This is why I love this game. The meta is based on the players in your area, not some auto win list like other miniatures game.
In our area a 395 bid was huge. Then one guy started coming with 388 and all hell broke loose. And in our group the bid is to go 2nd not 1st.
Some guys started building lists to go 1st with 399 and 400 points. From what I've read on the forums some groups bid to go 1st. So if my group bid 388 to go 2nd and played in these other groups we would be shorting our fleet points.
I don't think you can really nail down what and how you should bid.
There seems to be a mind game (at least with us) as to what to bid. I myself just cannot bid low like 388. So I started building fleets that go first. And now because of that the bids are starting to come back up again.
If this game was highly unbalanced you would never see this kind of thing.
Point is you can bid one thing in your area, and the next area may have something totally different going on. Only way to know is to get out and play, and watch the "out of game" game develop.
Even how people build fleets has been changing just to beat the guys that always win.
Man I love this game.