Wow, no green straights! That would be weird. No ship in the game has that! You would have to bank just to clear stress, hm... I don't think I have an easy answer for that one!

I want a ship with a dial that's the inverse of the Defender. All the straights are red. Hard turns green. One weird, weird ship.

Call it the Tie Offender, I guess.

I like what you are doing with the math but i dont think its the ultimate truth. There are so many combinations to concider that jousting value isnt the only thing thats important.

Correct, and this is made clear in how I present the results. That's why I also include total cost predictions as well, that takes into account the dial, actions, etc. I even include a "required efficiency" number which lets you work backwards to figure out how much more damage (positive or mitigation) you need to do to break even vs your expected dice rolls.

Also you have some baselines what is worth how much, which is necessary but there could be other definitions with different results.

I'm not really sure what you mean here. The point though, is that everything is a relative measurement, so the best ships end up getting used the most, and therefore become the baseline against which future ships must be judged.

Moreover i guess you don't know what they could spend on developing the game. Noone outside their business does.

Spending money does not necessarily equate to hiring specific expertise, but conversely if you want specific expertise you have to pay for it. One can get a general sense for how much FFG pays by checking employer reviews on sites like glassdoor.com.

Who knows if they have an statistics/empirics expert in their developing team?

Expert is a relative term. FFG has a design and playtesting process for determining balanced ship costs which I am not privy to. All I can tell you is that in waves 1-6 all of the under performing ships, particularly the inevitable dud generic ships that are present in each wave, could have been balanced correctly by the use of advanced mathematics.

Also, see the point above.

Who knows if they even had serisouy plans going beyond wave 2 or anything?

Knowing FFG they certainly had a plan, but again, if you establish a reasonable baseline initially then it doesn't really matter -- you use that as the "pivot point" that you balance all future ships against.

I think in general we arent so far from each others opinion. So i dont think we have to further discuss all the points.

One thing i found especially interesting in your answer that at the same time explains where im coming from is:

"The point though, is that everything is a relative measurement, so the best ships end up getting used the most, and therefore become the baseline against which future ships must be judged." (Major Juggler)

So your stats are basically a relative measurement in comparison to the TIE fighter. While math can relatively easily compare those stats directly i think it doesnt meassure what happens with those ship stats in actual games.

What i mean with that is that ships are used differently. Some are mere blockers some are meant to avoid dive throws of others. I understand that you are trying to value those possibilities into your stats. But how much points in your values is acess to PTL really worth in combnation to differen squads lists, tactics and so on.

I'm not sure if you actually wanted to express the middle segment of your statement in reflection to your statistics or how you meant it. "The best ships end up getting used the most". Are you talking about the best ships from your calculations? Because i guess you don't, because you didn't actually make any surveys about ship usage in the x-wing player community in comparison to your calculations. So i don't wanna set your words in that middle part on knifes edge. However if we talk about math we have to stick to what your math can interprete and what it cannot interprete.

My point is that the interpretation of math` results is as important as doing the actual calculation. So the question is what does a slightly lower percentage value in your calculations actually mean?

"Only" because it seems to correlate with current usage of X-Wings in actual game reports and opnions on this board those two thing dont actually have to correlate with each other. There are so many thing that are going into it. E.g. how points and winners are calculated in tournaments. What is the shiny new toy to play around with. And so on... I'm sure you know what im trying to say.

So what are the best ships and why? I think your calculations are interesting and its worth taking a look at them. However i think you are going to far in claiming that just a little math and it would have been easy to balance the basic (first introduced) ships in the game.

So does lightning reflexes take the star viper out of the game? Now that every ship can do a sloop at least once.

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

Actually another point just sunk in: I don't know why the article points out that the Kihraxz doesn't fly in formation, when it basically has a Scyk dial. Graz with a couple of Ion Spacers could be pretty potent against a large turret, or Talonbane next to HLC Laetin could mess with targeting priority!

I saw that earlier too. I'm just not sure the Scyk with an Ion is any better than a Kz with an Ion missile. I've never been a huge fan of all out control though.

I think it really just shows how mediocre the Scyk dial is. An interceptor it is not.

So does lightning reflexes take the star viper out of the game? Now that every ship can do a sloop at least once.

Naw. At least, not for that reason. With Push the Limit, any ship with an EPT can take 2 actions, but Darth sees play because (once the Raider drops) his ship + ability are amazing.

But- pre Raider- his ability wasn't enough to make his ship worth taking. So if the Star Viper is good, the fact that other ships can do similar things won't make it bad. But if it's not good, then the fact that other ships can do similar things won't make it bad.

So does lightning reflexes take the star viper out of the game? Now that every ship can do a sloop at least once.

LR takes the Viper out of the game as much as dare-devil takes ships with 1-hards out of the game

So does lightning reflexes take the star viper out of the game? Now that every ship can do a sloop at least once.

I really don't think so. The Star Viper still has access to the Systems upgrade slot via the Virago title and native boost and barrel rool, so it can take stuff like Advanced Sensors and Autothrusters and pull off some interesting maneuvers that the Kihraxz, Scyk, etc. just can't.

So does lightning reflexes take the star viper out of the game? Now that every ship can do a sloop at least once.

Naw. At least, not for that reason. With Push the Limit, any ship with an EPT can take 2 actions, but Darth sees play because (once the Raider drops) his ship + ability are amazing.

But- pre Raider- his ability wasn't enough to make his ship worth taking. So if the Star Viper is good, the fact that other ships can do similar things won't make it bad. But if it's not good, then the fact that other ships can do similar things won't make it bad.

something akin to this might work

Turr Phennir (25)

Lightning Reflexes (1)

Stealth Device (3)

Autothrusters (2)

Yorr (24)

Palpatine (8)

Mango Cannon (4)

Vader (29)

Reflexes (1)

Title (0)

Accuracy Correcter (0*)

Stealth Device (3)

Here

Turr can do his move, Flip, get the stress removed, then BR or Boost as per his ability plus with palp making him even harder to kil.

Same can be said with vader, plus two guaranteed hits a turn. Yorr would take his stress, then allow him to take his two actions.

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

And... I'm not sure than 1 extra die, once, at range 1 is worth the 3 extra points.

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

Talonbane don't need Prockets ... btw.

But Graz still gets the +1 green even in R1

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

And... I'm not sure than 1 extra die, once, at range 1 is worth the 3 extra points.

You could 1-shot an E-Wing ;P

While 5 ships is possible is it even going to be a great list without upgrades low ps and only 2 def die each.

15 atk die a turn are nice

And

25 hull/shield are good

But you are not gaining a lot of defense with this list and it's going to fall apart quickly. It's like a weak version of a 7 tie swarm and a buffed howl runner.

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

Talonbane don't need Prockets ... btw.

But Graz still gets the +1 green even in R1

You're right, Talonbane doesn't need it. My point was that Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets will roll the same amount of attack dice as Graz with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets because they have the same agility when attacking. That's all I was trying to get at.

True, Graz gets the +1 green when defending (even at range 1), but you can't use that with Proton Rockets which only checks your agility value when you attack.

Or am I missing something and you're not talking about increasing Proton Rockets' dice with Graz's ability?

as far as I'm concerned, prockets are worthless on Special-Ks given its the same as your basic range 1 attack (Talonbane does not proc prockets, no range bonus on 2ndary weapons). As mentioned, Graz's ability doesn't affect agility and therefore doesn't buff prockets either.

SD are also worthless on anyone that isn't soontir because green dice

6 points is not worth the potential +1 die, once (especially since you'll probably just lose SD before you even make it in)

Talonbane + Expose + Glitterstim might be worth.

Expose gets you 6 red dice and you will be getting first shot almost always, so it would work well to finish off a close range target before they counterattack. Plus you could use it at Range 3 for 4 red dice and still get 3 green dice.

expose is almost never worth it the raw number of dice will basically be countered by the lack of dice modifications, meaning you're almost always better off with predator unless you roll like crazy. If expose was action-less (holy **** it'd be nice) you could at least combo it with a TL and then stim it up.

I personally wouldn't mess with cobra's dice by trying to add to the number. what's wrong with a "mere" five dice?

While 5 ships is possible is it even going to be a great list without upgrades low ps and only 2 def die each.

15 atk die a turn are nice

And

25 hull/shield are good

But you are not gaining a lot of defense with this list and it's going to fall apart quickly. It's like a weak version of a 7 tie swarm and a buffed howl runner.

It's basically the same as BBBBZ - just a tiny bit less powerful in straight up dice.

Early preliminary analysis. More work needs to be done on tuning the named pilot ability calculations.

------------------------------------------- Kihraxz ------------------------------------

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req

Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff

PS2 Kihraxz 20 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 17.9 | 93.2% | 90.9% - 95.1% | 122.4%

PS5 Kihraxz 23 | 21.7 | 19 | 17.9 | 94% | 91.7% - 95.9% | 157.6%

Graz the Hunter2 25 | 23.7 | 19 | 17.9 | 94% | 91.7% - 95.9% | 183.3%

Talonbane Cobra 28 | 28 | 20.4 | 20.3 | 99.8% | 96.4% - 102.7% | 178.6%

Graz ability temporary approximation: simply valued at 2 points

Talonbane: durability approximation: durability boost proportional to 50% of offensive boost via ability

For reference here are the X-wing pilots.

----------------------------------------- X-wings --------------------------------------

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req

Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff

PS2 X-wing 21 | 18.6 | 20.2 | 18.1 | 89.7% | 87.6% - 91.5% | 131.2%

PS4 X-wing 23 | 20.1 | 20.4 | 18.1 | 88.5% | 86.4% - 90.2% | 154.5%

-- snip--

And here are the B-wings for reference.

----------------------------------------- B-wings --------------------------------------

Cost | | PS1 Jousting Efficiency | req

Ship name actual|predict| PS1 | JV | std | range | eff

PS2 B-wing 22 | 21.4 | 21.1 | 19.9 | 94.2% | 91.4% - 96.5% | 120%

PS4 B-wing 24 | 23.1 | 21.3 | 19.9 | 93.3% | 90.4% - 95.5% | 140.4%

-- snip --

Summary:

• PS2 generic:
  • Costed slightly on the side of caution at 20 points.
  • Could probably afford to be 19 points without risking being imbalanced.
  • Quantifiably 1 point less overcosted than the X-wing.
  • With a jousting efficiency almost as good as B-wings', they're not automatically obsolete like the X-wing is, but they also have less overall tricks than the B-wing (i.e. no system upgrade slot), and still don't have the efficiency of a Z-95 or TIE Fighter.
  • The jousting combat effectiveness of 5x Kihraxz is about 96% of BBBBZ (probably the real stat everyone cares about):

[5^2*NormalizedDurability_2_4_1*Attack_3/Attack_2] /

[(4*Attack_3/Attack_2 + 1)*(4*NormalizedDurability_1_3_5 + NormalizedDurability_2_2_2)]

= 0.96

If you're going to use Expose + Glitterstim on Talonbane, then you might want to use Experimental Interface as well. That way you can Target Lock, trigger EI to Expose, and activate Glitterstim, for a 6-dice attack with TL and Focus. Of course, you end up taking 2 stress to do that, so you either want to use that as a finishing move or have a plan to deal with the stress (such as having a Wingman or two nearby).

yum yum, so many free points

expose is almost never worth it the raw number of dice will basically be countered by the lack of dice modifications, meaning you're almost always better off with predator unless you roll like crazy. If expose was action-less (holy **** it'd be nice) you could at least combo it with a TL and then stim it up.

I personally wouldn't mess with cobra's dice by trying to add to the number. what's wrong with a "mere" five dice?

well i think you'd have to stim before any dice rolls if i remember the card right and it leaves you stressed. Also if you want maximum stress you could EI TL, then expose, then start of combat Stim leaving you double stressed, but with 6 dice and any eyeball as a evade or hit respectively. with a TL

someone above me beat me to it....

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

Talonbane don't need Prockets ... btw.

But Graz still gets the +1 green even in R1

You're right, Talonbane doesn't need it. My point was that Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets will roll the same amount of attack dice as Graz with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets because they have the same agility when attacking. That's all I was trying to get at.

True, Graz gets the +1 green when defending (even at range 1), but you can't use that with Proton Rockets which only checks your agility value when you attack.

Or am I missing something and you're not talking about increasing Proton Rockets' dice with Graz's ability?

Its about attacking head-on

While Cobra Commander is vulnerable in r1-2, Graz profits from his ability with +1 die and +1 die from stealth.

His ability helps to protect from losing the stealth in the joust and so he has a chance to attack with 5 dice with prockets.

Graz with Stealth and Prockets? What do you think?

Not really any better than Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets. Graz only gets the bonus while defending, so he wouldn't have any additional agility when attacking.

Talonbane don't need Prockets ... btw.

But Graz still gets the +1 green even in R1

You're right, Talonbane doesn't need it. My point was that Talonbane with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets will roll the same amount of attack dice as Graz with Stealth Device and Proton Rockets because they have the same agility when attacking. That's all I was trying to get at.

True, Graz gets the +1 green when defending (even at range 1), but you can't use that with Proton Rockets which only checks your agility value when you attack.

Or am I missing something and you're not talking about increasing Proton Rockets' dice with Graz's ability?

Its about attacking head-on

While Cobra Commander is vulnerable in r1-2, Graz profits from his ability with +1 die and +1 die from stealth.

His ability helps to protect from losing the stealth in the joust and so he has a chance to attack with 5 dice with prockets.

Okay, got it! Thanks, that makes more sense.

You should send Serissu in to help with that.

expose is almost never worth it the raw number of dice will basically be countered by the lack of dice modifications, meaning you're almost always better off with predator unless you roll like crazy. If expose was action-less (holy **** it'd be nice) you could at least combo it with a TL and then stim it up.

I personally wouldn't mess with cobra's dice by trying to add to the number. what's wrong with a "mere" five dice?

I ain't no mathematician, but I'd imagine that the amount of value of each additional die beyond 3 or 4 is exponentially greater, especially modifiable dice because at that point, it's very rare to be countering with the same number of green dice. But I dunno. Just figured he gets the benefit of "keeping" 3 evade at R3, and at R1 he would only use it as a finishing move.