Mathematically, what are the best upgrades?

By Demaratus, in Star Wars: Armada

I've been doing a lot of number crunching to try and determine what the most efficient upgrades are to improve damage output. I am far from done, but so far I've learned a few things:

Warlord by itself is garbage; Warlord with H9 is okay efficiency wise. From an absolute damage perspective, it's great, almost doubling the expected value of damage of a VSD's red dice. Turbolaser RRC is even better efficiency wise, but doesn't increase expected value as much in an absolute sense. But, TRRC you can throw on almost anything and get a good benefit, and on the rebel side you can put it on lots of ships because you don't have to pair it with Needa.

Ordnance Experts is the most efficient upgrade in the game if your ship is throwing four black dice. The next most efficient is SW-7 on an ISD-II.

Now, I just said that and you're thinking: what about Screed and ACM? Well, ACM by itself is just slightly less efficient than than say SW-7 Ions on an ISD-II and about a fifth less efficient than the Ordnance Experts on the side arc of a GSD I, when used on a ship with four dice in a shot. When combined with a reroll ability like Vader or Ordnance Experts on a ship with four dice, it's the most efficient upgrade compared to all the others I've calculated so far. Screed actually only improves the EV from 1.79 when using rerolls to obviously a value of 2. Is that worth it? When you could be taking Motti or Tarkin instead, i think it's not as clear cut as you'd think, now that Ordnance Experts is available. And, when you consider OE raises the EV of the other black dice in the pool, it's the clear winner if you're throwing 3 or more black dice and want ACM to trigger.

Also, interestingly, Enhanced Armament adds 2 black dice, so +2 EV on a Glad side arc. Or, you could take OE and ACM and get +2.79 for 2 less points. Or, you could really big a big spender and go with Vader or OE and get +3 EV on a Glad and put all the damage into one shield segment. Is it worth it? I love the fact that the best answer is "it depends...".

Leading Shots is really good on the ISD-I: it's improves the base damage as much as Ordnance Experts would, but it improves the red dice too so you can hit harder at range. This combo seems to be one of the strongest offensively IMO. The downside is you can't take ECM on an ISD I...

Finally, for damage per shot, the effecient upgrades are much more efficient than adding another ship naked ship. Granted activation economy, blocking, and extra shields/hull may outweigh this, but if you're trying to sling the most damage alone then some damage upgrades will get you there more efficiently points wise. This might be Vader's big benefit, he makes naked ships good and fairly efficient damage wise; you just need to make sure to bring enough ships you're getting enough bang for the buck with Vader.

What have you guys discovered to be efficient? I haven't even delved into the most efficient defensive upgrades or looked at synergies involving accuracies or defense tokens. Or commands (do I want 2 more shields on my ISD, or do I want to throw another red die for +.75 EV?)...

So far, though, the game looks extremely well balanced. They were clearly crunching numbers when they were designing this, and it shows.

Because of that, the keys to the game seem more to be building a list that is designed to execute certain strategies well, and then executing those strategies on the table. Conversely, if you can force your opponent to use a list he designed to function one way a very different way, you have a good chance of winning.

"Also, interestingly, Enhanced Armament adds 2 black dice, so +2 EV on a Glad side arc."

Whoops, good catch there. That's what I get for trying to name upgrades from memory in a last minute change to the post even when they're not material to the point at hand. I meant expanded launchers and front arc.

The important point in that section, though, is that Screed is not adding much once OE is widely available. Against a reroll on the side or the front with EL, he adds .2 EV for the guarantee. So, he's not essential to ACM strategies, and you can take Motti instead.

But, my impromptu above is but a start: I want to learn from others here who have crunched the numbers. Also, if anyone has the full calls for LS done, I'd love to know as using generator functions to solve stat problems are beyond me for now.

This helps confirm my opinion - SW7 ion cannons are going to be a fantastic upgrade for the Empire. An ISD-II Avenger with SW7 (especially after another ship has overload pulsed) will be brutal.

Which comes back to why Screed is so good. He guarantees the other critical effects on blue/red dice as needed, even on a small pool of dice.

It would help to share your math. As is its hard to evaluate your conclusions.

Leading Shots is really good on the ISD-I: it's improves the base damage as much as Ordnance Experts would, but it improves the red dice too so you can hit harder at range. This combo seems to be one of the strongest offensively IMO. The downside is you can't take ECM on an ISD I...

I think the overall phrasing is a bit confusing on some points, I picked this one as an example. "At range" should read "at medium range" as you need to sacrifice a blue die to take advantage of leading shots. Similarly the ISD-I does not "hit harder" at range, except for close-range you are losing to the ISD-II. The only statement I would agree with is that leading shots can take over the spot of ordnance experts on the ISD-I somewhat, but that alone does not make a great upgrade.

I would also agree with Tranenturm that it would really help us if you could share your calculations..

Some good advice here. Thanks.

But please you need to share your math.

I'm glad to hear your conclusion that naked ships aren't as awesome in Armada as in Xwing. I think that makes the games different.

Also there are many ways of calculating for certain builds what combinations might be cost wise.

For example, let's say VGGG300 keeps working well in the form of VGGG + Vic2 400. You could calculate Screed's cost as shared between 5 ships. 26/5 = 5.2 points per.

Then Glad1 ACM Screed is = 56 + 7 + 5.2 = 68.2

Previous + Demolisher = 78.2

Also Screed gives more something that rerolls doesn't give you - a guarantee. 4 blacks, all rerolling has a high chance of getting a crit (~90%), but it is not a guarantee. When you're packing ACM's/APM's that guarantee is worth alot.

Plus the likes of front arcs of Glads, and raiders don't get 4 blacks. 2 blacks even with rerolls only get a crit ~68% of the time. 68% is a hell of a lot less than 100% :)

Ideally an upgrade is more efficient in a category than a base ship. This is because as you put on an offense related upgrade, you're diluting your defensive efficiency. Ships are often better buys because you get both more offense AND more hit points. I think this is the problem in X-wing. I haven't gone through all the Armada upgrades so it would be nice if they corrected for this.

I think Dodonna is well worth the points. Putting 4 damage cards on the table and going 'hmmmm....' while your opponent has to wait and see how you are going to screw him over is priceless. Better with XX-9 turbolasers. That 'and....' is even sweeter.

Edited by D503

And how are you mathematically comparing the SW7 to the NK ion cannon upgrade? One gives damage for accuracy, the other forces discarding of a defence token on a blue crit...

Depending on the target longevity, I would much prefer my opponent to drop down to two defence tokens, then one, as opposed to maybe 1-2 extra damage (after you spend one accuracy stopping. The brace).

Adding a call to see some of your maths and thought processes.

A few comparisons are very odd (as above, SW-7 and NK's do entirely different things...how are you calculating the increased damage in later turns removal of defence tokens causes?), and some assumptions and conclusions are a bit questionable (Leading shots helping "at range").

Not saying you are wrong, but you haven't given us anything to be able to say you are right either.

I will pull the data out of my excel file and format it in a way that can be digested here.

As for NK Ions, I didn't not calculate the value of losing the defensive token--sorry I wasn't clear on that. I was just focusing on increase in damage output only upgrades and seeing which ones were most efficient. I think the next step is to run the numbers taking defensive tokens into account, which will allow the valuing of cards like the NK Ions.

Actually, the more I think about it, I think the best next step is just valuing defensive tokens as a negative EV for different dice scenarios on the attack. Then, you can go one step further and value cards that influence defensive tokens.

Also, I agree Dodonna is awesome, and really hard to value in an EV way. However, you could select which crits you like the best and express how much he improves their chance of being drawn. Also, you could probably create an EV for many of the damage cards beyond Structural Damage, like the one where you lose all your shields for instance.

Edited by Demaratus

This helps confirm my opinion - SW7 ion cannons are going to be a fantastic upgrade for the Empire. An ISD-II Avenger with SW7 (especially after another ship has overload pulsed) will be brutal.

Which comes back to why Screed is so good. He guarantees the other critical effects on blue/red dice as needed, even on a small pool of dice.

I think SW-7 are really great, but what I found really exciting is how good Leading Shots is on an ISD-I. That upgrade and no other make the ISD-I much, much better for very little extra points.

And now that I have thought about it, leading shots is absolutely awesome with the Defiance title (add a dice of any colour if shooting at an already activated target).

So one thing that will add to the complexity of your calculations, is interaction between different cards.

May the force be with you!

This is a hard question given the number of variables, but I'd say Ackbar: with 8 ships, he adds 16 red dice each turn for 38 points.

That's 2.38 points per die.

Edited by JimmyMethod

I am not sure how I feel about this topic. . .

In truth almost every upgrade has its uses and there are no competition in the form of direct upgrades. What I mean is that while cards share upgrade slots each card has its merits.

I am not sure how I feel about this topic. . .

In truth almost every upgrade has its uses and there are no competition in the form of direct upgrades. What I mean is that while cards share upgrade slots each card has its merits.

that depends on how you define "merit"

imo, the most interesting facet of Armada that differentiates it heavily from X-wing miniatures is that ships react almost uniquely to each individual upgrade

for example, in X-wing a defensive upgrade such as c3po is always going to be more effective on one agility ships that can stack defensive modifications and be bloated with tons of points. Ergo, it's universally superior to every other upgrade on the Yt-1300 and is almost universally seen on only the Falcon.

but Armada? efficiency is so affected by your positioning that it's almost brutal. the differentiation of hull zones, ranges, navigation charts etc. makes it difficult to provide a universal assessment of "efficiency." For example: ISD, terrifying from the front; massive waste of points otherwise.

this gets even more complex as you introduce upgrades and upgrade combinations

For example, compare Leading Shots on an ISD to Leading Shots on a Raider-2

then compare Overload Pulse, especially with Skreed lurking around somewhere

plus there's things like Slaved Turrets on CR-90s/Nebs as opposed to Star Destroyers, etc.

mathematical comparison is fine and all, but we're going to need a giant Excel table to compare across all ships that can take said upgrade. So really, it's "mathematically, what are the best upgrades for each ship type" because Armada is too complex for straight answers :P

I am not sure how I feel about this topic. . .

In truth almost every upgrade has its uses and there are no competition in the form of direct upgrades. What I mean is that while cards share upgrade slots each card has its merits.

that depends on how you define "merit"

imo, the most interesting facet of Armada that differentiates it heavily from X-wing miniatures is that ships react almost uniquely to each individual upgrade

for example, in X-wing a defensive upgrade such as c3po is always going to be more effective on one agility ships that can stack defensive modifications and be bloated with tons of points. Ergo, it's universally superior to every other upgrade on the Yt-1300 and is almost universally seen on only the Falcon.

but Armada? efficiency is so affected by your positioning that it's almost brutal. the differentiation of hull zones, ranges, navigation charts etc. makes it difficult to provide a universal assessment of "efficiency." For example: ISD, terrifying from the front; massive waste of points otherwise.

this gets even more complex as you introduce upgrades and upgrade combinations

For example, compare Leading Shots on an ISD to Leading Shots on a Raider-2

then compare Overload Pulse, especially with Skreed lurking around somewhere

plus there's things like Slaved Turrets on CR-90s/Nebs as opposed to Star Destroyers, etc.

mathematical comparison is fine and all, but we're going to need a giant Excel table to compare across all ships that can take said upgrade. So really, it's "mathematically, what are the best upgrades for each ship type" because Armada is too complex for straight answers :P

Indeed. The exercise is more valuable than any "answers" that I might calculate. I can definitely attest that my ability to analyze at the table is vastly improved since I started this. If you know how to calculate in advance, then you can manage things better on the fly, and better understand what situations are favorable to the upgrades and ships you've chosen.

I do want to crunch some more numbers to understand things like in what situations would Tarkin be best? Or, is Ozzel ever useful over the other admirals?

Tarkin is simple.

Do you want to use tokens for an effect every turn?

Do you have more than 3 ships with multiple commands or if only 1 command, will use use that token every turn?

Tarkin with pocket carrier Raiders with Expanded Hanger Bay or Boosted Comms is indeed a thing I have seen no one bring up. Not sure why though. . .

The problem is, when we are dealing only with what is most efficient, not what is fun, is that people end up with lists like this:

Imperial 2, intel officer, X17 turbolasers, Ozzel (153 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbolasers (123 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbo lasers (123 points)

(399 points)

Battle plan: only ever issue navigate/repair tokens. Smash things. Laugh.

Even then, the raw mathematics does not account for all of the variables you get in a Wargame, anyway.

Especially when those variables are not accounted for.

The problem is, when we are dealing only with what is most efficient, not what is fun, is that people end up with lists like this:

Imperial 2, intel officer, X17 turbolasers, Ozzel (153 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbolasers (123 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbo lasers (123 points)

(399 points)

Battle plan: only ever issue navigate/repair tokens. Smash things. Laugh.

Why is that a problem?

The problem is, when we are dealing only with what is most efficient, not what is fun, is that people end up with lists like this:

Imperial 2, intel officer, X17 turbolasers, Ozzel (153 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbolasers (123 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbo lasers (123 points)

(399 points)

Battle plan: only ever issue navigate/repair tokens. Smash things. Laugh.

Why is that a problem?

No water that a list like this can cover the flanks properly so ships like the GSD, Raider, CR90 and MC30 will get in. The first and last of that list will deal the most damage in a short time.

Hmmmm it can work but while intimidating, Rhymerball's will have a field day

The problem is, when we are dealing only with what is most efficient, not what is fun, is that people end up with lists like this:

Imperial 2, intel officer, X17 turbolasers, Ozzel (153 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbolasers (123 points)

Imperial 1, intel officer, X17 turbo lasers (123 points)

(399 points)

Battle plan: only ever issue navigate/repair tokens. Smash things. Laugh.

Why is that a problem?
This seems easy enough to destroy in all honesty.

No water that a list like this can cover the flanks properly so ships like the GSD, Raider, CR90 and MC30 will get in. The first and last of that list will deal the most damage in a short time.

Hmmmm it can work but while intimidating, Rhymerball's will have a field day

A bomber heavy list that was able to keep its ships away from the ISDs would have a field day.