Predictions for Worlds

By IceQube MkII, in Star Wars: Armada

What were the top 2-4 lists, anybody know yet?

Won't have any clue until rounds 4-5 conclude today. Right now there should be something like 7-8 undefeated lists with a 55 player field, with maybe 4-5ish of them being at 27 points or higher.

Ah, right. Thought we got further than that....i was watching the X-Wing yesterday!

Recieving reports of top 2 players at 28pts each, with 3-4 players in the 25-26 pt range.

Recieving reports of top 2 players at 28pts each, with 3-4 players in the 25-26 pt range.

28 out of 30 going into round 4 tells me that the level of play is much better than GenCon was.

hope they show a good game today. really want to see fighters in action.

I ran a Vic II with XI7 last night and when it rolled hot in medium range, it ate my AF's. I won't lie... It beat up my AF at long range too. Hot hot hot dice!

My round three game did not go so well. I was up against a VSD 1 and 2 GSDs with Rhymer and two bombers. I made some early positioning mistakes and my opponent's dice were hot, getting me tabled in the sixth round.

Looking at the round 3 pairings list, there are only 53 players. Looking around the room, there are 42 tables. Seems like a lot of people didn't show up.

I ran a Vic II with XI7 last night and when it rolled hot in medium range, it ate my AF's. I won't lie... It beat up my AF at long range too. Hot hot hot dice!

Statistically you'll get SOME good rolls. XI7s can help those lucky few matter more.

I ran a Vic II with XI7 last night and when it rolled hot in medium range, it ate my AF's. I won't lie... It beat up my AF at long range too. Hot hot hot dice!

Statistically you'll get SOME good rolls. XI7s can help those lucky few matter more.

Don't get me wrong, if I only had one or two of the cards to use, I'd opt for it on an ISD. But if you're like me and don't have one yet, it's quite a valid option on the other ships.

My conclusions:

I forgot who said this but...

10 RhymerBall beats All-Ship beats Some Squadron beats 10 RhymerBall

All-Ship = usually Empire... in your face build)

Some Squadron = (usually 2 Guppy + Yavaris + Some Squadron)

With Flight Controllers, Tie Bombers have a 38% of doing two damage to other squadrons. So I started thinking about building a 10 RhymerBall to beat All-Ship builds and kill about 4 Rebel Squadrons from the "Some Squadron" build. In my 2nd Sullust event (shout out to WWPDSteven and his crew), I tried an Empire Carrier build and got crushed... (2-8 L, 5-5 L, 8-2 bye).

All-Ship has no chance vs 10 RhymerBall

All-Ship vs All-Ship will be bloody

All-Ship vs 2 Guppy (it depends but the Rebel player can play keep away... box a Gladiator and then eek out a win)

Someone listened to what I have been saying!

But yes, for a Wave I 300pt Worlds:

  1. Rhymer Ball is a thing. A lesser version of this that is still strong against all-ship boxing is the B-wing / Y-wing spam list for rebels, but those lists suffer badly against other rebel lists.
  2. 3x Whale or 2x Whale 2x CR90 are likely to be more common on the rebel side.

So then we have to ask:

In a field that will contain Rhymer Balls, Garm's Gups, 2x2 Whalevette, Gencon Special, and with the rebels potentially having a smattering of A-Wings, what lists do we think can convincingly win?

I see three possibilities:

  1. IF either a Rhymer Ball or Gencon Special get favorable matchups throughout, both lists are capable of 10-0 or 9-1 victories easily against many lists and could run the table without ever hitting their counter. Luck of the draw could be a large factor, given a large enough sample size of players (e.g. if everyone is 50-50 odds, you expect at least one person to get lucky every single time).
  2. If that does not occur, a 2x Whale 1x Corvette A-Wing list is my next pick, as that has just enough juice to disrupt the Rhymer Ball while being a bear of a matchup for the Gencon special because boxing those ships is brutal.
  3. But for the sake of argument, let me throw out a dark horse as well: a 4xGlad list that also has just enough ties to act as a screen vs. Rhymer Balls.
Edited by Reinholt

My money is not on trip gups but a dual gup list toting Mon Ma and a couple CR90/Token A-Wangs force. Still in the same realm as trip gups but with a couple more tools for flexibility and MM for mitigation (rather than Garm).

What was that you said, Drunk Tarkin?

I guess I did miss on the Garm versus MM thing. Also "token" is absolutely not represented by 8 A-Wangs - but I'm taking it!

Winner was:


CR90 /w Garm
AFMKII-B
AFMKII-B

8x A-Wings.


No upgrades.


Consequently, those who got close with Predictions here are as Follows (in no particular order, or rather, in time order)
Extropia
"Going to have to go with the Assault Frigates being favourites here. Either 2AF+support, or 3AF (quite possibly all ship).
So bummed that it's wave 1 only, though it really has to be. "
NebulonB
As for predicting, 2 AFs, one CC, a couple fighters, mostly A-wings.
Lyraeus
I expect double Gups with mixes of the soup.
Irokenics
I predict that the winning list will be Two guppies with a cr90 and either 3Ywings or 3Awings
And DrunkTarkin despite his poor choice of Admiral, of course, but he's already claiming victory on his own anyway... :D

Yay, decent guess!

Oh **** I think a few of those hit as well as me. Nevermind! Participation awards for everyone!

My money is not on trip gups but a dual gup list toting Mon Ma and a couple CR90/Token A-Wangs force. Still in the same realm as trip gups but with a couple more tools for flexibility and MM for mitigation (rather than Garm).

What was that you said, Drunk Tarkin?

I guess I did miss on the Garm versus MM thing. Also "token" is absolutely not represented by 8 A-Wangs - but I'm taking it!

Tarkin, you're drunk again, stop talking to the stuffed womp rat and go home.

Some time later

Dammit, he always does that, and I always forget collect his tab!

Edited by GronardII

Consequently, those who got close with Predictions here are as Follows (in no particular order, or rather, in time order)

I think a list with 2AF's, and a horde of B-wings would do very nicely. No question that Bwings do better with wave2 and 400 points though.

Hey, I think I got close! "A" is right next to "B".
;)

I predict

Round 1,

dice will be thrown

someone will win

Someone will lose

Ships will be pushed around on the table

Round 2

dice will be thrown

someone will win

Someone will lose

Ships will be pushed around on the table

Lunch will be eaten

Round 3

dice will be thrown

someone will win

Someone will lose

Ships will be pushed around on the table

Dinner will be eaten

Round 4 and final rounds

dice will be thrown

someone will win

Someone will lose

Ships will be pushed around on the table

Come on, Cuban F###ing nailed it!

No, he didn't...

Ships weren't pushed. They were Picked up and Placed.

I was watching.

Edited by Drasnighta

OH, one little thing.

OH, one little thing.

It was almost One-Fifth of his Predictions!

Hey! I think I totally predicted 2xAF 1xCR90 + A-wings as one of my handful of lists that could win it all!

@Reinholt, good call... personally, I would have thought 4 Rebel squadrons MAX.

"I see three possibilities:

2.If that does not occur, a 2x Whale 1x Corvette A-Wing list is my next pick, as that has just enough juice to disrupt the Rhymer Ball while being a bear of a matchup for the Gencon special because boxing those ships is brutal."

Edited by IceQube

Winner was:

CR90 /w Garm

AFMKII-B

AFMKII-B

8x A-Wings.

No upgrades.

This is..... Unexpected.

Winner was:

CR90 /w Garm

AFMKII-B

AFMKII-B

8x A-Wings.

No upgrades.

This is..... Unexpected.

It shouldn't be unexpected.

A-Wings are the best non-Rhymer squadron in the game: Fast enough to act without squadron commands if necessary, and with counter to ensure they are not helpless when doing so, .75 damage per attack against ships, at least somewhat durable. They are the "all-around" ship for the Rebellion, not the X-Wing.

Whales are, as we all know, ballers. And the CR90 in this list is there to even out the activation advantage.

It's essentially an alpha-strike list with staying power. The only real counters it will come up against are probably similar lists with slightly better anti-ship but still enough a-wings to bog them all down in the middle. Even CR90 spam has a hard time with this because the A-Wing is one of the few things legitimately fast enough to keep up with the vettes.

Edit: Shmitty already placed 2nd at Gencon with a variety of this list, in fact.

Edited by Reinholt