Yeah but you can't look at it in isolation because it doesn't exist in isolation.I think the difference though, is that rhymerball can be played around some, can be handled by squadrons of your own, what have you. There are a larger variety of methods to deal with it. DeMSU with first player, that triple tap is a foregone conclusion unless you brought your own five ship list or out bid your opponent. And that leads to frustruting/unenjoyable gaming experiences. There are great games that come down to the wire and you look across the table and say "wow well played man, I don't even know what I could have done differently" and thats good and everyone feels great. With DeMSU against some lists its like "Wow, well played but then as long as you didn't competely screw the pooch there was nothing I could do anyway" and that feels terrible for 50 percent of the people involved.
I hear you.
What we want is for the wins/losses to be determined by player skill, rather than (net-)builds and dice.
But in this discussion we're talking specifically about the Demolisher title card, not the DeMSU list. I'm sure that someone is going to find an Achilles heel of the DeMSU list other than outbidding, and I think there's already someone talking about that. But is it really Demolisher on her own that is breaking the game? If so, why hasn't the game been broken since Wave 1?
I believe we are talking about demolisher as a result of rise of the DeMSU list, which coincidentaly answers your question about why it wasn't OP in wave 1. I think if you look the discussion as a whole, you'll find that most of the valid arguments regarding a Demolisher nerf center around its function within that archtype, and as such there is little point to trying to sever concerns about the DeMSU from the Title card. We talk about nerfing Demo because its the easiest knob to turn on that list, with the least far reaching consequences.
If its just demo in a vacuum, the card is fine. In most lists its just a little more difficult to play around. In DeMSU, there is a legitimate concern it might be broken. Thats the crux, imo, of this discussion. So far the jury is out, but I do believe there is more than enough evidence for us to take a long look at it.
Like any ecosystem, you change one thing and it will have far reaching repercussions, so by definition you cannot make a change "in a vacuum". It's a fallacy to just pick out demo. Look at it this way, it would just as effectively break the archetype if raiders cost 5-10 more points, making it difficult to implement the MSU bit of DeMSU (possibly impossible). Would that be fair to lists that have raiders in Squadron control roles? or as a spare activation? No. Raider doesn't exist in a vacuum either!
I specifically state that we aren't looking at demo in a vacuum and why we aren't, and then specifically state we are looking at demo because it has the least far reaching consequences. Your argument about the raider is a pretty good reason to look hard at demo. I'm going to explain why I think demo makes the most sense to look at, some of the dangers therein, and I'm gonna ramble so maybe get a soda;
If we take as given that DeMSU is broken (which is still not at all a given, but just bear with me), we then lookat what makes it work, because these are the potential knobs designers can turn for balance purposes;
High activations
Low bid
Demolisher kit; Demo, IO, Exp launcher (or ordinance of your choice), ord experts, ET
Dice manipulating commander (Vader or Screed)
You already pointed out in your raider example why we probably shouldnt turn the point cost knob on the base ships involved, and bid is pretty tough to balance at the design point, lets look at components. I'd be remiss not to point out that flotillas may either address or exacerbate the activation issue, but since we don't know yet we can't really consider them too much. FFG can, thankfully. The commanders are fine, IMO. Vader is pretty expensive and screed is good but at least imo, not OP. Plus touching him hits the imperials on the whole, not just this archtype and we want to avoid that as best we can. Since again, we have decided for the sake of this argument that a knob MUST be turned for the sake of balance, lets look at the dreaded Demo, piece by piece;
Engine Techs- I don't think anyone really wants to see this card messed with.
Ordinance- black dice are high risk(get in close), high reward(peanut butter murder time) for a reason. Plus, would require sweeping changes to multiple cards, and would effect both factions. Pass.
Intel Officer- Good, not OP.
Ordinance Experts- Oh man these guys are so gold, and so cheap. And that dice manipulation is definetely a big part of this type. But touching these mean you also hurt raiders, vic and isd-1s (in theory), and mc30s. So lets hold off.
Which leaves us at Demolisher. If we turn this knob, we can tweak the archtype with what appears to be the least amount of collateral damage. It creates more options on the imperial side the way blizzard creates more options in talent trees, by taking your really good option away, which is definetely not ideal. But imp MSU can certainly still be a thing, the same way rebel MSU can be a thing, depending on how you tweak it.
If you take shoot-move away, you probably kill the archtype. But you also probably give way to the great trc90 uprising of 2016, in which we discover how many of those models can fit inside the dark side of an opponents sither. Probably too heavy handed.
You can introduce a new upgrade/upgrades meant to counter it. In general, this is my favorite knob, because it doesn't get rid of anything that already existed. It has its own dangers though, because if the cure is worse then the disease everyone just calls in sick.
Some folks have mentioned errata'ing the et shot. Thats certainly a very measured approach, only hits demo, and the only real concern is if its not strong enough an action. So far in this thread, its probably the best overall option IF, after we look at the data, it is clear we actually have a problem on our hands.
Please remember most of the above operates on the assumption that the DeMSU archtype actually requires a fix, which is not a position I'm actually taking. My position is that its something worth looking at, and if there is an issue, Demolisher is the most sensible balance knob to turn barring a future release that fixes the issue.
TL;DR - ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
