I was curious, and happened to have Excel open anyway, so I mathed it.
The verdict: a reroll mechanic gives you the most value if the odds on that individual roll are 50%. The second reroll gets significantly less valuable as the odds increase.
Loving the maths! But this strongly suggests to me - the extra points spent on gaining a second reroll are pretty inefficient. Best to pay for Vader or the other Admiral plus upgrades, not both.
That and Ozzel does very, very little for the humble Victory Star Destroyer... Instead, he specialises on the New Hawtness only.
I've been trying to think of a situation in which dropping to speed zero then ramping up to speed two could be useful.
It certainly has its moments but on the whole I believe them to be pretty rare. Dropping an ISD to speed 1 from 3 is better but still not great (the sweet spot seems to be speed 2, generally starting at 3 to close and then rarely dropping to 1 as situations require). At the moment, Ozzel seems best with Raiders and Gladiators, which are both ships that love dropping 2 speed on a crucial turn but might require a burst to catch up here and there, making him useful for both accelerating and decelerating.
I have to confess, my love affair with Ozzel is purely theoretical. I haven't got my wave 2 stuff yet - hopefully in the next few days... But I think the ability to scream in my ISDs/GSDs/Raiders at speed 3, unload the pain at speed 1, and bug out as needed could be pretty awesome.
Yeah Ozzel's effectiveness is in proportion to how many fast-moving lighter ships you have in your fleet. Everything but the Victory can benefit from Ozzel... from the obvious rubber-burning breaks as you're swinging behind enemy ships to starting your ISD at speed 3 and crashing down to speed 1 when you're in engagement range.
The only Admirals I see working for any kind of Imperial list are Motti (Defense), Tarkin (general), and Vader (Offensive). Screed you take if you have gladiators or other crit-activating cards, and Ozzel you take if you have speed lists.
I don't think i will use him as an admiral as I love using him as a squadron too much.
My carrier setup is:
VSD2, Chiraneau, Expanded hangar bay, leading shots
Vader, Rhymer, 2xTIE bomber
That and Ozzel does very, very little for the humble Victory Star Destroyer... Instead, he specialises on the New Hawtness only.
Discovered tonight that Ozzel + Gladiator + Engine Techs means your ship can go anywhere from speed 1 to speed 4 with two yaw clicks on the last move.
Holy maneuverability, batman!
That and Ozzel does very, very little for the humble Victory Star Destroyer... Instead, he specialises on the New Hawtness only.
Discovered tonight that Ozzel + Gladiator + Engine Techs means your ship can go anywhere from speed 1 to speed 4 with two yaw clicks on the last move.
Holy maneuverability, batman!
I have pulled this trick with Demolisher and Engine Techs by using a combined token and command. It really gives you the element of surprise. Ozzel lets you pull that trick any turn, drop speed as needed and then disengage. In any war game, maneouvre is a key element of the game - plus the difficulty in predicting where Ozzel's fleet will be is a great combination.
And to return to the original point: I can get most of the benefit of Vader's rerolls from a few cheap upgrades.
That and Ozzel does very, very little for the humble Victory Star Destroyer... Instead, he specialises on the New Hawtness only.
Discovered tonight that Ozzel + Gladiator + Engine Techs means your ship can go anywhere from speed 1 to speed 4 with two yaw clicks on the last move.
Holy maneuverability, batman!
I have pulled this trick with Demolisher and Engine Techs by using a combined token and command. It really gives you the element of surprise. Ozzel lets you pull that trick any turn, drop speed as needed and then disengage. In any war game, maneouvre is a key element of the game - plus the difficulty in predicting where Ozzel's fleet will be is a great combination.
And to return to the original point: I can get most of the benefit of Vader's rerolls from a few cheap upgrades.
Upgrades that occupy a weapons team slot, and so maybe aren't so great on a larger ship that wants gunnery teams.
Vader makes the extremely dangerous large die pools of the VSD and ISD go from merely very threatening to absolutely deadly, and he let's you do it twice, for ALL your dice.
Ordnance Experts certainly has its place (Raider-I), but the commander and upgrade are hardly redundant.
Expectation of a black die for number of rerolls :
0 1
1 1.25
2 1.4375
Expectation of a black die for number of rerolls :
0 1
1 1.25
2 1.4375
This is my experience, albeit anecdotally. Coupled with Ordnance Experts, Vader with black dice on Demolisher or a Glad broadside was getting me damage in the 6-10 range consistently on 4-5 black dice.
If I understand Ardhaedhel's numbers correctly (big if--thanks for the numbers, btw!), a black die's 25% chance at hit-crit improves to 43.75% with the first reroll, and rolling a second time increases the odds to 57.81%. That's ~3 hit-crits on five black dice. The odds of avoiding blank black dice also seems to go down: a 75% chance at a non-blank result goes up to a 98% chance at a non-blank result through two rerolls. Three hit-crits on average, plus two more non-blank black dice, is a consistent 8-10 damage off of black dice.
Others have said it elsewhere, but double-rerolls are also extremely helpful in getting some of the fickleness out of red dice. The double-hit is the prize on red dice, but at 12.5% odds, the chances of it coming up more than once in a roll aren't great. Add two re-rolls, and the odds appear to fall within the 27.1% and 38.6% on each die (between 1-in-4 and 2-in-5 odds), which is a significant improvement. (For what it's worth, the odds of an accuracy on a red die is the same as a double-hit, so it follows the same growth track). The odds of landing one damage on a red die is exactly 50%, so it's right in the sweet spot for double-rerolls (increases to 87.5% on two rerolls). And the odds of turning a blank/accuracy into some form of damage is between 93-95% on double rerolls. If you can consistently turn the average damage from a red dice (0.75) into 1 or 2 damage, that's going to be significant over the course of a game.
It should also be noted that other means of rerolling come with their own restrictions or costs (beyond just points). For example:
To finish it out, Vader consumes your Commander slot and he wants ships that don't mind giving up a defense token. This would primarily be the Contain token on ISDs and Evade tokens on black dice ships. He also prefers raw numbers of dice style upgrades unlike Screed who prefers crit-dependent upgrades. It all comes down to which method(s) work best for your fleet build. I can tell you from trying Vader with an ISD-I that it was a solid combination, as you can reroll blue dice hunting for Accuracy and black+red dice that turn up blank. Gladiators with Rapid Reload and Raider-Is with Expanded Launchers rounded out the rest fo the fleet.
