What we've seen:

August 25th - Massing at Sullust announcement

September 2nd - ISD preview

September 9th - Home One preview

Predictions:

September 16th - Raider preview

September 23rd - MC30c preview

September 30th - Rogues and Villains preview

October 7th - Wave 2 releases? Maybe a shipping now article?

I know that Wave 2 stuffs are still listed as at the printer, but since we have been getting weekly announcements I feel like Wave 2 is going to get hear early in October as opposed to late.

No matter what, it's nice to see the stats on a few more cards. Both large ships are going to be great to have on the table.

I would not see the fact we are getting previews as a sign of when wave two arrives and more as they are previewing it all before the Massing at Sullust events weekend.

Predictions:

For the first three, maybe. But FFG doesn't have a set schedule that they do articles on, and a pattern of 2 cases isn't much of a pattern. Even then look at X-Wing.

We had 2 articles on the 4th, one on the 7th and one on the 8th, but no new ones yet on the 10th. So I wouldn't count on more articles on any sort of set schedule.

That said, there's no way possible you'll see Wave 2 that early. There's at least one Massing at Sullust I know the date for, and it's after the 7th.

My feeling is that we MIGHT see wave 2 drop before the end of October. A few posters have speculated that, that they might use the momentum of the 'Massing' event to push sales.

It makes sense to me but corporations, even smaller ones, are fickle.

I don't expect to see the them till the 3rd week of October. But I'm buying two ISD or maybe a ISD and Home one although the I'm not very impressed by home one.

Well. . . The last 2 articles are what. . . 7 days apart?

Yes.

You could go as far to argue that we've gotten Armada Previews every Wednesday (FFG Time) for the past 2 weeks.

Yes.

You could go as far to argue that we've gotten Armada Previews every Wednesday (FFG Time) for the past 2 weeks.

Their articles seem to be timed.

If you take all the X-Wing articles, you can clearly see there is no pattern to them. They don't come out on a given day of the week, or every X days, or anything at all.

What they will do, is make sure they get a preview article for everything, but they will not (at least in X-Wing) spoil everything. They always hold something back.

There may very well be another article next week, but that's just because they have one to publish. There is also no trace of a 'the last article comes out X days before release'. So even if they have everything previewed by the end of this month, that doesn't mean Wave 2 will be out a week later.

One thing I have found you can count on, is it being 8 or so weeks after something goes on the boat before it hits stores. So since we're already nearly done with the 2nd week of Sept...

That means even if it goes on the boat tomorrow, it's likely not until Nov 6th until we see them.

That's well and good for X-Wing and all... But We were just commenting on the (possible coincidence) that we've gotten 2 Wednesdays in a Row.

If the next one is Wednesday, does that still fit the pattern of no pattern, or is the pattern plain to see to those who like patterns?

I like sewing.

Pattern.

The US Navy Intelligence community uses a few different styles of information gathering to turn into intelligence, one of which is trend analysis. We look at how a country does things such as MARPATs, CAPs, etc in the past and we look for the times they were different. Then we look as to why they did something differently. That is how I am basing things for Armada's teasing releases.

We may very well get a preview a week for wave 2, but I don't see it releasing at the end of that trend. They have probably had these articles squared away for a while with all the production and shipping delays the game has seen. I think they're just trying to build up some of the steam they've lost due to these delays. Either way, I'm excited for wave 2.

Predictions:

For the first three, maybe. But FFG doesn't have a set schedule that they do articles on, and a pattern of 2 cases isn't much of a pattern. Even then look at X-Wing.

We had 2 articles on the 4th, one on the 7th and one on the 8th, but no new ones yet on the 10th. So I wouldn't count on more articles on any sort of set schedule.

That said, there's no way possible you'll see Wave 2 that early. There's at least one Massing at Sullust I know the date for, and it's after the 7th.

You spoke too quickly

https://www.fantasyflightgames.com/en/news/2015/9/10/fight-a-bigger-battle/

I'm still hopeful for a last week of October/first week of November availability window. But either they'll have to be purposely withholding info on the shipments or you'll see an update on shipping status within a week or two tops.

I'm in no rush. I want to play with them, but I'm very content with the product as it stands today. I still have fighters to paint.

One thing FFG has shown is that they don't like to preview things way before they come out. The fact we are getting a pre-release and previews means the Wave is coming sooner rather than later.

The last X-Wing Wave to have a pre-release had ships on store shelves less than 3 weeks after the event. I expect a similar 2-4 week window here, which means they will be going on the boat in the next week or so. However, if it doesn't go on the boat until later, expect it 6 weeks after it does.

The timing is just too perfect. 1 preview a week to lead directly into the Massing at Sullust events.

I would not see the fact we are getting previews as a sign of when wave two arrives and more as they are previewing it all before the Massing at Sullust events weekend.

This.

Previews after something is completely spoiled are not very interesting.

They are likely shipping out Massing at Sullust kits shortly, and they are not ignorant that doing so will result in spoilers. So either they do it themselves or it gets done for them.

it could be pushed all the way to nov or december. knowing FFG. I would not be surprised at huge delays all the way until dec 01.

Way back for wave 2 of X-wing I won a Millenium Falcon at the event and it was a few months before they were generally released.

I'll throw in my guess. I figure it'll be about two weeks after the Massing at Sullust event. So that will be about the 3rd week in October. Personally I have been busy with a Massing at PayPal so that I am ready. I'll make a group order with a couple of friends and expect us to drop, as a group, about $400 on our pre-order. Personally I want 2 IDS, 2 MC80, 3 Raiders, 3 MC30, and 1 Rouges & Villians squadron pack. That ought to hold me for a week or two. Of course since I am the local organizer of the Massing at Sullust event I fully expect to get the Squadron pack as my bonus.

Way back for wave 2 of X-wing I won a Millenium Falcon at the event and it was a few months before they were generally released.

That was a special case.

The pre-release was a special print run. Between printing that and printing the actual release, they realized the game was way bigger than they expected and they needed to reprint Wave 1. Additionally, they had to print more of Wave 2 than they initially planned.

In this case, just like the X-Wing Wave IV pre-release, they are making the pre-release kits from the same print run as the rest of the products, and they have a better handle on the demand.

My point was that the Prerelease event is not a guarantee of anything. And considering they originally planned Wave 2 for July according to their own announcements things aren't going as planned for a variety of reasons. This isn't a criticism but an observation. Because things aren't going to plan combined with no shipping update leads me to believe that the event and general release won't be near each other.

That was a special case.

Not really. Wave 5 was for sale at Gencon, but wasn't released until Thanksgiving that year, nearly 4 months latter. That said, I fully expect to see Wave 2 sometime in late Oct early Nov, which would make it 2-3 weeks after the events wrap up.

My point was that the Prerelease event is not a guarantee of anything.

Agreed, the only thing you can really count on with FFG is it taking about 8 weeks after something goes on the boat to get to us.

That was a special case.

Not really. Wave 5 was for sale at Gencon, but wasn't released until Thanksgiving that year, nearly 4 months latter. That said, I fully expect to see Wave 2 sometime in late Oct early Nov, which would make it 2-3 weeks after the events wrap up.

Looking at X-Wing Wave 5 is comparing apples to oranges. A) They push harder to have stuff at GenCon if they are going to debut it there, and GenCon has a set date. They can schedule their pre-release weekend whenever they want. B) Wave 5 had QA problems that likely extended the amount of time it was at the printer. Something was up with their manufacturing plants and it shows in the products.

Also, 8 weeks is a conservative estimate. Things frequently spend less time on the boat. It isn't out if the realm of possibility though.

Things frequently spend less time on the boat.

The 8 weeks includes on the boat and the typical week they spend shipping from FFG to distributors. I can say that after 3 years, 7 waves, 2 Aces and 3 Epic ships, that 8 weeks is pretty typical for FFG.