To the OP:
I have no idea what FFG will do, your guess is as good as mine. In general, they tend to react slowly to avoid swinging too far in the other direction. Paraphrasing Alex, when FFG designs ships and upgrade cards they really don't know how it will affect the meta until they are released into the wild and they start getting actual tournament results. So, given that, intentionally being very slow to make changes via errata is a reasonable approach.
That said, they have acknowledged in the Punishing One preview that "you can find Twin Laser Turrets nearly everywhere you look for just six squad points". I'm not going to read too much into that except that they are aware of the problem.
No.
The effects on the meta that TLT has is nothing like what the effects of the Phantom had.
You are correct in that the effects are different:
- The Phantom pushed the average Pilot Skill up to 9+, as this was the only way to counter Whisper's cost effectiveness and positional ability. The only cost effective PS9+ option at the time was Han Solo, so naturally that flooded the meta.
- TLTs have rendered all vanilla generic ships obsolete. There is still the roughly 50-50 split of generic vs named pilots, but virtually all of the generic pilots are now carrying TLT, Crackshot, or Palpatine, which are all wave ~7 upgrades. Generics are now in net less cost effective than TLT Y-wings, so naturally the meta has been flooded by Y-wings and TLT.
I'm not sure which effect is actually worse, but they are both significant. If you want to quantify the direct effect on the meta, slightly more points were spent on Y-wings in Worlds 2015 Top 32 than were spent on Fat Falcons (the Phantom counter) in Worlds 2014 Top 32. Therefore it is reasonable to conclude that the TLT has had at least as much of an impact on the meta as pre-nerf Whisper had.
So I guess general consensus is TLT isn't necessarily competitively overpowered like the Phantom, just more effective than other options, so doesn't necessarily require a nerf more so than the other generic filler ships need a buff?
Whisper power creep and TLT power creep are very similar in many ways. We have been talking for years about how the generic X-wing is no longer competitive, but we are now at the point where every single vanilla generic ship in the game is no longer competitive, including the previous benchmark TIE Fighters and Z-95s which are no longer useful for anything other 12 points of leftover filler. People point to the lack of mass TLT squads dominating tournaments as evidence that TLT is not overpowered, but that's not the point. (Although notably there were 3-6 such squads in Worlds 2015 Top 32 depending on your criteria, so it is clearly not a low-skill phenomenon.)
Looking at only pure TLT squads is a poor comparison, because there are no other generic ships in the game that taken exclusively in a 100 point squad would make for a consistently competitive list, with the exception of the 8-TIE Swarm, and possibly the 8 Z-95 swarm. The fact that quad TLT still is still placing highly in current tournaments now, is direct evidence that TLT is enabling Y-wings to do something that no other generic ship in the history of the game has been able to consistently do.
Power creep is defined as when a new unit or upgrade renders a previously competitive unit or upgrade non-competitive. TLT at 6 points has rendered vanilla (0 upgrades) generics obsolete. Therefore TLT at 6 points is power creep. FFG is left with a few options:
- Head in the sand: do nothing.
- Capitulate: Change the TLT by errata, either mechanically or by point cost.
- Try something new: add a new mechanic / ship / upgrade / or something else that naturally preys on TLT.
- Fight fire with fire: don't change TLT, but instead do something to try make generic ships without any current upgrades better. In other worlds, fight TLT power creep with generic ship power creep.
In executing anything other than #1, FFG needs to be careful that the cure is not worse than the poison, and in principle Alex seems very aware of this. In practice, if they continue to have difficulty predicting the effectiveness of new ships and upgrades during the design phase, then they will inevitably end up accidentally releasing something new that pushes the previous boundaries of the power curve as Whisper and TLT have. I was hopeful that X-wing would largely avoid power creep, but I have accepted that the game will inevitably progress in a cycle of never-ending gradual power creep. It will likely be the reason that I eventually stop playing.