So, I was thinking lately on the value of Green Dice vs total Health, and it got me thinking. How do they compare? How much longer will an extra evade die let me live compared to an extra health (hull or shield).

I have been running some basic computer simulations, but it allows me to run 10,000+ comparison rolls in seconds, so let's look at what I've found!

Let's take a generic attacker with 3 red die, and have a one on one battle with a TIE Interceptor and an X Wing.

TIE Interceptor, 3 Green Dice, 3 Health:

After 100,000 simulations, the tie fighter dies after an average of 4.9 unmodified, 3 Dice attacks. So, if we are talking X-wing vs interceptor, one v one, the x wing will likely kill the interceptor on turn 5, assuming equal pilot skill.

X-Wing, 2 Green Dice, 5 Health:

After 100,000 simulations, the X-Wing dies after an average of 6.01 unmodified, 3 Dice attacks. With that, in our X-wing vs interceptor one v one, the X wing will likely die on turn 6, and given equal pilot skill and unmodified attacks, the x-wing will usually win, hence it's higher point cost at equal PS.

Z-95, 2 Green Dice, 4 Health

Again, after 10,000 simulations, we see that the Z dies after an average of 4.9 attacks. Same as the interceptor.

The real kicker comes when we start modifying results. If you add a defensive focus to the defender, and an offensive focus to the attacker, the interceptor survives an average of 5.2 attacks (not a huge increase), but the X-wing only survives an average of 5.02 attacks, making the interceptor a better overall dogfighter, assuming focuses.

Now, I could run this all day, and it is quite obvious hits are highly dependent on the action economy and the like, but when looking at pure, unmodified attacks, 1 health = 1 evade die, which is likely the reason why the Z and the TIE Fighter get to have the same point cost.

I know this was kinda futile, but it was a fun little experiment...

oh bull

my Ties die after 1 unmodified 3 dice attack routinely

"value" in green dice, don't make me laugh

(more seriously, value in greens only really comes into play when you can back it up with modifiers, specifically focus and/or evades and/or thrusters; the more the merrier

remember, if you keep taking 0 damage on 3 hull you will take infinetly longer to kill than a Ghost taking one damage a turn)

Thank you for saying "health" instead of the other term that refers to how close your paladin is to death.

Green dice have no value, back stabbing little green *****!

Great post. As an avid Empire player and Interceptor enthusiast I've been wondering this very thing, but have been too lazy to do the calcs. Thanks for the info!

I'd be curious how the B-wing and cloaked Phantom fit in as they represent additional extremes in both hit points and green dice.

Green dice are traitorous, malicious, evil little beasts, who laugh routinely when they come up with multiple Evades when you only need one, and howl manically when they turn up all blanks when you need a bunch of them.

Evil little gits, all of them.

Green dice give you higher variance than hull. If you are a Y-wing against an Accuracy Corrector TIE Advanced, you will die, at best, at the end of round 8. If you are in a Scyk against the same TIE Advanced, it's possible to never take damage.

Green dice give you higher variance than hull. If you are a Y-wing against an Accuracy Corrector TIE Advanced, you will die, at best, at the end of round 8. If you are in a Scyk against the same TIE Advanced, it's possible to never take damage.

Be honest you've never flown a scyk in your life, I have they pop from the first shot every time and my experience is not unusual which is why almost no one ever takes em.

The classic question of health vs mitigation.

The short answer is, the better your damage mitigation, the better your damage mitigation.

In other words, its worth does not increase linearly, but shares a relationship with your opponent's expected damage.

On a ship like Soontir Fel, with PTL, Autothrusters, Stealth Device, and a Gloomshuttle nearby, having 3 hp is basically a moot point. He will not get hit by anything fewer than 4 attack dice from a single source. Alternatively, 5 modified attacks of 3 dice per round will eventually do the trick.

The value of Health is that it is Health. It also increases in value with Damage Mitigation (an Aggressor is harder to kill than a B-Wing).

If you want a ship to be truly unkillable, mitigation is best. If you want a ship to last for a reliable number of rounds, health.

I'll add that green dice start being very strong when you have more of them than the attacker has red dice, such as when you're being attacked by high numbers of low quality attacks. AGI 0-1 ships will take a bunch of damage, no matter if a TIE swarm or an HLC is shooting them. AGI 3 stuff greatly prefers to be shot by massed low quality attacks.

Green dice give you higher variance than hull. If you are a Y-wing against an Accuracy Corrector TIE Advanced, you will die, at best, at the end of round 8. If you are in a Scyk against the same TIE Advanced, it's possible to never take damage.

Be honest you've never flown a scyk in your life, I have they pop from the first shot every time and my experience is not unusual which is why almost no one ever takes em.

I've flown Scyks more than anyone else in my game store. I'd say that this year, about a third of my lists have included at least one Scyk. I've even tabled a guy with 100-0 MoV using Serissu and Laetin. Yes, my Scyks pop too. My most recent match saw one get wiped out by Vader at range 3 (hit, hit, crit; cancelled one hit; drew direct hit). But the very first game I flew with them, my Scyk took fire for 3 or 4 rounds without taking any damage. True, that's not skill -- it's dice. But that doesn't take away from the fact that it is possible to avoid several attacks with more green dice. I'm saying nothing about probability here.

I love Serissu. (See link in sig.)

Oh, and thank you, OP, for a fascinating set of computational results!

OP, if your thesis holds, that Health = Agility, then a cloaked Phantom lasts as well vs unmodified attacks as a ship with 8 health and no agility.

The value in green dice is making the other guy angry when you keep being slippery.

So, as more points of reference.

B/Y Wing: 8 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 7.2 unmodified, 3-Dice attacks

Cloaked Phantom: 4 Health, 4 Agility:

Survives 8.6 unmodified 3 dice attacks

Defender: 6 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 9.4 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Decimator: 16 Health, 0 Agility:

Survives 11 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Falcon: 13 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 11.5 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Outrider/Slave I: 10 Health, 2 Agility:

Survives 11.6 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Aggressor: 8 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 12.4 unmodified 3 Dice Attacks

This is kinda fun...

So, as more points of reference.

B/Y Wing: 8 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 7.2 unmodified, 3-Dice attacks

Cloaked Phantom: 4 Health, 4 Agility:

Survives 8.6 unmodified 3 dice attacks

Defender: 6 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 9.4 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Decimator: 16 Health, 0 Agility:

Survives 11 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Falcon: 13 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 11.5 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Outrider/Slave I: 10 Health, 2 Agility:

Survives 11.6 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Aggressor: 8 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 12.4 unmodified 3 Dice Attacks

This is kinda fun...

So basically, this:

There is no correlation between survival and pure agility, as is clear from the bottom graph.

There is a correlation between survival and pure health, as seen in the middle...

...But combining the two as shown in the top graph reveals that there is good, relatively linear correlation between survival and HP+AGI, albeit with diminishing returns at the high end, where all that health is sitting behind no defense dice.

Edited: I decided I better shut up in discussions involving statistics.

Especially when tired, so I have erased my ramblings.

Let's keep it at: "I prefer Health over green dice."

So, as more points of reference.

B/Y Wing: 8 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 7.2 unmodified, 3-Dice attacks

Cloaked Phantom: 4 Health, 4 Agility:

Survives 8.6 unmodified 3 dice attacks

Defender: 6 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 9.4 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Decimator: 16 Health, 0 Agility:

Survives 11 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Falcon: 13 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 11.5 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Outrider/Slave I: 10 Health, 2 Agility:

Survives 11.6 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Aggressor: 8 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 12.4 unmodified 3 Dice Attacks

This is kinda fun...

While you're at it, any interest in adding the results assuming each has a focus? Based on your initial post, I'm assuming this would highlight the impact of larger amounts of green dice. This is also probably more realistic given that most rolls are modified. Thanks!

The green dice give you a probability curve to mitigate hits, no? There is a CHANCE that a cloaked phantom can mitigate 4 hits with 4 green dice. There is NO chance that a B wing with 3 hits left can mitigate the same damage. You are discussing near certainty with low agility ships vs damage (see "Decimator"!), while the probability of further mitigation goes up with agility.

All I know is that the green dice fail me more than anything else in gaming! Although today, I fired a Defender with R1/loc at a Y wing and missed all 8 rolls!

No question, health and agility both provide protection. The value of that protection is not always the same. More health allows a ship to absorb more damage while agility can negate that potential damage. The thing is that health is constant and agility is all over the place. Your TIE Interceptor may have 3 health and 3 agility but it can die to a single 2 dice attack; that may not be the average result but it can happen. Looking at things another way there is no way a ship with 3 hull/2shield and only 1 agility dies to a single 2 dice attack; it may be more likely to see a shield health knocked off but it is still kicking.

I think Stinger's post is doing a wonderful job illustrating that green dice are not the same as health. If I assume his number are correct let's just take (health+agility)/attacks survived and also look at the closest I'm coming to making the numbers the same which is ((Health/1.1)+(agility squared/2.4))/attacks:

B-Wing: 1.25/1.07

Phantom .94/1.20

Defender .96/.98

Decimator 1.45/1.32

Falcon 1.22/1.06

Slave1 1.03/.93

Aggressor .89/.82

TIE Int/Ftr 1.22/1.32

X-Wing 1.17/1.04

Z-95 1.22/1.08

The formula has the max ratio/min ratio at 1.49 which when you say health and agility are even the ratio is 1.64. Just using health plus half of the agility squared gets me to 1.52. Something I find odd is how the Decimator and Interceptor compare.

Health doesn't care how many dice are thrown at it but agility certainly does. That makes all of these comparisons suspect at best.

I have often seen here the classic rule of thumb to compare ships:

(Agility + 1) * (Hull + Shields) = "points"

So Tie fighter has 12 points, T-65:15, B-wing: 16, Firespray 30 points, IG-88 has the best with 32 points, etc

I have often seen here the classic rule of thumb to compare ships:

(Agility + 1) * (Hull + Shields) = "points"

So Tie fighter has 12 points, T-65:15, B-wing: 16, Firespray 30 points, IG-88 has the best with 32 points, etc

What?

No, that's just... no.

I have often seen here the classic rule of thumb to compare ships:

(Agility + 1) * (Hull + Shields) = "points"

So Tie fighter has 12 points, T-65:15, B-wing: 16, Firespray 30 points, IG-88 has the best with 32 points, etc

What?

No, that's just... no.

Great now you've broken him, do you know how many bothans it takes to resurrect him...it's many.

So, as more points of reference.

B/Y Wing: 8 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 7.2 unmodified, 3-Dice attacks

Cloaked Phantom: 4 Health, 4 Agility:

Survives 8.6 unmodified 3 dice attacks

Defender: 6 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 9.4 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Decimator: 16 Health, 0 Agility:

Survives 11 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Falcon: 13 Health, 1 Agility:

Survives 11.5 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Outrider/Slave I: 10 Health, 2 Agility:

Survives 11.6 unmodified 3 Dice attacks

Aggressor: 8 Health, 3 Agility:

Survives 12.4 unmodified 3 Dice Attacks

This is kinda fun...

I have often seen here the classic rule of thumb to compare ships:

(Agility + 1) * (Hull + Shields) = "points"

So Tie fighter has 12 points, T-65:15, B-wing: 16, Firespray 30 points, IG-88 has the best with 32 points, etc

So putting these two posts together you're looking at comparison rates:

B-Wing/Y-Wing = 16 points/7.2 attacks to kill = 2.22

Phantom = 20/8.6 = 2.33

Defender = 24/9.4 = 2.55

Decimator = 16/11 = 1.45

Falcon = 26/11.5 = 2.26

Firespray = 30/11.6 = 2.59

Aggressor = 32/12.4 = 2.58

bonus figures:

TIE/Z-95 = 12/4.9 = 2.45

X-Wing = 15/6 = 2.5

Some are close but then you've got the Decimator getting decimated or cleaning up depending on how these numbers swing. Mount a Stealth Device on it you'd double the "points" which would give it a 2.91 while if we give it to an Aggressor instead it goes to 40 points and a 3.22 and a TIE Fighter/Interceptor goes to 15 points and a 3.06. Now which of those Stealth Device equipped ships is most likely going to make those new numbers? I'm sure it's not going to be the Decimator although it sees the biggest spike.