So I'm starting to prep for these big tournaments coming up, and I'm starting to wonder will MOV even matter?

MOV is obviously the tiebreaker for the some W-L record but with these larger tournaments where so few people make the cut, does MOV become so important that it becomes unimportant?

Am I really thinking about bringing a swarm?

Let me explain.

The easiest way to make the top cut is to win every game. (Easier said then done)

Unless something changes with the way the tournaments are run, 200 person swiss means that even with one loss, you might still not make the cut.

Generally with the rise of two ship builds, a players will go to a regional with that build because it will give them the advantage in the tiebreaker because generally most one loss players will make the cut.

If only the luckiest one loss players (who lost a close game) make the cut, does it make sense to not play MOV safe (and most likely miss the cut to those players with the close games) and say "screw playing safe, I'm for outright destruction. My margin of error is small, but my red dice are many?"

Maybe I'm complete off here...

It really depends on the size of the cut and where you suspect you might land. I usually make cuts, but I almost never go undefeated. So if I was headed to a tournament where half the people with 1 loss wouldn't make the cut then I'd probably worry about my MOV. If all the people with 1 loss are going to make the cut then I generally don't worry about it at all.

Well that’s certainly a good attitude to have, however the chances of only players that have won all their games making top 8 re very slim.

Basically for only winners to make top 8 in a 5 round, cut to top 8 would be a minimum of 256 players.

Assuming (most certainly) you have less than 256 players at your 5 round event, there will be 1 or more players on X-1 that will make top 8, at which point MOV becomes relevant. If you have 6 rounds then most likely 4 or more players on X-1 will make it.

Of course if you’re playing to win every game it does not matter anyway.

Right. If only 4 people make the cut. Odds are it was from a close game and gaming the mov system so that's it's either a 200 or 150 point win might not be enough to save you.

So is it with playing a list that's a good list but had generally been considered unplayable because losing a tie hurts your MOv

I've pondered this myself, it's a valid question, but the biggest problem is that it can't be known precisely before the day, and it is best countered when designing your squad, which should be locked in well before game day.

It's a fairly trivial exercise to create a spreadsheet that gives an approximate distribution of n, n-1, n-2.... players for given starting conditions, even factoring in championship byes. It's by no means a perfect answer, as it doesn't account for draws and mod wins, but it's good enough to use as a planning figure. I did this analysis to help decide which regional i should play my store champ bye at.

Case 1: Consider that the analysis suggests 1 person undefeated and 8 people on n-1 wins at the end of swiss, and a top 8 cut. Obviously 1 person on n-1 will drop. In this case MoV doesn't matter so much, win at least n-1 games and there's a 7/8 chance you are through.

Case 2: Now consider the analysis suggests 1 undefeated and 12 people n-1 at the end of swiss, still with a top 8 cut. You now have to win at least n-1 and be in the top 7/12 based on MoV. In this case MoV is a real concern, 5/12 people miss the cut based on it.

So, given you can only have one bye card, which scenario is the better use of it? Remeber, The bye is not just a win, but a 200-0 kicker to your MoV, so it's better used in case 2.

It's a bit of a tangent from the OP, but you could use a similar analysis to work out if MoV is relevant in the tournie you are attending, but i think you should focus on finding a list you think you can win n-1 games with first! Because without that MoV definitely doesn't matter.

TLDR: Q: Will MoV matter? A: It depends, because math.

I feel like the more important question is how well does a TIE swarm handle Dash and Corran? Decimators and Falcons can't handle the mob very long in my experience but Dash goes where he pleases and fights at range 3, so it seems like he counters swarms reasonably well.

The predominant reason why MoV makes swarms bad is not because of tiebreakers, but because it makes it more likely that you will lose the game at time, or be forced into non-optimal tactical choices to prevent such an outcome.

I take a defender/mini swarm to tourneys all the time and I don't remember the last time I missed a cut based on mov. It's more fun to not worry about every little point. Let your wins do the talking, and if you lose a couple, just assume you are out and have more fun instead of worrying. That's what works for me anyway...

MOV only matters for cuts for people that don't lose more than 1 game. If you are going for roughly 50% win ration then don't worry about MOV too much.

However if you are confidant that you want to win every game then it is best to plan for MOV as it can turn a win to a loss or a modified win. Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't most of the cut have all wins with the lowest having only 1 loss or modified win?

So, I'm assuming you're discussing Gencon since you specifically mentioned 200 players. My understanding is that Gencon is going to be 200 players, 7 rounds, cut to top 16. If we assume for a moment that all 24 regional byes are turned in, and every match ends in a complete win (instead of a draw or modified), and no one drops out, then at the end of the 7 rounds, there will be:

2 7-0

12 6-1

34 5-2

56 4-3

53 3-4

32 2-5

9 1-6

2 0-7

Therefore, the top 16 will be made of 14 players with 1 loss or less. This is ideally the group you want to target, and as such MOV doesn't matter. There will be two LUCKY players at 5-2 that will make the cut by having the highest MOV, but concerning yourself over MOV in the event you lose a second game is probably not the best way to approach the tourney. And in all honesty, this is exactly how FFG should hope the tourney turns out.

That said, not all 24 byes will show up, and not all of the games will result in win/loss outcomes, so the number of 5-2 folks making the top 16 will be closer to 5 would be my guess. But still, you're looking at 5 of 34, so it's still better to just go for the 6-1 record.

The worst case for FFG would be if they were to make it an 8 person cut. If that was to happen, then 6 of the 6-1 would make it, and 6 of the 6-1 would NOT make it. As such, the MOV tie breaker is just as important as your record, and actually dictates who makes the cut and who doesn't. Horrible way to cut it.