I've had some thoughts bouncing around my head for a while about this game and I think it might be time to throw them out. This thread might also be called "THE 4-6 SHIP META". It's about how I think the game might go and how I find myself responding to a lot of threads.
The two ship meta is no longer going to be as prominent as it was. It will still be there and people will still win with it, but it wont' be the meta to beat for every game.
TLT's will be a thing...at least for a while. They will be a list to beat and you will have to consider fighting one.
High PS arc dodgers like Soontir Fel will also be a thing.
I think there will also be a lot of "things" that people will try out in the next few months. I think the meta is in a state of flux and I love it. So many things are viable.
I've seen a number of people post lists that have some cool ideas. It often puts them at about 3 or 4 ships in their list. Two that come to mind deals with Bossk and 2 TLT Y-wings and another deals with Kavil, TLT Y-wing, and 2 Kihraxz Fighters. I found myself thinking that I would probably drop one of the generics on each of those lists and go with 2 Z-95's. There was another list involving 3 Imperials and I kept thinking one of those could be dropped for a few generic Tie Fighters and it would be much improved.
Why is this? Well, for one, TLT's don't like more targets as much. While the generics have few hits, you can't focus them down easily enough. They might also move within R1 while you are firing on the big heavy in your list. If you are shooting at Bossk and you suddenly have these two Z-95's with TL firing at R1 of your Y-wings, you aren't going to like it.
Target Priority. When you see a list, you want to fire at the most dangerous thing. While you are doing that, the little crummy ships are getting in range and really doing damage. If you fire at the little ships, then the big nasty ships are bashing you while you do it. This is an area where I think Scyks do well. They don't like the attention, but they are very maneuverable and have TL. If ignored, they can get into R1 and stay within R1 if you play it smart. Even just Z's left unchecked can hurt. Tie Fighters at short range are good, especially when not getting shot at.
Bumpage is a thing. Having the ability to force your opponent to do something it normally wouldn't want to do or bump into one of your generics is a big thing in this game. Using your cheap generics as obstacles has been in the game since Wave 1. They can also screen your flanks and make it harder for one of those wily ships to come up on your flanks. No S-loop for Brobot if you hit your Z's. Or harder for Soontir to come in easy peasy if the way is blocked.
There is more to it than that, though. Overall strategies has some ships wanting to sit back and fire at you. This is much easier if you have the generics either blocking or mixing things up with your ships. If your opponent just hauls it towards whatever is your sniper, your generics will have a field day.
I've played a lot of mini-swarms and I like the style. I don't necessarily think that what I'm talking about is a mini-swarm. Not just one ace with as many generics as you can muster. I think a nice balance to things is good. What about an ace and maybe 1-2 more mid guys. Then, throw in the generics. It makes target priority hard and the extra stuff from your mid levels can perhaps boost your generics. Or mess with your opponent so much that your generics can slip in.
Maybe it's just how I play? I just feel like with how things are going that a list with 4-6 ships in it will probably do best. There are so many archetypes out there that you can't really build a list that handles all of them in the way that you could in the old meta. There were only 3 builds or so. I think I see so many options out there that you don't know what you will face. Having an "all comers" list that has some tricks seems like it will be the way to go. If you put too many of your eggs in one (or a few) baskets, then you have the possibility of folding if you meet a hard counter. What will Soontir or a Phantom say vs. Torkil with a bunch of Scum ships, including Mini-Swarms and TLT's?
I feel like a well balanced list played by a good player will have more tools to defeat "all eggs in few basket" lists.