As someone who started playing after the release of the Awakens Core set, Wave 8 will be the first time I experience new ships coming into the meta. I wasn't really sure how disruptive releasing four new ships would be, so I've gone through the release history and mapped it to which ships were at the top tables in worlds from 2013 onwards(I couldn't find lists anywhere for 2012). After putting the stats together I put my analysis at the bottom which is probably pretty obvious to people that have been around for a while, but may help others that are new.

In any deck/squad building game, there are effectively four "tiers" of pieces(ships/pilots/upgrades): viable, not viable, borderline, and nonviable by design necessity. I'm defining viable as made an appearance at either the top 8 at worlds 2013 (I couldn't find lists for anything other than top 8), or top 32 in words 2014 and 2015. I'm not experienced enough in X-Wing to judge the borderline cases, and the nonviable by design cases are another topic entirely, so I decided to start with only viable and not viable. To keep things simple, we are only looking at worlds, so there may have been pilots that were in between waves etc. Additionally, there's a decent chance ships that are competitive that didn't make the top tables by luck as our sample size is small. Here's a breakdown of each year's pilots that made the figurative cut and some stats to go along with.

2013 Pilots in Top 8

• X-Wing
  • Rookie Pilot
  • Biggs
  • Luke
  • Wedge
• Y-Wing
  • Gold Squadron Pilot
• B-Wing
  • Blue Squadron Pilot
  • Dagger Squadron Pilot
• YT-1300
  • Han Solo
• TIE Fighter
  • Academy
  • Obsidian
  • Dark Curse
  • Backstabber
  • Howlrunner
• TIE Bomber
  • Scimitar
  • Captain Jonus

Ships that didn't make the cut in 2013: TIE Advanced, A-Wing, KSE Firespray, TIE Interceptor, HWK-290, Lambda Shuttle. That gives us 6 ships viable, 6 not viable, with 15/31 pilots viable for those ships. There are 6 non-viable ships, and thus 100% of those pilots are nonviable as well.

Viable Ships By Attack:

1(0%) - None

2(60%) - TIE Fighter, TIE Bomber, Y-Wing

3(50%) - X-Wing, B-Wing, YT-1300

Viable Ships By Agility:

1(75%) - Y-Wing, B-Wing, YT-1300

2(50%) - X-Wing, TIE Bomber

3(33%) - TIE Fighter

Viable Ships By Wave:

Core(100%) - X-Wing, TIE Fighter

1(50%) - Y-Wing

2(25%) - YT-1300

3(50%) - B-Wing, TIE Bomber

Between Worlds 2013 and 2014, Imperial Aces, the Rebel Transport, and Wave 4 were released.

2014 Pilots in Top 32

• X-Wing
  • Rookie Pilot
  • Biggs Darklighter
  • Wedge Antilles
• TIE Fighter
  • Academy Pilot
  • Obsidian Squadron Pilot
  • Black Squadron Pilot
  • Backstabber
  • Howlrunner
• Y-Wing
  • Gold Squadron Pilot
• YT-1300
  • Chewbacca
  • Han Solo
• TIE Interceptor
  • Soontir Fel
• B-Wing
  • Blue Squadron Pilot
• HWK-290
  • Roark Garnet
  • Jan Ors
• Lambda Shuttle
  • Omicron Group Pilot
• Z-95
  • Bandit Squadron Pilot
  • Tala Squadron Pilot
  • Airen Cracken
• E-Wing
  • Corran Horn
• TIE Phantom
  • Sigma Squadron Pilot
  • Echo
  • Whisper

Ships that didn't make the cut in 2014: TIE Advanced, TIE Bomber, A-Wing, KSE Firespray, and the TIE Defender. The Interceptor, Shuttle, and HWK-290 all made it to the top 32 this time, both only using upgrades that were all available in 2013. The TIE Bomber is the only ship to move from viable to nonviable, though it is worth noting that the 2013 Y-Wings were all naked, while both of the lists with Y-Wings in 2014 were stressbots, which are effectively a new ship archetype that happens to have the stats of a Y-Wing. That gives us 11 ships viable, 5 not viable, with 24/57 pilots viable for those ships. There are 5 non-viable ships, and thus 100% of those pilots are nonviable as well. I also want to note that there were 14 YT-1300s flown in 13 lists, making up nearly half of all lists in the top 32.

2015 Pilots in Top 32

• TIE Fighter
  • Academy Pilot
  • Obsidian Squadron Pilot
  • Black Squadron Pilot
  • Howlrunner
• Y-Wing
  • Gold Squadron Pilot
  • Gray Squadron Pilot
• TIE Advanced
  • Darth Vader
• A-Wing
  • Prototype Pilot
• TIE Interceptor
  • Soontir Fel
  • Carnor Jax
• B-Wing
  • Blue Squadron Pilot
  • Ten Numb
• Lambda Shuttle
  • Omicron Group Pilot
• Z-95
  • Bandit Squadron Pilot
• E-Wing
  • Corran Horn
• TIE Phantom
  • Whisper
• YT-2400
  • Dash
• VT-49 Decimator
  • Rear Admiral Chiraneau
• Y-Wing (Scum)
  • Syndicate Thug
• HWK-290 (Scum)
  • Torkil Mux
• Aggressor
  • IG-88ABC
• K-Wing
  • Warden Squadron Pilot
  • Miranda Doni
• Kihraxz
  • Cartel Marauder
• T-70 X-Wing
  • Poe Dameron

Ships that didn't make the cut in 2015: X-Wing, YT-1300, KSE Firespray, HWK-290 (Rebel), TIE Bomber, TIE Defender, Z-95(Scum), KSE Firespray (Scum), Scyk, StarViper, TIE Punisher, YV-666, and TIE/fo Fighter. The TIE Advanced and A-Wing both became viable due to the fixes released in the raider and rebel aces, though notable chardaan refit was available in 2014 and didn't see use. The only one in the Top 32 was in Nathan Eide's list, so clearly the ship and pilot pulled it's weight to the finals. The Rebel HWK-290 fell back into nonviable, replaced by a single use of the Scum Torkil. The YT-1300 fell completely off the map with the highest finish at #33 in swiss, presumably due to TLTs. Speaking of TLTs, in the top 32 lists, there were 16 rebel Y-wings, 20 scum Y-wings, and 4 K-wings. Of the 40 ships, four of them did not have TLTs: 1 autoblaster, and 3 ion cannon turrets. The lone Torkil was using an ion cannon turret. Lastly, of the 31 ships available, 17 proved viable. 27 pilots out of 90 pilots in viable ships proved viable. For the below stats I chose to simplify the YT-2400 at 4 attack, and the Aggressor at 3. Additionally, I removed turret ships from the 1 and 2 attack groups and simply placed them into a turret list, as every turret ship in the top 32 that could have a turret upgrade filled the slot.

2015 General Stats:

Viable Ships By Attack:

2(50%) - TIE Fighter, TIE Advanced, A-Wing, Z-95

3(46%) - TIE Interceptor, B-Wing, Lambda Shuttle, E-Wing, VT-49 Decimator, Aggressor, T-70 X-Wing

4(100%) - TIE Phantom, YT-2400

Turret(80%) - Y-Wing, Y-Wing (Scum), K-Wing, HWK-290(Scum)

Viable Ships By Agility:

0(100%) - VT-49 Decimator

1(75%) - Y-Wing, B-Wing, Lambda Shuttle, Z-95, Y-Wing (Scum), K-Wing,

2(45%) - TIE Phantom, YT-2400, HWK-290 (Scum), Kihraxz, T-70 X-Wing

3(60%) - TIE Fighter, TIE Advanced, A-Wing, TIE Interceptor, E-Wing, Aggressor,

Viable Ships By Wave:

Core(50%) - TIE Fighter

1(100%) - TIE Advanced, Y-Wing

2(50%) - A-Wing, TIE Interceptor

3(50%) -B-Wing, Lambda Shuttle

4(75%) - Z-95 E-Wing TIE Defender TIE Phantom

5(100%) - YT-2400, VT-49 Decimator

6(42%) - Y-Wing (Scum), HWK-290 (Scum), Aggressor

7(50%) - K-Wing, Kihraxz

Awakens Core(50%) - T-70 X-Wing

There's a couple of things I got out of these raw stats, but the biggest one is the general non-viability of ships with both high agility values and high health or shields. This includes: TIE Advanced, A-Wing, E-Wing, TIE Defender, arguably the TIE Phantom, the StarViper, Aggressor, and TIE/fo Fighter. Until they had changes made, the Advanced and A-Wing were both considered unplayable. The TIE/fo, defender, and starviper saw no usage in top 32 words. The E-Wing is officially the Corran-wing, and the TIE Phantom apparently broke the game completely until it was nerfed, though notably it's agility is not what was nerfed. It appears that FFG puts a higher value (and thus point cost) on agility with high hull + shield values than players do, presumably because aces with high agility and shields are nearly untouchable. After printing Corran Horn, who by numbers is overcosted by a significant margin, the highest PS high shield/hull and high agility pilot is Xizor at 7.

The next major point on viable ships is a quick note on the "nonviable by design necessity" category I mentioned earlier. There are some ships that are bad, that were probably never intended to be good. Instead, they cost too much for what they do, but have fun effects that would be completely game-breaking if they were more affordable. The best comparison I can think of is something like "Astral Communion" for the Hearthstone players out there. Effectively, it's and 80% chance to lose the game, but a 20% chance to win the game in a hilarious/fun way. In X-Wing, these are things like Captain Kagi, Turr Phennir, Ten Numb, Blue Ace, Maarek Stele, the new Valen Rudor, and many of the 5-7 PS unique pilot options for ships. They aren't viable, and they aren't intended to be. They're design experiments to see what sticks and just fun for players on both sides. Corran horn was probably intended to be in this category as well, just better than anticipated with R2-D2. More controversially, ordnance is in this space. Ordnance is in a situation where if it is too good, everyone is required to take it and at a high PS to prevent their opponent from firing theirs back. I'm very surprised to see players longing for ordnance to be viable, as it should produce very one sided games when it is used effectively.

Back to the title of the post, let's talk about Ten Numb and Poe Dameron. In 2015 worlds, everyone knew TLTs were going to be a huge threat and fielded by the plurality of lists, and with the recent Raider release two aces + palpmobile was a looming threat and counter to TLTs. The basic options are: Fly TLTs yourself, fly a counter to TLTs, or fly a counter to the counter to TLTs. Looking through the top lists, the most common solution was to do a bit of both. For example, Paul Heaver's list is two TLTs, Poe Dameron, who is probably the hardest hard counter to TLTs the game may ever know, and some filler. There are also the straight 4 syndicate thug lists, and attempted TLT counters such as two ace palpmobile and brobots. My personal favorite list though is a testament to good design in X-Wing. Daniel Topczewski brought Dash with Predator, Outrider, R2-D2, Mangler, and a Hull Upgrade, which is a reasonable build, if a bit nonstandard. The second ship is Ten Numb with VI, Sensor Jammer, C-3P0, and a Mangler Cannon. I don't think any of these matches were streamed, but I can't imagine this list ever lost to aces. Ten Numb generally isn't considered good for straightforward reasons: 14 points more than standard B to get a single crit through with a mangler at the cost of almost being guaranteed to be blocked is a hard bargain, but it worked out really well in this meta. The Jammer + C-3P0 knocks TLTs down to about 1 expected damage, and Ten Numb should only be in range of 1-2 of them. Even after ten numb goes down, dash can eventually kill infinity TLTs given enough time with R2-D2 crew. For the 2 ace shuttle matchups, guaranteeing a crit to get through against an uncloaked whisper, or soontir fel is absolutely brutal and makes what would be a hard matchup with Dash into nearly an autowin. A weird meta situation proved that many of the ships that aren't even up for consideration for viability can actually shine with the right build, which is part of what makes a squad building game fun.

Anyways, back to Poe Dameron. Probably an even better meta call than a crazy Ten Numb build, Poe Dameron seems to be the sleeper powerhouse of the new core set. Against aces, at range 3 he has an 85% chance of not taking damage from a 3 dice focus with autothrusters and a focus, with a 92% chance of keeping his own focus token. At range 2 his expected damage taken is still just 1, which considering he's regenerating and moving at PS10 shuts down enemy aces pretty hard. Additionally, against focused TLTs, he can expect to take .78 damage (counting both shots). Shooting back at range 2, he an expected damage of 1.9 at range 2 without spending a focus! In the top 32 of worlds there were two Poe Damerons, which both were at the final table, with effectively the same build (they would be the same, if you could have R2-D2 twice in the same list!). There were 8 total poes taken to worlds, but it seems only 4 of them were "seriously" competing, as the three of the other four were odd lists in the bottom 100 players. There was an exact duplicate of Paul's list at 72nd, and a crazy Poe/Kyle/Jake list at 45th. This isn't intended to be a LET'S ALL COMPLAIN ABOUT POE DAMERON ACE-WING thread, in fact getting back on topic I want to look at how likely new ships are to change the meta. Clearly Poe shows a single new pilot can have a profound effect!

Lastly, let's look at waves 6, 7, the raider and similar fixes and see how much of an effect they've had on the meta. In Wave 6, there were 4 "new" ships introduced in most wanted, the Z-95, Y-Wing, KSE Firespray, and HWK-290. They didn't really change much, Z-95s are still only used at 12 points for cheap dice, Y-Wings are turret platforms, Firesprays are bad, and HWKs are questionably useful, just like the rebel versions. Much more interesting was the release of BTL-A4, which is the last piece needed for a current stressbot. Completely new ships were the Scyk which hasn't performed at all, but contained the mangler cannon. StarVipers were added, they seem to be pretty much useless, but they have autothrusters and accuracy correctors! The last ship, the Aggressor, actually sees plenty of play: Not surprising, with 8 health, 3 agility, and built in gunner!

Wave 7: Three ships that don't really see play, two of them have great upgrades. The Hound's Tooth and Kihraxz have Glitterstim and Crack shot, which enables Swarms in a big way, while the punisher has extra munitions which may be more useful later. The K-Wing is the real monster this wave, with a useful ship and TLT, which I don't think I need to talk about.

Finally, the Raider, or more specifically, updates to older ships. Rebel Aces, the transport, and the raiderall provided 0 useful pilots, but fantastic titles and upgrades for the relevant ships. FFG seems to like to print two fixes for ships when they are updated, a generic fix and an ace fix, while being restrained with each one and hoping one will stick. For the A-Wing Chardaan refit is the generic fix, while A-Wing Test Pilot is the "ace" fix. As the only A-Wing that ever made it to the top of worlds was a generic with only the refit equipped, it seems the generics are now in a good spot. For Imperial Aces, we got Carnor Jax, who is a powerhouse and arguably the ace "fix" as soontir fel doesn't need any help. The Royal Guard TIE title is the more generic fix, while adding the royal guard pilot at 6 to out PS-bid anything 5 or lower. The 3-4 PS range is currently pretty barren so these pilots don't currently do much, but regardless the title has enabled the current standard 34/35 point carnor and soontir builds. The Raider provides a discounted system upgrade slot for the advanced, though there are really only two options: one for generics, and one for aces. Generics get accuracy corrector for free, giving them effectively 2.5 modified red dice and freeing their action for defense, while aces get a guaranteed crit on their attacks at the cost of an action and 1 point. It's still a recent release, but darth vader has proven dangerous with ATC, and the math for tempest squadron pilots with accuracy correctors is pretty promising.

Projecting into the future, we should expect each ship release to have about 50% of the ships be viable. This should decrease over time, as more ships enter as options we get more specialized ships, and as we get more specialized ships we'll get more that are hard to find a role. Wave 6 and 7 both hover around 50% viability, with only one release (TIE Punisher) not having a useful upgrade. This means from Wave 8 (Not including the /fo and T-70) we should expect about 2-3 ships with a fantastic pilot option, and roughly 4-5 upgrades that change the meta. The massively increased viability of turrets from wave 7 is probably an outlier, but if wave 8 is enough to make ordnance viable expect a meta that doesn't resemble the current at all, on the scale of the change from wave 5's PWT and phantoms to wave 7's TLT spam and aces. From Imperial Veterans, we should expect none of the pilots to be useful and one of the upgrades to be viable for each ship. This would be either /x7 or /D for the defender, and either TIE shuttle or Long Range Scanners for the Bomber.

I'd like to do a similar analysis of upgrade cards per wave and seeing where early releases that were non-viable found a new home, as marksmanship might on vessery, but this is a long enough wall of text for one day! Thanks for reading this far, and please let me know if you find any mistakes!

TL;DR

There are effectively two types of ships/pilots/upgrades: those that are "broken" enough to see top level play, and those that fall short of that. The rest is an analysis of which ships make the cut, and why. The last long list is a list of every pilot that was played in the top 32 from worlds. These are effectively the choices you have when building a competitive list, not including the TIE/fo and T-70 expansions which have come out after worlds.

Hey, my post was finally approved!

I've finished putting the data together for upgrades for each year as well. The raw data is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FlrJHwk9NDQoCnnHet2IL-XlfQ0z4meRB1mEUEbfHKc/edit?usp=docslist_api

Let me know what other tournaments I should add, nationals seem like the next logical step but I believe there are other high profile tournaments as well.

EDIT: Here's the preliminary versions of "ships to beat" when looking at new ships, or making your lists for rebels and imperials.

Imperial

12 - Academy
13 - Obsidian
15 - Black, Crack Shot
18 - Howlrunner
22 - Howlrunner, VI, Hull
22 - Howlrunner, Crack, Hull
29 - Shuttle, Palpatine
31 - Jax, PtL, Autothrusters
32 - Soontir, PtL, Autothrusters
32 - Vader, Lone Wolf, TIE/x1, ATC
33 - Vader, Predator, TIE/x1, ATC
33 - Shuttle, Palpatine, Sensor Jammer
34 - Jax, PtL, Stealth Device, Autothrusters
35 - Soontir, PtL, Autothrusters, Stealth Device
35 - Vader, VI, TIE/x1, ATC, Engine
37 - Vader, Predator, TIE/x1, ATC, Engine
39 - Whisper, VI, FCS, ACD
42 - Whisper, VI, IA, Sensor Jammer, ACD
59 - RAC, VI, Vader, Gunner, Engine

Rebel

12 - Bandit Squadron Pilot
15 - Prototype Pilot, Chardaan Refit
20 - Gold, Autoblaster
22 - Blue Squadron Pilot
24 - Gold, TLT
24 - Gold, Ion Cannon Turret, R2 Astromech
25 - Blue, E2, Tactician
26 - Gold, TLT, Ion Bombs, Bomb Loadout
26 - Gray, TLT
26 - Gray, TLT, BTL-A4
26 - Stressbot, TLT
26 - Stressbot, no title
28 - Gray Stressbot
31 - Warden, TLT, Tactician
37 - Miranda, TLT, Tactician
37 - Poe, VI, R5-59, Autothrusters
38 - Poe, VI, R2-D2, Autothrusters
42 - Corran, VI, FCS, R2-D2
44 - Corran, PtL, FCS, R2-D2
44 - Ten Numb, VI, Sensor Jammer, Mangler, E2, C-3PO
44 - Miranda, TLT, Extra Munitions, C-3PO, Seismic Charges, Advanced SLAM
48 - Corran, PtL, FCS, R2-D2, Engine
55 - Dash, Predator, Mangler, R2-D2, Outrider, Hull
58 - Dash, PtL, HLC, Kyle, Outrider, Engine

Scum

20 - Syndicate Thug, Autoblaster Turret
24 - Syndicate Thug, TLT
25 - Syndicate Thug, Unhinged Astromech
27 - Torkil Mux, Ion Cannon Turret, Moldy Crow
47 - IG-88BC, VI, FCS, Mangler, Autothrusters, IG-2000, Feedback Array
48 - IG-88AB, Crack Shot, HLC, FCS, Autothrusters, IG-2000
48 - IG-88BC, PtL, Mangler, Advanced Sensors, Autothrusters, IG-2000
49 - IG-88BC, VI, HLC, FCS, Autothrusters, IG-2000, Inertial Dampeners
49 - IG-88BC, VI, HLC, FCS, Autothrusters, IG-2000, Feedback Array
51 - IG-88BC, PtL, HLC, Advanced Sensors, Autothrusters, IG-2000
51 - IG-88B, Lone Wolf, FCS, HLC, Glitterstim, Autothrusters, IG-2000

For example, if we're looking at seeing how good a 30 point Inquisitor with Juke, TIE/V1, and Autothrusters will be, we can use the close comparison of 31 and 32 point Jax to see how effective he would need to be to see play.

Or, if we're making a list and considering Keyan Farlander with Opportunist, B-Wing/E2, and Lando work at 37 points, he's competing with VI/R5-P9 or R2-D2/Autothrusters in that point range.

the t-70 is sadly just Poe. They didn't give either X-wing the dice mods they sorely needed through Targeting

the FO is awesome, by contrast, but I doubt we'll see it at worlds. It's fun and challenging, and the fact that it's challenging will probably keep it off of top tables when it's far safer just to go with palp aces

Omega S (Crackshot/juke + relay), Omega L (juke + relay), and Zeta L (predator) are all pretty incredible, though, for what that's worth

the t-70 is sadly just Poe. They didn't give either X-wing the dice mods they sorely needed through Targeting

the FO is awesome, by contrast, but I doubt we'll see it at worlds. It's fun and challenging, and the fact that it's challenging will probably keep it off of top tables when it's far safer just to go with palp aces

Omega S (Crackshot/juke + relay), Omega L (juke + relay), and Zeta L (predator) are all pretty incredible, though, for what that's worth

Yep, it seems Poe is the only good enough pilot for the T-70, but I don't think that should be disappointing! There are almost no ships with more than one effective pilot, which makes sense: either a ship is good generic fodder and should be as cheap as possible, or an ace and worth dumping points into. It would be difficult for a ship to be best-in-class in both roles.

In fact, the only ships with multiple "good" pilots are the TIE fighter with PS bid generics and Howlrunner, TIE Interceptor with Soontir/Carnor, B-Wing Blue/Ten Numb, and the K-Wing Warden/Miranda. If more than Poe were good with the T-70 it would be way out of the ordinary!

Omega L with Juke + Relay is the best use I've been able to get out of an FO so far, though I don't know if he's more annoying than effective

Omega L is a hard counter to late game aces, basically. He will simply out-dice opponents that aren't packing four dice (so phantoms, as he can dodge aggressors due to higher PS), especially Vader (poor guy gets no ATC )

"annoying" is a label for dark curse. Omega L actually kills ****, even through thrusters. Takes a while to chew through regen Poe, though, but he can do it.

he's a very modest investment for a very powerful late game

against anything else, though, he's still a high PS juke FO

I think you did a good job looking at the available data and spotting trends. You put the data together well and presented it in an engaging way.

I think the categories "viable" and "non viable" should be broadened a bit. One of the things you mentioned was that someone took the same list that won worlds and rode it to 72nd place. This points out the difference player skill can make on the game. How many of the "non-viable" ships would be "viable" if the best players simply enjoyed those ships more?

I think this will become a bit more evident over time- I wouldn't be surprised if the number of pilots doubles before next Worlds, but there will still (tautologically) only be 32 lists in the 32 best lists at worlds. I guarantee that there will be some great ships, pilots, and combos that would be world champions- if they were in the hands of better players.

But, I mean, there will be even more dead weight also. Because Fel's Wrath is still not awesome.

Omega L is a hard counter to late game aces, basically. He will simply out-dice opponents that aren't packing four dice (so phantoms, as he can dodge aggressors due to higher PS), especially Vader (poor guy gets no ATC )

he's a very modest investment for a very powerful late game

against anything else, though, he's still a high PS juke FO

Last night I took a IG-88c with Predator + Glitterstim + Sensor Jammer + AutoThrusters + Mango Cannon. So, you know. One whole ship was built in dice modification.

I ran into Omega Leader and Carnor.

I did not have a fun time.

remember you still get crackshot and IG-88B

not fun when naked dice get spikey

Omega L is a hard counter to late game aces, basically. He will simply out-dice opponents that aren't packing four dice (so phantoms, as he can dodge aggressors due to higher PS), especially Vader (poor guy gets no ATC )

"annoying" is a label for dark curse. Omega L actually kills ****, even through thrusters. Takes a while to chew through regen Poe, though, but he can do it.

he's a very modest investment for a very powerful late game

against anything else, though, he's still a high PS juke FO

BTW thanks for your OL effect thread you had posted a while back, played at a local store and opponent brought AC Clusters, and kept switching my TL on OL to whomever had him in their sights... needless to say he was infuriated when my 'simple tie fighter' wouldnt die.

as I often say, FOs aren't fodder; they're Elite Fodder

I think you did a good job looking at the available data and spotting trends. You put the data together well and presented it in an engaging way.

I think the categories "viable" and "non viable" should be broadened a bit. One of the things you mentioned was that someone took the same list that won worlds and rode it to 72nd place. This points out the difference player skill can make on the game. How many of the "non-viable" ships would be "viable" if the best players simply enjoyed those ships more?

I think this will become a bit more evident over time- I wouldn't be surprised if the number of pilots doubles before next Worlds, but there will still (tautologically) only be 32 lists in the 32 best lists at worlds. I guarantee that there will be some great ships, pilots, and combos that would be world champions- if they were in the hands of better players.

But, I mean, there will be even more dead weight also. Because Fel's Wrath is still not awesome.

Thanks. And I agree, with this kind of analysis we're only looking at ships/builds that did succeed, not those that might or would succeed once the right build were discovered. I would think that the top worlds performers took lists that they thought were best, and not necessarily the one they enjoyed playing, but it's still another bias to the data.

Omega L is a hard counter to late game aces, basically. He will simply out-dice opponents that aren't packing four dice (so phantoms, as he can dodge aggressors due to higher PS), especially Vader (poor guy gets no ATC )

he's a very modest investment for a very powerful late game

against anything else, though, he's still a high PS juke FO

Last night I took a IG-88c with Predator + Glitterstim + Sensor Jammer + AutoThrusters + Mango Cannon. So, you know. One whole ship was built in dice modification.

I ran into Omega Leader and Carnor.

I did not have a fun time.

If it makes you feel any better, the last time I got to my desired endgame of damaged Vader + untouched Omega Leader v. damaged Poe, Poe proceeded to kill vader through an asteroid at range 3 and in the next two turns threw out 7 natural hits against OL. RIP.

My personal favorite list though is a testament to good design in X-Wing. Daniel Topczewski brought Dash with Predator, Outrider, R2-D2, Mangler, and a Hull Upgrade, which is a reasonable build, if a bit nonstandard. The second ship is Ten Numb with VI, Sensor Jammer, C-3P0, and a Mangler Cannon. I don't think any of these matches were streamed, but I can't imagine this list ever lost to aces.

This is Like my Dash and Ten Numb making the news! I am such a proud papa!

I brought the list for the exact reason you stated...that I would basically auto-win vs aces and have solid match-ups against the field. My 2 losses were to dual TLT Ys with Corran which perfectly predicted my "surprise" Dash movement and smoked him with a green dice fail double tapping and against the Dallas Parker TIE swarm, which given no time limit I would beat, but hunting down injured TIEs in 75 minutes proved too difficult as ten Numb melted way too quickly.

For what it's worth I have switched to 2 TLT Ys myself since Ten Numb is just too vulnerable to TLTs and not great against Swarms which I figured would show up more in the meta with all the new TIEs. :/

Meanwhile I haven't had too many issues with facing Poe. I just focus fire on him and make sure he is in arc. Autothrusters isn't exactly a game breaker with 2 agility ships.

Still love that Ten Numb though!

I think success is not properly defined. Why not viable as every list that won more than they lost? This is WORLDS! Theyre probably almost all good. I really dont know what the definition should be but I know that youre leaving off several quality ships by limiting yourself so stringently. For example, Im Something like 10-1 when I put jake on the table. *you even mentioned some ships made top tables 1 year after they were available.*

I just think setting up statistics with small samples in copycat leagues is not the best way to do it. I thought it was a good writeup otherwise.

I thank the OP for this great analysis, and i agree with 99% of it too.

The one thing i don't see is that FFG made ships that were intended to fail...

Some of the ships that are mentioned, like Turr Phennir for example or Even Maarek are actually quite competitive. I have done well at tournaments with Turr/VI plus Soontir when Autothrusters came out. They were also great Counters to Phantoms for a time.

I think these ships were designed with a competitive goal in mind, but the problem is that at the moment PS bidding is pretty important if you decide to fly aces. So the meta favors ships with 8-9 PS because it frees up the EPT slot. Nonetheless these ships are not just capable in casual ganes. They can actually carry games and are pretty reliable choices. So not exactly designed to fail!

the t-70 is sadly just Poe. They didn't give either X-wing the dice mods they sorely needed through Targeting

the FO is awesome, by contrast, but I doubt we'll see it at worlds. It's fun and challenging, and the fact that it's challenging will probably keep it off of top tables when it's far safer just to go with palp aces

Omega S (Crackshot/juke + relay), Omega L (juke + relay), and Zeta L (predator) are all pretty incredible, though, for what that's worth

"Red Ace" (29)

R2-D2 (4)

Comm Relay (3)

Autothrusters (2)

Total: 38

The Comm Relay is actually optional. If he had an EPT slot, he would be more viable though.

On the FO, i have to agree. Especially omega Leader got my attention.

I ran him instead of the Palpshuttle in this list.

Soontir Fel (27)

Push the Limit (3)

Autothrusters (2)

Stealth Device (3)

Royal Guard TIE (0)

Darth Vader (29)

Lone Wolf (2)

Proton Rockets (3)

Advanced Targeting Computer (1)

Engine Upgrade (4)

TIE/x1 (0)

"Omega Leader" (21)

Juke (2)

Comm Relay (3)

Total: 100

Okay, Vader and Soontir get more vulnerable, but then this is extremely difficult to prioritize against. You don't want any of the three in a 1v1 against your last ship!

I also tried him with Echo and Carnor Jax, which also went quite well!

The Ghost expansion is going to be great for the Rebels. I loved the suggestion in the S&V podcast about using Ezra on Ten Numb or Ibtisam for a guarenteed crit when stressed, or Hera on a Stay On Target Keyan Farlander. And that's not even accounting for the filthy things you can do with Sabine on a K-Wing.

I also think this year will finally see ordnance make it into the tables.

Red Ace is a viable T-70 pilot as a Rebel regen vehicle. Winning by going to time is very possible with his assistance.

The others are a bit weird but can be made viable in the right list.

Xwing is heavily match-up reliant and that can lead to some wonky results from time to time. I do disagree with the statement that things are "broken" enough to be viable. There is a clear Tier of cost vs value and that is hovering around what the OP is defining.

With my ten Numb, IF I would have played Soontir and other ace builds every round, I would have coasted through Worlds and that is why I played Ten Numb. BUT measuring the viability of a ship on a small results window is sort of flawed logic since ten Numb isn't really Top or even middle tier. He is over-costed in comparison to other ships, BUT I played him as a hard counter.

It's all about the metagame and how it shifts with what is popular. Fat Han dominated making up a large portion of the "meta" and allowing it to be a "viable" ship, BUT now Han Solo is no longer "viable" since TLTs wreck him and the large base rule takes away his MOV stacking. A squad with Han can still win a major tourney however IF it gets the right match-ups. He isn't ideal, but to dismiss him is also wrong.

He just goes from a meta "staple" to a "fringe play". Han is still "Point effective" though. Nothing else has changed in regards to what he gives you for his cost. There are just too many counters to him in the meta for him to do well in a major tourney.

Meanwhile I would associated someone who plays 3 TIE defenders and wins a tourney as playing "rogue" in the meta since the defenders are "overcosted". According to the logic you presented IF the Defenders made top table at 2 major events they might be "viable", which isn't necessarily true in a sense.

Every ship has a use and every ship has great/good/bad/terrible match-ups. With the right opponents and with the right players anything can win. BUT obviously Ten Numb for example has weaknesses that are very prevalent. The risk is high with him, but his upside in match-ups is huge.

Good read either way though.

1.) I'd like to interrupt this thread to say that you're wrong about the FO and that it's actually good. I've spammed the hell out of this, but I must pound it into everyone's thick skull: 3x Black Squadron, 3x Omega Squadron, 6x Crackshot. It's very, very good yet I don't think the lot of you understand just how good it is. The only thing wrong with it is that the female pegs on the FO's seem to have slightly different tolerances than older ships so they slip off the male end when you pick them up.

Also all of the named pilots make for good sub-aces for when you have 20-25 points left in a squad. So the Omega Squadron FO and all of the named ones are all good.

2.) Yeah, sometimes a (broken) meta propels niche things to top tier because they happen to deal with whatever is at the top effectively. Pre-phantom nerf you could fly weird **** that would sweep a Phantom player that wasn't good at anything but doing that. You could chain Roark's ability across a bunch of ion weapon ships, or fly triple PS 9/10 A-Wings with missiles, or triple high PS X-Wings and come out on top.

My personal favorite list though is a testament to good design in X-Wing. Daniel Topczewski brought Dash with Predator, Outrider, R2-D2, Mangler, and a Hull Upgrade, which is a reasonable build, if a bit nonstandard. The second ship is Ten Numb with VI, Sensor Jammer, C-3P0, and a Mangler Cannon. I don't think any of these matches were streamed, but I can't imagine this list ever lost to aces.

This is Like my Dash and Ten Numb making the news! I am such a proud papa!

I brought the list for the exact reason you stated...that I would basically auto-win vs aces and have solid match-ups against the field. My 2 losses were to dual TLT Ys with Corran which perfectly predicted my "surprise" Dash movement and smoked him with a green dice fail double tapping and against the Dallas Parker TIE swarm, which given no time limit I would beat, but hunting down injured TIEs in 75 minutes proved too difficult as ten Numb melted way too quickly.

For what it's worth I have switched to 2 TLT Ys myself since Ten Numb is just too vulnerable to TLTs and not great against Swarms which I figured would show up more in the meta with all the new TIEs. :/

Meanwhile I haven't had too many issues with facing Poe. I just focus fire on him and make sure he is in arc. Autothrusters isn't exactly a game breaker with 2 agility ships.

Still love that Ten Numb though!

Xwing is heavily match-up reliant and that can lead to some wonky results from time to time. I do disagree with the statement that things are "broken" enough to be viable. There is a clear Tier of cost vs value and that is hovering around what the OP is defining.

With my ten Numb, IF I would have played Soontir and other ace builds every round, I would have coasted through Worlds and that is why I played Ten Numb. BUT measuring the viability of a ship on a small results window is sort of flawed logic since ten Numb isn't really Top or even middle tier. He is over-costed in comparison to other ships, BUT I played him as a hard counter.

It's all about the metagame and how it shifts with what is popular. Fat Han dominated making up a large portion of the "meta" and allowing it to be a "viable" ship, BUT now Han Solo is no longer "viable" since TLTs wreck him and the large base rule takes away his MOV stacking. A squad with Han can still win a major tourney however IF it gets the right match-ups. He isn't ideal, but to dismiss him is also wrong.

He just goes from a meta "staple" to a "fringe play". Han is still "Point effective" though. Nothing else has changed in regards to what he gives you for his cost. There are just too many counters to him in the meta for him to do well in a major tourney.

Meanwhile I would associated someone who plays 3 TIE defenders and wins a tourney as playing "rogue" in the meta since the defenders are "overcosted". According to the logic you presented IF the Defenders made top table at 2 major events they might be "viable", which isn't necessarily true in a sense.

Every ship has a use and every ship has great/good/bad/terrible match-ups. With the right opponents and with the right players anything can win. BUT obviously Ten Numb for example has weaknesses that are very prevalent. The risk is high with him, but his upside in match-ups is huge.

Good read either way though.

I don't know that these change our list much, most of these appeared exactly once and performed worse than a ship/pilot with the same role in the squad.

On the subject though, I would like to add more than just Worlds. Worlds has a huge bias in that it was 8 consecutive rounds, so I think players were less likely to play draining lists such as TIE Swarms, or lists that are more likely to go to time. Any suggestions for prestigious tournaments to go through?

1.) I'd like to interrupt this thread to say that you're wrong about the FO and that it's actually good. I've spammed the hell out of this, but I must pound it into everyone's thick skull: 3x Black Squadron, 3x Omega Squadron, 6x Crackshot. It's very, very good yet I don't think the lot of you understand just how good it is. The only thing wrong with it is that the female pegs on the FO's seem to have slightly different tolerances than older ships so they slip off the male end when you pick them up.

Also all of the named pilots make for good sub-aces for when you have 20-25 points left in a squad. So the Omega Squadron FO and all of the named ones are all good.

2.) Yeah, sometimes a (broken) meta propels niche things to top tier because they happen to deal with whatever is at the top effectively. Pre-phantom nerf you could fly weird **** that would sweep a Phantom player that wasn't good at anything but doing that. You could chain Roark's ability across a bunch of ion weapon ships, or fly triple PS 9/10 A-Wings with missiles, or triple high PS X-Wings and come out on top.

Also a big fan of the crackshot swarm, though a little less vocal about it A crackshot list made 88th at worlds, but I think the reason we didn't see many crackshot swarms is that worlds is not a good environment for swarms, and not many people own 5+ crackshots yet. Also, the worlds list at 88th was 3 blacks, 2 omegas, and howlrunner, all crackshot. Why run a third omega instead of howlrunner? On a related note, I wish we had the 1 point for juke instead of crackshot on howlrunner in that list.

I thank the OP for this great analysis, and i agree with 99% of it too.

The one thing i don't see is that FFG made ships that were intended to fail...

Some of the ships that are mentioned, like Turr Phennir for example or Even Maarek are actually quite competitive. I have done well at tournaments with Turr/VI plus Soontir when Autothrusters came out. They were also great Counters to Phantoms for a time.

I think these ships were designed with a competitive goal in mind, but the problem is that at the moment PS bidding is pretty important if you decide to fly aces. So the meta favors ships with 8-9 PS because it frees up the EPT slot. Nonetheless these ships are not just capable in casual ganes. They can actually carry games and are pretty reliable choices. So not exactly designed to fail!

Thanks for reading through. I probably described what I meant poorly, there's really three points I'm trying to make with the mid-PS ships I labeled as designed to be nonviable.

The first is ships that are added as an experiment to see if they break the game. I wish I had used Kir Kanos as an example in the OP, but it didn't occur to me until later that I put Turr Phennir instead! Looking at Kir Kanos, he seems to be the original idea behind Juke, the TAP, and /v1 title. Kir is designed to force an opponent to attack him, or face an extra red dice. I imagine they didn't give him an EPT out of fear that he would be too good with PtL, to see if he stuck in the meta. Since he didn't break the game, the designers are more comfortable putting in more powerful versions of his effect, which is to enhance attack when not forced to spend an evade token. We'll see if Super Kir is better in the form of the inquisitor. Also noteworth: Kir with 4 unmodified reds is two average hits, but the inquisitor with a target lock and NO offensive focus is 2.25 hits AND he keeps the evade token for defense. That's exactly the same expected damage from 3 red dice with focus, but you get to keep the evade token and doesn't take into account things like Juke.

The second is abilities that are unfun for the opponent. This is where ships like Kagi come in. Kagi completely hard counters target locks, any list such as those running ATC or TL ordnance will just autolose to him. This isn't really fun for either player, so they show up in places like on high PS shuttles that there's really no reason to take. Kagi is hilarious and fun for both players in epic though, watching a CR-90 try to dodge range 5 of Kagi leads to some silliness.

And finally, some pilots just have too good of competition. I had an ulterior motive for listing Maarek, as he's my favorite pilot in the game and was hoping someone would drop an amazing list in my lap This is going to hurt to write, as I've been trying to make a Maarek list try to work ever since I started playing, but there's a big problem with running him: Darth Vader is better, and for nearly the same price. For Maarek to be good, we need to find a situation where either the 2 points saved by using Maarek instead of Vader are put to amazing use, find a way to abuse Maarek's ability that wouldn't work using Vader instead, make a list that also uses Darth Vader Crew, or simply use Vader and Maarek. I haven't found any luck with the first two, and frankly they seem unlikely as Vader is viable anywhere from 31 to 37 points, and Maarek's ability doesn't provide much list synergy, especially since he wants to be the one shooting last in your list. Making a list that starts with Vader crew solely to prevent myself from using Vader pilot is a bit silly, but there may be a doomshuttle(Jendon)/Advanced Ace/Vessery list waiting to be discovered.

This leaves us with one way to make a good Maarek list: Start with Vader. Starting with a budget Vader(VI, TIE/x1, ATC) at 31, and budget Maarek (PtL, TIE/x1, ATC) at 31 leaves us with 38 points. Target lock synergy seems the way to go, so now to fill the gap we can basically go to Colonel Jendon or Vessery to make the most of the locks that will already be on the board. Both have anti-synergy at PS 6, and jendon is 5 points for TL passing, and 3 points for no range limit, which isn't a very good trade. Vessery fits almost exactly, but Defenders aren't really known for their viability! Once the new Defender things come out, this might be worth revisiting, but we'll have a new problem for Maarek then from the Inquisitor. Juke, /v1, and autothrusters comes in at 30 points and PS 8. Vessery still needs VI to shoot first using an Inquisitor lock, but with what will probably be a more solid ship than Maarek considering the inquisitor can hang out at range 3 with autothrusters.

EDIT: I forgot to mention, Defender Maarek is probably going to have the same problem. If Vessery becomes "good enough", he's going to be an absolute monster. Any list that wants to do cute things with Maarek will only really be able to justify it by wanting a second defender in their list, and now we're back to square one. Double Defenders might be a stronger option than double Advanced, maybe we'll see a Vessery x7/Maarek( x7Defender)/Vader or Inquisitor list make an appearance.

Sorry for the wall of text, but Vader/Maarek + Jendon or Vessery was my first list I'm still trying to get it to work!

Also, a question I forgot to ask earlier. What are the most prestigious events, outside of worlds? Are the larger nationals the next place to go to start collecting pilots and builds? What about VASSAL play?

Also, I've updated the beginning of the post with version 1 of the point reference sheet, copied here for convinience:

Imperial

12 - Academy
13 - Obsidian
15 - Black, Crack Shot
18 - Howlrunner
22 - Howlrunner, VI, Hull
22 - Howlrunner, Crack, Hull
29 - Shuttle, Palpatine
31 - Jax, PtL, Autothrusters
32 - Soontir, PtL, Autothrusters
32 - Vader, Lone Wolf, TIE/x1, ATC
33 - Vader, Predator, TIE/x1, ATC
33 - Shuttle, Palpatine, Sensor Jammer
34 - Jax, PtL, Stealth Device, Autothrusters
35 - Soontir, PtL, Autothrusters, Stealth Device
35 - Vader, VI, TIE/x1, ATC, Engine
37 - Vader, Predator, TIE/x1, ATC, Engine
39 - Whisper, VI, FCS, ACD
42 - Whisper, VI, IA, Sensor Jammer, ACD
59 - RAC, VI, Vader, Gunner, Engine

Rebel

12 - Bandit Squadron Pilot
15 - Prototype Pilot, Chardaan Refit
20 - Gold, Autoblaster
22 - Blue Squadron Pilot
24 - Gold, TLT
24 - Gold, Ion Cannon Turret, R2 Astromech
25 - Blue, E2, Tactician
26 - Gold, TLT, Ion Bombs, Bomb Loadout
26 - Gray, TLT
26 - Gray, TLT, BTL-A4
26 - Stressbot, TLT
26 - Stressbot, no title
28 - Gray Stressbot
31 - Warden, TLT, Tactician
37 - Miranda, TLT, Tactician
37 - Poe, VI, R5-59, Autothrusters
38 - Poe, VI, R2-D2, Autothrusters
42 - Corran, VI, FCS, R2-D2
44 - Corran, PtL, FCS, R2-D2
44 - Ten Numb, VI, Sensor Jammer, Mangler, E2, C-3PO
44 - Miranda, TLT, Extra Munitions, C-3PO, Seismic Charges, Advanced SLAM
48 - Corran, PtL, FCS, R2-D2, Engine
55 - Dash, Predator, Mangler, R2-D2, Outrider, Hull
58 - Dash, PtL, HLC, Kyle, Outrider, Engine

Hopefully this helps answer "What is X points worth" for others, and I'll put the Scum one together when I get a chance. Some of these could use explanations for how/when to use them in a list, as well as full names for upgrades, but I think it's at a good enough place to start.

1.) I'd like to interrupt this thread to say that you're wrong about the FO and that it's actually good. I've spammed the hell out of this, but I must pound it into everyone's thick skull: 3x Black Squadron, 3x Omega Squadron, 6x Crackshot. It's very, very good yet I don't think the lot of you understand just how good it is. The only thing wrong with it is that the female pegs on the FO's seem to have slightly different tolerances than older ships so they slip off the male end when you pick them up.

Also all of the named pilots make for good sub-aces for when you have 20-25 points left in a squad. So the Omega Squadron FO and all of the named ones are all good.

2.) Yeah, sometimes a (broken) meta propels niche things to top tier because they happen to deal with whatever is at the top effectively. Pre-phantom nerf you could fly weird **** that would sweep a Phantom player that wasn't good at anything but doing that. You could chain Roark's ability across a bunch of ion weapon ships, or fly triple PS 9/10 A-Wings with missiles, or triple high PS X-Wings and come out on top.

Oh yeah, amen on the Crack-FO's. What people don't see is that you can beat any current meta list if flown correctly.

And if someone had told me this about the new pegs a few months earlier, i would have kept them apart from the old ones (why FFG, WHY?)

In terms of events I think it's always good to get the Nationals (Although the US one is a little restrictive since you have to attend GenCon) and Regional events. Store Champs are good depending on attendance. There will be some tiny store champs, but the one we just had for example had 45ish people. I think that is worth factoring.

Meanwhile my Ten Numb choice is not too long of a story. Basically I was having great results with Dash with Mangler and Predator and Chewbacca crew BEFORE the second core set and the half point large base rules came out. I played Chewie so I could burn him to prevent the Crits that make my secondary weapon fall off or that take away my EPT and Pilot Ability which cripple Dash. I was pairing Dash with two Blue Squadron BWings. The only thing that I would struggle against was Soontir and Whisper. So naturally I tried to find an equalizer against my worst match-up, which ended up being Ten Numb for me. I decided to sup him up with C3PO and Sensor jammer for the obvious survivability boost and everything was going well.

Once the second core released and the half point rule came in, I switch to R2-D2 crew since there were no longer crits that cripple Dash to make Chewie worth it AND I started going with Hull Upgrade (Even over Shield Upgrade so I can R2 sooner and get more mileage from him) to balance the math on the half points rule. Making Dash an 11 total AND having R2 regen a shield once I am at 5 of 11 damage helps keep Dash worth his full MOV. Of course once Worlds came around the prevalence of Soontir/Vader/Palp Shuttle was at an all-time high and my worst match up which was 4 TLTs, but I was still able to squeak out close wins against in testing so it led me to put my faith in Ten Numb. I knew a great TIE Swarm player was my other worst nightmare and of course I had to play one of the best, AND I only faced one Imp Aces list all day, BUT I figured the gamble of Ten Numb would be worth it. The other upside is that people don’t quite know how to deal with him since he is an uncommon play, plus Ten Numb is very good against “Random Stuff” thus I beat a Jake and Fat Han list and a Xizor Z Swarm list thanks to Ten Numb being a 10 PS jerk.

Like I said earlier, for now Ten has to take a break…stupid TIE fighters…once the new wave hits we’ll see if I go back to Ten Numb. I am sure one of those Ghost crew might go nice with him. J

Oh, I don't know if Poe is the only great T-70 pilot. I'v flown Ello Asty a few times now.. and it's actually really good.

Oh, I don't know if Poe is the only great T-70 pilot. I'v flown Ello Asty a few times now.. and it's actually really good.

Poe mitigates the X-Wing's obvious weakness well enough to be _very_ popular and strong. Asty mitigates a non-obvious X-Wing weakness.