The following is a table showing the percentage chance for hits and crits on each die rolled.

Modification |None |Focus|T. Lock|F+TL

Crit Chance |12.5%|12.5%|18.75%|15.625%

Hit Chance |37.5%|62.5%|56.25%|78.125%

Total Chance|50% |75% |75% |93.75%

Note: The Crit% for T.Lock assumes both focus and blank results are bring rerolled. The Crit% for F+TL assumes only blank results are being rerolled.

Now getting a Focus and/or a TL cost 1 action each to obtain barring special circumstances and anything which grants you an additional action is going to cost you points. Even in those circumstances the ability used still costs you in points. Now your first action, which ever it may be, will increase your total chance per die for either a hit or crit by 50% from it's base chance. Your second action will experience a diminished return only improving an additional 25% on the already boosted roll. As such I suspect trying to get the second action may be a waste of points. The 75% chance for a hit or crit result may be more efficient in points than attempting to further modify the roll.

What do you guys think?

It depends on how easy getting the 2nd action is. Dash with PTL and Kyle? Oh heck yes.

Wedge PTL.

Guri?

FCS on Phantom, heck yes.

But you might be right about the futility of paying for more.

Here's a case your thoughts support:

I never take Targeting Computer on my Ints. I feel Ints are damage over time and do much better with just Stealth/Hull and Auto.

Even soontir imo does not benefit from TC more than he benefits from auto or hull.

Also, just a question Chris, but you've posted some controversial topics about basics of the game... How much Xwing have you played?

Not that you're wrong or that I'm accusing you of not knowing what you're talking about. But if you have some insights or experience we could benefit from it would be nice to know what angle you're coming from.

Dead things don't shoot back. Go for the focus+target lock

Also, just a question Chris, but you've posted some controversial topics about basics of the game... How much Xwing have you played?

Not that you're wrong or that I'm accusing you of not knowing what you're talking about. But if you have some insights or experience we could benefit from it would be nice to know what angle you're coming from.

Also I should clarify that the contention isn't that there aren't good options, but that the points may be better spent elsewhere. For example if you choose to take upgrades centered around stressing or giving out ion tokens you may be able to get better benefit by denying your opponent actions and shots. I thought of this largely because we see a lot of lists containing naked low PS pilots which obviously forgo the benefit of Focus + TL in favor of having an additional ship instead. These are some of the most effective lists at the moment.

Also, just a question Chris, but you've posted some controversial topics about basics of the game... How much Xwing have you played?

Not that you're wrong or that I'm accusing you of not knowing what you're talking about. But if you have some insights or experience we could benefit from it would be nice to know what angle you're coming from.

I have played a fair bit. I simply try to avoid posting topics where the opinions of the community are likely to be unanimous. I see no point in posting if I already know what the response I am going to get will be.

Also I should clarify that the contention isn't that there aren't good options, but that the points may be better spent elsewhere. For example if you choose to take upgrades centered around stressing or giving out ion tokens you may be able to get better benefit by denying your opponent actions and shots. I thought of this largely because we see a lot of lists containing naked low PS pilots which obviously forgo the benefit of Focus + TL in favor of having an additional ship instead. These are some of the most effective lists at the moment.

I agree with your analysis. And provided the example I think merits more thought.

However, you might wish to position your points so that you consider the counterpoints. This way the rest of us don't have to spend the time to bring them up. Especially the obvious ones.

Tournament level Dash with PTL and Kyle spends points to gain TL and F and really effectively uses it.

So does Corran with FCS.

Chiraneau gets it with his ability and taking TL into EI: Expose.

Whisper gets it with FCS.

The moderately large amount of tournaments wave4-6 has enough data to seriously undermine a blanket statement that TL + F is not worth paying points for.

You are looking at it wrong. Don't look at the numbers for an individual dice, you need to multiply the probability for each dice.

You are really looking for the probability of getting the maximum number of hits + crits results. Compare the number for focus or TL to Focus and TL and you will see a big increase in value (approximately 40% better on three dice).

So the answer is a resounding yes.

Sorry I'm kind of confused here, are you asking about if paying for an upgrade that allows taking 2 actions is worth it specifically PTL? Or are you asking if paying for an upgrade like targeting computer is worth it in order to gain the TL action? Or are you asking if waiting the extra turn so you can use both a focus and TL is worth it? I think your talking about the upgrades tho which depends on your ships and set up. However I think it really depends on how many dice your rolling and what your results are. Set ups that will be throwing 3-4 dice attacks consistently will probably benefit more from the added action economy. Set ups where only 2 dice or less are being thrown probably won't see as much bang for your buck. For instance i wouldn't be putting PTL on an awing for the focus/ TL dual action, I would be using it for focus/boosts capitalizing on mobility or focus/evade on defense. Same for tie fighters, I don't think I would pay the points for targeting computer just to take a TL on 2 dice attacks but on an interceptor I MAY consider it. I say a big "may" because right now interceptors need auto thrusters to survive and that means tacking on more points to an already expensive ship so it may not be worth it. So in summary I think it just depends on your set up mainly, sometimes it's an excellent option but other times it may be a terrible choice.

While the returns do diminish with TL+F compared to just having F or TL, you also have to take the other side of the equation in consideration. The more hits you can statistically secure, the higher your odds are to actually inflict damage to your oppnonent after evade dice has been rolled.

Now this is a gross oversimplification, but bear with me. Let's say that you have a F or TL when attacking, which in this hypothetical case gives a statistical hit chance of 2 full hits. Number of dice rolled doesn't matter here, just the net result. Let's also assume that your opponent will statistically roll 2 full evades, through some combination of abilities, focus and/or evade tokens. This equals no damage dealt.

Let's now assume the same scenario, however you have both TL and F, which, for the sake of this example, will net you 3 statistical hits. The enemy will still only get two evades. Profit!

Basically, it's not all about how high your damage potential goes, but also stacking the odds so much in your favour that even the best effort of your enemy will be for naught. This in turn translates to a very high value being placed on abilities and combos that will maximise your actions. In general I would say that the price paid to receive that advantage is worth it, but there are so many other factors that matters as well. Your list, the ships and pilots you use and your playstyle will make a big difference on much value you can get from action maximising abilites. In some list they are worth it, in others not so much.

As a frequent user of vessery I can say yes it is, mix it with a HLC and you'll inflict real hurt.

You paid for the option to get a second action in your squad points. The only reason not to use it on the attack is because you've already rolled enough to guarantee a kill or you are saving the token/stress for something else.

I think your math is assuming that you're shooting at a decimator at range 1-2. If I'm shooting at most targets I don't want 2 hits. I want 3.

You are looking at it wrong. Don't look at the numbers for an individual dice, you need to multiply the probability for each dice.

You are really looking for the probability of getting the maximum number of hits + crits results. Compare the number for focus or TL to Focus and TL and you will see a big increase in value (approximately 40% better on three dice).

So the answer is a resounding yes.

Let's put it this way... If you are rolling 3 dice for example the base 50% means you should average 1.5 hits per roll. Which will leave you usually getting 1-2 since obviously you can't roll a 1.5. Once you factor in a focus or target lock this increases to 2.25 which means you are going to be rolling 2-3 on average with a slightly higher percentage going to 2. Factoring in both a focus and TL you get an average roll of 2.8125 which still leaves you either 2-3 most of the time except slightly favoring the 3. So whether you get that second action out or not unless you are rolling 4 or more dice it seems rather insignificant statistically as in either case you are only making that 3rd hit result marginally more likely to occur.

So whether you get that second action out or not unless you are rolling 4 or more dice it seems rather insignificant statistically as in either case you are only making that 3rd hit result marginally more likely to occur.

You can't look at it in a vacuum, you need to consider the defender's defense rolls as well. The above only works against a 0 AGI ship.

For example, consider a 3-dice attack vs 3 defense dice. Lets assume that the defender has focus.

Average damage is:

3 v 3 + F = 0.30 average damage

3 + F v 3 + F = 0.63 average damage

I like how MJ always takes something that seems obvious or intuitive and wraps it up in tidy quantifiable analysis.

So whether you get that second action out or not unless you are rolling 4 or more dice it seems rather insignificant statistically as in either case you are only making that 3rd hit result marginally more likely to occur.

You can't look at it in a vacuum, you need to consider the defender's defense rolls as well. The above only works against a 0 AGI ship.

For example, consider a 3-dice attack vs 3 defense dice. Lets assume that the defender has focus.

Average damage is:

3 v 3 + F = 0.30 average damage

3 + F v 3 + F = 0.63 average damage

3 + F + TL v 3 + F = 0.99 average damage

Specific numbers will obviously vary depending on the number of dice on each side, and the action economy of the defender. But the TL;DR is that F+TL is always appreciably better than just focus.

You can run some examples yourself here.

http://xwingdice.com/

I made no assumptions about what the defender's agility was going to be nor about what attack the attacker had. I evaluated it on a per die basis so people could easily extrapolate it to their own scenarios. Nothing more. You are assuming people are going to use their focus on their defense roll which is ineffecient. A 3 agility ship will on average only roll 1 evade. If they spend their focus on their defense then they don't have it to use on their return fire which acts to your benefit as they can only use it against one of your attacks.

Also does this not validate what I am saying? If your opponent has chosen to use his focus on defense he has done so believing he is better served using it there than on his attack. Ergo he is eschewing a Focus + Target Lock in favor of something else.

Also does this not validate what I am saying? If your opponent has chosen to use his focus on defense he has done so believing he is better served using it there than on his attack. Ergo he is eschewing a Focus + Target Lock in favor of something else.

That depends entirely on the game state, what ships are involved, how many shields/hull they have remaining and just what damage they avoid by spending the focus at that given moment. Like MJ said, you can't look at it in a vaccuum.

All I am saying is that in the 3 agility +focus defense scenario which is better... Focus + TL or auto blaster? As was explained the 3 attack + Focus + TL still had only an average of 0.99 damage making it through. That is 6 shots to take down that Defender not counting for misses. Go for the auto blaster though and yea sure you got a short range, but I would take the range issue over trying to punch my way through a brick wall with my bare knuckles.

Chris, are you asking questions to try and learn, or are you just intent on arguing? My impression at least, of your reply is that it is more of the latter... I don't have the time or energy for the latter.

I made no assumptions about what the defender's agility was going to be nor about what attack the attacker had.

Right, which is why I said this:

You can't look at it in a vacuum, you need to consider the defender's defense rolls as well.

As was explained the 3 attack + Focus + TL still had only an average of 0.99 damage making it through. That is 6 shots to take down that Defender not counting for misses.

That's the average damage numbers, so it does indeed include misses. Although that still doesn't tell you the expected number of shots that it will take to destroy a ship. If you want to get a better handle on this, then read up on "probability distribution function" [edit: or "probability density function"] and "convolution".

The other thing that you need to consider is that in a single game you aren't making enough attacks for the rolls to average out the way that they are suppossed to. Having TL+Focus minimizes the number of rounds that you throw 4 dice and come away with only one or even no hit results.

That being said, my lists don't always have a way to reroll and focus on the same attack. When they do I find myself complaining about how much the dice hate me a lot less.

Chris R, MJ has done seriously stupendous work for Math and X-wing in this community, and speaks usually peacefully and eloquently. Please consider asking more silent questions to yourself before attempting refutes.

As a frequent user of vessery I can say yes it is, mix it with a HLC and you'll inflict real hurt.

I was reading the thread thinking 'Vessery has been linking up with Weapons Engineer Kenkirk, and they've been taking out B-Wings in one round of shooting'.

You nailed it. Completely agree.

If you're shooting at a falcon with 3po and an evade token or an IG/interceptor at R3 with evade+autothrusters 2 hits just doesn't do anything, at all, ever.

Xwing is a game of maximising one aspect. Either number of attacks (swarms) or quality of attacks (elite named pilots).

The first strategy hopes to strip tokens of the enemy and then overcome his unmodified green dice with another attack. The second hopes to overcome the opponents defences in one overpowering attack.

The first strategy excels in the early stages of the game while the second is better in the endgame.

Defense has a likewise division of strategies between massive hitpoints (BBBBZ and other swarms) and damage reduction (green dice, E/F tokens, autothrusters, 3po).

TVBoy's mass vs mobility theory envelops both strategies and explains them pretty well;

https://community.fantasyflightgames.com/index.php?/topic/176300-mass-vs-mobility/

My dice are usually so cold I need all the help I can get, math and statistics be damned

My dice are usually so cold I need all the help I can get, math and statistics be damned

Then you have caught the gaze of ERIS, you must appease her and the dice gods by the feasting on cheesy snacks and the imbibing of much soda!

The following is a table showing the percentage chance for hits and crits on each die rolled...

Now getting a Focus and/or a TL cost 1 action each to obtain barring special circumstances and anything which grants you an additional action is going to cost you points. Even in those circumstances the ability used still costs you in points.

You're actually asking two different questions here: the first is what F+TL is worth in an objective sense, and the second is what it's worth in a relative sense.

You're right that there are diminishing returns when you consider just the attack dice, although it's a relatively small effect. But you're not considering the variance in the dice rolls, which shrinks quite a bit when you go from having either focus or target lock to having both tokens.

And that's why--as MajorJuggler has already pointed out--the effect of considering defense dice is to improve F+TL with respect to either action alone. The effect is pretty pronounced, and when you look at the metagame as a whole, the answer is definitely "yes, it's worth it."

But when you start talking about the costs associated with picking up that second action, you have to consider the opportunity costs. Push the Limit is an easy way to get focus+target lock; what else could you buy for 3 points? And the answer is that there's actually very little that gives you an offensive benefit as large as the marginal effect of F+TL over either action alone--even without considering any of the issues MJ brought up.

Taking that second action improves the average result of your attack dice by 0.1875 per attack die, or 0.56 if you're rolling 3 dice. Go ahead and spend a few minutes looking for an offensive upgrade in the same price range with as large an effect; you won't find one except for Darth Vader, who comes with a substantial drawback.

So, in summary: the answer is yes, Focus + Target Lock is worth doing, regardless of which of your questions I'm actually answering.