I think constantly complaining about dice is quite silly but there are certainly games that can objectively be looked at as being unduly influenced by the dice. Occasionally there's that game where nobody makes huge tactical or maneuvering errors but one set of dice is just pure blanks. It's frustrating when that happens but part of the game and honestly rare that the dice actually hurt you more than errors in decision making.

Play a couple games and count your green dice. Really puts it into perspective.

I have had games with

4 evades out of 32 rolls

and

24 evades out of 29 (I apologized to my opponent for this one)

But I am usually just about average.

Another thing people focus on is games where they roll poorly in the beginning and lose a ship but the rolls average out by the end of the game. They say that the green dice screwed them, when they really rolled perfectly fine but just had one or two bad crucial rolls.

And ignore that it's happening on the red dice as well. If your Evades are matched to their Hits you're ok, if they're mismatched you'll blow up.

The greatest thing here is that when you "overdamage" you blow the foe

and when you "overdodge" you just spent your luck in vain

The greatest thing here is that when you "overdamage" you blow the foe

green dice? Variance?

I'm afraid I have no idea what you're talking about

Do I see a dead Kwing in that last one?

Do I see a dead Kwing in that last one?

ner just a little disorientated from slapping all the little ties with those massive, model-clipping wings

there are 3 dead Ties, though

Of course you are all wrong for blaming the dice. Now Murphy on the other hand...

Of course you are all wrong for blaming the dice. Now Murphy on the other hand...

Hasn't Robocop suffered enough?

Of course you are all wrong for blaming the dice. Now Murphy on the other hand...

Hasn't Robocop suffered enough?

That's a reference youngsters probably won't get. Of course now I just made myself feel old.

Of course you are all wrong for blaming the dice. Now Murphy on the other hand...

Hasn't Robocop suffered enough?

That's a reference youngsters probably won't get. Of course now I just made myself feel old.

There's a chance they'll "partially" get it, due to the crappy 2014 remake.

Of course you are all wrong for blaming the dice. Now Murphy on the other hand...

Hasn't Robocop suffered enough?

That's a reference youngsters probably won't get. Of course now I just made myself feel old.

There's a chance they'll "partially" get it, due to the crappy 2014 remake.

Frankly, I've been hanging out with youngsters a lot, and it surprised me how many of them have seen the original Robocop - and I mean like 15-23, were born after it was made youngsters.

Admittedly most of them got curious after the Robocop statue in detroit, or being annoyed about ED-209 references, but heck, any chance to make people watch a decent movie.

EDIT: Oh, uh, I mean green dice. I actually have a chibi Darth Vader I will hold in my other hand and point at the dice when I have a crucial roll I need to make; he's found new ways to motivate them so far!

My worst dice luck ever was in a game of Warhammer 40k, where I failed 47 out of 53 3+ saving throws, and (though I didn't keep as close of track of this because I was counting my casualties not his) also missed at least 50% of my of my 3+ to-hit rolls as well. At first it was odd, then annoying, then HILARIOUS, and I didn't quit just to see how badly the dice would fail me that day.

Losing a game 2000 points to 300, that's how badly they failed me. What's worse is that they were "Official Games Workshop Dice" I'd won in a tourney, and now they are mostly dust which I use as material components for the Peruvian Dice Hex.

If you aren't in a competitive environment, it can feel almost as bad to get the opposite end of the stick. My dice were so hot and my opponents were so cold last night at my FLGS that I felt bad winning twice in a row. I feel like we flew about equally well, but there was no way to tell because the dice swung it so hard in my favor. How can I fly better in practice for regionals if I can just luck my way through every game I play?

I just know they are going to get cold eventually.

It's better to be lucky than good, it's best to be both.

It's better to be lucky than good, it's best to be both.

I won a fair amount of money in Magic by following that motto.

Another thing people focus on is games where they roll poorly in the beginning and lose a ship but the rolls average out by the end of the game. They say that the green dice screwed them, when they really rolled perfectly fine but just had one or two bad crucial rolls.

No, in that case the green dice did screw the player. In X-wing, it not only matters how you roll but when you roll well or poorly. If the dice consistently land to your opponent's advantage early in a match, you can lose ships more quickly than expected (or your opponent might lose them more slowly). That means you have less firepower than expected (or your opponent has more), which throws off the tempo of play.

EDIT: I'll throw in an example. A few months ago I was playing a friendly practice game with a Palpatine Aces list against a TIE swarm. Fel raced up and turned in for a flank, boosting into Range 3 and barrel rolling behind an asteroid. He could be attacked by two Academy pilots, both of which had evade tokens. As the last attack of the first round of combat, an Academy Pilot rolled [kaboom][kaboom], and Fel completely blanked all six dice. Autothrusters canceled one [kaboom], and for the other one I rolled Major Explosion into a Direct Hit.

That's incredibly good luck, with odds of thousands to one against--and it happened so early that Fel died without doing any damage at all. If exactly the same event happened in the middle of the game instead, it would still be frustrating, but Fel would have had an impact and a chance to earn back his cost.

Another thing people focus on is games where they roll poorly in the beginning and lose a ship but the rolls average out by the end of the game. They say that the green dice screwed them, when they really rolled perfectly fine but just had one or two bad crucial rolls.

No, in that case the green dice did screw the player. In X-wing, it not only matters how you roll but when you roll well or poorly. If the dice consistently land to your opponent's advantage early in a match, you can lose ships more quickly than expected (or your opponent might lose them more slowly). That means you have less firepower than expected (or your opponent has more), which throws off the tempo of play.

EDIT: I'll throw in an example. A few months ago I was playing a friendly practice game with a Palpatine Aces list against a TIE swarm. Fel raced up and turned in for a flank, boosting into Range 3 and barrel rolling behind an asteroid. He could be attacked by two Academy pilots, both of which had evade tokens. As the last attack of the first round of combat, an Academy Pilot rolled [kaboom][kaboom], and Fel completely blanked all six dice. Autothrusters canceled one [kaboom], and for the other one I rolled Major Explosion into a Direct Hit.

That's incredibly good luck, with odds of thousands to one against--and it happened so early that Fel died without doing any damage at all. If exactly the same event happened in the middle of the game instead, it would still be frustrating, but Fel would have had an impact and a chance to earn back his cost.

But it's impossible for dice to screw anyone, they're just dice. If poor dice variance costs you the game there are only two acceptable responses:

1) *shrug*

2) "should I have avoided rolling those dice?"

The only reason the +/- of dice variance should really matter is by factoring them into the lessons you learn from the game and how they inform future decisions.

Dice are dice and I have yet to play an opponent (including the heralded Blail Blerg) who doesn't or won't express frustration when those dice don't go their way. Which of course happens to all of,us who play. Sometimes your luck is good, sometimes your luck is bad, sometimes it's good or bad at just the right time (or wrong time) but mostly it's right around what the averages say it will be. What I am more interested in is how to determine the quality of a list (for those of us who aren't netlisters) while accounting for the statistical variance of your dice over those first game(s) with a new list.

Oh, and as someone who has played Blail Blerg about a zillion times (maybe more than any other single person) he's luckier than the king of the Leprechauns pushing a cart full of horseshoes and rabbits feet through a never ending field of four leaf clovers.

He's also a very good player who rarely needs to rely on luck.

But it's impossible for dice to screw anyone, they're just dice. If poor dice variance costs you the game there are only two acceptable responses:

1) *shrug*

2) "should I have avoided rolling those dice?"

The only reason the +/- of dice variance should really matter is by factoring them into the lessons you learn from the game and how they inform future decisions.

I tend to play the odds when I make decisions in X-wing. With a focus token and Autothrusters, the most likely result for Fel was 5 evade results. The odds of getting fewer than 2 evade results were about 350:1 against. (I didn't calculate 350:1 in my head, of course, but I did figure out that the average on my green dice would be a little less than 4.75, against an average of 1.5 successes for my opponent.) I took that bet, because if I had won, I would have gotten an undamaged Fel in an excellent attack position.

It's easy to rationalize post-hoc that I should have played it differently, but I don't think that's true. It was a huge swing in my opponent's favor, but if I play the game out a hundred times, I shouldn't see a swing that big more than once or twice. And when I talk about getting screwed by the dice, that's what I mean: being blindsided by an event so unlikely that you shouldn't even include it in the set of outcomes you consider in a given round.

You might appreciate this blog of mine:

http://stayontheleader.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/in-my-experience-theres-no-such-thing.html

I look at pretty much exactly this subject.

I think that article of yours is fundamental in understanging the dice aspect of the game. it certainly changed how I view it.

green dice? Variance?

I'm afraid I have no idea what you're talking about

Example of "Situational" luck.

Played my brother. I had Han. In something like 7 of 8 attack rolls, Han had 1 hit or less on his initial roll so I kicked in Han's ability. I averaged about 2.5 hits on those re-rolls. My brother could not believe my "luck".

The thing is though, on average, my red dice were just about spot on in their distribution of hits to blanks to eyes. So was I lucky, or did I just an ability that let me ignore some of my bad luck?

Soontir Fel can convert a blank blank focus roll to 4 evades.

Soontir Fel is not green dice centric. Stop repeating this lie.

But it's impossible for dice to screw anyone, they're just dice. If poor dice variance costs you the game there are only two acceptable responses:

1) *shrug*

2) "should I have avoided rolling those dice?"

The only reason the +/- of dice variance should really matter is by factoring them into the lessons you learn from the game and how they inform future decisions.

I tend to play the odds when I make decisions in X-wing. With a focus token and Autothrusters, the most likely result for Fel was 5 evade results. The odds of getting fewer than 2 evade results were about 350:1 against. (I didn't calculate 350:1 in my head, of course, but I did figure out that the average on my green dice would be a little less than 4.75, against an average of 1.5 successes for my opponent.) I took that bet, because if I had won, I would have gotten an undamaged Fel in an excellent attack position.

It's easy to rationalize post-hoc that I should have played it differently, but I don't think that's true. It was a huge swing in my opponent's favor, but if I play the game out a hundred times, I shouldn't see a swing that big more than once or twice. And when I talk about getting screwed by the dice, that's what I mean: being blindsided by an event so unlikely that you shouldn't even include it in the set of outcomes you consider in a given round.

Sure, so that's a case of "shrug", then. You made the right call - the play that worked 99% of the time, but this was was the 1% that it didn't work. It's still the right call. But also, you weren't 'screwed'. You didn't make a play that couldn't fail, you made a play that ALMOST couldn't fail.

In a game with variance then whether a decision was right or wrong should not be influenced by whether the outcome is positive or negative.

I've lost $2,000 by making 'the right play' in Magic and having unforeseen factors turn it against me. I'd still make the same play every time, though, because with the available information it was the right play to make.

Sure, so that's a case of "shrug", then.

Well, shrug and be very thankful it happened in a practice game and not a Regional final.

Soontir Fel can convert a blank blank focus roll to 4 evades.

Soontir Fel is not green dice centric. Stop repeating this lie.

As can a Saber Squadron Pilot. What's your point?