Title sums it up pretty well tbh.

Deadeye (1)
Proton Torpedoes (4)
R4 Agromech (2)
Guidance Chips (0)

Comes up pretty often right now

I'd be really interested, how the proper order of using all effects is.

Always assuming you want to deal max hits. Sometimes you maybe will only need 3 for example, which changes things a lot.

E.g. you roll 1 hit, 1 eye and 2 blanks. You want to use the TL for sure, but is it correct to reroll the Eye, or leave it as it stands and just reroll the two blanks?

In case you reroll just the 2 blanks you have 2 hits and 1 crit for sure, the fourth result is wild.

In case you reroll all 3 dice you get 2 hits for sure and everything else is open.

I'm assure that both times chances are high that you'll get 4 hits/crits, but I'm curious anyway what the better play here is.

Also, say you only roll 1 eye and 3 blanks. Same here - reroll the eye or not?

1 eye = 1 crit. Why reroll a crit?

Keep the eye, definitely. That's not an eye, it's a crit.

Think about it this way: The eye is already a guaranteed crit. There is no benefit if you reroll and get more eyes (since you already spend your focus), so the one eye is already the best possible result for that one die. It would be pretty unlikely to reroll all 3 and get a better result (rolling multiple crits). Easy call imo.

Yeah, just re-roll the 2 blanks and change 1 to a hit via chips if necessary

Um well imo it's not that clear actually.

Sure, there are situations where it's easy to keep the eye, since the crit is much more valuable. However sometimes there's not much difference between a hit and a crit.

Since you reroll more dice, odds are high a new eye will show up. In case you just reroll the 2 banks, there's still a good chance a new eye will show up. If my main goal would be to get max hits out of my attack, ignoring crits, at least I'm not sure which one is the better option. Especially in case there's only 1 eye and 3 banks.

I'm not saying rerolling the eye is correct and I don't want to sound rude, but most responses here seems to be simply opinions, none sounded funded if I'm honest ...

Um well imo it's not that clear actually.

Sure, there are situations where it's easy to keep the eye, since the crit is much more valuable. However sometimes there's not much difference between a hit and a crit.

Since you reroll more dice, odds are high a new eye will show up. In case you just reroll the 2 banks, there's still a good chance a new eye will show up. If my main goal would be to get max hits out of my attack, ignoring crits, at least I'm not sure which one is the better option. Especially in case there's only 1 eye and 3 banks.

I'm not saying rerolling the eye is correct and I don't want to sound rude, but most responses here seems to be simply opinions, none sounded funded if I'm honest ...

Nope, you're not going to get a higher number of hits by rerolling what is already a crit.

Indeed, with Proton Torps, I would always apply the eye>crit modification before deciding any rerolls. There's no reason not to.

I'm not convinced you shouldn't re-roll the eye. We need some stats in here... stat!

Surly,

Try it this way. I know they don't but let's assume that <crit>=<hit> because this is what you are basically asking. "However sometimes there's not much difference between a hit and a crit" Would you re-roll any hits that come up? Of course not. So if <eye> = <crit>=<hit>, why re-roll the <eye>?

I'm not convinced you shouldn't re-roll the eye. We need some stats in here... stat!

Why would you? It's not an eye. It's a crit. There's no reason why you wouldn't immediately turn it into a crit with the Torpedo ability under normal circumstances (possibly if there were a pilot or ability that cancels crits first you might want to reroll it, but even then, the best you can do is turn it into a crit or a hit).

You literaly cannot get a better result than an eye which you can turn into a crit.

This isn't like eyes under normal circumstances - where you might get a better result you can use to avoid spending a focus token, or when you don't have a focus token.

This is a totally free part of the torpedo.

Can anyone suggest a logic of why you wouldn't immediately turn it into a crit before deciding any rerolls?

I'm not convinced you shouldn't re-roll the eye. We need some stats in here... stat!

Why would you? It's not an eye. It's a crit. There's no reason why you wouldn't immediately turn it into a crit with the Torpedo ability under normal circumstances (possibly if there were a pilot or ability that cancels crits first you might want to reroll it, but even then, the best you can do is turn it into a crit or a hit).

You literaly cannot get a better result than an eye which you can turn into a crit.

This isn't like eyes under normal circumstances - where you might get a better result you can use to avoid spending a focus token, or when you don't have a focus token.

This is a totally free part of the torpedo.

Can anyone suggest a logic of why you wouldn't immediately turn it into a crit before deciding any rerolls?

If i understand him correctly it's for the (unlikely) scenario that you reroll the eye into a natural hit/crit while also roll an eye result on one of the other 2 blanks, meaning you would get to convert that eye while you still have the (additional) hit/crit result from the eye you rerolled originally (and this is assuming you have to use GC on the other rerolled die you didnt get the eye result on). This seems like pretty much the only time you would prefer having rerolled the eye.

Can anyone suggest a logic of why you wouldn't immediately turn it into a crit before deciding any rerolls?

Because Proton Torpedoes only converts one result.

The reroll can give focus results. If the focus result is rerolled it can become a hit, which means any focus results from the rest of the reroll can be converted by Proton Torpedoes. If you don't reroll the focus result and the reroll on the other dice turns up a second focus you can't convert both. It's a possible scenario, but if it's more probable than no net effect/wasting your crit I don't know.

Whether it's better to reroll the focus to gamble on it becoming a hit and another die becoming a focus would require someone to run the numbers, but my gut instinct is probably not.

Can anyone suggest a logic of why you wouldn't immediately turn it into a crit before deciding any rerolls?

Because Proton Torpedoes only converts one result.

The reroll can give focus results. If the focus result is rerolled it can become a hit, which means any focus results from the rest of the reroll can be converted by Proton Torpedoes. If you don't reroll the focus result and the reroll on the other dice turns up a second focus you can't convert both. It's a possible scenario, but if it's more probable than no net effect/wasting your crit I don't know.

Whether it's better to reroll the focus to gamble on it becoming a hit and another die becoming a focus would require someone to run the numbers, but my gut instinct is probably not.

But you still have guidance chips to convert the (2nd) eye in this hypothetical scenario, meaning you woul need to roll badly on the other rerolled die also (so you would prefer to use GC on that). It just seems like a real corner case.

Math as requested.

Raw dice results before using Target Lock or Guidance Chips: Hit, Eye, Blank, Blank

OP chooses to reroll the two blanks.

TLDR: Expect to score 3.75 hits

I did the math on this for the Rear Admiral. If you have 3 negatives + 1 eye, you reroll ALL four dice. But if you only have 2 negatives, a hit and an eye (or 1 negative, 2 hits and an eye) you reroll just the negative results. And this was without Guidance Chips. If anything, they would push you more towards never rerolling the eye.

I have to admit that I'm just happy there is a thread about using Ordnance that doesn't just talk about it sucking.

Follow-up on above.

OP chooses to reroll the two blanks and the eye.

TLDR: Expect to score 3.77 hits

OP is greedy. Right after the math was done for his scenario, he requested for another...

Look, generally speaking, if you have exactly one eye and any number of blanks, it is always mathematically correct to reroll the eye if you just want max hits. However, the more dice you reroll, the more variance you introduce to your rolls. Mathematical expectation is not gospel; sometimes to avoid variance, you may choose a sub-optimal option.

Take OP's initial roll for example: Hit, Eye, 2 Blanks with TL and GC to go.

Should he reroll only the 2 blanks, he has a 75% chance of 4 hits and 25% chances of 3 hits.

If he rerolls 2 blanks and the eye, his chances increases to 78+%, however, he also introduced a tiny chance (1.56%) that he rolls three blanks and have only 2 hits.

Math as requested...

Confirmed, overall. Technically it's better if you reroll all focus and blank results, but the difference in expected damage is extremely small.

So for upper level events when all the chips are in the pot and the clock is ticking, swing for the variance and hope it comes out high. Heard it.

Math as requested...

Confirmed, overall. Technically it's better if you reroll all focus and blank results, but the difference in expected damage is extremely small.

It's 0.53% more damage to be exact. Not worth the risko imo, but it's personal choice for sure.

Math as requested...

Confirmed, overall. Technically it's better if you reroll all focus and blank results, but the difference in expected damage is extremely small.

It's 0.53% more damage to be exact. Not worth the risko imo, but it's personal choice for sure.

I guess like everything else in X-wing....it's situational.

Rerolling the initial focus is only useful in situations where you're left with a second focus result after rerolling, but it only makes things worse if you turn your focus to a blank and have no other foci to convert. How likely is this?

For this to even be worth considering we need to roll a focus and more than one dud result (blanks or extra foci). Otherwise we'd just Proton Torpedo the focus and Guidance Chip the other.

First let's take a situation where we roll a focus, one good result (a hit or a crit) and two dud results (a blank or an additional focus). We need to decide if it's beneficial to reroll the focus or not.

When we reroll the two dice there are 16 possible arrangements (4 possible results to the power of 2 dice).

Those arrangements are BB, BF, BH, BC, FB, FF, FH, FC, HB, HF, HH, HC, CB, CF, CH, CC. They're not all equally likely (HH is most likely at 14% and CC least at 1.5%) but their probabilities all add to 100%.

For also rerolling our initial focus result to increase our damage, rerolling the focus must generate a hit, and rerolling the other two dice must generate a focus (for Proton Torpedo) and either a focus or blank for Guidance Chips. Otherwise we've either changed nothing by rerolling the focus or we've made things worse.

Three arrangements meet the criteria for improving our roll by rerolling the focus: FB, BF and FF. They have a total probability of 18.8%. When you consider that you only have a 50% of improving the focus on reroll you have a 9.4% chance of making things better by rerolling the focus.

To deal less damage (fewer hits, I'm not considering crit -> hit here) you must reroll your focus to a blank, then have no focus for Proton Torpedoes to modify and another blank for Guidance Chips to modify (otherwise it modifies your blanked focus back to a hit). There are five arrangements that contain at least one blank and no focus (BB, BH, HB, BC and CB) with a total probability of 31.3%. The chance of getting one of those arrangements and rerolling your focus to blank is 7.8%.

To downgrade a crit to a hit, you must reroll your focus to a hit and generate no focus results. The nine arrangements that contain no focus are BB, BH, BC, HB, HH, HC, CB, CH, CC, and they have a total probability of 56%. The chance of rerolling to a hit is 37.5%, so overall your chances of downgrading a crit is 21.1%.

In summary, if you reroll the focus as well as two other dice, you have -

9.4% chance of increasing the damage you deal by 1,
61.7% chance of changing nothing,
21.1% chance of reducing a crit to a hit,

7.8% chance of reducing the damage you deal by 1,

- relative to not rerolling your focus.

If you roll a focus and three dud results you have 64 arrangements to deal with (4³), so I won't go through this one in detail.

19.5% chance of increasing your damage,

42.7% chance of no change,

15.8% chance of downgrading your damage,
7.4% chance of reducing your damage,

- relative to not rerolling.

Thanks, much appreciated

To expand on Tangoraven a bit (decided to calculations after he made the first table):

===== Case of rolling 1Hit, 1Eye, Blank, Blank on initial roll =====

CHOICE: Reroll only blanks

4 hits result (after modifications) 75%

3 hits result (after modifications) 25%

Expected value = 3,75 (excluding crit value)

CHOICE: Reroll Eye and blanks

4 hits result (after modifications) 78%

3 hits result (after modifications) 20%

2 hit result (after modifications) 2%

Expected value = 3,76 (excluding crit value). My result varies here, probably rounding?

Chance of not getting any eyeballs to convert in crits 42,19% (this is important if you need a crit, for example, for Boba. This % is excluding the chance that the die you chose to reroll, rolls into a crit instead of hit, but that chance is 12,5%. And then the question is if you need only 1 crit (which the other dice can also provide) or more, and then this calculation will spiral out of control fast. But bottom line of this extra addendum: if you REALLY need the crit, keep the eye).

===== Case of rolling 1 Eye, Blank, Blank, Blank on initial roll =====

CHOICE: Reroll only blanks

4 hits result (after modifications) 50%

3 hits result (after modifications) 37,5%

2 hit result (after modifications) 12,5%

Expected value = 3,38 (excluding crit value)

CHOICE: Reroll Eye and blanks

4 hits result (after modifications) 59,4%

3 hits result (after modifications) 31,3%

2 hit result (after modifications) 8,98%

1 hit result (after modifications) 0,39%

Expected value = 3,5 (excluding crit value) EDIT: forgot to change this value from my copy paste above. corrected.

Chance of not getting any eyeballs to convert in crits 31,64% (see above, closer when everything else is taken into account (now you have 3 other dice to provide a crit, beside the 1 die which is the debate of the discussion. However the higher number of hits you need in addition to needing a crit, the lower the chance if you reroll the eyeball. What I mean is, if you need a crit and at least 2 hits, the eyeball becomes more important again)

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What 'is better' is dependent on your risk-reward profile, the board state (do you really need to have Boba push a crit through to remove an opponent's deadeye? Does the ship have full shields and are crits thus meaningless) etc.

If shields are gone, it is almost definately better to keep the eye since the crit has a pretty decent chance to give value in the form of 2 damage or a game changing crit, bumping the 'EV' of those scenarios higher.

EDIT: funny how so many posts were made while I was typing this up, haha I guess this is a really interesting topic to discuss (probably since you can learn how to do the maximum potential damage while not having to become better at the game).