Has Anyone Done The Analysis of Post Chimps Games?

By Jisforjets, in X-Wing

I think the aces ordinance is where we are headed. It's real predator, fat Han, is going to be ran out on Z swarm fears.

I don't believe a lot of people have experienced dead ace or stressbot or IG in one exchange, least of all in a tourney. It's still my conviction that there are many naysayers that can't imagine what an alpha strike does.

In Wave 5, I spent a while running three TIE Bombers and an Interceptor. I've blown up YTs in a single round of firing, and with Guidance Chips a list like that just got a lot nastier. I've played with and against the Blount swarm. So I'm not underestimating the alpha strike.

But (e.g.) the Blount swarm is a pistol with a single round. Say you're up against a list with Whisper, Omega Leader, and Omicron + Palpatine. Which target do you take out with your alpha strike? I'm confident that Whisper can solo five or six low-PS Headhunters even if you wipe the shuttle off the table, even without Omega Leader's assistance. So maybe you shoot at Whisper instead? But it's pretty hard to get a reliable arc against her, and she's capable from closing from beyond Range 3 to Range 1 in a single round, so that might not work either. And whatever you shoot, the rest of the list is willing and able to eliminate your Headhunters at a pretty rapid clip.

So let's assume a friendlier matchup, then: maybe Super Dash and Miranda + Threepio. But again, who do you target? They're almost certainly going to kill a Z-95 before it shoots if they want to (including Blount, if he takes anything other than VI). So then the remaining 4 Bandits kill Dash off, and then... Miranda has an uphill road, for sure, but she can use SLAM to carefully pick her battles, and she'll kill a Headhunter every other round she fires.

Or maybe Dash and Miranda both rush your Headhunter formation instead of proceeding into a stately merge, leaving some ships without range or without arc for firing their missiles. With boost and SLAM, they can definitely do it, throwing your jousting plan into disarray and forcing you to K-turn while they break off.

It will be a strong list, no doubt about it. But I think it's going to work like so many other spam lists, including the current 4x TLTs: when it beats someone it does it thoroughly and quickly, but even in a favorable matchup there's a lot opponents can do to exploit its weaknesses.

What I still haven't figured out is wether I want Chips or LRSs on my Homing Missile/Seismic Charge Bombers.

What speaks for LRS:

  • Very reliabe at getting the TL, I am pretty much guaranteed to fire ze missiles on the first turn
  • Excellent dice modification with TL+Focus

The downsides:

  • Incredibly obvious as to what you want to target, which might lead to unfortunate disengagements
  • May lead to trouble when reaquiring target locks with the restriction

Chips will allow me to:

  • Shoot better when I don't get the focus
  • Get target locks like I am used to

They do have the downsides of:

  • Me having to get target locks like I used to, which is a headache on the initial engagement

I haven't done any testing at all concerning this, so some insights would be appreciated. My gut feeling is LRS, but Chips are so shiny...

I think the aces ordinance is where we are headed. It's real predator, fat Han, is going to be ran out on Z swarm fears.

I don't believe a lot of people have experienced dead ace or stressbot or IG in one exchange, least of all in a tourney. It's still my conviction that there are many naysayers that can't imagine what an alpha strike does.

I think the aces ordinance is where we are headed. It's real predator, fat Han, is going to be ran out on Z swarm fears.

I don't believe a lot of people have experienced dead ace or stressbot or IG in one exchange, least of all in a tourney. It's still my conviction that there are many naysayers that can't imagine what an alpha strike does.

What Vorpal said. And pretty much every ace that can reliably carry ordnance wants to use their mod slot for something other than Chimps - Engine Upgrade, Autothrusters or even Integrated Astromech. In almost every case you're giving up significant utility in exchange for the one-shot alpha strike.

In a lot of case the mod slot is a hrdge not a win condition. Consistent ordinance is a win condition of it's own. Engine on vader is great... But... That's 4 points so you can occasionally arc dodge. If chips buy a PS bid and chimps on a crack homer Vader, that's potentially a win condition against many squads. Everything is a matchup and squad build question, but we have to use some reason here and acknowledge that destroying ships is how you win.

I think the aces ordinance is where we are headed. It's real predator, fat Han, is going to be ran out on Z swarm fears.

I don't believe a lot of people have experienced dead ace or stressbot or IG in one exchange, least of all in a tourney. It's still my conviction that there are many naysayers that can't imagine what an alpha strike does.

What Vorpal said. And pretty much every ace that can reliably carry ordnance wants to use their mod slot for something other than Chimps - Engine Upgrade, Autothrusters or even Integrated Astromech. In almost every case you're giving up significant utility in exchange for the one-shot alpha strike.

In a lot of case the mod slot is a hrdge not a win condition. Consistent ordinance is a win condition of it's own. Engine on vader is great... But... That's 4 points so you can occasionally arc dodge. If chips buy a PS bid and chimps on a crack homer Vader, that's potentially a win condition against many squads. Everything is a matchup and squad build question, but we have to use some reason here and acknowledge that destroying ships is how you win.

For the same reason, I could see torpedoes of some kind and GCs on Wedge, even over IA. That kind of shot just erases or cripples ships. Give him VI or Crack Shot and go to town.

But (e.g.) the Blount swarm is a pistol with a single round. Say you're up against a list with Whisper, Omega Leader, and Omicron + Palpatine. Which target do you take out with your alpha strike? I'm confident that Whisper can solo five or six low-PS Headhunters even if you wipe the shuttle off the table, even without Omega Leader's assistance. So maybe you shoot at Whisper instead? But it's pretty hard to get a reliable arc against her, and she's capable from closing from beyond Range 3 to Range 1 in a single round, so that might not work either. And whatever you shoot, the rest of the list is willing and able to eliminate your Headhunters at a pretty rapid clip.

Whisper is the most survivable of the Aces in this scenario, as she maintains her 4 agility after getting hit the first time.

Also, while she's got 4 agility, the Z-95s have a very very small chance of being able to take her out without missiles.

She's a Swarm-counter, through and through.

However, I'd still love to see how you're building her for the actual damage numbers, just to see how many missiles it should take for a 50/50 shot of killing her.

I'll add to what Vorpal's saying - there's a lot of potential for some scary one round drops but in all the excitement over damage potential there's still an uphill battle to A) get targets in arc and B) get the appropriate lock/focus/range to launch your ordnance. It's definitely a skill that can be acquired and now has more payoff than it did before but Aces are still just as good at arc dodging and boosting into unfavorable locations. I like the opportunity to make ordnance more effective but I hardly think it's going to be as big of a factor as TLTs, which as a friendly reminder to all, are 360 - range 2-3 doubleshots. I mean, if you want to think of it that way, concussion missiles on a chimped z-95 in worst case scenario are just two hits. Just two. Not saying the average doesn't skew higher but there's plenty of aces out there who just do not care about 2 hits. And how often do you really manage to get Soontir Fel into arc with a whole gaggle of Z-95s?

I'll argue that this is the best kind of upgrade - one that gives more cost-effective tools to address problems but doesn't eliminate the advantages of more expensive tools (ie balance).

It will be a strong list, no doubt about it. But I think it's going to work like so many other spam lists, including the current 4x TLTs: when it beats someone it does it thoroughly and quickly, but even in a favorable matchup there's a lot opponents can do to exploit its weaknesses.

That's why I think you could see something like 2 Z-95's with Homing Missiles and GC in a list that is there to help take out the aces (or an ace and a Z). It doesn't suffer from the min-maxing of other lists, but still supports a strong alpha strike for one ship. Pick an enemy ship and it will suffer that round. It can hit a Stealth Soontir.....or just a TLT Y-wing. It also causes target priority confusion as your aces are dangerous, but so are the ordnance ships (for a time).

Part of this comes down to what you said: "But (e.g.) the Blount swarm is a pistol with a single round."

If you go with just a couple of pistols, then it becomes more versatile. With 2 Homing Missiles and GC, you should be able to take out Soontir Fel, but your whole list doesn't fall to the same weaknesses. You do lose the Blount angle, unless one of your Z's is Blount (which is viable).

What I still haven't figured out is wether I want Chips or LRSs on my Homing Missile/Seismic Charge Bombers.

What speaks for LRS:

  • Very reliabe at getting the TL, I am pretty much guaranteed to fire ze missiles on the first turn
  • Excellent dice modification with TL+Focus

The downsides:

  • Incredibly obvious as to what you want to target, which might lead to unfortunate disengagements
  • May lead to trouble when reaquiring target locks with the restriction

Chips will allow me to:

  • Shoot better when I don't get the focus
  • Get target locks like I am used to

They do have the downsides of:

  • Me having to get target locks like I used to, which is a headache on the initial engagement

I haven't done any testing at all concerning this, so some insights would be appreciated. My gut feeling is LRS, but Chips are so shiny...

I think getting that first TL is difficult, especially if your opponent has played vs. Tie Bombers before. I think LRS is going to be better. You get those shots in the first turn, hopefully before you lost a Bomber.

Worried about having someone peel off? You don't really want all your Bombers going after the same target, anyways. So, don't be a fool and put them all on Soontir to have him jump. Put 2 on one target and 2 on another. You probably can't use more than 2 missiles on one target, unless it's a big one. I think if one of your prime targets buggers off for a turn, then that's totally fine. You can fire at the rest of his list.

I'm not worried about getting your TL after using it up. I think the 5 K-turn works. Either that or going for a bump and bomb.

I also think that deployment is an important step. When you have an arc dodging ace and the rest of their list, I like to put asteroids in the middle of the map and then deploy in the middle. Your opponent will usually put the arc dodger on one side and the rest of the ships in the other. I have found it best to gun for the arc dodger fast before your opponent can bring the rest of his list to bear. This way you have all your Bombers working on one arc dodger that probably isnt' expecting it. Tier your Bombers so that at least 2 should get a shot and you are golden.

I'm looking forward to Long Range Scanners.

Edited by heychadwick

I was considering just a Thread Tracers and Guidance Chips on a Z95 banditit. For a single points your adding in a 3dice shot with a guarantee of a Hit, and the average of 2+ hits. And if it gets through everyone close to you gains a Mark Target on the ship. That is enough utility for a single point to make me consider it.

I'm sure everyone has considered Nera Dantels, with Deadeye, Proton torps, Extra Munitions, Fire Control and Chimps. That is a lot of damage from a 35 point ship.

Oh, side note: Scum Firespray w/ Homing Missile, GC, and 4-LOM crew can shoot at Stealth Soontir with no dice modifier.

Imperial Kath can use GC combined with Flechette Torps to give 2 stress in a round. You can go with Slave 1, ME, and Proton Torpedoes to through 4 dice and at least one of them turning into a crit (possibly 2). Kath with GC likes the free crit due to GC.

I think the aces ordinance is where we are headed. It's real predator, fat Han, is going to be ran out on Z swarm fears.

I don't believe a lot of people have experienced dead ace or stressbot or IG in one exchange, least of all in a tourney. It's still my conviction that there are many naysayers that can't imagine what an alpha strike does.

What Vorpal said. And pretty much every ace that can reliably carry ordnance wants to use their mod slot for something other than Chimps - Engine Upgrade, Autothrusters or even Integrated Astromech. In almost every case you're giving up significant utility in exchange for the one-shot alpha strike.

In a lot of case the mod slot is a hrdge not a win condition. Consistent ordinance is a win condition of it's own. Engine on vader is great... But... That's 4 points so you can occasionally arc dodge. If chips buy a PS bid and chimps on a crack homer Vader, that's potentially a win condition against many squads. Everything is a matchup and squad build question, but we have to use some reason here and acknowledge that destroying ships is how you win.

For the same reason, I could see torpedoes of some kind and GCs on Wedge, even over IA. That kind of shot just erases or cripples ships. Give him VI or Crack Shot and go to town.

Wedge with crack and chimps is/will be an animal. Killing is better defense. Plus theres also those extra 5 ablative biggs.. uh I mean wounds.

the results are in: im going to marry Nera Dantels!

You really think you can compete with Biggs? Have you seen that moustache?

the results are in: im going to marry Nera Dantels!

You really think you can compete with Biggs? Have you seen that moustache?

ive got one thing he doesnt: a pulse

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

i just sent this squad to my flying buddy today and he told me it would be crap against high agility ships.

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

i just sent this squad to my flying buddy today and he told me it would be crap against high agility ships.

So run one of your own. Two of those Tempests, Wampa and Soontir is 99 points...

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

Is it better than 4x Tempest A.C. Chimps Cluster?

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

i just sent this squad to my flying buddy today and he told me it would be crap against high agility ships.

That concern is pretty handily solved by the 4 hits averaged by those missiles. Additionally the grind of 2 hits from each ship each turn wears people down eventually, greens only last so long.

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

Is it better than 4x Tempest A.C. Chimps Cluster?

Unclear but it does give the power of 4 hits to punch through high agility. They could fuse into 2 cluster 2 homing missile for a pretty nice variety in offering.

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

Is it better than 4x Tempest A.C. Chimps Cluster?

Unclear but it does give the power of 4 hits to punch through high agility. They could fuse into 2 cluster 2 homing missile for a pretty nice variety in offering.

AC with Cluster offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the ability to go to as much as 6, but you face double the damage mitigation.

AC with Concussion offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the possibility of going lower.

Cluster is definitely better vs a Decimator.

Concussion is definitely better vs a Phantom.

Playing tonight with 4x tempest a.c. chimps conc missiles and it feels pretty gross. Most of your damage is basically dice independent and before/after shooting missiles you just evade always and are pretty tanky. Seems fun and pretty strong.

Is it better than 4x Tempest A.C. Chimps Cluster?

Unclear but it does give the power of 4 hits to punch through high agility. They could fuse into 2 cluster 2 homing missile for a pretty nice variety in offering.

AC with Cluster offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the ability to go to as much as 6, but you face double the damage mitigation.

AC with Concussion offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the possibility of going lower.

Cluster is definitely better vs a Decimator.

Concussion is definitely better vs a Phantom.

But now I'm wondering: With Guidance Chips, are AC still better than FCS with Clusters?

AC with Cluster offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the ability to go to as much as 6, but you face double the damage mitigation.

AC with Concussion offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the possibility of going lower.

Cluster is definitely better vs a Decimator.

Concussion is definitely better vs a Phantom.

But now I'm wondering: With Guidance Chips, are AC still better than FCS with Clusters?

Using IronWardog's X-wing Probability Calculator (cause I suck at the math myself):
3 w/ Guidance Chips, Accuracy Corrector, Cluster Missiles vs 0 = 4.67
3+TL w/ Guidance Chips, Cluster Missiles vs 0 = 4.75
Looks like the answer is yes, but then the next question arises: is it so much better that it's worth giving up AC for your primary weapon attacks? IMO, probably not.
Edited by DR4CO

AC with Cluster offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the ability to go to as much as 6, but you face double the damage mitigation.

AC with Concussion offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the possibility of going lower.

Cluster is definitely better vs a Decimator.

Concussion is definitely better vs a Phantom.

But now I'm wondering: With Guidance Chips, are AC still better than FCS with Clusters?

Using IronWardog's X-wing Probability Calculator (cause I suck at the math myself...):
3 w/ Guidance Chips, Accuracy Corrector, Cluster Missiles vs 0 = 4.67
3+TL w/ Guidance Chips, Cluster Missiles vs 0 = 4.75
Looks like the answer is yes, but then the next question arises: is it so much better that it's worth giving up AC for your primary weapon attacks? IMO, probably not.

Yeah, probably not, though I wonder if the probability calculator keeps in mind that the first Cluster Missile attack is unmodified save for the chips.

The more fascinating discovery for me is that Chips + Clusters = only a 1/8 chance of producing less than 2 damage per attack, with no further die modifications.

That's salient value, that I'll be examining next to Concussions for a bit.

(Concs clearly win if you have a Focus Token as well).

AC with Cluster offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the ability to go to as much as 6, but you face double the damage mitigation.

AC with Concussion offers an expectation of 4 damage, with the possibility of going lower.

Cluster is definitely better vs a Decimator.

Concussion is definitely better vs a Phantom.

But now I'm wondering: With Guidance Chips, are AC still better than FCS with Clusters?

Using IronWardog's X-wing Probability Calculator (cause I suck at the math myself...):
3 w/ Guidance Chips, Accuracy Corrector, Cluster Missiles vs 0 = 4.67
3+TL w/ Guidance Chips, Cluster Missiles vs 0 = 4.75
Looks like the answer is yes, but then the next question arises: is it so much better that it's worth giving up AC for your primary weapon attacks? IMO, probably not.

Yeah, probably not, though I wonder if the probability calculator keeps in mind that the first Cluster Missile attack is unmodified save for the chips.

Good point, and I don't think it does. I imagine that would push the expected roll back down a little bit, which would probably put the nail in the coffin. AC all the way, I guess.

Clusters + Guidance Chips:

2 attacks, each in lots of 8:

4 lots go to 3 damage

3 lots go to 2 damage

1 lot goes to 1 damage

Punnet Squared, each in lots of 64

16 lots go to 6 damage

24 lots go to 5

17 lots go to 4

06 lots go to 3

1 lot goes to 2

Of course, the latter is massively impacted by damage mitigation.

Concussion + Chips

1 attack, in lots of 256

152 lots go to 4 damage

80 go to 3

23 go to 2

1 goes to 1