Mathematicians: Can you value ACs on TIE Advanced?

By heliodorus04, in X-Wing

The effectively 0-point accuracy corrector enabled by the TIE/x1 title has made that list a wonderful list to play given my temperament. It's really stress free for me, and fosters a 'fly casual' attitude in me.

It's also won me 5 games in a row a (using 4x ACs) and I think maybe a little un-fun to play against by my local opponents.

Mathematically speaking, how does the Accuracy Corrector fair in the statistical models compared to other 2-attack dice ships?

Why does anyone use anything else on TIE Advanced?

It's become my favorite ship in the game.

My understanding is that ATC is better on high PS pilots, especially if they have two actions(Vader/PTL). AC is better for generics.

'Cause 4 TIE/As with AC and Cluster Missiles is gamebreaking in its lethality and simplicity.

(Nice combo -- I like it.)

I have found that Accuracy corrector and cluster missiles on the advanced can be interesting.

Edit: Beat me to it

Edited by librarian101

I tried calculating this, but I'm no mathematician so I might have made a few errors.

For rolling two dice without modifiers

You have a 16/64 chance of scoring two blanks.

You have a 24/64 chance of scoring a blank and a hit.

You have a 8/64 chance of scoring a blank and a crit.

You have a 9/64 chance of scoring two hits.

You have a 6/64 chance of scoring a hit and a crit.

You have a 1/64 chance of scoring two crits.

Overall you have a 48/64 (75%) chance of scoring lower than Accuracy Corrector, a 9/64 (14%) chance of scoring the same, and a 7/64 (~11%) chance of scoring better. So Accuracy Corrector will be helpful to an unmodified roll at range 2-3 75% of the time. And when you have more ships firing, that difference will be higher.

With three dice at point-blank range...

You have a 64/512 (1/8) chance of 3 blanks.

A 144/512 chance of two blanks and a hit.

A 48/512 chance of two blanks and a crit.

A 108/512 chance of two hits and a blank.

A 36/512 chance of a hit, a crit, and a blank.

A 12/512 chance of two crits and a blank.

A 27/512 chance of three hits.

A 27/512 chance of two hits and a crit.

A 9/512 chance of two crits and a hit.

A 1/512 chance of three crits.

So there's a 256/512 (50%) chance of an unmodified roll with three dice scoring lower than Accuracy Corrector, a 108/512 (~21%) chance of scoring the same, and a 148/512 (~29%) chance of it scoring higher.

Of course, these chances swing better with Focus modifying. I tried to calculate for rolling two dice with a Focus token.

With Focus, for two dice...

You have a 4/64 chance of two blanks.

You have a 20/64 chance of a blank and a hit.

You have a 4/64 chance of a blank and a crit.

You have a 25/64 chance of two hits.

You have a 10/64 chance of a hit and a crit.

You have a 1 out of 64 chance of two crits.

So overall, you have a 28/64 (~44%) chance of rolling worse than Accuracy Corrector, a 25/64 (~39%) chance of rolling the same, and a 11/64 (17%) chance of rolling better. With a Focus token, Accuracy Corrector is only going to improve your roll of two dice 44% of the time.

So Accuracy Corrector is really helpful, but its usefulness goes down the more dice you roll and the more modifiers you can have. It seems really useful for generics to give them consistent damage (Similar to why TLTs are useful), but Vader can already get that damage consistently with his two actions and would rather have the possibility of more damage.

Edited by WingedSpider

I tried calculating this, but I'm no mathematician so I might have made a few errors.

For rolling two dice without modifiers

You have a 16/64 chance of scoring two blanks.

You have a 24/64 chance of scoring a blank and a hit.

You have a 8/64 chance of scoring a blank and a crit.

You have a 9/64 chance of scoring two hits.

You have a 6/64 chance of scoring a hit and a crit.

You have a 1/64 chance of scoring two crits.

Overall you have a 48/64 (75%) chance of scoring lower than Accuracy Corrector, a 9/64 (14%) chance of scoring the same, and a 7/64 (~11%) chance of scoring better. So Accuracy Corrector will be helpful to an unmodified roll at range 2-3 75% of the time. And when you have more ships firing, that difference will be higher.

With three dice at point-blank range...

You have a 64/512 (1/8) chance of 3 blanks.

A 144/512 chance of two blanks and a hit.

A 48/512 chance of two blanks and a crit.

A 108/512 chance of two hits and a blank.

A 36/512 chance of a hit, a crit, and a blank.

A 12/512 chance of two crits and a blank.

A 27/512 chance of three hits.

A 27/512 chance of two hits and a crit.

A 9/512 chance of two crits and a hit.

A 1/512 chance of three crits.

So there's a 256/512 (50%) chance of an unmodified roll with three dice scoring lower than Accuracy Corrector, a 108/512 (~21%) chance of scoring the same, and a 148/512 (~29%) chance of it scoring higher.

Of course, these chances swing better with Focus modifying. I tried to calculate for rolling two dice with a Focus token.

With Focus, for two dice...

You have a 4/64 chance of two blanks.

You have a 20/64 chance of a blank and a hit.

You have a 4/64 chance of a blank and a crit.

You have a 25/64 chance of two hits.

You have a 10/64 chance of a hit and a crit.

You have a 1 out of 64 chance of two crits.

So overall, you have a 28/64 (~44%) chance of rolling worse than Accuracy Corrector, a 25/64 (~39%) chance of rolling the same, and a 11/64 (17%) chance of rolling better. With a Focus token, Accuracy Corrector is only going to improve your roll of two dice 44% of the time.

So Accuracy Corrector is really helpful, but its usefulness goes down the more dice you roll and the more modifiers you can have. It seems really useful for generics to give them consistent damage (Similar to why TLTs are useful), but Vader can already get that damage consistently with his two actions and would rather have the possibility of more damage.

This is a good analysis. Being explicit makes it easier for people to follow.

I think another point you're really showing here is how useful AC is for unmodified dice, freeing up your Tie Advanceds to barrel roll or evade every round without sacrificing a ton of offense.

Although I appreciate your analysis and value your conclusions, I feel like it's necessary for me to say this:

"Never tell me the odds!"

But in this case, thanks for telling me the odds.

With three dice at point-blank range...

You have a 64/512 (1/8) chance of 3 blanks.

A 144/512 chance of two blanks and a hit.

A 48/512 chance of two blanks and a crit.

A 108/512 chance of two hits and a blank.

A 36/512 chance of a hit, a crit, and a blank.

A 12/512 chance of two crits and a blank.

A 27/512 chance of three hits.

A 27/512 chance of two hits and a crit.

A 9/512 chance of two crits and a hit.

A 1/512 chance of three crits.

So there's a 256/512 (50%) chance of an unmodified roll with three dice scoring lower than Accuracy Corrector, a 108/512 (~21%) chance of scoring the same, and a 148/512 (~29%) chance of it scoring higher.

Nicely done. Thanks for the work.

Just for the record: there seems to be a small mistake. Your probabilities for 3 dice don't add up to 512/512. It took me a while to find it, but there's actually a 72/512 chance of a hit, a crit, and a blank. It doesn't change the end result however. You were right with the overall probabilities of scoring better/worse with Accuracy Corrector. This upgrade is definitely worth it for generics.

'Cause 4 TIE/As with AC and Cluster Missiles is gamebreaking in its lethality and simplicity.

(Nice combo -- I like it.)

I ran the numbers on this and found that 5-dice Proton Rockets has better damage output on anything with 2 or more defense dice (assuming we keep AC for both). If you're able to focus for the Cluster Missiles (i.e. you already had the TL), then it's only out matched against 3 or more defense dice. That makes it fine for attacking Decimators or TLT carriers, but much less useful for most other ships.

It's important to realize that while you're rolling more red dice with CM, they're also rolling more green dice. CM may have more range than PRockets (1-2 vs 1), but since it only requires a focus (and doesn't cause a spend) PRockets are actually much easier to get an opportunity to fire, especially on generics (TLs are very sensitive to pilot skill).

Full breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lzUR7mNqguGh7BoBTqLiCKue1FUUBuZd7y5op7dP25U/edit?usp=sharing

Edited by keyboardr

TLT beats AC on the fact that there needs to be more evade dice to block TLT against AC.

1 evade dice will be around 1 hits from AC and almost 2 hits from TLT.

2 evade dice can block AC but TLT can still over shoot it.

'Cause 4 TIE/As with AC and Cluster Missiles is gamebreaking in its lethality and simplicity.

(Nice combo -- I like it.)

I ran the numbers on this and found that 5-dice Proton Rockets has better damage output on anything with 2 or more defense dice (assuming we keep AC for both). If you're able to focus for the Cluster Missiles (i.e. you already had the TL), then it's only out matched against 3 or more defense dice. That makes it fine for attacking Decimators or TLT carriers, but much less useful for most other ships.

It's important to realize that while you're rolling more red dice with CM, they're also rolling more green dice. CM may have more range than PRockets (1-2 vs 1), but since it only requires a focus (and doesn't cause a spend) PRockets are actually much easier to get an opportunity to fire, especially on generics (TLs are very sensitive to pilot skill).

Full breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lzUR7mNqguGh7BoBTqLiCKue1FUUBuZd7y5op7dP25U/edit?usp=sharing

But as someone who has extensive play time with Prockets, it is VERY difficult to maintain that R1 when they move after you. Given, I'm coming from the point of view of a PS8 ace vs. a PS9 ace, so i'm assuming there'd be a some sort of difference when you spam Prockets vs. having a single one, but the point remains that prockets are more difficult to get off than a cluster missile.

Also, regarding the probabilities, especially those calculated with a focus token, the main thing that wasn't mentioned is that AC doesn't require you to spend your focus on the attack. Therefore, you can use it for defense, or even better, take an evade. That means every turn you basically "regen" a shield on a swarm of 21 point ships. It makes it very difficult to get damage through, but doesn't hamper your offensive potential.

TLT beats AC on the fact that there needs to be more evade dice to block TLT against AC.

1 evade dice will be around 1 hits from AC and almost 2 hits from TLT.

2 evade dice can block AC but TLT can still over shoot it.

So overall, you have a 28/64 (~44%) chance of rolling worse than Accuracy Corrector, a 25/64 (~39%) chance of rolling the same, and a 11/64 (17%) chance of rolling better. With a Focus token, Accuracy Corrector is only going to improve your roll of two dice 44% of the time.

So Accuracy Corrector is really helpful, but its usefulness goes down the more dice you roll and the more modifiers you can have. It seems really useful for generics to give them consistent damage (Similar to why TLTs are useful), but Vader can already get that damage consistently with his two actions and would rather have the possibility of more damage.

I'm not sure that's the right way to look at it, as AC guarantees you the two hits, while allowing for the possibility of doing more damage. At range one - if you roll two hits and a crit, you don't use your Accuracy Correcter, simple as that.

Your minimum return is always going to be two hits, regardless of what you choose to do with your action. If you do more damage with a natural roll, fantastic. If you could potentially do more damage using a focus token, then you get the choice between maxing out your damage (i.e. if you have a potential killing blow available) or taking the two hits and saving your focus token for defense.

Say for example you're attacking a ship at range one and roll three focus results. You can use your focus to turn all three to hits (which you'd probably choose if it had 1-2 health left, or if you were shooting after it) or using your Accuracy Corrector to take two hits (which you'd do if you were unlikely to finish it off and it was shooting after you, or if other ships had you in arc and could potentially finish you off).

The value is in AC is in more than just maths, it's in flexibility, and being able to respond to specific situations.

I very much agree with the above.

Accuracy correctors isn't just about guaranteed results (which as I say is the primary reason I play it), but it is also excellent in action economy. Focus every time or evade. Once in a while a Target Lock for a possible missile.

If an AC-ship bumps, oh well.

Might need to dig around or listen to past Nova Squadron Radio podcasts. I know MajorJuggler has run the numbers.

Basically any 2 attack dice ship with a systems slot will need to be over-costed by at least 2 points or Accuracy Corrector will make it over-powered. The ability to throw a perfect roll every single attack allows a ship to barrel roll, evade, whatever without ever losing offensive output. Is fine on Advanced because it was broken/overcosted before. Is OK on Punisher because its overcosted as a pure gunship as well.

AC is not as useful on 3 red dice obviously so not a huge deal on Brobots. Basically useless on HLC shots.

Might need to dig around or listen to past Nova Squadron Radio podcasts. I know MajorJuggler has run the numbers.

Basically any 2 attack dice ship with a systems slot will need to be over-costed by at least 2 points or Accuracy Corrector will make it over-powered. The ability to throw a perfect roll every single attack allows a ship to barrel roll, evade, whatever without ever losing offensive output. Is fine on Advanced because it was broken/overcosted before. Is OK on Punisher because its overcosted as a pure gunship as well.

AC is not as useful on 3 red dice obviously so not a huge deal on Brobots. Basically useless on HLC shots.

'Cause 4 TIE/As with AC and Cluster Missiles is gamebreaking in its lethality and simplicity.

(Nice combo -- I like it.)

I ran the numbers on this and found that 5-dice Proton Rockets has better damage output on anything with 2 or more defense dice (assuming we keep AC for both). If you're able to focus for the Cluster Missiles (i.e. you already had the TL), then it's only out matched against 3 or more defense dice. That makes it fine for attacking Decimators or TLT carriers, but much less useful for most other ships.

It's important to realize that while you're rolling more red dice with CM, they're also rolling more green dice. CM may have more range than PRockets (1-2 vs 1), but since it only requires a focus (and doesn't cause a spend) PRockets are actually much easier to get an opportunity to fire, especially on generics (TLs are very sensitive to pilot skill).

Full breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lzUR7mNqguGh7BoBTqLiCKue1FUUBuZd7y5op7dP25U/edit?usp=sharing

But as someone who has extensive play time with Prockets, it is VERY difficult to maintain that R1 when they move after you. Given, I'm coming from the point of view of a PS8 ace vs. a PS9 ace, so i'm assuming there'd be a some sort of difference when you spam Prockets vs. having a single one, but the point remains that prockets are more difficult to get off than a cluster missile.

Also, regarding the probabilities, especially those calculated with a focus token, the main thing that wasn't mentioned is that AC doesn't require you to spend your focus on the attack. Therefore, you can use it for defense, or even better, take an evade. That means every turn you basically "regen" a shield on a swarm of 21 point ships. It makes it very difficult to get damage through, but doesn't hamper your offensive potential.

Not to mention that the analysis appears to neglect that AC applies to both Cluster Missiles rolls. So a CM attack has a minimum of 4 hits (of a maximum 6) before defense dice are applied, compared to the minimum 2 (maximum 5) of Proton Rockets.

TLT beats AC on the fact that there needs to be more evade dice to block TLT against AC.

1 evade dice will be around 1 hits from AC and almost 2 hits from TLT.

2 evade dice can block AC but TLT can still over shoot it.

I hope you mean ATC, there's no reason to drag TLTs into this thread!

Well it did win worlds.

ATC is is a guaranteed crits without using the reroll for a target lock. However if desperate enough you can burn the TL for a Reroll but you would only do that if you rolled 3 blanks. If it were 2 you would just ATC to add a target lock.

Now using simple logic 1 critical hit is easier to dodge than 2 hits which puts AC higher than ATC. And of course we already know TLT is stupid crazy to dodge. The thing is AC has higher potential but that adds for more variance. on a bad roll ATC only gives you 1 crit, on a good roll 2 hits and a crit which is better than AC. Of course AC is caped at 2 hits where ATC has a max of 4 crits.

'Cause 4 TIE/As with AC and Cluster Missiles is gamebreaking in its lethality and simplicity.

(Nice combo -- I like it.)

I ran the numbers on this and found that 5-dice Proton Rockets has better damage output on anything with 2 or more defense dice (assuming we keep AC for both). If you're able to focus for the Cluster Missiles (i.e. you already had the TL), then it's only out matched against 3 or more defense dice. That makes it fine for attacking Decimators or TLT carriers, but much less useful for most other ships.

It's important to realize that while you're rolling more red dice with CM, they're also rolling more green dice. CM may have more range than PRockets (1-2 vs 1), but since it only requires a focus (and doesn't cause a spend) PRockets are actually much easier to get an opportunity to fire, especially on generics (TLs are very sensitive to pilot skill).

Full breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lzUR7mNqguGh7BoBTqLiCKue1FUUBuZd7y5op7dP25U/edit?usp=sharing

But as someone who has extensive play time with Prockets, it is VERY difficult to maintain that R1 when they move after you. Given, I'm coming from the point of view of a PS8 ace vs. a PS9 ace, so i'm assuming there'd be a some sort of difference when you spam Prockets vs. having a single one, but the point remains that prockets are more difficult to get off than a cluster missile.

Also, regarding the probabilities, especially those calculated with a focus token, the main thing that wasn't mentioned is that AC doesn't require you to spend your focus on the attack. Therefore, you can use it for defense, or even better, take an evade. That means every turn you basically "regen" a shield on a swarm of 21 point ships. It makes it very difficult to get damage through, but doesn't hamper your offensive potential.

I've been flying with PRockets on my two AC Tempests for a while and I usually get a chance to fire at least one of them. I mostly use them for area denial to control my opponent's movement, but it makes an otherwise super-consistent damage dealer able to take advantage of opportunity shots. And you don't necessarily have to fire them to get a big effect. Contrast this with Cluster Missiles where I have to know who I'm shooting against ahead of time.

'Cause 4 TIE/As with AC and Cluster Missiles is gamebreaking in its lethality and simplicity.

(Nice combo -- I like it.)

I ran the numbers on this and found that 5-dice Proton Rockets has better damage output on anything with 2 or more defense dice (assuming we keep AC for both). If you're able to focus for the Cluster Missiles (i.e. you already had the TL), then it's only out matched against 3 or more defense dice. That makes it fine for attacking Decimators or TLT carriers, but much less useful for most other ships.

It's important to realize that while you're rolling more red dice with CM, they're also rolling more green dice. CM may have more range than PRockets (1-2 vs 1), but since it only requires a focus (and doesn't cause a spend) PRockets are actually much easier to get an opportunity to fire, especially on generics (TLs are very sensitive to pilot skill).

Full breakdown: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lzUR7mNqguGh7BoBTqLiCKue1FUUBuZd7y5op7dP25U/edit?usp=sharing

But as someone who has extensive play time with Prockets, it is VERY difficult to maintain that R1 when they move after you. Given, I'm coming from the point of view of a PS8 ace vs. a PS9 ace, so i'm assuming there'd be a some sort of difference when you spam Prockets vs. having a single one, but the point remains that prockets are more difficult to get off than a cluster missile.

Also, regarding the probabilities, especially those calculated with a focus token, the main thing that wasn't mentioned is that AC doesn't require you to spend your focus on the attack. Therefore, you can use it for defense, or even better, take an evade. That means every turn you basically "regen" a shield on a swarm of 21 point ships. It makes it very difficult to get damage through, but doesn't hamper your offensive potential.

Not to mention that the analysis appears to neglect that AC applies to both Cluster Missiles rolls. So a CM attack has a minimum of 4 hits (of a maximum 6) before defense dice are applied, compared to the minimum 2 (maximum 5) of Proton Rockets.

This was applied in the numbers. It turns out that the extra green dice being rolled cancel this out. What you might be forgetting is that PRockets requires a focus, but doesn't require it to be spent, so you still have it available during the attack. From a mean damage standpoint, that's a high hit rate.

Edited by keyboardr

I hope you mean ATC, there's no reason to drag TLTs into this thread!

Well it did win worlds.

But you can't put on an Advanced which seems like one of the requirements for bringing it up in a thread titled "Mathematicians: Can you value ACs on TIE Advanced?".