Anyone who has been with the X-Wing game from the beginning, as have I, knows full well that the projected FFG delivery dates of X-Wing products often is a ... well ... trip down fantasy lane ...

This is especially true given what has occurred over the past few years ...

While I am fascinated with all of the announcements from GenCon, I can't help but laugh out loud at the following:

Imperial Assault Carrier Expansion Delivery Date: Q4 2015

Wave 8 Expansions Delivery Date: Q4 2015

Seriously. Really.

I think we have left the land of fantasy and moved fully into delusion.

At the moment, I'm inclined to believe them.

I will say, that Wave 8 is likely early 2016, but even Peterson and the slide said that. Is it wrong for them to list an optimistic date?

I suspect the "mystery" product is what has caused delays this year.

I don't want wave 8 to come out this year, still trying to figure out where to get the money for wave 7 and the raider

the mystery product is "Armada" sucking up X-wing resources and production!!

They actually mentioned in the presentation that could be early next year, so at least someone is being realistic.

They actually mentioned in the presentation that could be early next year, so at least someone is being realistic.

Whoever that individual is should be promoted !!!

Opened this thread totally expecting something else entirely with that subject line.

I think their dates are best-case-scenario type, and after the announcement something likely goes wrong.

I think their dates are best-case-scenario type, and after the announcement something likely goes wrong.

I could accept this once ... maybe even twice under extraordinary circumstances ...

But each and every time they announce a new product? I think not.

I would rather they just don't provide a date, or better, leverage the knowledge and history that they have over the past few years, and provide something far more accurate, such as Q2 2016.

Even if the Imperial Assault Carrier and Wave 8 got on the boat today, we wouldn't get it by the end of 2015 - not if the past few years is any indicator. And they aren't even close to doing that.

It has hardly been each and every time.

the mystery product is "Armada" sucking up X-wing resources and production!!

What with Episode VII, and a whole bunch of no-spoilers contracts in place until the biggest X-wing media blockbuster event in over a decade...

Yes, Armada's totally the most likely culprit.

Even if the Imperial Assault Carrier and Wave 8 got on the boat today, we wouldn't get it by the end of 2015 - not if the past few years is any indicator. And they aren't even close to doing that.

There were industry-wide shipping problems last year. Those are gone. Track the dates for wave 7 and Raider. They said 2-3 weeks until we have those.

It has hardly been each and every time.

I have been wrong before, but ...

For each and every single wave that has been released since the initial starter box, I have all of the announcement dates, the promised dates/quarters within those announcements, and the specific date that the product actually was available for purchase. So ... let's go to the tape ...

Wave Announced Date Promised Date Released Date

1 4/17/2012 Q3 2012 9/14/2012

2 9/14/2012 Q4 2012 2/28/2013

3 5/4/2013 Q3 2013 9/12/2013

Imp Aces 9/16/2013 Q4 2013 3/14/2014

GR75 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 4/30/2014

CR90 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 5/22/2014

4 2/7/2014 Q2 2014 6/26/2014

Reb Aces 3/18/2014 Q3 2014 9/25/2014

5 6/13/2014 Q3 2014 11/26/2014

6 8/15/2014 Q4 2014 2/26/2015

Raider 12/19/2014 Q1 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

7 4/20/2015 Q2 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

Carrier 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

8 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

So, from Wave 1 through Wave 7, we have 12 product release dates. Of the 12, 3 of them were released "on-time". That is a 25% success rate. Of the failures, they have ranged from 2 to 8 months late, with the Raider and Wave 7 still not available.

Note also that my original comment was that their prognostication was getting worse over time, especially over the past few years. The data shows that to be accurate.

While you are correct that "each and every" is definitely an overstatement, the reality is far closer to my side than what your statement is implying.

the mystery product is "Armada" sucking up X-wing resources and production!!

Is Armada not doing that well? How come there were no reveals for Armada at GenCon?

So FFG is guilty of wishful thinking and terrible planning, we know it and still we love them for it. We all keep buying the new ships as they're available. And if they happen to be delayed, we get more spoilers or the next wave announcement to help tide us over until we get our plastic crack in hand.

Does it ultimately matter when our new toys arrive so long as they do?

Edit: First World Problems lol

It has hardly been each and every time.

I have been wrong before, but ...

For each and every single wave that has been released since the initial starter box, I have all of the announcement dates, the promised dates/quarters within those announcements, and the specific date that the product actually was available for purchase. So ... let's go to the tape ...

Wave Announced Date Promised Date Released Date

1 4/17/2012 Q3 2012 9/14/2012

2 9/14/2012 Q4 2012 2/28/2013

3 5/4/2013 Q3 2013 9/12/2013

Imp Aces 9/16/2013 Q4 2013 3/14/2014

GR75 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 4/30/2014

CR90 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 5/22/2014

4 2/7/2014 Q2 2014 6/26/2014

Reb Aces 3/18/2014 Q3 2014 9/25/2014

5 6/13/2014 Q3 2014 11/26/2014

6 8/15/2014 Q4 2014 2/26/2015

Raider 12/19/2014 Q1 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

7 4/20/2015 Q2 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

Carrier 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

8 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

So, from Wave 1 through Wave 7, we have 12 product release dates. Of the 12, 3 of them were released "on-time". That is a 25% success rate. Of the failures, they have ranged from 2 to 8 months late, with the Raider and Wave 7 still not available.

Note also that my original comment was that their prognostication was getting worse over time, especially over the past few years. The data shows that to be accurate.

While you are correct that "each and every" is definitely an overstatement, the reality is far closer to my side than what your statement is implying.

Really, I count 4 released in the time frame. Wave 1, 3, 4, and Rebel Aces. And I'm not sure where you got those promises for the Rebel Epics, but even at Gencon, they said that they were showing the ships early. And they did get them out pretty darn quick. Rebel Aces were probably a little later than intended, sure, but again, extenuating circumstances. I think holding most of last year's releases against them is ignoring the broader issues of the dock strikes.

Again, I'm not expecting Wave 8 this year, but even FFG were realistically expecting early next year. The overexageration of the delays doesn't help things.

the mystery product is "Armada" sucking up X-wing resources and production!!

That would be excellent.

It has hardly been each and every time.

I have been wrong before, but ...

For each and every single wave that has been released since the initial starter box, I have all of the announcement dates, the promised dates/quarters within those announcements, and the specific date that the product actually was available for purchase. So ... let's go to the tape ...

Wave Announced Date Promised Date Released Date

1 4/17/2012 Q3 2012 9/14/2012

2 9/14/2012 Q4 2012 2/28/2013

3 5/4/2013 Q3 2013 9/12/2013

Imp Aces 9/16/2013 Q4 2013 3/14/2014

GR75 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 4/30/2014

CR90 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 5/22/2014

4 2/7/2014 Q2 2014 6/26/2014

Reb Aces 3/18/2014 Q3 2014 9/25/2014

5 6/13/2014 Q3 2014 11/26/2014

6 8/15/2014 Q4 2014 2/26/2015

Raider 12/19/2014 Q1 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

7 4/20/2015 Q2 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

Carrier 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

8 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

So, from Wave 1 through Wave 7, we have 12 product release dates. Of the 12, 3 of them were released "on-time". That is a 25% success rate. Of the failures, they have ranged from 2 to 8 months late, with the Raider and Wave 7 still not available.

Note also that my original comment was that their prognostication was getting worse over time, especially over the past few years. The data shows that to be accurate.

While you are correct that "each and every" is definitely an overstatement, the reality is far closer to my side than what your statement is implying.

Great summary. The track record is pretty poor based on this. In any other company a 25% on-time would be horrible and they would be doing Six Sigma and Lean studies to improve that performance level.

If I were FFG, I might just add 4 months onto whenever my pessimistic estimate was. I'd rather make people happy with early Christmas than sad with late Christmas.

It has hardly been each and every time.

I have been wrong before, but ...

For each and every single wave that has been released since the initial starter box, I have all of the announcement dates, the promised dates/quarters within those announcements, and the specific date that the product actually was available for purchase. So ... let's go to the tape ...

Wave Announced Date Promised Date Released Date

1 4/17/2012 Q3 2012 9/14/2012

2 9/14/2012 Q4 2012 2/28/2013

3 5/4/2013 Q3 2013 9/12/2013

Imp Aces 9/16/2013 Q4 2013 3/14/2014

GR75 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 4/30/2014

CR90 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 5/22/2014

4 2/7/2014 Q2 2014 6/26/2014

Reb Aces 3/18/2014 Q3 2014 9/25/2014

5 6/13/2014 Q3 2014 11/26/2014

6 8/15/2014 Q4 2014 2/26/2015

Raider 12/19/2014 Q1 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

7 4/20/2015 Q2 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

Carrier 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

8 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

So, from Wave 1 through Wave 7, we have 12 product release dates. Of the 12, 3 of them were released "on-time". That is a 25% success rate. Of the failures, they have ranged from 2 to 8 months late, with the Raider and Wave 7 still not available.

Note also that my original comment was that their prognostication was getting worse over time, especially over the past few years. The data shows that to be accurate.

While you are correct that "each and every" is definitely an overstatement, the reality is far closer to my side than what your statement is implying.

Check your dates for the dates of the dock strikes in California. I'm not saying you're wrong but some of the announced/promised dates look a little suspect. A 3rd quarter announcement with a 4th quarter delivery, for example, is one of those that looks a little odd. If your dates are correct then excluding parts of the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2015, it appears that FFG was wildly optimistic about deliveries. I'd be curious to learn how many different facilities are involved in producing X-wing. Off the cuff I'm figuring at least 3. Printing boxes, tokens, cards etc. Injection molding of the pvc packaging and finally production and painting of the models. Since we don't know where these facilities are located to each other or in relation to final assembly and packaging it's impossible to determine if there was a logistics problem. If the parts for X-wing had to travel any appreciable distance to the final assembly area that might give an indication of delays.

It has hardly been each and every time.

I have been wrong before, but ...

For each and every single wave that has been released since the initial starter box, I have all of the announcement dates, the promised dates/quarters within those announcements, and the specific date that the product actually was available for purchase. So ... let's go to the tape ...

Wave Announced Date Promised Date Released Date

1 4/17/2012 Q3 2012 9/14/2012

2 9/14/2012 Q4 2012 2/28/2013

3 5/4/2013 Q3 2013 9/12/2013

Imp Aces 9/16/2013 Q4 2013 3/14/2014

GR75 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 4/30/2014

CR90 8/20/2013 Q4 2013 5/22/2014

4 2/7/2014 Q2 2014 6/26/2014

Reb Aces 3/18/2014 Q3 2014 9/25/2014

5 6/13/2014 Q3 2014 11/26/2014

6 8/15/2014 Q4 2014 2/26/2015

Raider 12/19/2014 Q1 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

7 4/20/2015 Q2 2015 Not Available as of 8/1/2015

Carrier 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

8 7/31/2015 Q4 2015 To be determined

So, from Wave 1 through Wave 7, we have 12 product release dates. Of the 12, 3 of them were released "on-time". That is a 25% success rate. Of the failures, they have ranged from 2 to 8 months late, with the Raider and Wave 7 still not available.

Note also that my original comment was that their prognostication was getting worse over time, especially over the past few years. The data shows that to be accurate.

While you are correct that "each and every" is definitely an overstatement, the reality is far closer to my side than what your statement is implying.

Really, I count 4 released in the time frame. Wave 1, 3, 4, and Rebel Aces. And I'm not sure where you got those promises for the Rebel Epics, but even at Gencon, they said that they were showing the ships early.

Again, I'm not expecting Wave 8 this year, but even FFG were realistically expecting early next year. The overexageration of the delays doesn't help things.

You are correct. I missed Rebel Aces. So, 4 out of 12 is still only a 33% success rate. Pretty sure most companies would not be too proud about that ... and when they are wrong, they are really, really wrong. I think the facts speak for themselves ... I haven't exaggerated anything ...

As for the promised release dates ... they are readily available in all of their original announcement documents, which are still archived on this site.

I think some have mistaken the intent here ... I truly am not trying to bash on FFG ... at least not the sole point ...

As I said earlier, I love their products, and have spent more than $2,000 just on X-Wing alone. I simply am stating that I would really love to see them leverage their historical track record, production time frames, ship times frames, etc., and when they announce new products, provide a far more realistic delivery target date. After all, this is readily available to them, they simply need to utilize it.

Admittedly, the issue becomes worse when they provide limited product at GenCon, and then still take 2-4 months to deliver to the rest of the world.

Even if the Imperial Assault Carrier and Wave 8 got on the boat today, we wouldn't get it by the end of 2015 - not if the past few years is any indicator. And they aren't even close to doing that.

There were industry-wide shipping problems last year. Those are gone. Track the dates for wave 7 and Raider. They said 2-3 weeks until we have those.

When did they say this? I figured mid August or approximately 2 weeks after GenCon which would be about right.

Check your dates for the dates of the dock strikes in California. I'm not saying you're wrong but some of the announced/promised dates look a little suspect. A 3rd quarter announcement with a 4th quarter delivery, for example, is one of those that looks a little odd. If your dates are correct then excluding parts of the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2015, it appears that FFG was wildly optimistic about deliveries. I'd be curious to learn how many different facilities are involved in producing X-wing. Off the cuff I'm figuring at least 3. Printing boxes, tokens, cards etc. Injection molding of the pvc packaging and finally production and painting of the models. Since we don't know where these facilities are located to each other or in relation to final assembly and packaging it's impossible to determine if there was a logistics problem. If the parts for X-wing had to travel any appreciable distance to the final assembly area that might give an indication of delays.

The dates are accurate. In the beginning, when X-Wing first came out, the amount of customers for the product was limited. Obviously, it became wildly successful, and that can definitely impact delivery ... in the beginning.

But by now, they should have a firm grip on their customer base. They should have metrics on what to expect for certain sales at given price points. They (FFG) certainly know where all of their production sites are, logistics involved in making the product, production schedules, time frames, shipping schedules, time frames, etc.

All I am suggesting is that they LEVERAGE this information, and provide more realistic time frames for actual delivery of product.

I agree that it is absurd to announce something in Q3 and expect to deliver it in Q4 of the same year, especially given the past track record.

This is further compounded by the fact that FFG excessively provides spoilers for the product (imho) months in advance, and then do things like provide limited product at GenCon, and then still take 2-4 months to deliver to the rest of the world.

I want FFG to continue to succeed; I don't think there is anything wrong with providing constructive criticism to an approach that is clearly not working.

Even if the Imperial Assault Carrier and Wave 8 got on the boat today, we wouldn't get it by the end of 2015 - not if the past few years is any indicator. And they aren't even close to doing that.

There were industry-wide shipping problems last year. Those are gone. Track the dates for wave 7 and Raider. They said 2-3 weeks until we have those.

When did they say this? I figured mid August or approximately 2 weeks after GenCon which would be about right.