Figure on 2+ months 'at the printer', plus what seems to be now 2+ months 'on the boat'. Assuming that Wave 2 just went into manufacturing, that puts us into November at the earliest.Wave two is now at the printers. October is quite realistic.
You're assuming that they only updated that status the same day or before they got the printer. For all we know that ball got rolling days or weeks ago. Never say never, but I'm comfortable believing 4th qtr is a good timeframe.
I have feeling that FFG is shooting for a after Worlds but before Christmas release in order to capitalize on the gift buying feeding frenzy