x AND y

Ok, now I'm really lost. If the first two numbers in the equation represent the OR part and the third number represents the AND doesn't that come out to 0.75? (1*0.75) Please excuse this Math Challenged Fool.

There are four "successes" (hits and crits) on the red dice, and two focus results we can convert into successes with a focus token. The probability of getting a success is 4/8 + 2/8 = 3/4 or 0.75. The probability of a blank result is 2/8 or 0.25.

If you get a blank result, you reroll it. (It's a new, independent roll.) So in order to get a success, you get one without needing a reroll, or you get one by rolling a blank and then rolling a success.

That makes the probability 0.75 + (0.25 x 0.75).

I see said the blind man! The first 0.75 is the success roll. The (#) is the fail times the reroll, correct?

Trying to simplify things frequently leads to incorrect conclusions. This thread is a perfect example.

If people would stop trying to baby others, perhaps more people would actually understand it and not throw up their arms and say "Math is hard". I'd like to think that any person is capable of understanding it given time and a slight bit of effort if you don't try to dumb it down.

OP, I appreciate the idea and effort, but I expect there are more people confused by your post/this thread than were helped by it.

the only ones confused appear to me those who have some knowledge of math, but not sufficient elasticity of mind to see a difference in terminology does not equal an error in the math. there is no mathematical reason I can think of that renders 500% chance inherently wrong to mean you have an expected average of 5. it is only that the convention in statistics is to not use that expression. it is not wrong like 2+2=5 is wrong. it's just using colloquial terms instead of the scientific convention.

the criticizers above were themselves incorrect in their terminology, instead of (correctly) saying that my terminology was wrong, they instead (incorrectly) said my math was wrong. my math was not wrong, it was only (incorrect) colloquial terms and excessively rounded digit, both choices being done on purpose.

I'd like to know how you came up with the numbers using both TL an focus. Remember us poor non-science people. The hardest math I had to do in the last 18 years was using Hardy Cross and the Hazen-Williams formula.

you use the binomial distribution with a probability of 0.5 for natural hits/crits, but with TL and focus you do the binom. distribution with a probability of 0.94.

why 0.94? because the chance of rolling a blank is 0.25, so the chance of rolling anything but a blank is 0.75.

so if you can reroll the die, you get a chance of either a success on the first try, 0.75, or a blank on the first try 0.25, times a success on the reroll, 0.75

so it's 0.75+0.25*0.75=0.94

you add chances that are x OR y and multiply chances that are x AND y

Ok, now I'm really lost. If the first two numbers in the equation represent the OR part and the third number represents the AND doesn't that come out to 0.75? (1*0.75) Please excuse this Math Challenged Fool.

There are four "successes" (hits and crits) on the red dice, and two focus results we can convert into successes with a focus token. The probability of getting a success is 4/8 + 2/8 = 3/4 or 0.75. The probability of a blank result is 2/8 or 0.25.

If you get a blank result, you reroll it. (It's a new, independent roll.) So in order to get a success, you get one without needing a reroll, or you get one by rolling a blank and then rolling a success.

That makes the probability 0.75 + (0.25 x 0.75).

I see said the blind man! The first 0.75 is the success roll. The (#) is the fail times the reroll, correct?

yes your error earlier was to do 0.75+0.25 and then multiply, but the convention in math is that multiplication takes precedence. the convention has the purpose of avoiding parenthesis where possible.

Chance of 2 damage with autocorrector autoblaster: 100%

Untrue. If you roll, you may end up with a damage and a crit or two crits, and the crits may cause additional damage.

unless you're rolling against no agility, it's usually better to cancel the crit and take 2 unavoidable hits anyway.

if something has a chance of 6% and you have 10 tries, you get a 60% "chance of it happening"

The chance of the event happening at least once would be:

1 - (1-0.06)^10 = 46%

I'd like to know how you came up with the numbers using both TL an focus. Remember us poor non-science people. The hardest math I had to do in the last 18 years was using Hardy Cross and the Hazen-Williams formula.

you use the binomial distribution with a probability of 0.5 for natural hits/crits, but with TL and focus you do the binom. distribution with a probability of 0.94.

why 0.94? because the chance of rolling a blank is 0.25, so the chance of rolling anything but a blank is 0.75.

so if you can reroll the die, you get a chance of either a success on the first try, 0.75, or a blank on the first try 0.25, times a success on the reroll, 0.75

so it's 0.75+0.25*0.75=0.94

you add chances that are x OR y and multiply chances that are x AND y

Ok, now I'm really lost. If the first two numbers in the equation represent the OR part and the third number represents the AND doesn't that come out to 0.75? (1*0.75) Please excuse this Math Challenged Fool.

There are four "successes" (hits and crits) on the red dice, and two focus results we can convert into successes with a focus token. The probability of getting a success is 4/8 + 2/8 = 3/4 or 0.75. The probability of a blank result is 2/8 or 0.25.

If you get a blank result, you reroll it. (It's a new, independent roll.) So in order to get a success, you get one without needing a reroll, or you get one by rolling a blank and then rolling a success.

That makes the probability 0.75 + (0.25 x 0.75).

I see said the blind man! The first 0.75 is the success roll. The (#) is the fail times the reroll, correct?

yes your error earlier was to do 0.75+0.25 and then multiply, but the convention in math is that multiplication takes precedence. the convention has the purpose of avoiding parenthesis where possible.

Well, us old farts need constant reminders of what to do when.

if something has a chance of 6% and you have 10 tries, you get a 60% "chance of it happening"

The chance of the event happening at least once would be:

1 - (1-0.06)^10 = 46%

that's right, as you can also see from the last binomial distribution in my original post:

" 54% chance of rolling 4 natural hits zero times in 10 rounds, "

that is to say, the chance of 1+ events is 46%

I'd like to know how you came up with the numbers using both TL an focus. Remember us poor non-science people. The hardest math I had to do in the last 18 years was using Hardy Cross and the Hazen-Williams formula.

you use the binomial distribution with a probability of 0.5 for natural hits/crits, but with TL and focus you do the binom. distribution with a probability of 0.94.

why 0.94? because the chance of rolling a blank is 0.25, so the chance of rolling anything but a blank is 0.75.

so if you can reroll the die, you get a chance of either a success on the first try, 0.75, or a blank on the first try 0.25, times a success on the reroll, 0.75

so it's 0.75+0.25*0.75=0.94

you add chances that are x OR y and multiply chances that are x AND y

Ok, now I'm really lost. If the first two numbers in the equation represent the OR part and the third number represents the AND doesn't that come out to 0.75? (1*0.75) Please excuse this Math Challenged Fool.

There are four "successes" (hits and crits) on the red dice, and two focus results we can convert into successes with a focus token. The probability of getting a success is 4/8 + 2/8 = 3/4 or 0.75. The probability of a blank result is 2/8 or 0.25.

If you get a blank result, you reroll it. (It's a new, independent roll.) So in order to get a success, you get one without needing a reroll, or you get one by rolling a blank and then rolling a success.

That makes the probability 0.75 + (0.25 x 0.75).

I see said the blind man! The first 0.75 is the success roll. The (#) is the fail times the reroll, correct?

yes your error earlier was to do 0.75+0.25 and then multiply, but the convention in math is that multiplication takes precedence. the convention has the purpose of avoiding parenthesis where possible.

Well, us old farts need constant reminders of what to do when.

I guess you're brit : ) I should have guess from the unusual (for an american) self-deprecation

I'd like to know how you came up with the numbers using both TL an focus. Remember us poor non-science people. The hardest math I had to do in the last 18 years was using Hardy Cross and the Hazen-Williams formula.

you use the binomial distribution with a probability of 0.5 for natural hits/crits, but with TL and focus you do the binom. distribution with a probability of 0.94.

why 0.94? because the chance of rolling a blank is 0.25, so the chance of rolling anything but a blank is 0.75.

so if you can reroll the die, you get a chance of either a success on the first try, 0.75, or a blank on the first try 0.25, times a success on the reroll, 0.75

so it's 0.75+0.25*0.75=0.94

you add chances that are x OR y and multiply chances that are x AND y

Ok, now I'm really lost. If the first two numbers in the equation represent the OR part and the third number represents the AND doesn't that come out to 0.75? (1*0.75) Please excuse this Math Challenged Fool.

There are four "successes" (hits and crits) on the red dice, and two focus results we can convert into successes with a focus token. The probability of getting a success is 4/8 + 2/8 = 3/4 or 0.75. The probability of a blank result is 2/8 or 0.25.

If you get a blank result, you reroll it. (It's a new, independent roll.) So in order to get a success, you get one without needing a reroll, or you get one by rolling a blank and then rolling a success.

That makes the probability 0.75 + (0.25 x 0.75).

I see said the blind man! The first 0.75 is the success roll. The (#) is the fail times the reroll, correct?

yes your error earlier was to do 0.75+0.25 and then multiply, but the convention in math is that multiplication takes precedence. the convention has the purpose of avoiding parenthesis where possible.

Well, us old farts need constant reminders of what to do when.

I guess you're brit : ) I should have guess from the unusual (for an american) self-deprecation

WRONG! Born, raised and aged in NE Ohio. Like Dirty Harry said, "a man's got to know his limitations". Besides, if you don't have a sense of humor, especially in today's world, you'll go crazy.

Trying to simplify things frequently leads to incorrect conclusions. This thread is a perfect example.

If people would stop trying to baby others, perhaps more people would actually understand it and not throw up their arms and say "Math is hard". I'd like to think that any person is capable of understanding it given time and a slight bit of effort if you don't try to dumb it down.

OP, I appreciate the idea and effort, but I expect there are more people confused by your post/this thread than were helped by it.

the only ones confused appear to me those who have some knowledge of math, but not sufficient elasticity of mind to see a difference in terminology does not equal an error in the math. there is no mathematical reason I can think of that renders 500% chance inherently wrong to mean you have an expected average of 5. it is only that the convention in statistics is to not use that expression. it is not wrong like 2+2=5 is wrong. it's just using colloquial terms instead of the scientific convention.

the criticizers above were themselves incorrect in their terminology, instead of (correctly) saying that my terminology was wrong, they instead (incorrectly) said my math was wrong. my math was not wrong, it was only (incorrect) colloquial terms and excessively rounded digit, both choices being done on purpose.

Did I say you were wrong? No. I do think that trying to soften the terms makes it harder to understand instead of more clear. Just like Common Core math may get you to the same place, it frequently confuses people unless they already understand the underlying concepts. Which is why it is frequently under scrutiny for being confusing.

To test the theory of people understanding it, I asked a friend of mine if they could understand this thread and what it was trying to say,starting with the original post. The person in question has played X-Wing and understands the dice/game.

The response was "I know why I don't bother with the math". I think that pretty much says everything that needs to be said.

Hi XBear,

There is a slight issue with your p times n calculation here (or at least the way the explanation seems at first glance). When you do that calculation, you are calculating the average number of rolls out of 10 that will produce 4 hits. So you've calculated that, on average, 0.6 rolls out of 10 will produce 4 hits. This is different than saying that there is a 60% of rolling 4 hits in 10 rounds.

Your binomial distribution at the end of the post correctly calculates the chance that you will get 4 hits at least once out of the 10 at ~46%

Thanks for the post!

Trying to simplify things frequently leads to incorrect conclusions. This thread is a perfect example.

If people would stop trying to baby others, perhaps more people would actually understand it and not throw up their arms and say "Math is hard". I'd like to think that any person is capable of understanding it given time and a slight bit of effort if you don't try to dumb it down.

OP, I appreciate the idea and effort, but I expect there are more people confused by your post/this thread than were helped by it.

the only ones confused appear to me those who have some knowledge of math, but not sufficient elasticity of mind to see a difference in terminology does not equal an error in the math. there is no mathematical reason I can think of that renders 500% chance inherently wrong to mean you have an expected average of 5. it is only that the convention in statistics is to not use that expression. it is not wrong like 2+2=5 is wrong. it's just using colloquial terms instead of the scientific convention.

the criticizers above were themselves incorrect in their terminology, instead of (correctly) saying that my terminology was wrong, they instead (incorrectly) said my math was wrong. my math was not wrong, it was only (incorrect) colloquial terms and excessively rounded digit, both choices being done on purpose.

Did I say you were wrong? No. I do think that trying to soften the terms makes it harder to understand instead of more clear. Just like Common Core math may get you to the same place, it frequently confuses people unless they already understand the underlying concepts. Which is why it is frequently under scrutiny for being confusing.

To test the theory of people understanding it, I asked a friend of mine if they could understand this thread and what it was trying to say,starting with the original post. The person in question has played X-Wing and understands the dice/game.

The response was "I know why I don't bother with the math". I think that pretty much says everything that needs to be said.

That's not a fair or accurate assessment. If you're not familiar with the terminology or higher level math it all falls under the heading of "FM". While it's not required to play the game it is interesting to get an idea of the "odds" of rolling some bizarre combinations of defense dice or the what the odds are of rolling five crits naked.

@ Stoneface, haha ok, I guess there's more differences between americans than I know of. I've only lived in texas and california

@Darkside, you're right of course, as explained later in the thread (probably not worth reading), I colloquially used an incorrect terminology in the first part of the first post, to refer to the expected average, while giving the correct distribution in the second part of the first post. the expected average of a 4 hit out of 10 is 0.6. the chance of at least one 4 hit out of 10 is 46%.

why did I use incorrect colloquial terms? because I was trying to explain to players who are not interested in learning about binomial distributions that rolling 4 hits naturally or 4 blanks with TL+focus is not a rare event. for that purpose, frankly 60% or 46% doesn't matter. I think people learn better when they understand at least some math by themselves.

Trying to simplify things frequently leads to incorrect conclusions. This thread is a perfect example.

If people would stop trying to baby others, perhaps more people would actually understand it and not throw up their arms and say "Math is hard". I'd like to think that any person is capable of understanding it given time and a slight bit of effort if you don't try to dumb it down.

OP, I appreciate the idea and effort, but I expect there are more people confused by your post/this thread than were helped by it.

the only ones confused appear to me those who have some knowledge of math, but not sufficient elasticity of mind to see a difference in terminology does not equal an error in the math. there is no mathematical reason I can think of that renders 500% chance inherently wrong to mean you have an expected average of 5. it is only that the convention in statistics is to not use that expression. it is not wrong like 2+2=5 is wrong. it's just using colloquial terms instead of the scientific convention.

the criticizers above were themselves incorrect in their terminology, instead of (correctly) saying that my terminology was wrong, they instead (incorrectly) said my math was wrong. my math was not wrong, it was only (incorrect) colloquial terms and excessively rounded digit, both choices being done on purpose.

Did I say you were wrong? No. I do think that trying to soften the terms makes it harder to understand instead of more clear. Just like Common Core math may get you to the same place, it frequently confuses people unless they already understand the underlying concepts. Which is why it is frequently under scrutiny for being confusing.

To test the theory of people understanding it, I asked a friend of mine if they could understand this thread and what it was trying to say,starting with the original post. The person in question has played X-Wing and understands the dice/game.

The response was "I know why I don't bother with the math". I think that pretty much says everything that needs to be said.

well at least my thread is not mandatory reading, unlike common core (which I wish was obliterated from the face of the earth).

well at least my thread is not mandatory reading, unlike common core (which I wish was obliterated from the face of the earth).

It's fairly obvious educational standards would bother you.

well at least my thread is not mandatory reading, unlike common core (which I wish was obliterated from the face of the earth).

OMG I know. I majored in Statistics in college, and though I chose a different career path and never graduated, math for me is intuitive and easy and is still a fun hobby. So when my fifth grader asks for math help and I try to show her how to do it, she says, "No, we have to do it like they do in the book."

I then spend the next fifteen minutes reading the book completely bewildered wondering why she has to do about 8 extra steps just to do simple division before telling her, " The answer is 12. The book is wrong and your school is stupid for using it."

well at least my thread is not mandatory reading, unlike common core (which I wish was obliterated from the face of the earth).

It's fairly obvious educational standards would bother you.

is "it's" the common core spelling? write it add ', then add s , remove ' ? sorry I only learnt english in my 2nd rate italian schools.

@ Stoneface, haha ok, I guess there's more differences between americans than I know of. I've only lived in texas and california

That's ok. I won't hold living in California against you. Everyone makes mistakes.<vbg> Texas is ok though. As I mentioned before, my brain is wired differently than most. I've never quit asking 'why' which drove mh Dad nuts! He had the patience of Job.

Probability Wurms read the entire thread = 0%

Probability Wurms gets ****ed by green die and loses a match = 100%

This is what you call true probability. Class...out.

@ Stoneface, haha ok, I guess there's more differences between americans than I know of. I've only lived in texas and california

That's ok. I won't hold living in California against you. Everyone makes mistakes.<vbg> Texas is ok though. As I mentioned before, my brain is wired differently than most. I've never quit asking 'why' which drove mh Dad nuts! He had the patience of Job.

I liked Austin enough while it was spring, but come summer it was hot like hell and I couldn't wait to leave. the natives seemed to feel OK though. california weather is much better asking why is usually a good thing