DICE. I hate them. They hate me. It's mutual.

I usually fly pretty well. When it's my fault, I don't get upset. I learn from it and move on.

But DICE. Man. DICE. My dice are one of two things. They will be ON LIKE FIRE. 'We love you Droz...We will never fail you...Marry me Droz!' And then, with no warning whatsoever, they will turn as cold and the lowest depths of hell 'What, oh, you need a single evade just to live? HERE IS A BLANK INSTEAD. Here's 4 blanks on an attack roll on a proton torpedo with guidance chips for you. Oh, you get to reroll? Here's four more blanks. NOW GET OUTTA MY HOUSE'. It's brutal. It's quite discerning and upsetting.

I flew well yesterday in all except the third match. I can honestly say that was my fault as I was just stumbling over myself because I wasn't thinking straight (sick for 5 days will do that to you). But the other 4 matches (Had a first round bye from store champ)? My dice were considerably good to me in match 2, 3, and 4 of the day. Match 5 and six? Seriously? WHAT THE HECK?! Flying was solid. Even against palp ace build, solid. My list itself was actually pretty solid too.

Horton w/TLT, R2 Astro

Neera w/deadeye, plasma, EM, FCS, Chips

2x Tala w/Concussion, Chips

In the weeks preceeding, practice with this squad showed considerable promise. It tore up triple uboats, TLT lists, even had a good field day with pal ace and swarm lists. The only thing I would change in hindsight is drop the R2 Astro for Proton Torps, better mods, better to hit with, and R2 never really came into effect except once.

Back to DICE. My red dice are usually pretty OK. They don't go cold on me much, except on Nera yesterday. I think her plasmas only hit twice, maybe three times all day. And that's out of 10 shots. The concussions however? Whoa. Those baby's rocked, and with only a target lock. Of the 8 total concussion missiles I fired (I'll get to that in a second), I think there were only two shots that did 3 damage. All of the rest were 4 hits, many crits. Made a Stressbot Y go poof in a single round. took out two Tie Fighters in a single round in a crack swarm (I felt bad for that guy, he had the luck I had, and somehow I think it rubbed off on me. I think that fight lasted 5 rounds total, and 20 minutes).

Anyway, back to DICE. Let's get a little more specific. GREEN DICE!!! Now, I fly rebels because Green dice hate me. I tend to fly things that, well, have a bigger punch, higher hitpoints, but less green dice, because they hate me. I'm not sure how I fly against people whose green dice regularly roll extremely well for them. I don't get it. Hell, VASSAL does the same thing to me, and I don't understand that one either. Not even a computer can roll green dice good for me.

My last two matches were a combination of very terribad green dice and mediocre red dice. I believe I rolled a total of 40 green dice over the last two matches, and of those rolls, I think I rolled 5 evades, three focus, and 32 blanks. THIRTY-TWO BLANKS. I'm honestly not exagerating. In my last match alone, both of my Z-95's had not fired off their concussions yet (this is what I was getting to). I was starting to bracket in the Inquisitor, who has 2 hull left, and was rolling very well on green dice. 1st Z bracketed him, both in firing arcs. This Z had 2 hull left, no shields. Inquisitor rolls 2 hits. Through a rock I believe. Yay, I have a focus, TL on the Inquisitor, and I'm rolling 3 green dice. All I need is at least a focus and I'll get this missile off and likely blow him up. NOPE! 3 blanks. SERIOUSLY?! Poof. There goes the Z. Screw you green dice. We jockey around for a few more rounds, both get into position to fire on each other. Guess what, similar situation, behind a rock, get 3 greens, only this time I have 1 shield and 2 hull left. Yay. Ok, he shoots. 3 hits. Ok, I've got a focus and a TL again, just need a focus to live. Roll. THREE BLANKS. Poof. Game over. Like that, in a billow of smoldering debris, both of my Z's were vaporized because my dice utterly failed me. It happened the prior match as well, I think I rolled a total of 2 evades that prior match, the rest being blanks.

I don't get it. How can I be that unlucky?

It's for these reasons I believe I'm done competing at the higher levels. I'll still do local stuff, but store champs and things like that, I'm done with it. I've started to lose sight of why I got into this game in the first place, and that was to have a lot of fun flying around star wars ships. I'm getting frustrated because things like this are beyond my control. I fly my ships pretty **** well, but if I'm getting killed due to dice doing nothing for me, well, what's the point of competing then? Just to give the next guy a win? I'd rather not be that punching bag.

Sorry guys, just me venting. BTW, I've even tried the star wars Dice app from FFG. It's the same thing. Maybe I have some sort of natural EM interference, lol. Heck if I know. All I do know is I am going to get back to enjoying the game that I used to enjoy instead of beating my head against a wall because, well, DICE.

Thanks for listening.

/vent

This advice has always helped me: just don't roll green dice.

Either be out of arc (play lists that do that), don't roll green dice (Ghosts, Lambdas), kill them before they shoot (still need some red normal luck for this).

Literally. That's the trick. Don't roll green dice.

--

If you have bad luck, you should know that, and as a player you can get better at this by actually playing games where you literally don't roll your green dice when you get caught. If someone shoots at you, pretend your agility is 0 except for guaranteed like Authothrusters. Will set you straight really fast.

This advice has always helped me: just don't roll green dice.

Either be out of arc (play lists that do that), don't roll green dice (Ghosts, Lambdas), kill them before they shoot (still need some red normal luck for this).

Literally. That's the trick. Don't roll green dice.

--

If you have bad luck, you should know that, and as a player you can get better at this by actually playing games where you literally don't roll your green dice when you get caught. If someone shoots at you, pretend your agility is 0 except for guaranteed like Authothrusters. Will set you straight really fast.

That's pretty good advice. Best way to avoid bad luck is too never give a chance for luck to show up. Fly some 0 agility ships. Use guaranteed stuff.

This is one of the reasons I loved playing AC Tempests with Clusters and Chips. My red dice didn't need luck at any stage, and my green dice always had a modifier on them. It wasn't the most spectacular list, but it was a list that was abusively consistent (much to the annoyance of every opponent).

Dice are fickle, and I had a horrible time with them last weekend myself. When they go cold, all you can really do is alter your plan on the fly, and work your positioning and angles to avoid taking fire wherever possible. Sometimes that can mean giving up a turn of shooting, but in a corruption of the old saying; they miss 100% of the shots on you that you don't let them take.

That said, sometimes you get to a point where you just have to Leeroy Jenkins into a fight and hope.

http://stayontheleader.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/in-my-experience-theres-no-such-thing.html

In my past life as a Coverage writer for Magic: The Gathering I was privileged to get to know many of the best Magic players to have ever played the game, and one of the first things that struck me was how well they handled defeat. The best players trusted their ability and understood that in the long run they'd still come out ahead, so on the days when variance had gone against them and they'd gone 0-3 and dropped out of the tournament they would just shrug their shoulders and get ready for the next one. Eventual success was almost guaranteed, they just couldn't predict when that success would come because variance would always play a part.

This attitude came in sharp contrast to the attitude that I'd seen in players a level or two below the best players, and in sharp contrast to my own attitude when I was playing. For many players like that the desire to prove that you are good enough to win something can remove that healthy perspective on the impact of variance. When a day lost to variance that should be "oh well, maybe next time" becomes "it should have been last time" then you are on the path to the dark side.

At the same Grand Prix that Raphael Levy (one of the all-time Magic greats) had done terribly but dropped out with a smile on his face I interviewed a Belgian player called Geoffrey Siron. He looked me right in the eye and said that his recent Pro Tour win had vindicated him, and now that he knew he was good enough he entered every tournament expecting to win it. There was no room for variance in Geoffrey's worldview - he took victory personally, and he took defeat personally too. Geoffrey Siron was finished with the game a year later, chewed up by not being able to replicate his success, while a decade later Raphael Levy is still losing in major tournaments... and winning in others.

I've been leaning towards dice manipulation lists because of these problems. Brobots for both offense and defense, Scouts torps, a lot of Imperial green dice lists, especially Palpaces. Dice will ruin you if you let them, so don't let them.

Actually I've been feeling that way as well but for different reasons.

I know the pain of the dice failing.

Happened last year at regionals

My third game.

Lined up coran range 1, fel had two focus and evade.

Coran has a crit that reduces PS to 0.

Anyway fel gets into his sweet spot, rolls the dice, 4 blanks.

Seriously?

The rear Admiral shoots, blanks.

Coran gets away, regen, and I lost the game.

I thought I'd never play again after that.

Because at times it doesn't matter if you're better than your opponent or not, sometimes the dice will crap out on you at the worst of times.

Reason why I'm thinking of stepping away now is for different reasons

Probably be my last regional and retire after that.

We'll see, but just having to travel is hard to do with wife and kids

Don't have many here to play with and it sucks sometimes as one will fly a fun list and the other brings a competitive list, and the game is over in three rounds.

I may try more epic games, love those, and they the hero's of atari cluster.

Play Armada!

No green dice! And the attack dice are much more consistent

Well this is why I dont travel for regionals

No point in devoting a day just to get ****** by dice

Not until ffg gives us a squad that can ruin **** just with bombs. Sabine helps but we're not there yet

it's possible statistically for a player to experience a very bad streak of lower than average rolls. however if you keep rolling eventually it will be averaged by a streak of good rolls.

there's no such thing as bad luck, but you may have some bad karma. the best way to obviate that is to be generous. generosity brings about good karma in the end

it's possible statistically for a player to experience a very bad streak of lower than average rolls. however if you keep rolling eventually it will be averaged by a streak of good rolls.

there's no such thing as bad luck, but you may have some bad karma. the best way to obviate that is to be generous. generosity brings about good karma in the end

I gotta see McFoy reply to this one.

http://stayontheleader.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/in-my-experience-theres-no-such-thing.html

Great post and a good article.

For those unwilling to read it or TLDR: Yes there is such a thing as variance or 'randomness' in dice rolling (i.e. bad or good luck). The best players mitigate against this so they don't get in a position where chance or luck is a factor.

Great post and a good article.

For those unwilling to read it or TLDR: Yes there is such a thing as variance or 'randomness' in dice rolling (i.e. bad or good luck). The best players mitigate against this so they don't get in a position where chance or luck is a factor.

That is not an accurate summary of the point. The point is that if you run a high-variance list you need to be prepared for instances when that variance dooms you, because it will. Well, you "need" it if you want to not be furious, anyway. If you're like fickle and you really, really hate green dice then run a list where they don't matter. Bombs, autoblasters with AC, zero agility ships, etc.

Also note the claim that high-variance lists are good if you want to go further than your skill alone will take you. Conversely, low-variance lists are good if you're confident your play alone can take you, if not to the top, at least to where you want to be.

Modifiers are very important. Don't expect anything without them. Also as a silver lining on average you should roll great for awhile!

http://stayontheleader.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/in-my-experience-theres-no-such-thing.html

Great post and a good article.

For those unwilling to read it or TLDR: Yes there is such a thing as variance or 'randomness' in dice rolling (i.e. bad or good luck). The best players mitigate against this so they don't get in a position where chance or luck is a factor.

depends what you mean by luck, some people only mean chance, so we can say luck is just statistical probabilities. in that sense of course you can have good rolls and bad rolls. in x-wing you can usually understand this by looking at the binomial distribution. other people by luck mean some kind of force that, for example, makes you very lucky or very unlucky. that, does not really exist.

Great post and a good article.

For those unwilling to read it or TLDR: Yes there is such a thing as variance or 'randomness' in dice rolling (i.e. bad or good luck). The best players mitigate against this so they don't get in a position where chance or luck is a factor.

That is not an accurate summary of the point. The point is that if you run a high-variance list you need to be prepared for instances when that variance dooms you, because it will. Well, you "need" it if you want to not be furious, anyway. If you're like fickle and you really, really hate green dice then run a list where they don't matter. Bombs, autoblasters with AC, zero agility ships, etc.

Also note the claim that high-variance lists are good if you want to go further than your skill alone will take you. Conversely, low-variance lists are good if you're confident your play alone can take you, if not to the top, at least to where you want to be.

I think the high/low variance idea has merits, though everybody should keep in mind that any chance higher than 0% can and will probably happen. to expand on the summary, the article says that, for example, high agility ships rely more on variance than low agility ships. a VCX (ignoring range 3 and obstacles) has a fixed number of hit points, while an A-wing has a variable number of hit points depending on how many evades it rolls.

Well this is why I dont travel for regionals

No point in devoting a day just to get ****** by dice

Not until ffg gives us a squad that can ruin **** just with bombs. Sabine helps but we're not there yet

Last year I went in with a bye and regret changing up my list

This year I have another bye and intend on learning from last year's mistakes

Great post and a good article.

For those unwilling to read it or TLDR: Yes there is such a thing as variance or 'randomness' in dice rolling (i.e. bad or good luck). The best players mitigate against this so they don't get in a position where chance or luck is a factor.

That is not an accurate summary of the point. The point is that if you run a high-variance list you need to be prepared for instances when that variance dooms you, because it will. Well, you "need" it if you want to not be furious, anyway. If you're like fickle and you really, really hate green dice then run a list where they don't matter. Bombs, autoblasters with AC, zero agility ships, etc.

amen

seismics/conners (esp w/sabine)

autoblaster (esp with acc corrector, or more like acc corrector/bust)

feedback array

full modifiers at the VERY LEAST (though you realistically need palp or g-chips too)

Zuckuss crew helps a lot

it's honestly not worth playing anymore without at least one of these elements

even then, though, dice will find a way to **** you. It makes me actually enjoy playing v palp aces more than most lists, because no other popular list is as capable of dying entirely to automatic damage

Dice! There is nothing like getting yourself lined up perfectly and roll 5 red dice and get 4 blanks and 1 focus then reroll one die for predator and get another blank. I knew at that point it was useless to go on. But, go on I did, next time rolled 2 hits and 3 focus good thing I had a focus token and my opponent this time rolled 4 blank green dice.

It seems like they just want to try your willingness.

I like your list however.

I play Grey Knights in 40K, and I play them as a null-deployment army because it's fun and it fits the theme of the army.

Basically it means that each unit in my army will arrive if I can roll a 3+ for it at the start of the turn. If I roll a 1 or a 2, that unit stays in reserve.

And IF the units arrive, they still scatter up to 2D6 from where I want them to land. And if they scatter onto enemy units or impassable terrain, they won't come down that turn and they might even be destroyed.

As you can see, a null-deployment army is fraught with risk. Sometimes it all goes well and you can pull off a stunning victory. But just as often your army comes down piece-meal, scatters wildly and you suffer a crushing defeat. It's win big or lose big.

They key to enjoy playing the game is that you have to accept that sometimes, it's just not going to go your way. As long as there is a random factor, you're going to have runs of good luck and bad luck.

As humans, we're good at recognising patterns. This has helped us to survive and develop the way we have, but an unfortunate side effect is that we often see patterns when there aren't any. We see connections where none exist. So we often come to believe things like 'the dice hate us' when it simply isn't true. The instances that confirm our bias anchor themselves in our minds, the instances that contradict it are soon forgotten, and often we take statistically insignificant samples and blow them up to be more than they are.

Your dice don't hate you. Sometimes you'll just get unlucky. And sometimes that will go on for a while.

Thanks for the sentiment and advice guys. I appreciate it.

Thanks Jimmy, buddy came up with it primarily and we tweaked it a bit here and there. Just wish I could have had better luck with it.

Many a cold night thanx to dice. Just this week had a full strength Soontir, range 3, took evade, Boosk hits him with modified reds for 4 smackies. Throw FIVE greens for 4 eyeballs and a blank. Soontir buys the moisture farm. Statistically, that's nearly IMPOSSIBLE to have not walked away from, at least at a limp.

it's possible statistically for a player to experience a very bad streak of lower than average rolls. however if you keep rolling eventually it will be averaged by a streak of good rolls.

there's no such thing as bad luck, but you may have some bad karma. the best way to obviate that is to be generous. generosity brings about good karma in the end

Yeah, so that second half is a big old pile of bull. Also, you realise that behind your quasi religious moralistic claptrap is the implication that the OP's dice are failing him in his plastic spaceship game is because he is a bad person? Screw that.

OP: What you're experiencing is selection bias driven by the fact that the human brain remembers negative experiences far better than it does positive. There's no basis in fact for luck, good or bad, it's just that you're not remembering the times you do roll evades because a combat round where he rolls hit hit crit and you roll two natural evades off two green dice still results in you losing a shield, and who cares it's just another round of shooting. But if you roll zero evades and he one shots your Phantom with a direct hit, that sticks in your head.

That's probably also why you think only your green dice hate you. Even great red dice rolls probably aren't going to be game defining. If you roll four out of four hits naturally against, say, Biggs, and he rolls evade focus, converts an eyeball and loses two shields, that's not very memorable, despite he fact that it's almost as unlikely as rolling four blanks.

Ultimately, you either have to accept that everyone is dealing with the exact same dice as you are, or fly a list where dice are less significant, as people have suggested.

it's possible statistically for a player to experience a very bad streak of lower than average rolls. however if you keep rolling eventually it will be averaged by a streak of good rolls.

there's no such thing as bad luck, but you may have some bad karma. the best way to obviate that is to be generous. generosity brings about good karma in the end

Yeah, so that second half is a big old pile of bull. Also, you realise that behind your quasi religious moralistic claptrap is the implication that the OP's dice are failing him in his plastic spaceship game is because he is a bad person? Screw that.

Heheh, but doesn't xbear have a PhD in Nukular Fizziks from Cambridge? We should probably just take his word for it.

it's possible statistically for a player to experience a very bad streak of lower than average rolls. however if you keep rolling eventually it will be averaged by a streak of good rolls.

there's no such thing as bad luck, but you may have some bad karma. the best way to obviate that is to be generous. generosity brings about good karma in the end

Yeah, so that second half is a big old pile of bull. Also, you realise that behind your quasi religious moralistic claptrap is the implication that the OP's dice are failing him in his plastic spaceship game is because he is a bad person? Screw that.

OP: What you're experiencing is selection bias driven by the fact that the human brain remembers negative experiences far better than it does positive. There's no basis in fact for luck, good or bad, it's just that you're not remembering the times you do roll evades because a combat round where he rolls hit hit crit and you roll two natural evades off two green dice still results in you losing a shield, and who cares it's just another round of shooting. But if you roll zero evades and he one shots your Phantom with a direct hit, that sticks in your head.

That's probably also why you think only your green dice hate you. Even great red dice rolls probably aren't going to be game defining. If you roll four out of four hits naturally against, say, Biggs, and he rolls evade focus, converts an eyeball and loses two shields, that's not very memorable, despite he fact that it's almost as unlikely as rolling four blanks.

Ultimately, you either have to accept that everyone is dealing with the exact same dice as you are, or fly a list where dice are less significant, as people have suggested.

did I say he was a bad person? you said I implied he was a bad person, because you think bad karma = bad person. that's not true.

it's possible statistically for a player to experience a very bad streak of lower than average rolls. however if you keep rolling eventually it will be averaged by a streak of good rolls.

there's no such thing as bad luck, but you may have some bad karma. the best way to obviate that is to be generous. generosity brings about good karma in the end

Yeah, so that second half is a big old pile of bull. Also, you realise that behind your quasi religious moralistic claptrap is the implication that the OP's dice are failing him in his plastic spaceship game is because he is a bad person? Screw that.

Heheh, but doesn't xbear have a PhD in Nukular Fizziks from Cambridge? We should probably just take his word for it.

so physicists cannot be spiritual or religious? I see. I guess I didn't learn that in Cambridge, my bad. I'll turn in my degree at first occasion, since I don't conform to your established parameters for having a PhD in physics.