Im part of the 1%! lol I brought a lambda to the final table.... a rather bad showing at the end

go the tie-advanced!

look for its representation to shoot through the roof very soon

More X than Y? Hard to believe.

On average you see 2 Rebel Y wings per list, 1 X wing per list. So even though there were more Y Wings overall, the "chance" you saw a Y wing or an X wing was relatively the same.

Nice work.

I wish ListJuggler broke the data down like this. It's much more illuminating than the raw number of ships.

i'm sure i'd be able to do it myself given the time but it would be nice to see 'by faction', then you'd *really* get an idea of what you could expect in a top match.

Unless i'm being daft (bit sleepy today), if the falcon & tie interceptor are in say the top five you've got to discount one or the other when estimating 'what i might come up against' as you're not going to see those two in the same flight

Good graphs though, interesting spread and more diverse than i expected

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial top 8 percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

Good point. I've long argued that [certain ship] scores well in tournaments not because it out-performs, but because it's popular. That's not to say [certain ship] isn't a high performer, only that it's not the only, and perhaps most important, factor.

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

The top graph is top 8, the bottom is top 2. Unfortunately there's not enough data to be able to really see how the field is compared to the top ranks, but I think your assumption is a fair one.

What is good to note is that after making it to the top 8, your chances of making it to the final table are not really much better/worse for most ships, except a slight increase by Aggressors, which means Brobots have become a very solid meta list very quickly.

Notice that while TIEs are rarely in groups less than 4, they make up a tiny portion of the winners. So while everyone whined about TIE swarms until wave 4, they seemed to have disappeared outright. They now make up just 3.4% of the top 2 builds (goodbye Blount).

Notice 29.4% of top 8 lists have PWTs (higher if you include those Y-wing and HWK builds) and large base ships make up 41.3% of the top 8. Contrast that to last year's GenCon was the fist time a large ship won Nationals or Worlds.

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial top 8 percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial top 8 percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

However, if you look beyond the top 8 there are a higher percentage of Fat Hans (and named turrets overall) making the top 8 than are being brought, so, they are doing better proportionally overall, at least in getting to the elimination rounds.

I agree. It also leads me to think that fat Hans suffer more against specific top tier lists, more so than other top/popular builds.

One thing that is glaringly obvious is that about 50% was split between YT-1300, TIE Interceptor, Z-95 (Rebel), Decimator, and the Aggressor. Taking this into account, there's a good chance you will face one of the following lists in the top 8:

RAC+Fel

Han+3Z

Brobots

I'm putting money on one of these 3 lists winning Nationals, but Worlds could be a different scope once the new wave is out.

Whilst I agree that your extrapolation of what the likely makeup of the roughly half of the top 4 will be it also needs to be viewed in context:

1) There are highly competitive lists for all 3 factions

2) they still only make up half of the top lists, meaning that the remaining half of lists are made up from the remaining ships not mentioned

It's only natural that with the number of competitive players constantly testing lists and playing events, the cream rises to the top, but what this statistic tells me is that at least 50% of top8 ships are not these ships yet are still competitive.

What I would like to see though (as mentioned above) would be a final table breakdown, as if 1 of the big 3 lists is winning 80+ % of the time (or even 1 specific list winning 40+ % of the time), that’s when there is a problem.

Here is the breakdown for the top 2:

I'm kind of confused about what this chart is showing. You're saying it represents the chances of seeing each ship type in a top 2 list, right? So the chances of seeing a YT-1300/2400 or a Decimator at the final table ought to be the sum of the percentages - 11.8 + 11.4 + 9.1 = 32.3%. But I just went through the 74 regionals that have top 2 lists posted, and I counted exactly 74 squads that contained at least one of those three ships. So by my count that total ought to be more like 50% (there were a few regionals that only listed the winning squad, and I skipped those, but that still shouldn't be enough to account for the difference).

Am I missing something obvious here, or am I just misunderstanding what your chart is meant to show?

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial top 8 percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

However, if you look beyond the top 8 there are a higher percentage of Fat Hans (and named turrets overall) making the top 8 than are being brought, so, they are doing better proportionally overall, at least in getting to the elimination rounds.

That's an interesting point, but as has been mentioned, the data isn't available to show that. People keep saying these sorts of things without fully looking at all the evidence. A few regionals where the complete data is available isn't to say that all regionals are like that.

Not disagreeing, just encouraging you and others to do as has been done here and flesh out the research to prove the point.

Jacob

One thing that is glaringly obvious is that about 50% was split between YT-1300, TIE Interceptor, Z-95 (Rebel), Decimator, and the Aggressor. Taking this into account, there's a good chance you will face one of the following lists in the top 8:

RAC+Fel

Han+3Z

Brobots

I'm putting money on one of these 3 lists winning Nationals, but Worlds could be a different scope once the new wave is out.

Whilst I agree that your extrapolation of what the likely makeup of the roughly half of the top 4 will be it also needs to be viewed in context:

1) There are highly competitive lists for all 3 factions

2) they still only make up half of the top lists, meaning that the remaining half of lists are made up from the remaining ships not mentioned

It's only natural that with the number of competitive players constantly testing lists and playing events, the cream rises to the top, but what this statistic tells me is that at least 50% of top8 ships are not these ships yet are still competitive.

What I would like to see though (as mentioned above) would be a final table breakdown, as if 1 of the big 3 lists is winning 80+ % of the time (or even 1 specific list winning 40+ % of the time), that’s when there is a problem.

Here is the breakdown for the top 2:

I'm kind of confused about what this chart is showing. You're saying it represents the chances of seeing each ship type in a top 2 list, right? So the chances of seeing a YT-1300/2400 or a Decimator at the final table ought to be the sum of the percentages - 11.8 + 11.4 + 9.1 = 32.3%. But I just went through the 74 regionals that have top 2 lists posted, and I counted exactly 74 squads that contained at least one of those three ships. So by my count that total ought to be more like 50% (there were a few regionals that only listed the winning squad, and I skipped those, but that still shouldn't be enough to account for the difference).

Am I missing something obvious here, or am I just misunderstanding what your chart is meant to show?

It's percentages based on ship, not based on list. So, you need to add the other ships from the list to make up the rest of your %50.

Perhaps this explains it. Of the total ships used in a top two, approximately %30 were a YT1300, YT2400, or a Decimator.

Jacob

Notice that while TIEs are rarely in groups less than 4, they make up a tiny portion of the winners. So while everyone whined about TIE swarms until wave 4, they seemed to have disappeared outright. They now make up just 3.4% of the top 2 builds (goodbye Blount).

Notice 29.4% of top 8 lists have PWTs (higher if you include those Y-wing and HWK builds) and large base ships make up 41.3% of the top 8. Contrast that to last year's GenCon was the fist time a large ship won Nationals or Worlds.

Narrowing it down to just PWT doesn't really help because it is dependent on the success of other ships in their factions. The TIE Interceptor, or Soontir specifically, became a tier 1 ship with Autothrusters that is a great closer. It so happens that he pairs very well with a VT-49 for support so it can draw fire away from him for several turns.

The YT-1300 is very successful in two builds: YT-1300+3Z (usually Han), and YT-1300/YT-2400 combo, usually Chewie/Leebo. In fact, Chewie is seeing more play than Han currently, if I have time I'll try to have a break down by pilot and/or list combination.

This is my conclusion: I either don't know how Juggler works, or it literally doesn't present information that's useful. I only see the ability to see stuff in categories that are not relevant anymore. Like all time, or store champs only.

Anyone care to explain how the website works?

The Tableau section of the site has a bit more interesting data.

You might also be interested in the top lists page which shows you the most played lists.

The charts page has some filters to say 'only store champ data' or 'only regional data' or 'championship lists' those that made the cut.

In terms of how the site works, its pretty simple: people graciously donate their time to upload tourneys / lists, and then I provide some simple views on top of that data.

Additionally juggler is a platform for delivering the data to folks who like to get their hands dirty (this thread!). There are 3 ways: either 1) download the Tableau desktop client and muck around in there, or 2) download all the tournament results as a big 'ol csv file and play around with it in Excel or Matlab or something , or 3) download all the data as a MySQL database and play around with it in SQL.

HTH!

EDIT: The pay is fantastic! :-) JK, it's all open source software.

One thing that is glaringly obvious is that about 50% was split between YT-1300, TIE Interceptor, Z-95 (Rebel), Decimator, and the Aggressor. Taking this into account, there's a good chance you will face one of the following lists in the top 8:

RAC+Fel

Han+3Z

Brobots

I'm putting money on one of these 3 lists winning Nationals, but Worlds could be a different scope once the new wave is out.

Whilst I agree that your extrapolation of what the likely makeup of the roughly half of the top 4 will be it also needs to be viewed in context:

1) There are highly competitive lists for all 3 factions

2) they still only make up half of the top lists, meaning that the remaining half of lists are made up from the remaining ships not mentioned

It's only natural that with the number of competitive players constantly testing lists and playing events, the cream rises to the top, but what this statistic tells me is that at least 50% of top8 ships are not these ships yet are still competitive.

What I would like to see though (as mentioned above) would be a final table breakdown, as if 1 of the big 3 lists is winning 80+ % of the time (or even 1 specific list winning 40+ % of the time), that’s when there is a problem.

Here is the breakdown for the top 2:

I'm kind of confused about what this chart is showing. You're saying it represents the chances of seeing each ship type in a top 2 list, right? So the chances of seeing a YT-1300/2400 or a Decimator at the final table ought to be the sum of the percentages - 11.8 + 11.4 + 9.1 = 32.3%. But I just went through the 74 regionals that have top 2 lists posted, and I counted exactly 74 squads that contained at least one of those three ships. So by my count that total ought to be more like 50% (there were a few regionals that only listed the winning squad, and I skipped those, but that still shouldn't be enough to account for the difference).

Am I missing something obvious here, or am I just misunderstanding what your chart is meant to show?

It's percentages based on ship, not based on list. So, you need to add the other ships from the list to make up the rest of your %50.

Perhaps this explains it. Of the total ships used in a top two, approximately %30 were a YT1300, YT2400, or a Decimator.

Jacob

Some of the numbers were adjusted for filler ships such as Z95's, B-Wings, and TIE Fighters, but more or less yes.

The most interesting part of this that I'm intrepeting, is that the top table percentages are very similar to the initial top 8 percentages. In other words, the only reason there are quite a few Fat Hans winning is because there are quite a few Fat Hans being brought to the table. Not because the ones showing up are doing proportionally better than the competition.

However, if you look beyond the top 8 there are a higher percentage of Fat Hans (and named turrets overall) making the top 8 than are being brought, so, they are doing better proportionally overall, at least in getting to the elimination rounds.

That's an interesting point, but as has been mentioned, the data isn't available to show that. People keep saying these sorts of things without fully looking at all the evidence. A few regionals where the complete data is available isn't to say that all regionals are like that.

Not disagreeing, just encouraging you and others to do as has been done here and flesh out the research to prove the point.

Jacob

There are almost 5000 ships in the regionals lists and about 1100 in elimination rounds. I understand your point and what you're asking, but I'll flip the question to you. If you think that isn't enough data or that it's somehow being skewed, why don't you do the digging? It's very easy to always respond with "that's not enough information."

Personally, I think it's enough data for me to say that the success of turrets (at least in getting to elimination rounds) is not simply due to their popularity.

There are almost 5000 ships in the regionals lists and about 1100 in elimination rounds. I understand your point and what you're asking, but I'll flip the question to you. If you think that isn't enough data or that it's somehow being skewed, why don't you do the digging? It's very easy to always respond with "that's not enough information."

Personally, I think it's enough data for me to say that the success of turrets (at least in getting to elimination rounds) is not simply due to their popularity.

Sure thing, but unfortunately, l also don't have the time to do that sort of thing. I can however use the example of the regional I just played in this past weekend in Saskatoon. (http://lists.starwarsclubhouse.com/get_tourney_details?tourney_id=549)

- 19 lists played

- 7 Rebel, 7 Imperial, 5 scum

- 1 Han+, 2 Chiraneau+, 2 chewbo, 1 chewdash, 3 dash+ for a total of 9 lists with a primary weapon turret and large base (I recognize that not all see Dash as PWT but for sake of argument go with me).

- There were also 1 Brobot, and 2 Bobabot lists, a dual Firespray list, and a Firespray+ list (meaning all 5 Scum lists brought either IG88, a Firespray, or both)

So in, other words, 14 of a total 19 lists brought large base ships. A little less than %50 of the total lists on the day included a PWT. about %25 of the lists were made up just of Small Base ships, and about %25 of the lists included large base arcs. By your reckoning, above, you suggest that a higher percentage of Fat Hans (and named turrets overall) are making the top cut than are being brought.

Our top cut was to 4, and the lists were:

- 4BZ

- Bobabot (winner)

- Chireneau and Echo

- Chireneau and 3 ties

So, Han didn't make the top cut, and only %50 of the top cut were turrets, %25 were large base arc ships, and %25 were small base arc ships. That's pretty much on par with the what was brought that day. I'm not saying I disagree with you, but I think it's important to present the evidence behind what you're saying. I think you did it in your other post this morning. It looks like from what your data is suggesting, about %25 of lists include a Large Base Turret, and about %30 of the top cut include a Large Base Turret. That to me isn't so bad. It means they're strong, but not broken.

Something of note, the longer I look and the deeper I research these stats, is that it seems like individual list strength often has something to do with these data points. What I'm saying is, there's a big difference between a good and efficient small base list (4BZ) and the thing that someone wants to try out for fun (5 Scimitar Bombers). The results are all skewed because of anomalies on the low end of the spectrum. The various Regionals that have complete lists all have examples of lists that many players would see as not competitive, and because of their low records it moves the stronger base lists up the ladder.

That's why looking at top cuts and then comparing it to just the top 2 we see more balance in the field. Once you make the top cut, your chance of getting to the final with whatever list brought you there seems to be pretty even. I would suspect this is due in large part to the fact that you have to be a pretty good pilot flying a pretty strong list to even make a top cut. If you're either not a pretty good pilot, or flying something that's not an optimal list, your chance of even getting to the top cut is quite small.

So, in the end, I think it's all how you read the data.

Jacob

One thing that is glaringly obvious is that about 50% was split between YT-1300, TIE Interceptor, Z-95 (Rebel), Decimator, and the Aggressor. Taking this into account, there's a good chance you will face one of the following lists in the top 8:

RAC+Fel

Han+3Z

Brobots

I'm putting money on one of these 3 lists winning Nationals, but Worlds could be a different scope once the new wave is out.

Whilst I agree that your extrapolation of what the likely makeup of the roughly half of the top 4 will be it also needs to be viewed in context:

1) There are highly competitive lists for all 3 factions

2) they still only make up half of the top lists, meaning that the remaining half of lists are made up from the remaining ships not mentioned

It's only natural that with the number of competitive players constantly testing lists and playing events, the cream rises to the top, but what this statistic tells me is that at least 50% of top8 ships are not these ships yet are still competitive.

What I would like to see though (as mentioned above) would be a final table breakdown, as if 1 of the big 3 lists is winning 80+ % of the time (or even 1 specific list winning 40+ % of the time), that’s when there is a problem.

Here is the breakdown for the top 2:

I'm kind of confused about what this chart is showing. You're saying it represents the chances of seeing each ship type in a top 2 list, right? So the chances of seeing a YT-1300/2400 or a Decimator at the final table ought to be the sum of the percentages - 11.8 + 11.4 + 9.1 = 32.3%. But I just went through the 74 regionals that have top 2 lists posted, and I counted exactly 74 squads that contained at least one of those three ships. So by my count that total ought to be more like 50% (there were a few regionals that only listed the winning squad, and I skipped those, but that still shouldn't be enough to account for the difference).

Am I missing something obvious here, or am I just misunderstanding what your chart is meant to show?

I think you brought up a great point, so it garnered a second look.

The graphs I have showed is a distribution of ship type in the overall pool of ships seen in the top tables (with some adjustmemts made for filler ships such as B-Wings, Z95s, and TIE Fighters).

The following is what I think you're looking for:

% Appearance based on total number of lists, Top 8:

% Appearance based on total number of lists, Final Table:

So this is straight up (Lists that have this ship in them)/(Total lists).

Notice that while TIEs are rarely in groups less than 4, they make up a tiny portion of the winners. So while everyone whined about TIE swarms until wave 4, they seemed to have disappeared outright. They now make up just 3.4% of the top 2 builds (goodbye Blount).

Notice 29.4% of top 8 lists have PWTs (higher if you include those Y-wing and HWK builds) and large base ships make up 41.3% of the top 8. Contrast that to last year's GenCon was the fist time a large ship won Nationals or Worlds.

The Tie Fighter was the most surprising to me. But I guess people are just kind of bored of running swarms. Also, the fact that a lot of stuff counters them now pretty effectively.

In those charts:

- the Aggressor is the ship that shows the largest jump from appearances from the Top 8 (~%14.5) to appearances in the Top 2 (~%21)

- B-wings drop from a %14.5 showing in the top 8 to a %10 showing in the top 2

- Interestingly, if a Defender makes the top 8, its more likely to end up in the Top 2 (I think that's how you read it)

Jacob

Additionally juggler is a platform for delivering the data to folks who like to get their hands dirty (this thread!). There are 3 ways: either 1) download the Tableau desktop client and muck around in their, or 2) download all the tournament results as a big 'ol csv file and play around with it in Excel or Matlab or something , or 3) download all the data as a MySQL database and play around with it in SQL.

This is the worst thing that has happened to my work productivity in a long time. Played around with a smaller subset of the results: (sorry about the formatting, I guess I don't have permissions to upload a screencap yet.)

EDIT: Fixed it.

These results are pulled only from lists at Regionals and Worlds that placed 25 or better in Swiss. Note that Avg Swiss Rank is for each unique combination of ship and List ID#. The information shouldn't really be much of a surprise except for a few interesting oddities:

Tie Advanced - only six ships in six lists but still managed to place #1 somewhere and has a strong average performance. I have to assume that whoever is piloting these lists are quite good.

Star Viper - a best performance of only 4th place and not many performances in general makes me think an elite few are really trying to make this ship work.

Tie Fighter - the highest average list quantity and decent number of performances but less successful on average. Difficult to pilot or just outclassed by the current meta?

I love data and statistics.

Jacob

In those charts:

- the Aggressor is the ship that shows the largest jump from appearances from the Top 8 (~%14.5) to appearances in the Top 2 (~%21)

- B-wings drop from a %14.5 showing in the top 8 to a %10 showing in the top 2

- Interestingly, if a Defender makes the top 8, its more likely to end up in the Top 2 (I think that's how you read it)

Jacob

Interesting Notes:

The following 3 ships had a significant increase in appearance in the Final Table vs. Top 8:

Aggressor (+5.69%)

YT-1300 (+3.64%)

VT-49 Decimator (+2.53%)

B-Wings had a significant decrease in appearance in the Final Table vs. Top 8 (-4.54%)