The way I'm looking at this C-3PO needs to stop damage three times in match to be better than Chewie (I'm ignoring the point cost difference because I can't really math). It used to be fairly straight forward to work this out for a one Agility ship. If C-3PO always guessed "0" he had a 5 out of 8 chance of being right. C-3PO wouldn't be invoked unless there was damage to block and if he was right he'd prevent a point of damage. I think that works out to something close to using C-3PO in three rounds breaks even with Chewie and using him in 5 puts him ahead.

With the advent of TLT, C-3PO becomes harder to evaluate while Chewie remains the same. There will be many rounds that C-3PO guessing "0" won't get enough evades to matter and guessing "1" will be needed.

Am I looking at this wrong or is Chewie a stronger crew against TLT spam than C-3PO?

Chewie is a discard, giving 2 hitpoints back essentially.

By the looks of this i'd be inclined to say C3PO would edge him out, but actual math would be required to confirm one way or another.

I'd still pick C3PO, just incase i had to fight something that wasn't TLT.

put that yt1300 away, its dead for now...

Yea, would have to math it out, but you can save 3PO for the times they only get 1 hit, which should be at least 1-2 times per game.

TL;DR: Yeah, Chewie is at least worth serious consideration in a TLT-heavy metagame.

The way I'm looking at this C-3PO needs to stop damage three times in match to be better than Chewie.

Right. Chewie is a flat 2 hit points (actually better, since you can choose a crit to discard, but that's so variable I'll set it aside for now), while Threepio is an average of 5/8 of a hit point per turn. If the Falcon survives through three rounds of attacks, Threepio is worth an average of 1.875 hit points--less than Chewie. If the Falcon survives four rounds of attacks, Threepio is worth 2.5 hit points.

TLT changes that math in two ways--one obvious, and one not. The first way is that because TLT falls between 3 and 4 attack dice in value, going up against TLT spam reduces the life expectancy of the Falcon. (The closer you get to that three-round threshold, the more Chewie is worth in comparison to Threepio.)

The second way is that an additional evade token is worth less against TLT than against most attacks: if you're facing a regular 3-dice attack, a successful guess with Threepio saves you a point of damage. Against TLT, a successful Threepio guess helps only if it would make the attack miss. The effect won't be large, but in addition to considering the regular three-round threshold, Threepio's effectiveness has to be weighted down a little bit more.

I'd actually say R2-d2 is the go to now

risk gamble, sure, but Chewie's a one time toss while R2-d2 continues to accumulate value for every round after the 2nd in which it is used

depends on how much you like the new damage deck, though

Yeah played last night with yv666 for the first time and the thing that really hurt it was the HWK with tlt it stripped more hit points than poe and tycho combined.

put that yt1300 away, its dead for now...

Not really. It can actually do really well against TLT carriers (Y-Wings and Hwks), by exploiting the range 1 donut hole. I find Hwks to be a terrible TLT carrier...too slow, fragile, and terrible primary weapon firepower. K-Wings are a different story with a primary weapon turret and SLAM, but they are more expensive.

In terms of C3PO vs Chewie. I feel like C3PO is still worth while. Many times TLT will roll only 1 hit. You can also take an evade + C3PO. You can guess more than zero evades etc. You should easily negate 2 damage a game unless the TLTs are highly modified (R4 Agro/Recon Spec).

bmf's got it right

the forum heavily exaggerates the power of TLTs because they expect every TLT to always have a shot and believe expected values have them landing hits with every shot. On the table, however, that is strictly untrue (i've missed ******* shuttles 50% of the time before)

in addition, unlike PWTs, TLTs can actually be outplayed due to the exploitable doughnut hole. YT-1300s all have ridiculous displacement between a crazy dial and EU; exploiting the hole (or ranges by trying to stay out of range of every TLT save one) are possible ways in which to beat their superior firepower

I will also point out that Chewbacca is very easily better on ships with 2 agility, which are naturally better vs TLTs anyway...

I run Chewie with Jan Ors + Recon Spec. It makes it a little better versus TLT due to me actually being able to roll an evade, but still... It's not a good matchup...

Chewie is best on a YV as a skinned gunner