Proton torpedoes - probability - reroll eyes?

By IG88E, in X-Wing

Because of new (mathematical) situations caused by "Redline": There was a debate yesterday after following situation: I fired my proton torpedoes and had a second target lock (Redline can have two target locks), and I rolled hit, hit, eye, blank. Would you reroll the eye result too with your second target lock? (Note: You can turn one eye result into a crit at the end of the roll)

I was wondering what the probabilities could be for the proton torpedoes? Is there any mathematical table for this?

Proton-torpedoes.png

Edited by IG88E

This has been asked before regarding the Rear Admiral before. I believe the breakdown came to if you have 3 blanks 1 eye, reroll all 4, but at 2 blanks 1 eye you're better off just rerolling the blanks.

No, I would not. However, If I rolled hit, eye, eye, blank, I WOULD reroll the blank and ONE of the eyes but not both.

If you have an autoconversion, don't risk losing it.

Never re-role a certain thing!

Because of new (mathematical) situations caused by "Redline": There was a debate yesterday after following situation: I fired my proton torpedoes and had a second target lock (Redline can have two target locks), and I rolled hit, hit, eye, blank. Would you reroll the eye result too with your second target lock? (Note: You can turn one eye result into a crit at the end of the roll)

I was wondering what the probabilities could be for the proton torpedoes? Is there any mathematical table for this?

Proton-torpedoes.png

Oddly I wonder if Redline isn't the least efficient option of the above unless you're just running him as the only imperial ship with ordnance, but that's probably another discussion.

Edited by AlexW

For me, it depends on my odds of pushing the critical through, and if it's a situation where crits will matter.

If you reroll the one blank, you have a 50% chance getting 4 hits (38% at a hit, 13% at a crit)

If you reroll both the eye and blank, you have:

50% at 2 hits

-14% 2 [hit]

-8% 2 [crit]

-28% 1 [hit] 1 [crit]

43.75% at 1

-19% 1 [hit]

-25% 1 [crit]

6.25% at 0

-edit-

Numbers were brute forced. Only 2 dice, so only 64 combinations

Edited by treybert

With good/good/eye/blank and the ability to convert an eye to a good result you could look at it as if you already have 3 good results and thus have a 50% chance of ending up with 4 after the reroll. If you reroll both you end up with:

50% good leading to 75% good 25% miss: 2 hits @ 37.5% + 1 hit @ 12.5%

25% eye leading 50% good, 25% eye, 25% miss: 2 hits @ 12.5% + 1 hit @ 12.5%

25% miss leading to 50% good, 25% eye, 25% miss: 1 hit @ 18.75% + no hits at 6.25%

Average # hits after rerolling 2: = 1.4375 (2 @ 50%, 1 @ 43.75%, 0 @ 6.25%) which is lower than the 1.5 average you get just rerolling 1 die. Note that I'm treading [boom] and [kaboom] as equally good results although the [kaboom] is slightly more advantageous. Rerolling 2 dice introduces the chance at getting no damage from the reroll which lowers the average although there would be a slight chance (1/64) chance to get two [kabooms].

EDIT: My figures are only looking at the rolls and were assuming the [eye] gets converted into a [boom] instead of the [kaboom] when looking at the chance for criticals.

Edited by StevenO

I wouldn't reroll an eyeball until the expected value of rolling a eyeball reached one. (So, four dice.)