Cluster Mine Probabilities

By Admiral Deathrain, in X-Wing

Someone probably already calculated these a long time ago, but how do they (in the ideal hit fat Han in the face scenario) compare statisticaly to Proximity Mines? A quick Google search didn't come up with anything, would be nice to know.

Each red die is 3/8 of a chance for Cluster. Proximity is 4/8 chance of a hit. If I were better at math, I'd extrapolate that, but I'm terrible and it makes my head hurt.

Expected value of damage is 3/8+3/8 (or .75 damage per mine)
Actual probability is 9/64 for two damage, 25/64 for none and 30/64 for one.

Edited by PewPewPew

Someone probably already calculated these a long time ago, but how do they (in the ideal hit fat Han in the face scenario) compare statisticaly to Proximity Mines? A quick Google search didn't come up with anything, would be nice to know.

Each individual cluster mine does half the damage of a proximity mine, on average (and with no chance to crit). The set of cluster mines do 150% of the damage of a proximity mine, again on average.

I really really liked them cluster mines until I saw they didn't trigger on a crit. That keeps them out of play for me. Proximity mines still fill my tubes (and Connor nets). If they could be deployed a little differently (cut outs should have been on the outer mines instead of on the inner) and could do a better guarantee of all 3 landing in front of or on big ships I might use them more but it just doesn't work as well and costs more.

I'm just waiting to see if the meta will need him to have connors and EI. With those extra 4pts I can do a lot (downgrading the connors to prox).

Deathrain + Prox x2 + extra munitions + MkII

Inquisitor + PTL + autothrusters

2x New Ties

99pts

Still works if I need Connors and MKII opens dial a little, but the dial was ok unless you needed stress to clear EI so autothrusters might be better anyway for approach.

Edited by Rakky Wistol

Cluster Mines: Base of 3/8, total of 6 dice.

0.28% of 6 damage

2.78% of 5 damage

11.59% of 4 damage

25.75% of 3 damage

32.19% of 2 damage

21.46% of 1 damage

5.96% of 0 damage

Proximity Mines: Base of 1/2, total of 3 dice

12.50% of 3 damage

37.50% of 2 damage

37.50% of 1 damage

12.50% of 0 damage

TLDR: Cluster Mines have better than a 40% chance of dealing 3 or more damage, if you land all 3 mines over the course of the game, which is the maximum damage of Prox Mines.

never trust red dice that roll like green dice <_<

save yourself the worry, use conners instead :)

Well that looks not bad, thanks everyone. As for using Conners instead...nothing stops me from using both, doesn't it?

You can use both. Most people seem to be using Conners + Prox as far as I've seen.

Clusters are a counter to the high-agility high-mobility ships (like Fel and Whisper).
They say "If you go here, you take non-mitigatable damage".

Since both pay over 10 points per health point, even a small risk of damage they can't block cuts them down swiftly.

Clusters are also moderately useful vs the large ships. Health damage doesn't matter as much to them, but remembering that this is damage that is additional to your attack step...

I love unavoidable damage. I wish I could fit Deathrain, Doom Shuttle, and 2 bombers with Prox mines and extra munitions in 1 list. I don't care what your agility is... you're eating damage while you try to take down those 31hp. It's a fun casual list even with one bomber with a single seismic instead.

I wish Kir had an EPT so he could be yet another "unavoidable damage" option.

Edited by Rakky Wistol

remember, conners are not just for low-health high agility

conners are for everything

if it don't have sensors, it's not getting its action

either base size gets ionized, potentially forcing it out of the game for a few crucial turns

best of all no dice

it's the most flexible, most impressive mine by a long shot :)

I just went to the loopy lengths of buying a couple of conners sold separately. I play imperial and scum, and I really can't bring myself to buy that rebel albatross :/

i asked that in another thread maybe i´ll get an answer here:

well then i think its my turn. i don´t know whether anyone tried this with deathrain but at vassal this 3 bank movement after deploying a bomb with deathrain seems to work http://imgur.com/O63kOIH

however i just tried it for real and, beside the fact that the guides in the mine token are a little wider than the 1-straight template and you can move them slightly left and right, in practice this manouver seems not to work at all. its just barely overlapping it but they overlap.

anyone else tried this?

never trust red dice that roll like green dice <_<

save yourself the worry, use conners instead :)

But, as the opponent, are you still willing to risk the damage? The Cluster Mine area is enough to greatly send ships off in different directions. That alone is worth it.

never trust red dice that roll like green dice <_<

save yourself the worry, use conners instead :)

But, as the opponent, are you still willing to risk the damage? The Cluster Mine area is enough to greatly send ships off in different directions. That alone is worth it.

Particularly in conjunction with Asteroids

And have you seen the new ones? I am calling one of them The Big One after the SWCCG card!!

If the Bombardier crew had offered rerolls on bombs, I might have used her, even at a higher price tag.

never trust red dice that roll like green dice <_<

save yourself the worry, use conners instead :)

But, as the opponent, are you still willing to risk the damage? The Cluster Mine area is enough to greatly send ships off in different directions. That alone is worth it.

cluster has a huge area as well, and the effects are reliably more devastating especially if they park some poor fool on a rock

I'd probably sooner fly through clusters than conners

The larger area of Clusters is definitly helpfull for catching slippery Phantoms, though. More room for some misjudgement of the decloak.

never trust red dice that roll like green dice <_<

save yourself the worry, use conners instead :)

But, as the opponent, are you still willing to risk the damage? The Cluster Mine area is enough to greatly send ships off in different directions. That alone is worth it.

cluster has a huge area as well, and the effects are reliably more devastating especially if they park some poor fool on a rock

I'd probably sooner fly through clusters than conners

The question isn't which one you would rather run over. It's how much are you willing to gamble to run over a Cluster Mine grouping. As someone who decries dice, I wouldn't think of you as a gambling man.

of course not

that's why I use conners so enemies dont run over my clusters and take 0 damage :)