No.

The effects on the meta that TLT has is nothing like what the effects of the Phantom had.

How can you say this when the Phantom never won Worlds including pre-nerf era. TLTs won Worlds right away. Even after the nerf to the Phantom, fat PWTs still was dominating and didn't stop them from being the popular choice until the MOV change.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

uh, TLTs did not win worlds

you can't think that that little 24 point Y-wing somehow pulled more weight than V.I regen Poe and r3-a2

Or more weight than the piloting abilities of a three-time (?) world champ...

uh, TLTs did not win worlds

Yeah I'm not sure why people don't get that, but the TLT was only there because it works well on a Stresshog.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

No they haven't. Phantoms are the main reason why the Fat PWT dominated. They drove the swarm out of the meta, which was the main thing that kept the Fat PWT in check. Fat Han's w/VI however are a hard counter for ACD Phantoms, which made them the goto ship for lists.

TLT's on the other hand have put some limits on Fat low agility ships but the MoV change also had a big impact on them.

uh, TLTs did not win worlds

Yeah I'm not sure why people don't get that, but the TLT was only there because it works well on a Stresshog.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

No they haven't. Phantoms are the main reason why the Fat PWT dominated. They drove the swarm out of the meta, which was the main thing that kept the Fat PWT in check. Fat Han's w/VI however are a hard counter for ACD Phantoms, which made them the goto ship for lists.TLT's on the other hand have put some limits on Fat low agility ships but the MoV change also had a big impact on them.

And it turned out that swarms didn't actually very well counter fat turrets after all. Yeah, they can kill Decimators pretty fast but then their 44 point Buzzsaw Phantom that was flown with the Deci could solo down the 6-7 TIEs/Z's that you had left after killing the Decimator. And a 60 point Falcon/Dash autowins against 5 12 point ships.

So swarms would be coinflips against fat turret lists and would autolose against Phantom squads, especially double Phantom squads.

No.

The effects on the meta that TLT has is nothing like what the effects of the Phantom had.

How can you say this when the Phantom never won Worlds including pre-nerf era. TLTs won Worlds right away. Even after the nerf to the Phantom, fat PWTs still was dominating and didn't stop them from being the popular choice until the MOV change.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

uh, TLTs did not win worlds

you can't think that that little 24 point Y-wing somehow pulled more weight than V.I regen Poe and r3-a2

You know according to Paul Heaver, the TLT stress hog should be in ever Rebel list. I get how good regen/Poe is but he also stated it was added to combat TLTs. The foundation of his list was TLT.

uh, TLTs did not win worlds

Yeah I'm not sure why people don't get that, but the TLT was only there because it works well on a Stresshog.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

No they haven't. Phantoms are the main reason why the Fat PWT dominated. They drove the swarm out of the meta, which was the main thing that kept the Fat PWT in check. Fat Han's w/VI however are a hard counter for ACD Phantoms, which made them the goto ship for lists.

TLT's on the other hand have put some limits on Fat low agility ships but the MoV change also had a big impact on them.

Nerfing the Phantom didn't stop fat PWTs from dominating. The swarms didn't come back and end their reign, the MOV change was the major factor in this.

No.

The effects on the meta that TLT has is nothing like what the effects of the Phantom had.

How can you say this when the Phantom never won Worlds including pre-nerf era. TLTs won Worlds right away. Even after the nerf to the Phantom, fat PWTs still was dominating and didn't stop them from being the popular choice until the MOV change.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

uh, TLTs did not win worlds

you can't think that that little 24 point Y-wing somehow pulled more weight than V.I regen Poe and r3-a2

You know according to Paul Heaver, the TLT stress hog should be in ever Rebel list. I get how good regen/Poe is but he also stated it was added to combat TLTs. The foundation of his list was TLT.

no, the foundation of the TLT stress hog is r3-a2; TLT just extends its threat to range 3 where the firing arc is widest. If dorsal turrets had been range 2-3 as well, we'd be seeing those replace TLT on hogs in a heartbeat.

I didn't hear paul mentioning that the TLT gold is auto-include in every rebel squad, oui?

not to mention Poe does combat TLTs, but the V.I is pretty superfluous if he didn't also have the likes of soontir in mind

So I guess general consensus is TLT isn't necessarily competitively overpowered like the Phantom, just more effective than other options, so doesn't necessarily require a nerf more so than the other generic filler ships need a buff?

Here's the thing, TLT's are good but not great. Mass TLT's (3 and 4 ship variants) have won some GSC's. Far more often a mass TLT list will either not make the cut or make the cut but then fizzle out before the finals.

TLT's have weaknesses that can be exploited. In my own personal opinion much of the concern over TLT swarms comes out of local meta's that aren't developed as much as others. In some of those arenas where not enough people have figured out how to beat them it gives a false impression that they are overpowered.

Again, that's not to say TLT's aren't good. They are good. And for 6 points a pop they should be. It's a far cry from the Phantom issue that was developing and would have gotten worse. The nice thing about the Phantom errata was that it left the ship in a good place. Still extremely powerful but with a little more vulnerability. And many people would also tell you that the Phantom rule change also helped out the low pilot skill versions of that ship as well.

TLT isn't going to get out of hand. If anything Worlds and the GSC's have simply confirmed they are not overpowered.

I endorse this post in its entirety. I've come around to the idea that TLT is a point too cheap, but that's probably not enough for FFG to take the unusual step of errata.

Funny i remember quite a lot of backlash on this forum when i suggested TLT should have been the same cost as HLC (7pts) shortly after it was released. Looks like i've just been too early with this opinion. Anyway, it's not game breaking and they probably already have some stuff in the works that will weaken TLT indirectly (as TLT did to PWTs).

If TLT were to receive errata I would guess that it would cost one point more.

He talks about his list choice and why on the Scum and Villany Podcast.

Hoe hard would it be for all of us to band together and start begging FFG to get MajorJuggler onto the design team?

New petition? New petition.

I'm pretty sure he already mentioned FFG arent willing to pay a competetive salary for that kind of expertise. Which i think is kind of curious considering Xwing is such a massive success.

Anonymous online reports peg developers at FFG in the low to mid $30,000s. A Ph.D. can reasonably expect to be employed at somewhere between half again and four times as much, depending on the field and whether you want to work for a university or private industry.

I'm not interested in taking Alex or Frank's job, but I have actually exchanged emails with Alex about doing some work for them as a Technical Balance Consultant. Unfortunately we got hung up on the IP ownership issue -- FFG legal wants to exclusively and permanently own everything I ever did and said related to X-wing, potentially even retroactively for public statements. I did not find these terms acceptable. The equivalent terms if presented to an artist would be to prevent them from using any method of using a paint brush or digital tools ever again - it's simply not going to happen. Likewise I am not going to agree to terms where FFG would be in a position to legally prevent me from using math later for commercial or non-commercial use. This is all on FFG legal and/or upper level management, as Alex directly lobbied my case but met with resistance.

So there's that.

As far as my marketable rate, I'm a little older and more professionally established than the typical FFG employee, so FFG's Jedi mind tricks of "you will accept a lower pay because you get to work at this cool company" are far less enticing to me. I'm an Electrical Engineer with a PhD, 10 years of experience, living on the East Coast, and an undisclosed salary. As an incidental baseline, my wife's colleague's husband just graduated with a PhD in Computer Science, has 0 years of work experience, and took a $120k/year job + 40k signing bonus in Cambridge. A PhD in a STEM field on the east coast probably commands about twice what Frank and Alex are making, combined. So there's the x4 range that Vorpal tossed out.

I also have an obligation to work at my current company through the end of the year, so I couldn't do anything full-time until 2017, although in theory I could do consulting on nights and weekends until then. My wife is a full-time doctoral student in her own studies right now, so moving is also not an option. Even if they could bring me on as a full-time telecommuting Technical Balance Director in 2017, I doubt FFG would be willing to roughly triple their developer salary for a single game.

Not to crap on Dr. Juggler's resume or anything, I think another issue with FFG paying to bring his work in house is that he may not have a professional track record to point to and say "See what I did for these other companies? I can do the same for you".

That is fair, my dissertation and resume is not focused on X-wing, although I may end up publishing some of the v3.0 fundamentals in the academic literature eventually. On the flip side, I have been on-record predicting X-wing game balance for a while now, so there's at least some tangible value there. Alex was already clear that a consulting gig wouldn't pay much anyway, although he wasn't specific. If I was credited then it would make it easier to get publisher support later if I do my own projects in the future -- although how much value that is worth is itself debatable.

Back on-topic, the main takeaway is that getting balance "just right" is difficult even if you have the right tools, and it is nearly impossible without them. If I were FFG I would wait for wave 8 and Imperial Veterans to release and settle into the meta to see how it impacts TLT. I would specifically wait and see if missiles / torpedoes do anything to curb TLT, specifically the addition of both Guidance Chips and Long Range Scanners. Related, I may or may not have finally gotten around to analyzing Missiles and Torpedoes top to bottom pre-buff, +GC, and +LRS....

Nerfing the Phantom didn't stop fat PWTs from dominating.

Of course it didn't. Changing how Phantoms worked didn't make Fat Han less of a hard counter to them.

The swarms didn't come back and end their reign, the MOV change was the major factor in this.

That's because a Phantom even after the nerf can still destroy a swarm.

And again the TLT was not the foundation of his squad, if anything you could say the stresshog is, but that's not a single upgrade.

If I were FFG I would wait for wave 8 and Imperial Veterans to release and settle into the meta to see how it impacts TLT.

I agree, it's far too early to really talk about nerfs to TLT.

For the record the Phantom was released on June 26, 2014 and not changed until March of 2015, a good 9 months latter. The TLT has only been out for 6 months, the Phantom also had 2 waves released between it and the nerf.

So even if FFG does do something it won't be for a while yet. Not until they've had time to see if things they've put into the game have the desired effect.

Juggler highlighted it, but while TLTs are one factor pushing out vanilla generics, I think things like Crack Shot are just as guilty and don't get nearly enough press. The cheapest Crackshot carrier is only 15 points and PS4. Thanks to Crackshot, 4-5 PS4 TIE Fighters stand a very good shot at completely destroying a PS2 B-Wing or several TIEs before they even get a chance to shoot. Paired with cards like Predator that are specifically designed to hunt low-PS ships, and it's just too dangerous to consider any low-PS pilots unless they bring something really good to the table.

I think Crack squad Ties are the Imperial equivalent to TLT. I usually have 2 in an imperial build with varying degrees of success

I've come around to the idea that TLT is a point too cheap, but that's probably not enough for FFG to take the unusual step of errata.

Yes. This. And, actually, I'm not even sure if it being a point too cheap is _that_ big a problem- we tend to see it used on ships which are about a point overcosted*.

I wouldn't be opposed to an errata per se, but! it would

a) need to be a nerf of no more than 1 point

b) need to effect only the TLT- ion turrets are barely viable as it is

c) I can't stress this enough: it can't have the effect of nerfing turrets generally.

As it stands, I think the TLT is basically fine, but probably a touch more powerful than it should be given the cost. It certainly has some interesting weaknesses, and that creates good games.

*I just had a sudden mental image of an errata which let Heavy Scyks mount turrets. That might almost be balanced!

Not to crap on Dr. Juggler's resume or anything, I think another issue with FFG paying to bring his work in house is that he may not have a professional track record to point to and say "See what I did for these other companies? I can do the same for you".

That is fair, my dissertation and resume is not focused on X-wing, although I may end up publishing some of the v3.0 fundamentals in the academic literature eventually. On the flip side, I have been on-record predicting X-wing game balance for a while now, so there's at least some tangible value there. Alex was already clear that a consulting gig wouldn't pay much anyway, although he wasn't specific. If I was credited then it would make it easier to get publisher support later if I do my own projects in the future -- although how much value that is worth is itself debatable.

My comment was meant more towards being able to walk into FFG Execs and slapping down something that shows that "better math = more money" than it was a critique of the quality of results you've generated in the past. As I've mentioned before, a perfectly balanced game may actually be a less profitable game for FFG.

No.

The effects on the meta that TLT has is nothing like what the effects of the Phantom had.

How can you say this when the Phantom never won Worlds including pre-nerf era. TLTs won Worlds right away. Even after the nerf to the Phantom, fat PWTs still was dominating and didn't stop them from being the popular choice until the MOV change.

The Phantom was the rock to the swarms scissor to the PWT paper. TLTs have already made a bigger splash then the Phantom ever had.

TLT didn't win worlds. R3-A2 won worlds. Nathen beat a triple K wing list with corran, Poe, and an......... PS1 A wing.

So it seems there are two main sides to the TLT argument.

Some think they are necessary to combat pwts, aces, high agility ships, etc.

Others think they are just too powerful for the cost against lesser ships.

I think both issues are valid, but I think the real issue is something MJ brought up. Which is the current state of aces in the game.

I see nothing wrong with using high ps ships to gain an advantage, including using boost and barrel roll to better your position.

The problem is how hard to kill they have become. Between some combination of high agility, token stacking, auto thrusters, and regen. They can often take on multiple ships easily. What's worse is many of these aces are quite affordable, unlike a 60 point fat han for examole. Hence the rise of triple ace lists.

I'm not sure what the answer is. I think a regen nerf would be the best first step personally.

I look at it this way. Before the Nerf the Phantom was not fun to play against and you always felt no matter how well you fly you have no chance unless you took high PS or turreted ships.

The TLT give players the same feeling, Playing against a 4 TLT ship list or even 3 is just not fun! Yes it can be beat, but only if you build an element in your list to deal with it. See how good 4BZ is versus a TLT list and you will understand.

3 Issues with TLT

--TLT comes down to staying at range 3, which normally applies a bonus to the defender, but in this case it doesn't.

--TLT can be fired with Stress bot and cause 2 stress a turn. Although a good strategy, it really makes the game not that fun to play

--TLT is undercosted for what it does. It costs 1 point less than a Heavy Laser, it does the Average amount of damage a heavy laser does, and strips more tokens, and is 360. All of this for one point less. Lets face it TLT should have been 8-9 points for all the extra bonuses.

So to fix it just like Tactician, nerf it. _{TLT's do not count as secondary weapons.}

What does this do.

--Now it's less effective than a Heavy Laser, because ships get the +1 defense dice bonus (We all know that defense dice suck, however an extra one goes a long way to mediate this weapon)

--It makes the TLT user have to fly better, trying to stay in range 2 for maximum potential.

--Keeps it effective vs 1 or less agility which is why people say it was added to the game, but gives 2 agility or higher ships a chance to not be automatically wiped off the board in a single turn. Due to multiple TLT fire

This simple fix keeps everything the same, and like the Tactician card, makes it less effective without screwing with any other game mechanics.

Make it so FFG, you know you want to:

Not to crap on Dr. Juggler's resume or anything, I think another issue with FFG paying to bring his work in house is that he may not have a professional track record to point to and say "See what I did for these other companies? I can do the same for you".

That is fair, my dissertation and resume is not focused on X-wing, although I may end up publishing some of the v3.0 fundamentals in the academic literature eventually. On the flip side, I have been on-record predicting X-wing game balance for a while now, so there's at least some tangible value there. Alex was already clear that a consulting gig wouldn't pay much anyway, although he wasn't specific. If I was credited then it would make it easier to get publisher support later if I do my own projects in the future -- although how much value that is worth is itself debatable.

My comment was meant more towards being able to walk into FFG Execs and slapping down something that shows that "better math = more money" than it was a critique of the quality of results you've generated in the past. As I've mentioned before, a perfectly balanced game may actually be a less profitable game for FFG.

I find the discussion of profitability as a function of game balance to be extremely interesting. In the short term, power creep helps to sell more expansions (look! Shiny Defenders!), but in the long term it tends to drive people away from the game.

A large part of X-wing's draw, from what I gather, is that it is much better balanced than the other mini games out there. (X-wing is the only minis game that I have played, and I haven't really looked into any other games in detail.) X-wing game balance has certainly helped convert more than a few 40k players. I principle I think FFG and in particular Alex are aware of this, as they are always striving to achieve balance that is, in Alex's words, "just right". How much is it actually worth to them though? Good question -- and I suspect the answer depends on whether or not X-wing is still "top dog" in minis balance. When the day eventually comes that some other minis game with mass market appeal comes along with better balance and starts stealing FFG's lunch money, then at that point FFG would probably value game balance more than they do now. But I suspect we are still quite a ways away from that.

I think a regen nerf would be the best first step personally.

Regen is actually pretty expensive and not always effective. R2-D2 is 4 points and makes you quite predictable.

R5-P9 requires that you not spend a focus for either offense or defense, effectively making your only action that turn to regen.

Gonk is really just as bad as R5-P9.

What some people are seeming to miss is that no one single upgrade is broken or really that powerful, it's the combo that can become better than the sum of its parts that can be a problem.

The Phantom for example would of been nowhere nearly as big of a deal without both ACD and VI. Take away either one of those and the Phantom is good but far from OP'ed. Likewise TLT is potent for sure, but it was TLT, R3-A2 and BTL-4A that makes a Stresshog.

If I were FFG I would wait for wave 8 and Imperial Veterans to release and settle into the meta to see how it impacts TLT.

I agree, it's far too early to really talk about nerfs to TLT.

For the record the Phantom was released on June 26, 2014 and not changed until March of 2015, a good 9 months latter. The TLT has only been out for 6 months, the Phantom also had 2 waves released between it and the nerf.

So even if FFG does do something it won't be for a while yet. Not until they've had time to see if things they've put into the game have the desired effect.

The Defender titles are likely to make a huge splash in the meta. Three Onyx Defenders with the TIE/D title and Tractor Beams will tear through a 4xTLT Squad. They'll likely have one Y-Wing dead before it shoots and have the others sitting on Asteroids, pushed out of range, or pulled into range 1 forcing the TLTs to split their fire.

Playing against a 4 TLT ship list or even 3 is just not fun!

Fun is far too subjective to be used to balance a game.

That said, it wouldn't bother me to see the TLT give the defender an extra evade die at range 3.

TLTs don't need a nerf.

Sure they're effective, but not ridiculously overpowered. You just have to know how to deal with them.

The Defender titles are likely to make a huge splash in the meta.

I wasn't really considering the Imp Vet's pack, but with those titles and the tractor beam... I'm thinking seriously about getting it now, I also hadn't gotten any S&V since wave 6, but I'm seriously thinking about a Mist Hunter now.

One thing I'm hoping to see is that Guidance Chips actually makes ord worthwhile, I'd love to finally see a reason to use a couple of the 750 copies of Proton Torpedos I have...

Plus as you point out, those things may have a big impact on the meta.

I think we really do need to let wave 8 and imperial veterans hit the scene before coming back to analyzing TLT further. Alpha striking generics with big ordnance might be very competitive to the generic TLTs. Tractor beams can also really wreak havoc on the Y-wing TLTs. Their low agility is going to make them susceptible to being pulled into the range 1 donut or on to asteroids.

Honestly, I worry more about Tractor beams potentially harming the game more than what TLT did. Being able to move your opponent's ships is a completely new mechanic and it may turn people off. As an example, add a 21-pt Laetin A'shera to tractor around key TLT targets. Laetin is hard to hit with TLTs, and comes cheaper.

How is math wing 3.0 this big almighty thing that would completely bring balance to the game? You've already much gotten your answer that ffg isn't going to hire you so why talk and tease about your findings and spreadsheets if they're too powerful to be public information?