I did some calculations between the two, and found that the concentration of fire in one shot worked out marginally better overall, like 2%, however my calculation lowered the expected damage of each shot by the probability that the opponent can use the brace token (or more simply put, brace adjusted damage).

However, I think from a practical perspective that the primary benefit of concentrating fire vs spreading fire is the opponent is far, far less likely to exhaust the brace against a weaker attack, and much more likely to be denied a brace when using a larger dice pool with more accuracies.

Therefore, it once again comes back to playing your opponent. Does he always brace to save 1 damage, 2 damage, ect. What is the damage threshold for her to burn the brace?

Why don't you just take the four damage from my front arc, as you know I will be throwing 7 dice at you during my next shot.

I did some calculations between the two, and found that the concentration of fire in one shot worked out marginally better overall, like 2%, however my calculation lowered the expected damage of each shot by the probability that the opponent can use the brace token (or more simply put, brace adjusted damage).

However, I think from a practical perspective that the primary benefit of concentrating fire vs spreading fire is the opponent is far, far less likely to exhaust the brace against a weaker attack, and much more likely to be denied a brace when using a larger dice pool with more accuracies.

Therefore, it once again comes back to playing your opponent. Does he always brace to save 1 damage, 2 damage, ect. What is the damage threshold for her to burn the brace?

Why don't you just take the four damage from my front arc, as you know I will be throwing 7 dice at you during my next shot.

So, for your point regarding a small attack followed by a large attack: I made the script run the always in decreasing order, so the opponent will always brace on the larger attack first! (even if it's a Paragon shot, which is scripted to be first here, for this exact reason). And the results show exactly that when he does Brace, he gets more out of it than he would if you shot two balanced shots!

If your opponent doesn't use Brace against little damage, then clearly it is better to shoot medium dice pools twice, rather than a large dice pool and a small one, right?

One thing I'd like to see if the effect that the X17 turbolasers have on the outcome. They just about negate one of the defense tokens. They seem really good in large dice pool attacks. If you can roll 1 accuracy they pretty much maul a victory. In your example they seem like they'd drastically reduce the amount of available hps a ship has that's being fired at by one.

If you can do enough damage to kill a ship while keeping it in the arc of your chosing then XI7 speeds things up.

On the other hand if you fly out of arc then about all it does is throw down some damage or a critical where you otherwise may have just done shield damage. Because, as you fly past you will now be attacking good shields or at least better ones than had your opponent redirected. Consider three attacks that deal 3 damage each. A VSD now has only its rear shields. So as you fly past you deal full damage on downed shields. If he spreads damage, and assuming he burns one of the redirects he'll have zero front, zero off-side and three just where you'll fly to next turn. So, sure you'll have three hull damage, but then he has three shields on the side you'll be facing.

If in order to stay in the same arc, you take any additional risk beyond normal then the XI7 can actually be counter productive, say in the above example you keep your ships in the front of the enemy ship, then you may take 3 red and 3 blue/black dice for your troubles.

As such the XI7 is rather situational. Turning off a VSDs brace will be far better.

One thing I'd like to see if the effect that the X17 turbolasers have on the outcome. They just about negate one of the defense tokens. They seem really good in large dice pool attacks. If you can roll 1 accuracy they pretty much maul a victory. In your example they seem like they'd drastically reduce the amount of available hps a ship has that's being fired at by one.

If you can do enough damage to kill a ship while keeping it in the arc of your chosing then XI7 speeds things up.

On the other hand if you fly out of arc then about all it does is throw down some damage or a critical where you otherwise may have just done shield damage. Because, as you fly past you will now be attacking good shields or at least better ones than had your opponent redirected. Consider three attacks that deal 3 damage each. A VSD now has only its rear shields. So as you fly past you deal full damage on downed shields. If he spreads damage, and assuming he burns one of the redirects he'll have zero front, zero off-side and three just where you'll fly to next turn. So, sure you'll have three hull damage, but then he has three shields on the side you'll be facing.

If in order to stay in the same arc, you take any additional risk beyond normal then the XI7 can actually be counter productive, say in the above example you keep your ships in the front of the enemy ship, then you may take 3 red and 3 blue/black dice for your troubles.

As such the XI7 is rather situational. Turning off a VSDs brace will be far better.

I agree. My main point was that Redirect doesn't cancel damage, while Brace does. Redirecting only 1 shield instead of 3 will be good in one particular shot, but over the course of the game it may have little effect.

In my experience, VSDs I kill have little to no remaining shields. I always have multiple shots on them, sometimes from many ships and angles, sometimes from one big ship, over the course of more rounds. The VSD will always get an opportunity to use one of those attacks to redirect, even if he can only do one at a time. But let's be realistic, you're not going to have XI7 on every ship.

Against AFMKIIs on the other hand... If you are an Imperial player the AF will always show you a single side (front/side in the beginning, side, then back/side perhaps), XI7 may allow you to get some big shots in.

For evades perhaps you should have it cancel the top red die and for blue die have the top value re-rolled.

Might get a more accurate statistical model.

Also you should try posting this on Team Covenant. They got their website sorted.

Awesome awesome. Thank you.

For evades perhaps you should have it cancel the top red die and for blue die have the top value re-rolled.

Might get a more accurate statistical model.

Also you should try posting this on Team Covenant. They got their website sorted.

I haven't included evades or rerolls yet. That's why I used Rebels vs. VSDs as an example.

edit: I'm also behind on working on Part II since I'm prepping for X-wing regionals. Might be showing some new X-wing math soon.

edit2: What are your thoughts in regards to posting there? Should I dump the whole article, but link to my blog in the beginning? Or just drop a link? I kinda like my little blog more, since I can organize it however I want (I aim to keep every informative post on the sidebar.. etc)