R(D₂-M₁) ≥ H1

R is the Rounds a ship will Survive before death

H₁ is its Health (Shields + Hull)x(Critical Vulnerability which needs its own breakdown).

D₂ is the Damage that the enemy will deal to you per round.

M₁ is Damage Mitigation, including attacks completely dodged.

All well and good, right?

Well, things get a bit more complicated.

U₁ = R(D₁-M₂)

U₁ is the damage your individual ship will deal over the course of a game.

D₁is the damage your individual ship will generate per round.

M₂ is the damage the opposing ships will mitigate.

Now, we'll be able to calculate how much damage an individual ship will truly be able to soak, and therefore how much damage it will be able to deal, over the course of an elimination game.

If R ≤ T, where T is the number of rounds you can fit in the Time Limit, then the ship is expected to die during the course of the game. If not, the ship is expected to ultimately survive.

Three of these variables are out of our hands: the damage your opponent deals, the damage your opponent will mitigate, and the rounds you can fit into the time limit.

In the absence of an opponent, the formulae predict that all of your ships survive past a time limit, which is what would indeed happen in that event.

Notably, you can use this to predict the survivability of Fleet vs Fleet interactions, or as the predictor for an individual ship.

I know that's in English, but after that I'm lost.

Gimme some dice. *pew pew*

I know that's in English, but after that I'm lost.

Gimme some dice. *pew pew*

Ah

These are some things that will help you math more gooder with your wings.

Also, a place where I can link explanations of those variables.

I... assume this is coming with further mathematics inbound shortly?

I mean, what you've got there is good, but I'm not really sure what it's for, just yet.

I suppose there is one more formula: U/C= W

where C is the cost of a ship/fleet, and W is the Use to Cost ratio (and is as high as possible).

...Yeah, I don't really have any more to add other than working out some examples.

I love how math wingers always tell you what is more likely to happen like its a constant. I look at potential. I guess that is why I am a fan of ordanance. I am the type of gamer who always took lightning over fire(like in Diablo 1-4 over 2-3). Once dice come into play math goes out the window and the dice gods take over.

I love how math wingers always tell you what is more likely to happen like its a constant. I look at potential. I guess that is why I am a fan of ordanance. I am the type of gamer who always took lightning over fire(like in Diablo 1-4 over 2-3). Once dice come into play math goes out the window and the dice gods take over.

I try not to include any actual constants, preferring to show the actual results of this as the odds of taking X damage, and stuff to that effect.

I dunno what all this math stuff is, but one time I rolled 5 green dice against 3 hits and all 5 defense dice turned up blank.

You should change your name to Charlie Epps!

What about the Critical Vulnerability variable? How is that determined? This could be very important in some builds. I can see this having a greater affect on high PS pilots like Fel, Tycho etc. than on lower PS generics. The same could be said of certain ship classes.

I like these formulas. They provide a nice metric to examine a squad build or an individual ship being kitted out especially the U/C ratio.

How do you determine Damage Mtigation for something as vague as arc dodging? Health and Dice are known variables but dodging is more of measurement of the player not the pilot. That would seem to me to be the least knowable or reliable variable in the equation. Of course you can always ignore that aspect and treat it as an unknown bonus.

The second formula has 1 ship vs more than 1 in determing U_1. Is this correct?

Nicely done!

I dunno what all this math stuff is, but one time I rolled 5 green dice against 3 hits and all 5 defense dice turned up blank.

for critical vulnerability I think (H-1)/((H+S)-1) which ignores the last hit is it is always lethal.

So a Scyk would have a vulnerability of 1/2, an E-wing would have a vulnerability of 1/4.

Constants and variables?

You're leaving out (I think) the fact that what something kills can no longer damage it back, so high offense leads to survivability. Check out Lanchester's square law.

I dunno what all this math stuff is, but one time I rolled 5 green dice against 3 hits and all 5 defense dice turned up blank.

This only happened to you ONCE?!?

You are the luckiest person ever.

You should change your name to Charlie Epps!

What about the Critical Vulnerability variable? How is that determined?

CV is determined by a few factors:

• How likely is it that the incoming damage will be Critical? (Determined by enemy's Crit-to-Hit ratio, and your own mitigation prowess)
• How likely is that incoming damage to hit your Hull? (Shields, DTF, Chewbacca, et c.)
• What percentage of the damage deck does your ship care about? (Leebo, Determination, et c.)

So, as we see here, a Blue Squadron Pilot has a very Low Critical Vulnerability, with a very small window for incoming critical damage to hit hull, a low crit-to-hit ratio due to low evasion, and does not particularly care about several of the Crits it could take.

Meanwhile Soontir Fel has a very High CV, at least with the old damage deck. Most of the cards drawn impact him severely, he has insanely high mitigation so the Crit-to-Hit ratio of suffered damage is very high, and every single crit suffered will go directly to hull.

I have yet to fully mathematize it, but the only pilot in-game with a "1" is Chewbacca, meaning that he gets full health value irrespective of crits. Most other builds have less, but Leebo + Determination may actually have more, due to the 41% chance to utterly discard incoming critical damage (given a blind deck), therefore possibly gaining more effective health than posted.

Everyone else has between 1 and 0.

You're leaving out (I think) the fact that what something kills can no longer damage it back, so high offense leads to survivability. Check out Lanchester's square law.

Once you've killed something, you have mitigated 100% of its possible damage, or lowered the amount of damage incoming. Variables.

You can predict the turn in which you kill something by using these formulae for its survival rate, measured against your kill-prioritization and how likely that ship is to arc-dodge you (or range-dodge, which is staying at R4+, where some ships still have a real impact on the game [Gloomshuttle, ST-321 Jendon, et c.]).

Constants and variables?

Just noticed what the sign actually said .

Meanwhile, it looks like you left your brush on the canvas when taking the screenshot, or something. Circle-thingy on her thumb.

How do you determine Damage Mtigation for something as vague as arc dodging? Health and Dice are known variables but dodging is more of measurement of the player not the pilot. That would seem to me to be the least knowable or reliable variable in the equation. Of course you can always ignore that aspect and treat it as an unknown bonus.

Mitigation of Arc-Dodging can be translated in real-time as "Mitigate 100% of damage that can't shoot me", but for an actual predictor, you'd have to rate the percentage of time that you, flying this ship, can outfly your opponent, flying that ship.

Needless to say, this is where Piloting Skill comes into play, and that's almost impossible to nail down, even in a match-up as one-sided as Fel vs Gloomshuttle.

I dunno what all this math stuff is, but one time I rolled 5 green dice against 3 hits and all 5 defense dice turned up blank.

(3/8)⁵, or 243 times out of 32,768 tries, or appx 1 out of 133 odds.

Unlucky, but not unheard of. About 00.74%, and still likelier than getting bitten by a shark.

Just noticed what the sign actually said .

Meanwhile, it looks like you left your brush on the canvas when taking the screenshot, or something. Circle-thingy on her thumb.

Yeah, that was on the original image, only noticed after uploading it. Never mind!

Also, I am sad that no-one got caught in the rickroll.

Chewbaxxa shouldn't be 1. Rexlar Brath and saboteur exist.

Chewbaxxa shouldn't be 1. Rexlar Brath and saboteur exist.

And are so rarely played that their ability should be a buff to themselves, rather than an adjustment to everyone else in the game.

I actually like Sabatour on a K-wing with Advanced Slam. You cannot attack, but I will always the a chance on flipping damage cards.

I don't think it really changes your point much but we do have some ability to modify M₂ (mitigation-mitigation) in R4-B11, Crackshot, Outmaneuver and Latts Razzi's ability, don't we?

Also, is there any one place I can go to gorge on mathwing posts?