John and I have been sparring pretty regularly as we practiced up for the Adepticon tournament. Earlier on I was still regularly beating him but the more experience he got against my fleet the better he's done, winning the last sparring match we had pretty decisively. I'm not quite sure how I would have expected a game between us to go. I'd give it roughly 50/50 odds. His fleet is a rough matchup (slippery two-dice bombers, Rieekan, multi-activated Nym, TRC Salvation is a nightmare at medium or short range) and his objective suite makes me cry, which is what you want against a bid war fleet.
That's roughly been my path with Rieekan. I got crushed early on, but I've started to really settle in. He's a very different commander. Like Ackbar, he's a bit newbie friendly. He lets you make some mistakes without having to paying for them too badly, which Ackbar just makes lining up shots very easy. They both, however, don't seem to do as well with experienced Armada players on the whole. Unlike Ackbar, however, Rieekan seems to have a graduate level, but to get there you have to almost completely reprogram your brain.
That has been my experience with Rieekan as well. Activation order isn't as straightforward as it is with the other commanders.