Palp + Full Turtle Stealth Soontir vs Procket and Range 1 Gunner Attack - Does attack order matter?

By bmf, in X-Wing

Relevant Squad Info:

Han with Predator and Luke Crew

VI Jake with Procket, PTL

vs

Soontir with Autothrusters, Stealth and PTL

OGP with Palp

Imperials have initiative so you can't block Soontir.

Scenario:

Han with Focus and Jake with Target Lock and Focus in Range 1 of a Focus, Focus, Evade Soontir (with Palp dice modification still unused)

Questions/Analysis:

What is the most damaging order of attack for the Rebel squad? Should Jake attack with Prockets first? Should Han attack and try to strip tokens first with Luke?

What is the probability of killing Soontir? With and without thrusters activated? With and without Han's Focus token?

There is probably too many variables to calculate the probabilities (3 possible attacks with tons of tokens).

I did a few simulations in Vassal and my gut is telling me that in the perfect scenario (Han has Soontir in Arc and has a Focus token) you have about 50% chance to kill Soontir, regardless of attack order. But having Jake attack first, Soontir could completely evade the procket shot and then let Han sneak 1 damage through on the first attack instead of trying to tank all damage. With Palp + AT + SD + Tokens, Soontir can easily tank 10+ hits every round(more if the attacks are 3 or less dice).

I think the right call is for Han to go first, but I'm inclined to just leave Soontir alone until the rest of the list is dead.

Edited by bmf

Soontir with Palp watching his back can easily take 4-5 hits and be fine. Stripping some tokens and the 1 turn of Palp will for sure allow you a great chance of the second attack hitting home, because without protection of those things he is still a slave to green dice (Which are mean). It's a risk going after Soontir if he hasn't bumped, gotten stressed or palpatine is dead, but, it's also a huge risk leaving him free to get out of Han's Arc and let autothrusters do their job. Try to use asteroids to your advantage, try to block, but if it's both your fighters having in arc range 1, well, yes, Han first is smart.

the question is:

where is the rest of the imperial list and how are those rebels still alive?! ;)

Yeah, absolutely have Han shooting first. He has a good chance of either forcing the Soontir player to burn his tokens and Palpatine to stay alive, or pushing through a hit that will take out the Stealth Device. That will maximize the amount of damage Jake can do with his Procket.

the question is:

where is the rest of the imperial list and how are those rebels still alive?! ;)

I just put the relevant squad info there. The rest is most likely Vader...sometimes Whisper/Jax.

the question is:

where is the rest of the imperial list and how are those rebels still alive?! ;)

I just put the relevant squad info there. The rest is most likely Vader...sometimes Whisper/Jax.

It'd need to be Echo if it was a phantom- Whisper would put the imperials a point over even at just VI+ACD

Han shoots first.

Consider:

1. 4 die attack with many rerolls and Focus which if missed triggers second 4 die attack with rerolls and Focus like effect; this is followed by a one time 5 die attack with reroll and focus.

2. One time 5 die attack with reroll and focus; this is followed by a 4 die attack with many rerolls and Focus which if missed triggers second 4 die attack with rerolls and Focus like effect.

Fel may get to defend with 4 dice until he takes a hit and Palp may be able to change one but my thought is that Han has the best shot and cutting things down. If Han shoots first with his 4 attack dice he has a good chance at having enough good results that Fel will need to respond with token at a minimum and possibly Palpatine to negate that first attack. That first attack should take something away from the Imperials and stripping tokens/abilities is good because it triggers Luke if Luke is negated then it is still a win for the Rebels and it make Prockets more dangerous.

If Jake shoots the Procket first he may be able to get as many good attack results out of it as Han would but the Imperials have every reason to do all they can to prevent it from hitting. If the Procket is a miss then Han is as big a threat as ever except that letting a hit come through with the first attack saves facing Luke and can make the counter attack nastier.