Vader vs Screed by the numbers.

By WWPDSteven, in Star Wars: Armada

The Battle Droid R1H4 is back:

Wave 1 gave the Imperial Fleet one of the most popular commanders in the game: Admiral Screed. Wave 2 brings the Imperial Fleet one of the most iconic commanders in Star Wars: Lord Vader. But the debate over "who's better" has been going on ever since Vader's ability text was revealed.
Today, we're going to throw some math at the debate and see what sticks
Vader%2Bvs%2BScreed2.png

welp, now I can never take Skreed seriously again

Cool, that's what I figured. Got to try the Vader you gave me yesterday and he rocked with vsd2s. Constant 5 damage 1 accuracy, more with dominater throwing 6 die side arcs and 8 front. He definitely makes medium range engagements feel like a winning proposal.

Cool, that's what I figured. Got to try the Vader you gave me yesterday and he rocked with vsd2s. Constant 5 damage 1 accuracy, more with dominater throwing 6 die side arcs and 8 front. He definitely makes medium range engagements feel like a winning proposal.

I still feel Vader is too expensive for what he does if as R1H4 concludes that Vader is most valuable when using Red and Blue dice. For close to the same price Ackbar is a much much better value so I dont see why Vader is at his current price point. If he was 28-30 then I would be more accepting of him as a commander but as he stands now he is at the bottom of any lists I am building for Wave 2. Such a disappointment. I expected more from a Sith Lord. :angry:

Edited by Overdawg

Very good analysis.

Cool, that's what I figured. Got to try the Vader you gave me yesterday and he rocked with vsd2s. Constant 5 damage 1 accuracy, more with dominater throwing 6 die side arcs and 8 front. He definitely makes medium range engagements feel like a winning proposal.

I still feel Vader is too expensive for what he does if as R1H4 concludes that Vader is most valuable when using Red and Blue dice. For close to the same price Ackbar is a much much better value so I dont see why Vader is at his current price point. If he was 28-30 then I would be more accepting of him as a commander but as he stands now he is at the bottom of any lists I am building for Wave 2. Such a disappointment. I expected more from a Sith Lord. :angry:

Right, but there's also no analysis of odds for black/blue crits. Obviously with screed there's a 100% chance, once. Vader with 4 blacks I imagine is pretty close, considering 4 blacks for glads is just a 30% chance you don't get a crit as is. Vader drops it to 22% if I'm remembering how to stats right. And Vader gets alot better the more dice you throw, like isd 2s, which are preferable if anything for getting ecms. Ships that can average 8-10 dice are going to naturally like Vader, and he still has utility for black dice users since they carry evades save vsd1's

Screed also works better with Crit: effect cards like Overload Pulse and that ilk.

Cool, that's what I figured. Got to try the Vader you gave me yesterday and he rocked with vsd2s. Constant 5 damage 1 accuracy, more with dominater throwing 6 die side arcs and 8 front. He definitely makes medium range engagements feel like a winning proposal.

I still feel Vader is too expensive for what he does if as R1H4 concludes that Vader is most valuable when using Red and Blue dice. For close to the same price Ackbar is a much much better value so I dont see why Vader is at his current price point. If he was 28-30 then I would be more accepting of him as a commander but as he stands now he is at the bottom of any lists I am building for Wave 2. Such a disappointment. I expected more from a Sith Lord. :angry:

Right, but there's also no analysis of odds for black/blue crits. Obviously with screed there's a 100% chance, once. Vader with 4 blacks I imagine is pretty close, considering 4 blacks for glads is just a 30% chance you don't get a crit as is. Vader drops it to 22% if I'm remembering how to stats right. And Vader gets alot better the more dice you throw, like isd 2s, which are preferable if anything for getting ecms. Ships that can average 8-10 dice are going to naturally like Vader, and he still has utility for black dice users since they carry evades save vsd1's

Still not sold on him, plus you can emulate his ability with Black Dice on select ships with Ordnance Experts and they allow you to re-roll multiple times (one from each firing arc) without disabling a defense token each time. I am not arguing that he isnt good with Blue and Red I am arguing that his cost is too high for just those dice.

Cool, that's what I figured. Got to try the Vader you gave me yesterday and he rocked with vsd2s. Constant 5 damage 1 accuracy, more with dominater throwing 6 die side arcs and 8 front. He definitely makes medium range engagements feel like a winning proposal.

I still feel Vader is too expensive for what he does if as R1H4 concludes that Vader is most valuable when using Red and Blue dice. For close to the same price Ackbar is a much much better value so I dont see why Vader is at his current price point. If he was 28-30 then I would be more accepting of him as a commander but as he stands now he is at the bottom of any lists I am building for Wave 2. Such a disappointment. I expected more from a Sith Lord. :angry:

Right, but there's also no analysis of odds for black/blue crits. Obviously with screed there's a 100% chance, once. Vader with 4 blacks I imagine is pretty close, considering 4 blacks for glads is just a 30% chance you don't get a crit as is. Vader drops it to 22% if I'm remembering how to stats right. And Vader gets alot better the more dice you throw, like isd 2s, which are preferable if anything for getting ecms. Ships that can average 8-10 dice are going to naturally like Vader, and he still has utility for black dice users since they carry evades save vsd1's

Still not sold on him, plus you can emulate his ability with Black Dice on select ships with Ordnance Experts and they allow you to re-roll multiple times (one from each firing arc) without disabling a defense token each time. I am not arguing that he isnt good with Blue and Red I am arguing that his cost is too high for just those dice.

Well hopefully I'm you're next league opponent and I can put my salesman uniform on :P

I think he might be good if you plan on running double ISD-IIs.

It may also be worth pointing out that screed can affect ship vs squadron rolls as well where Vader cannot. It might seem like not such a big deal but with the raider having 2 anti-squad dice, one of them black, it can save some blushes.

I actually was in a raider vs squadron situation running screed the other day and screed flipping that black die to crit/hit and ditching a blue accuracy made the difference between an enemy squadron dying before activation and not.

Its a small, small thing and very situational but it does actually come up!

If your rolling Black dice mainly or using gunnery teams, then Vader is the way to go. If its blue Crits your looking at then its Screed.

Also Vader can be used more than once on the same activation. I think you should use Screed on Crit/Black Dice fleets and Vader on red/blue dice fleets.

My feeling is Vader is better when firing lots of red dice across a number of ships. So ISD, VSD would benefit from him, especially those using gunnery teams

Blue dice are pretty reliable anyway, you can almost always use whatever they turn up. (unless your ISD rolls 4 accuracy, in which case SW7s are a good bet!)

Screed is definitely a good substitute if using raiders and gladiators, because their dice are pretty reliable anyway, and they are more likely to benefit from forcing a crit for special weapon effects.

You have to work out whether the increased damage from vaders rerolls are worth it (hence the analysis!).

You can also reproduce vaders effect on your key ships with ordnance experts or leading shots, if needed.

But both screed and vader present an opportunity cost compared to say Motti, or Tarkin, who give you powerful effects in a completely different dimension of the game.

My own consideration and rough math on the subject leads me to believe Vader is superior the more dice you roll (so +dice upgrades are more value) and with non-black-dice-specialized ships when possible (as Screed's benefit with black dice is considerable, and Ordnance Experts can cheat you out a discount Vader on vessels like Gladiators or Raider-Is and the like). In particular, the ISD-I seems like a perfect fit for him. You'll want rerolls available for the 25% chance per red and black dice that it turns up a blank, and you'll want rerolls for the 2 blue dice to go fishing for accuracy results (as you shouldn't have too much trouble getting damage from the red and black dice, you'd prefer to lock down Brace if possible).

Awesome! Been working on trying to sort some of this myself, but I'm not nearly confident enough in my math skills. :P Very interesting read, as always!

R1H4 is a machine. We've been talking about Vader/Screed for a month, and it was great to see him deliver on this article. One thing that's not accounted for is the fact that Screed can "only" change one die. (Or at least I don't remember it.) Vader always gives you that gambler's chance to greatly increase your damage.

"Well, I rolled a lot of single damage results on red and black dice. If I can just get a couple more ..."

Picks up all the single damage results.

"Wait - you're going to reroll all those damages trying to find the one double damage result on each? Do you realize the odds of succeeding?"

R1H4 is a machine. We've been talking about Vader/Screed for a month, and it was great to see him deliver on this article. One thing that's not accounted for is the fact that Screed can "only" change one die. (Or at least I don't remember it.) Vader always gives you that gambler's chance to greatly increase your damage.

"Well, I rolled a lot of single damage results on red and black dice. If I can just get a couple more ..."

Picks up all the single damage results.

"Wait - you're going to reroll all those damages trying to find the one double damage result on each? Do you realize the odds of succeeding?"

Not biting on this...

Too easy...

;)

I think he might be good if you plan on running double ISD-IIs.

Triple ISD-IIs

120

120

120

36

396

Edited by Ceryliae

Not biting on this...

Too easy...

;)

You should have! I intentionally left it open for you!

"Never tell me the odds!"

I also think a dark Jedi who famously challenged the idea that military might alone was enough,that in fact a little faith in the (dice) force was called for, would have something to add if someone commented on the probability.

Really interesting article, thanks. This helps me shape my thinking on how to build my wave 2 imperial fleets.

It seems like Vader isn't wasted on black dice though, so a mixed fleet of ISD and GSD probably still works best with Vader for the rerolls. However, as noted above the USP for Screed is in those critical effects. With Vader, Intel Officer might be a better upgrade for a GSD to benefit from the raw damage.

I am thinking of using Vader with a VSD1+ dominator + expanded launchers

Give it a try. Roll 3 red, 2 blue dice and 5 black dice, then re-roll any blanks. Seems to me to average out about 8-9 damage and 1 accuracy.

Edited by D503

Generally speaking, if you're running Vader with a lot of black dice, you should also consider using Ordnance Experts.

The Imperial close-range missile based ships all have evade tokens, so are an obvious pairing with Vader's ability, but they also both have Weapons Teams slots that often go empty since Gunnery Teams makes no real sense on a ship that small using close-range black dice that you'd be better off double-arcing with.

For four points, you get the chance to re-roll all/any of the dice once, then pick and choose any black dice you'd like to reroll a second time.

I lack the skill and desire to dig into the hard maths of this combo, but in the few lists I've run it I find it effective, if expensive.

Edited by Tvayumat

My Glad rolled 4 blank black dice last night, Vader turned that into 6 damage, or 8 if you include ACM!

Generally speaking, if you're running Vader with a lot of black dice, you should also consider using Ordnance Experts.

The Imperial close-range missile based ships all have evade tokens, so are an obvious pairing with Vader's ability, but they also both have Weapons Teams slots that often go empty since Gunnery Teams makes no real sense on a ship that small using close-range black dice that you'd be better off double-arcing with.

For four points, you get the chance to re-roll all/any of the dice once, then pick and choose any black dice you'd like to reroll a second time.

I lack the skill and desire to dig into the hard maths of this combo, but in the few lists I've run it I find it effective, if expensive.

I keep changing my feelings on both Vader and Ordnance Experts. Part of me says "I'm rerolling these already, do I really need to reroll a reroll? What are the odds I hit two blanks in a row on black dice? But then another part of me says "you fool! With two rerolls, if you elect to reroll everything that isn't a hit+crit, you can get some crazy damage rolls!" Currently I'm leaning towards the rude part of me that prefaces sentences with "you fool!" Let's math it out together and see if he's right*...

Fishing for hits+crits, rerolling blanks and hits

For any given black dice, the math would be:

25% chance of hit+crit initially.

(75% chance not hit+crit initially * 25% chance of new dice being hit+crit) = +18.75% chance of first reroll being hit+crit (current total = 43.75%)

(56.25% chance of not hit+crit yet *25% chance of new dice being hit+crit) = +14.1% chance of second reroll being hit+crit

57.85% chance for each black dice with two rerolls being a hit+crit

Following that basic progression, we can come to average damage with once-rerolled black dice:

43.75% chance of hit+crit (as above) = average .875 damage

(75% chance of not hit+crit initially *50% chance of hit =)37.5% chance of hit = .375 average

(75% chance of not hit+crit initially *25% chance of blank =) 18.75% chance of blank

So on average once-rerolled black dice fishing for hit+crit average 1.25 damage each

Twice-rerolled black dice:

57.85% chance of hit+crit (as above) = average 1.157 damage

(56.25% chance of not hit+crit after one reroll * 50% chance of hit=) 28.1% chance of hit = average .281 damage

(56.25% chance of not hit+crit after one reroll * 25% chance of blank=) 14.05% chance of blank

So on average, twice-rerolled black dice fishing for hit+crit average 1.438 damage each

Okay, that's potentially fairly consequential once enough dice are involved (Expanded Launchers, Rapid Reload, Concentrate Firepower), roughly a 15% damage increase on the second reroll from black dice while fishing for hits+crits.

Rerolling only blanks

Once-rerolled:

25% chance of hit+crit initially

50% chance of hit initially

25% chance of blank, reroll those...

(25% chance of reroll* 25% chance of hit+crit=) +6.25% chance of hit+crit

(25% chance of reroll* 50% chance of hit =) +12.5% chance of hit

So (25%+6.25%=)31.25% chance of hit + crit = .625 average damage

And (50%+12.5%=)62.5% chance of hit = .625 average damage

So on average, once-rerolled black dice simply rerolling blanks average 1.25 damage, exactly the same as once-rerolled black dice fishing for hit+crit. Please keep in mind that your odds of hit+crit are higher the first way, however, if you were trying to trigger a crit effect.

Twice-rerolled:

6.25% of remaining dice rolls are blank, the remainder are already sitting at hit+crit or hit at this point. So...

(6.25% chance of blank after first reroll * 25% chance of hit+crit=)+ 1.56% chance of hit+crit

(6.25% chance of blank after first reroll * 50% chance of hit=)+ 3.12% chance of hit

So adding to our earlier results, we get...

(31.25% chance of hit + crit +1.56% chance=) 32.81% chance of hit+crit = 0.66 average damage

(62.5% chance of hit + 3.12% chance=)65.62% chance of hit = .66 average damage (rounded)

So on average twice-rerolled black dice rerolling blanks average 1.32 damage, less damage than twice-rerolled black dice fishing for hit+crit. The increases damage by 5.6% over a single reroll.

Ah, but what if we combine these methods? Fish for hit+crit the first time and then play it safe the second?

First reroll fishing for hit+crit, second playing it safe and rerolling only blanks

Second reroll (math is already done for first reroll on the hit+crit fishing expedition)

18.75% chance of blank dice after rerolling everything not a hit+crit already

(18.75%* 25% chance of hit+crit) = +4.69% hit+crit = +0.09375 damage average

(18.75% * 50% chance of hit) = +9.38% hit = +0.09375 damage average

remainder are blanks, don't add to damage.

So +.188 average damage per dice added to the results of the first reroll of fishing for hits + crits (.188+1.25)= 1.438 damage, the same as two rerolls fishing for hits+crits only.

So basically, if you're using two rerolls on your black dice one of those rerolls should be devoted to rerolling everything not a hit+crit. The second reroll mathematically comes out even, depending on if you want to keep fishing for hits+crits or if you'd rather play it safe and only reroll blanks. Up to you. Maybe more math later, I'm not sure.

*All percentages rounded to the nearest hundredth point