The Paradigm Shift of Red Dice Article

By Ken at Sunrise, in X-Wing

I posit that if we continue to add expansions, that it will become impossible to build for everything, and that there will always be some bad matchups.

I would totally be fine if every list had one (or several) lists that it statistically can't beat unless one player is amazing and the other is terrible. The problem is this low-health, high agility ships are bad against almost EVERYTHING except other low-health, high-agility ships. If you make a list that is heavily based on these ships you will quickly discover it is very, very difficult to do well in competitive play (not talking about casual play).

We need upgrades that at least improve the odds that a list of mostly low-health, high-agility ships can at least be "competitive" in serious, competitive play.

well, that's basically the pamphlet for Palp Aces

Palp Aces, where the points are made up and the dice don't matter :)

also crackshot, on the offensive side of things.

Edited by ficklegreendice

I feel that he's right on a few parts. Most particularly the part that an attack + focus just isn't enough these days. The trend towards hyper-accurate attacks is a bad one imo so I can agree with that.

I think it stems from the fact that red dice determine both if the attack hits and how much damage it does. Increasing that sole stat (how many hits you get) becomes the most important when building a list. Because if you can't roll enough, not only will you not hit, but you'll also deal 0 damage.

For example, how different would it be if a tie fighter had a high chance of 'hitting' the enemy, but only dealt a maximum of 1 or 2 damage? Any 2 att ship for that matter. It'd be pretty close to the mechanics used in imperial assault and armada, which were made after the lessons of x-wing.

But what can be done about it now? I really don't know. But I think the Theorist is right in another aspect: it's going to get worse if it doesn't get better.

Agreed, the game would not only be more realistically accurate but would bring some interesting mechanics if the attack was based on agility. If you can't keep the target inside your crosshairs, you can't hit it, no matter how many guns you have.

Sure, this can't be changed now the game rules are done, but we can experiment with custom systems.

Read it. Found it interesting. Hoped to discuss it. Got 11 pages of hate and character attacks with some sound theororizing and discussion in between. Was confused and decided to offer this anyway since people really couldn't hate it any more than other people's thoughts:

Jousting is dead.

Maybe it never really was alive.

Look back on even wave 1 and wave 2 and see who actually "jousted" and if they could do anything but joust.

I think there is a great deal of thought going into "jousting" at this stage when it really has no place in this modern game. TLTs don't joust they TURRET and control. Look at all "good jousters" (if there are any left) and they don't just joust. Just jousting has never really won when other options were available; jousting really only "won" when there wasn't better things to do or you had brought rock to a paper fight.

BBBBZ and classic swarm are the "last" big jousting lists. B's pack 14-18 red dice and 36hp. Swarm packs 14-24 dice and 21-24hp but protected by 3 AG. Both bring more dice to the fight, take up more real estate, have more arcs, more bodies to distribute, blocks for days, and BR. If these lists "just" joust, they lose too.

Jousting is gone if it ever really existed as a legitimate strategy rather than something that was done because there weren't other good options.

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PS has always been an issue. It seems to be one of the continued issues. It is also a core game mechanic that can't be changed. The hope is that mid-PS pilots of the future will all get EPTs and most get abilities that are useful in winning the PS war and let their PS beat generics. FFG either bent figured this out or doesn't want it to happen even though that's the biggest space they have yet to fill in ending the PS war that started with "Bloody Daggers" but instead of settling in RGPs (PS6) jumped straight to 9 or 1.

I liked the comparison earlier regarding a PS9 pilot beating 8 PS 1 pilots and still beating 6+ PS6-8 pilots. I think Vader should Ace most other pilots. Howlrunner+ scourge+ mauler+ Backstabber working together should scare any ace in the galaxy. I don't have a solution to the PS war but I do know it's a problem.

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Maths:

It does a great job at telling you how much more you have to fly the dish off your ship when faced with a more efficient opponent. That's all it was ever meant to do. MJ is already on super secret math sauce 3.141526 and it's getting really tough to even math everything and every combo. The math is proving that jousting isn't a thing if success is also your thing. There always needs to be more and the new more is mind meltingly complicated.

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Any fix or shift will require the same level of "heat" but not enough to melt our beloved plastic spaceships.

Those are my additions to the conversation. Love it, hate it, like it, or talk about breakfast. Just don't take it, your response, or yourself too seriously and we'll all fly better in the end.

Edited by Rakky Wistol

I agree, and I think part of the problem is the prevalence of arc dodging ability. I think the game needs to get back to dials. I really think it needs a reboot, a 2.0 version, and I think it needs it pretty soon.

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

It is funny that you should say that. Yesterday I was wondering what the game would be like if you had to plan 2 or 3 moves instead of only one.

I feel that he's right on a few parts. Most particularly the part that an attack + focus just isn't enough these days. The trend towards hyper-accurate attacks is a bad one imo so I can agree with that.

I think it stems from the fact that red dice determine both if the attack hits and how much damage it does. Increasing that sole stat (how many hits you get) becomes the most important when building a list. Because if you can't roll enough, not only will you not hit, but you'll also deal 0 damage.

For example, how different would it be if a tie fighter had a high chance of 'hitting' the enemy, but only dealt a maximum of 1 or 2 damage? Any 2 att ship for that matter. It'd be pretty close to the mechanics used in imperial assault and armada, which were made after the lessons of x-wing.

But what can be done about it now? I really don't know. But I think the Theorist is right in another aspect: it's going to get worse if it doesn't get better.

Agreed, the game would not only be more realistically accurate but would bring some interesting mechanics if the attack was based on agility. If you can't keep the target inside your crosshairs, you can't hit it, no matter how many guns you have.

Sure, this can't be changed now the game rules are done, but we can experiment with custom systems.

While I'm generally hugely in favor of accuracy and damage being separate (though I like accuracy modifying damage to a degree) it is extremely hard to get right. The issue is, even when you have it mathematically "correct" (i.e. an inaccurate shot is properly compensated in damage output) such systems still tend to hugely favor the accuracy, which, when you then naturally put it on agile, low damage, cheap, things, tends to result in a game dominated by swarms with little place for expensive heroes.

In theory, something that hits 90% of the time but only deals 2 damage should be about on par with something that hits 60% of the time and deals 3 damage. In practice though, most games don't allow for the kind of attack volume for that to actually work and even when they do, you're still more likely to win a damage race first on the 90%er than having the 60% come up often enough to win.

Not saying its impossible, just that its the kind of thing where I find even very good games based on solid math often mess up. If you get too reliant on math you can forget that while 2 things might be equal over 50 attacks or so, it doesn't matter much to players if the game is determined by 10.

Read it. Found it interesting. Hoped to discuss it. Got 11 pages of hate and character attacks with some sound theororizing and discussion in between. Was confused and decided to offer this anyway since people really couldn't hate it any more than other people's thoughts:

Unfortunately, things can only really be discussed in a meaningful way if they aren't nonsense. I'm sure flat-earthers would love to debate their ideas with scientists til the cows come home, but we don't bother because what they believe has so little basis in reality that it just isn't worth the time.

I really don't see why there needs to be more of a response to that article than 'no' and moving on.

Edited by jimmius

I agree, and I think part of the problem is the prevalence of arc dodging ability. I think the game needs to get back to dials. I really think it needs a reboot, a 2.0 version, and I think it needs it pretty soon.

Jousting is not a strategy, it is a situation that occurs. It is never desireable, but similarly skilled opponents sometimes can't avoid it with certain lists.

I agree, and I think part of the problem is the prevalence of arc dodging ability. I think the game needs to get back to dials. I really think it needs a reboot, a 2.0 version, and I think it needs it pretty soon.

Jousting is boring.

Just rolling dice is no fun, and just moving --> focus is as stale as things can get

Maneuver options keep things interesting, even if it's just boost on jousters brobots/poe

Honestly very boring to get into autoloss situations because your ships can't do **** apart from fling dice.

IMO the game's doing the right thing with "new age" jousters

Scouts that joust with torps; also PWT and block like bastards

Mini aces like omega L and inq combine powerful attacks with great maneuverability

Ordnance carriers like bombers emphasising range control with option bombs for spice

Even Brobots poe (and Xizor who jousts till his mooks die), who can joust and hit n run as needed (esp poe to regen shields)

More strategy, more variety; more interesting

Don't think I'll ever fly a raw jouster again. Closest is feedback Z, but feedback isn't jousting (it isn't even dice), it's blocking and board control

Edited by ficklegreendice

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

It is funny that you should say that. Yesterday I was wondering what the game would be like if you had to plan 2 or 3 moves instead of only one.

It would be Robo Ralley or Robot Turtles. Not that fitting for dogfights. Where pilots in split seconds react to each other.

One thought could be forcing slow freighters to plan more than 1 move ahead. However that is (or rather for them should have been!) represented in a dial with less and worse options.

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

It is funny that you should say that. Yesterday I was wondering what the game would be like if you had to plan 2 or 3 moves instead of only one.

It would be Robo Ralley or Robot Turtles. Not that fitting for dogfights. Where pilots in split seconds react to each other.

One thought could be forcing slow freighters to plan more than 1 move ahead. However that is (or rather for them should have been!) represented in a dial with less and worse options.

If combat wasn't so completely reliant on having actions, the red maneuver system could be used better to represent this as well. It kind of already kind of works this way, but there'd be room to explore the idea further. The Shuttle pretty quickly showed the limits of this design space unfortunately.

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

It is funny that you should say that. Yesterday I was wondering what the game would be like if you had to plan 2 or 3 moves instead of only one.

Wings of Glory plans three moves in advance, sort of.

I need to have a go at Wings of Glory. There are also rules for altitude, right? Looks like a nice game.

Altitude rules are optional but give faster plans, especially with high ceilings, a distinct advantage.

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

Right, but what if you played TIEs vs A Wings or something like that, where each side has only ONE option for repositioning, not two?

I don't mind a bit of flipping or boosting, but the ability to do two of these actions in the one turn almost completely invalidates ships that can only do one or the other (or neither! Poor X Wing...) and that's not a good situation.

If we think of jousting as moving directly toward the enemy, then K turning, then moving toward the enemy and K turning again, and repeating this ad nauseam, then yes, that's boring. But if think of jousting as simply using the dial without repositioning actions then (IMO) it's not boring. It's exciting because every move depends on out-guessing and out-flying your opponent. Adding in an ability to reposition lends weight to the value of pilot skill, and makes it even harder to pin down more agile ships (who generally already have higher agility and a better dial),, but the emphasis is still on your dial. It's still on out-guessing your opponent and out-flying them, since you can only change your heading or position by small amount. But adding the ability to make TWO repositioning moves makes it practically impossible for the 'jousting' ships to get the arc-dodger in their cross-hairs, almost completely removes the out-flying, out-guessing component of the game, and invalidates many ships. It's not a good situation, IMO.

You start to figure out the best jousting patterns. guys: I flew Z missile swarm before chips. I HAD to plan moves at least 2 in advance because of the k-turns. I used to block really hard. Blocks all the time.

But trust me, 20 games of Zs later, you get **** bored of it. What hpapens is that both of you and your opponent learn the extent of each others dials. And its really really really uncommon to get an EFFICIENT move that's also surprising. There's **** surprising moves, which every new player wants to be lauded to the high heavens for, but they like all the ones where you run away in random directions. Whoopdie do. I bet that was REALLY hard to plan well.

go try it yourself. About 5 or 10 games in with just simple ships, you realize that its pretty boring. Pilot abilities help a huge amount. And upgrade variety.

Funny enough I used to think dials were king too. But after a while, dials focused play becomes jousting, and its really really boring. We did these like 2 Ties vs 2Zs or 4 Ties vs 4 Zs for a while, and it really didn't end up being a cool mini game. If you were a player for about a year long, you'd figure out the most efficient turns/k-turns and just do that. It was pretty boring.

Right, but what if you played TIEs vs A Wings or something like that, where each side has only ONE option for repositioning, not two?

I don't mind a bit of flipping or boosting, but the ability to do two of these actions in the one turn almost completely invalidates ships that can only do one or the other (or neither! Poor X Wing...) and that's not a good situation.

If we think of jousting as moving directly toward the enemy, then K turning, then moving toward the enemy and K turning again, and repeating this ad nauseam, then yes, that's boring. But if think of jousting as simply using the dial without repositioning actions then (IMO) it's not boring. It's exciting because every move depends on out-guessing and out-flying your opponent. Adding in an ability to reposition lends weight to the value of pilot skill, and makes it even harder to pin down more agile ships (who generally already have higher agility and a better dial),, but the emphasis is still on your dial. It's still on out-guessing your opponent and out-flying them, since you can only change your heading or position by small amount. But adding the ability to make TWO repositioning moves makes it practically impossible for the 'jousting' ships to get the arc-dodger in their cross-hairs, almost completely removes the out-flying, out-guessing component of the game, and invalidates many ships. It's not a good situation, IMO.

My answer to most people who have a hard time with aces is to learn to block to a mastery of the ability. (I'm not saying you're incapable of it personally btw.) I have not seen a successful tournament winning player at regionals level ever worry about aces.... why? Cuz they're blocking every move.

One of the best builds to learn blocking is Z swarm with some upgrades. You have just the dial, so you get to have your purist game. You better be really really darn good at blocking. Otherwise I assure you, you will lose to a competent player.

This is also where I learned how to plan 2 to 3 turns in advance, due to the need to keep the Zs turning as hard as possible.

Edited by Blail Blerg

You start to figure out the best jousting patterns. guys: I flew Z missile swarm before chips. I HAD to plan moves at least 2 in advance because of the k-turns. I used to block really hard. Blocks all the time.

But trust me, 20 games of Zs later, you get **** bored of it. What hpapens is that both of you and your opponent learn the extent of each others dials. And its really really really uncommon to get an EFFICIENT move that's also surprising. There's **** surprising moves, which every new player wants to be lauded to the high heavens for, but they like all the ones where you run away in random directions. Whoopdie do. I bet that was REALLY hard to plan well.

go try it yourself. About 5 or 10 games in with just simple ships, you realize that its pretty boring. Pilot abilities help a huge amount. And upgrade variety.

See, I disagree strongly because there is ALWAYS the double blind, double bluff game in play, ESPECIALLY when there are limited repositioning abilities. I've played the games you're talking about, for years in fact since the X Wing is my favourite ship and I refuse to not use it just because it sucks, lol.

If you consider that there are X amount of 'efficient' moves, then you can deduce that there are Y amount of efficient options available to the enemy. If you can predict where you think they'll be, based on where they think you'll be, you can select a different option to put them at a disadvantage. And of course, they can predict that you'll do that, so instead they choose a different maneuver. But of course, you predict them predicting that, so you stick to your original maneuver and catch them out.

I mean, I know I don't need to explain all this to you, you've been there and done it. And I'm not advocating for a purely dial-driven maneuver phase. But I think ALL ships should be limited to a single repositioning action per round, and if exceptions are to be granted they need to be extremely niche case and rare.

I just can't agree that using only 'jousting' ships (ones with no repositioning ability) is boring. I love it.

I need to have a go at Wings of Glory. There are also rules for altitude, right? Looks like a nice game.

It's good, but has awful extremities including "I have more upgrade cards than your squad combined" aces.

X-wing is more simplified right now, what's understandable, due to age of it.

yet the shift is seen already. Too many ships use staple upgrade card combos, and never utilize anything else.

Edited by Warpman

What has theorist won?

What has theorist won?

Theoretically?

I need to have a go at Wings of Glory. There are also rules for altitude, right? Looks like a nice game.

It's good, but has awful extremities including "I have more upgrade cards than your squad combined" aces.

I don't understand this "I have more upgrade cards then your squad combined". Are you talking about X-Wing. You can play aces with abilities but generally only for variety rather than the norm. At least when I've played. Just playing aces with every available ability still isn't as complicated as X-Wing but few even do that as the norm.

I find X-Wing as a game less fiddley and simpler rules and play wise but a vastly more complex deck/squad building game when squad build can take far longer then the game. Then, unlike WoG, X-Wing has all of the interactions between upgrades, interrupted actions, timing effects, double taps and nearly every unique pilot having an ability that is completely unique. A few simple cards optionally used is nothing in complexity compared to all this.

Don't get me wrong I like X-Wing but easy is something it moved away from some time ago.

Edited by Ken at Sunrise