Jonus brothers: Captain Jonus, 2x Onyx Sq. Pilots+HLC.

I'd rather do 4 x Gamma Squadron Tie Bombers w/ Homing Missiles and Extra Munitions. Move in range and kill at least one ship a turn.

by the law of averages, TLT should **** on anything short of a phantom

dice scoff at averages, though, so it's not as overpowering as you might think

having played a silly TLT list (2 Ks, 1 Y ) I can say a few things

1. actionless 3-agility (connered poor vader ) gets wrecked

2. straight jousters (experience versus z-95s) will ruin your ****. You have an "advantage" at range 3, but said advantage is 2 bloody green dice (ergo, not really an advantage)

3. whisper doesn't give as much of a ****. Managed to rip off 2 shields, but between 4-dice both red and green she will win any exchange barring horrid luck.

4. auto-thrusters will **** you; aggressors especially with 8 health to chew through

5. TLT miranda w/c3po makes me feel unclean inside

I still like AGI 3 a lot against TLTs. 3 dice unmodified have a high chance of getting 1 hit through against AGI 0 or 1. You don't make them pay for not having actions to mod both of their attacks. Additionally, if your greens go cold for a roll, you still only take a single damage.

Considering likely PS of massed TLTs, Sabers/Royal Guards with PTL and Autothrusters look strong. Obsidian swarm would be good, too.

3 vs 3 = 46% of hitting. Which means you have a 21% of 2 damage, and a 50% of 1 damage, and a 29% of 0 damage. Again, this is without AT, but your claim of liking high agility ships should be independent of auto thrusters. The ships with 3 agility (TIE fighter, TIE Advanced, TIE interceptor, TIE defender, Scyk, Star Viper, Aggressor, A Wing, and E Wing) typically have 4 or less health. The exceptions being the Advanced, E wing, Defender, Star Viper, and Aggressor. And of those ships, all except the Aggressor (and Corran) are deemed over costed. Given once the Advanced gets the fix, that'll no longer be the case for that ship.

But it still comes down to naked dice vs. naked dice you're likely to be taking on average .92 damage from each ship you're in arc. And that's 25-33% of your health. So, in the time that you attack one of these ships twice, two of them have attacked you twice (er, twice two times) and killed you off. Which means you've thrown at most 8 dice, more likely 6 at a 8 health ship. So potentially you've killed it, more likely you've only wounded it. Now clearly the rest of your squad is involved in the fight as well, so there's that aspect to look at. But that point I'm trying to make is low health ships are at a great risk against TLTs, and high agility is almost always coupled with low health.

Honestly I think one of the AC/DC variants would do wonders vs. a TLT swarm. Good chance of dodging (some) damage with evade every turn, tanky, equal or better damage output against the low agility ywings.

I got a very good inkling that flying into a tie swarm is basically auto-loss

fighters are prone to critical green dice failure, but in this case that's only one damage instead of one-shot. And you need at least two TLTs to take one out...and there are at least 7 of them.

TLT really is a focus fire anti-elite ship weapon

Jonus brothers: Captain Jonus, 2x Onyx Sq. Pilots+HLC.

Ooh, Defenders are an interesting thought. They can dodge most of the TLT dice, and even if they have a bad round they're not going to crumple. And they're not great at range control in general, but they're fast enough to jump a TLT list before it can really get much use out of the turrets, making it a constant scramble for the TLTs to get out of Range 1.

Another thought, is the following:

3 x Tansari Point Vetren + Heavy Sycke + HLC, Tansari Point + Heavy Sycke + Fletchett Cannon

It'll pop a lot, but should put some heavy damage on the opposition, the Fletchett Cannon to provide stress when necessary.

Oohhh you really don't want low health + elite. Low health with a swarm is fine and dandy, but you can't really trust 3 dice (no range bonus) to hold against 3 reds if the ship is worth a dann

Again, with a **** tie it's not a problem (you get spares; they'll shred 1 agi at any range). With a cannon scyk it's just asking for trouble.

There's always xizor though. He don't give a ****

The TIE Swarm would be my tool if taking on HWKs with turrets too.

2 firepower max vs native 3 agi, and if you get in close then you hold all the cards. With a swarm you are all but guaranteed to get in close. This, coupled with a terrible dial on the HWK should make it one sided.

Of course, one still has to consider besides TLT can whatever list stand up to the other things in the meta. I think TLT is going to be prevelant so as we build lists for Wave 7 and beyond, we'll have to take it into consideration. I do agree some sort of swarm is going to be the best counter, tie them up in a range 1 furball. I'm just fond of bombers so they are my go to counter as they typically have enough hull to withstand the first on slaught.

I still like AGI 3 a lot against TLTs. 3 dice unmodified have a high chance of getting 1 hit through against AGI 0 or 1. You don't make them pay for not having actions to mod both of their attacks. Additionally, if your greens go cold for a roll, you still only take a single damage.

Considering likely PS of massed TLTs, Sabers/Royal Guards with PTL and Autothrusters look strong. Obsidian swarm would be good, too.

3 vs 3 = 46% of hitting. Which means you have a 21% of 2 damage, and a 50% of 1 damage, and a 29% of 0 damage. Again, this is without AT, but your claim of liking high agility ships should be independent of auto thrusters. The ships with 3 agility (TIE fighter, TIE Advanced, TIE interceptor, TIE defender, Scyk, Star Viper, Aggressor, A Wing, and E Wing) typically have 4 or less health. The exceptions being the Advanced, E wing, Defender, Star Viper, and Aggressor. And of those ships, all except the Aggressor (and Corran) are deemed over costed. Given once the Advanced gets the fix, that'll no longer be the case for that ship.

But it still comes down to naked dice vs. naked dice you're likely to be taking on average .92 damage from each ship you're in arc. And that's 25-33% of your health. So, in the time that you attack one of these ships twice, two of them have attacked you twice (er, twice two times) and killed you off. Which means you've thrown at most 8 dice, more likely 6 at a 8 health ship. So potentially you've killed it, more likely you've only wounded it. Now clearly the rest of your squad is involved in the fight as well, so there's that aspect to look at. But that point I'm trying to make is low health ships are at a great risk against TLTs, and high agility is almost always coupled with low health.

I guess for AGI 3 I'm thinking TIEs Interceptors with Autothrusters and the moves to get into the range 1 hole, and Advanced. I think any of those will cause problems. Obsidian swarm vs TLT swarm probably has the PS advantage, which means there's a real chance one of the TLT carriers doesn't ever get a chance to shoot. Even if it does, after the Obs swarm fires in Round 3, there's probably 2 TLTs gone, and there's 2-3 TIEs gone. That's a real good exchange. Tempests will have actions and HP to take a lot of TLT fire, and Interceptors can thread some needles and get Autothrusters. A-wings fit into this paradigm as well.

I don't actually think tlt spam will be all that prevalent.

It's a **** fine upgrade, but it ain't a PWT. The ships that it's on can't mov ***** (maybe miri) and they're not exactly known for their maneuverability

Could be fun against fattie + dodgy specifically but certain archetypes (brobots) really won't give a ****

I honestly expect conner to make more waves than TLT. That thing is an elite ship mulcher.

I see it more enabling certain named pilots (miri, Horton, rebel hwks) than as its own archetype

There's always xizor though. He don't give a ****

On the contrary, he hates TLTs since he passes off uncancelled results, not damage.

There's always xizor though. He don't give a ****

On the contrary, he hates TLTs since he passes off uncancelled results, not damage.

ah true, good catch

oh well. Dude's got thrusters

But that point I'm trying to make is low health ships are at a great risk against TLTs, and high agility is almost always coupled with low health.

Whenever high agility is coupled with low health, the ships are almost always cheap (TIES, Interceptors, A-wing, Scyk...). This allows them to be flown in larger quantities, negating the importance of losing a single ship.

I agree that an individual low health / high agility ship is a great risk against TLTs, but a squadron of them could do quite well.

Seems to me that they are similar to the Dash 58 donut, just a swarm of mini donuts. You trade Dash's mobility for more of them. You could probably boost into range one to bust up the swarm, and then dance about picking them 1 by 1.

16 hp is a lot of lasering to go through.

16 hp is a lot of lasering to go through.

about three rounds from 3/4 TLTs

arc-dodging would help with the dumb PWT wasn't getting a taste of its own medicine

But that point I'm trying to make is low health ships are at a great risk against TLTs, and high agility is almost always coupled with low health.

Whenever high agility is coupled with low health, the ships are almost always cheap (TIES, Interceptors, A-wing, Scyk...). This allows them to be flown in larger quantities, negating the importance of losing a single ship.

I agree that an individual low health / high agility ship is a great risk against TLTs, but a squadron of them could do quite well.

He's referring to the aces of the bunch like Soontir/Vader/Horn/Whisper etc who can easily take up 33% or more of your list and to the fact that ships with 3 agility only survive when attacks on them are limited. It's very hard to penetrate a range 3 soontir with evade and focus, but it's far easier to against a range 3 soontir with no tokens. TLT's turn a 4 ship list into 8, and that 1 damage is still 33% of soontir's health

16 hp is a lot of lasering to go through.

about three rounds from 3/4 TLTs

arc-dodging would help with the dumb PWT wasn't getting a taste of its own medicine

I think what TLT really does is open up way more variety of list especially in scum. Every Tom **** and Harry will have to get off the aggressor crutch. Yep they on paper are strong against TLT but scum has Kavil and as well as latts either of those really start to help get the damage through the IG both have good health and you still have points for a third ship, hell a z or scyk can get damage though agility 2. And are we all forgetting R3A2 stress still means no k turn or sloop , can also mean no actions , a y wing with TLT don't need to k turn now to keep up the pressure either even more fun if they are Horton as now he gets his pilot ability kicking in without even trying oh and wait would you really want to say sloop onto say a corner net ?

No 4 y wings with TLT my not be hot against aggressors but combinations with them will be. Also don't the r1 donut hole kinda pairs well with the r1 limit of the blaster turret? Jump from one frying pans into the fire?

Oh the fun to be had now the meta will truly be shook up

you forgot about conner's

I still like AGI 3 a lot against TLTs. 3 dice unmodified have a high chance of getting 1 hit through against AGI 0 or 1. You don't make them pay for not having actions to mod both of their attacks. Additionally, if your greens go cold for a roll, you still only take a single damage.

Considering likely PS of massed TLTs, Sabers/Royal Guards with PTL and Autothrusters look strong. Obsidian swarm would be good, too.

3 vs 3 = 46% of hitting. Which means you have a 21% of 2 damage, and a 50% of 1 damage, and a 29% of 0 damage. Again, this is without AT, but your claim of liking high agility ships should be independent of auto thrusters.

This post is a snippet of what will probably eventually become a MathWing post just on TLT, complete with pretty pictures.

For a TLT shot, the damage is capped at 1 and you get 2 shots, so the numbers get more complicated. To get the correct answer, you need to consider:

1. The probability that the attacker will spend focus token on the attack (affects 2nd attack)
2. Remember that the attacker doesn't need to spend focus if he naturally rolls more hits than the defender can evade (since damage is capped at 1)
3. The probability that the defender will spend focus on defense in response
4. Remember that the defender won't spend focus if damage is capped at 1 and spending focus would still only bring it down to 2 hits.

So, that all being said...

TLT + 2 focus tokens vs 3AGI + 2 focus tokens (the simple 2x version of the above 54% chance to hit) is:

0.2918 0.4968 0.2114 --> 0.9196 average damage

That's the easy case, and you can calculate it manually from the 54% number. Now for something more complicated:

TLT + 2 focus tokens vs 3AGI + 1 focus token

0.2229 0.5112 0.2659 --> 1.0430 average damage

Now lets make it 1 focus for each:

TLT + 1 focus token vs 3AGI + 1 focus token

0.2902 0.5163 0.1936 --> 0.9034 average damage

If the target is a 12 point TIE Fighter, then that's an average of 3.61 squad points of damage

What if the TIE has no focus?

TLT + 1 focus token vs 3AGI + 0 focus token

0.1092 0.4850 0.4058 --> 1.2967 average damage

If the target is a 12 point TIE Fighter, then that's an average of 5.1867 squad points of damage

Now lets add Autothrusters and put the focus token back on defense:

0.6911 0.2857 0.0232 --> 0.3322 average damage

If I have a 50 point IG88, then that's worth an average of 2 squad cost worth of damage

Now lets remove the focus token on defense but keep autothrusters on. Example: IG88B has already shot his HLC and spent his focus token on offense, and is now taking return fire back.

0.3494 0.5075 0.1431 --> 0.7937 average damage

@50 points for 8HP, that's now 5 squad cost worth of average damage

Now how about vs some other targets? Lets try a Z-95 with focus.

TLT + 1 focus token vs 2AGI + 1 focus token:

0.1063 0.4908 0.4029 --> 1.2967 average damage

For a 12-point 4HP ship, that's 4 squad cost worth of average damage

Now say the Z-95 has no focus token:

TLT + 1 focus token vs 2AGI + 0 focus token:

0.0409 0.3814 0.5776 --> 1.5367 average damage

4.6 squad cost of damage

Now how about a Decimator?

TLT + 1 focus token vs 0AGI:

0.0002 0.0427 0.9570 --> 1.9568 average damage

For a 40-point basic Patrol Leader, that is 4.8920 squad cost of damage

For a 64-point Fat VT-49, that is 7.8271 squad cost of damage

So, the biggest loser to TLT is a Fat Rear Admiral, taking almost 8 squad cost worth of damage (64/16*2=8) from the TLT. The IG88 with authothrusters and a focus token remaining, by comparison, takes the least amount at only 2 squad cost per TLT barrage, although this more than doubles to 5 squad cost if the focus token has already been spent. In general high AGI ships need to have focus on defense to get maximum damage mitigation vs TLT.

Thanks MJ, this is what "guess math" told me, it's nice to know it's backed up.

Have you guys ran or ran against 4 TLT's yet? I've done both and dear god it is mean. If you are only theorycrafting right now then get out there and fly em or against them. If you guys hated PWT's then just wait. I'm calling it right now Gencon 2016 will be won by 4 y-wings with TLT