X-Wing Probability Calculator

By IronWardog, in X-Wing

Added Juke and Crackshot.

Amazing resource, thank you wardog! Might actually help me to improve my game...

You're welcome!

Added Lando and cluster missiles.

Also fixed 2 issues:

-LoneWolf wasn't producing evade results

-Calculating results for 0 agility defenders with evade tokens were keeping token results

Edited by IronWardog

Fixed proton torpedo ability was only triggering when the roll had at least 2 focus (ability was underperforming).

Edited by IronWardog

Great work, I love the simplicity.

Added Palpatine.

Never tell me the odds!!

Added R7.

Added multi result version with line chart: http://xwingcalculator.ddns.net/diceuilm.html

Allows you to see the result of multiple calculations at the same time.

Edited by IronWardog

Never tell me the odds.

Added Ezra.

just tried it out and am enjoying it a lot

Edited by shotbyscott

Attacking reroll abilities are now more aware of other abilities (you'll notice a slight improvement in some corner cases).

Added Chiraneau and Ezra (Crew).

And naturally, the first thing I do is test gunner, cluster missiles and TLT with 15 dice.

edit: Horton+TLT doesn't seem to work either.

Edited by Hondo Ohnaka

Horton had a left over bug, it's fixed now. Thanks.

Rolling 15 dice on clusters is probably going to a very long time and a take up a lot of memory to run but if your computer is up to it it should run it. Gunner + clusters/TLT is not currently supported though (noted by the *).

Added Ten Numb+Mangler Cannon on request. It simulates the fact that in these conditions the first hit will always go through.

Will you put up Homing Missile vs. Stealth Soontir Fel? I'm really curious on the numbers.

You can run that scenario on the calculator already. Here are the results:

(t means target lock, f means focus)

4, t vs 4, f

0: 0.4959592819213867
1: 0.28365325927734375
2: 0.16407394409179688
3: 0.05005645751953125
4: 0.006257057189941406
Expected Damage: 0.7869987487792969
or
4, ft vs 4, f

0: 0.2431287281215191
1: 0.35351648926734924
2: 0.2821650356054306
3: 0.10591372847557068
4: 0.015276018530130386

Expected Damage: 1.296691820025444
Edited by IronWardog

You forgot the Focus on the Homing Missile from LRS.

OK....so 1.29 on the first missile. 2.25 on the 2nd (in case he fully evades the first one). 2.62 if he was hit the first time.

I like my Tie Bombers firing at Soontir Fel. Two Homing Missiles should see Soontir dead.

Edited by heychadwick

Edited the previous post with additional attacker focus.

Added Guidance chips (initial implementation, it is very aggressively implemented so the "chance to keep" values shown are most likely lower than a human player would get. I may do a second implementation and make the usage more intelligent.)

Added mini-FAQ to the first post.

Added Rage. It will only perform the up-to-3 dice reroll, you need to manually add the focus.

Fixed an issue in the interaction between crackshot and evade tokens. Crackshot was overperforming against defenders with evade tokens.

Thanks to ElCarlos for finding the bug.

Added "Tokenless Defender" information. This shows the probability of the defender having no tokens after the attack.

This information only appears if the defender would have tokens to spend.