We've learned a lot about the value of ships, and the output they need to achieve to become viable in tournament play, with much influence from the mathwing crowd and major juggler's jousting value contribution.
It's time to begin focusing on the value of our upgrade cards, and how we can decide, not only when a card can be valued more than another, but how much work any specific upgrade card needs to do in order to be worthwhile.
1 How does the additional cost of an upgrade card affect the jousting value of any given ship?
This appears fairly straight forward, and perhaps Mr. Juggler would be kind enough as to do some of this work for us - The easiest thing to do - is assume the card does nothing - and look at the additional point cost, and how that affects defensive and offensive efficiency. For example, given the efficiency of a rookie pilot (88.3), that costs 23 points (the value of a red squadron with an 87.1%) and we get a quick estimate that our 2 point upgrade needs to increase our jousting value by about 1 percent - a little more (or less) than that, because that doesn't take in the +2 P.S. of the red squadron - which can be good or bad, depending on the meta. Compare this to the larger, nearly 4% difference that those 2 points make on a tie bomber.
if we accept that value as our minimum acceptable value for an upgrade card, we have a guide, anything that does at least that much is probably ok, not great as it's not giving us more, but not terrible, as it's not taking away. Then, anything that's doing more than that is worth more and more.
This could start to become quite complicated - as we really need to value each upgrade with each ship...
2 How do we value the cards themselves?
One way is by valuing damage another by valuing actions- Almost all upgrade cards affect damage, either by reducing incoming damage (Sensor Jammer, Elusiveness, Adrenaline rush) or by increasing outgoing damage (Expose, opportunist, adrenaline rush, predator) - Wait, adrenaline rush? Yes - this card allows us to take an action after k-turning, that can be a focus for attack or defense, the action has a value, and we can take a shortcut here, as most actions can be parlayed into damage! A focus action gives us a little extra damage on an attack, depending on our attack dice of course.
we can take a few shortcuts here - and temporarily avoid the jousting value math that could be done for these cards, for back of the envelope, quick and dirty assumptions...*
a: Damage prevented is worth Damage given.
b:1 damage is worth 2 points. (Chewbacca / Seismic Charge)
b addendum , Crits are worth 1.2 damage - and thus 2.4 points (so hit -> crit = .4 points)
c: gaining Stress denies an enemy action, but doesn't affect us - removing a stress gives us an action (Because we plan for it, they dont)
d: a single Focus / Target lock actions are worth .75 damage -> 1.5 points.
e: synergy doesn't exist
f: damage has a static value through the game
g: Some cards will be normalized to the chance that they come into affect - assuming the condition - for example, determination has an 8/33 chance of blocking a pilot crit, (if no damage cards have yet been drawn, and you are actually facing a crit)
This value holds for a single instance of the upgrade cards benefit, and we will double the value, as most ships have trouble surviving a second round when under heavy fire. Single Use upgrades will be marked with a !
This is going to be ok for most upgrade cards that can be translated into damage, either via action or by actual damage - but it's not going to tell us much about the value of things like "daredevil", the "R2" astromech, or Veteran Instincts. (Note that we could solve for those benefits with Juggler's math as he assigns values to colors and maneuvers) Draw their fire is another special case, as it moves a crit, but doesn't cancel it - These cards are going to be dropped from the quick list.
So - Quick and dirtily.... Values in a vacuum that can be backtracked to damage - again, multiply this value by the number of uses that you get out of it !
the goal of this, is to figure out how many activations are required to get roughly "good" use out of a card, at least until we integrate these into jousting values...
Talents
! Adrenaline Rush = 1.5 points (2 if used for evade)
Calculation = .4 points
Determination = .6 points.
Bodyguard = .75 points **
Elusiveness = 1 point
Expert Handling = 1.5 points
Wingman = 1.5 points
Intimidation = 1 point
lone wolf = .7 points (per round, with 1 attack and 1 defense, value goes up for additional defense rolls)
Marksmanship = .4 points - per crit that goes through
Outmaneuver = 1 point
Predator = 1 point (per die rerolled)
Push the limit = 1.5 points (2 for evade) per action gained.
Ruthlessness = 2 points per extra damage
Expose = .25 points (Though that's assuming an extra action, if you are losing your action to this - it's actually -1.25 points! ouch!)
Opportunist = 1 point
(space reserved)
Crew /Droids /Systems / Illicits /Modifications /Torpedos /Missiles /Bombs /Cannons /Turrets / etc)
So - You need Predator to process about 3 dice ( 2-3 attacks to be doing it's share of lifting, while you need marksmanship to happen about 7.5 times to be doing it's share of work!) Calculation is assumed to be used when you otherwise would've gained no better benefit from focus on attack.
Ruthlessness has the chance to be really strong - but in practice it's tough to pull off - and you'll likely see it once per game - As you can see, Synergy isn't being counted - and it's really possible to make Marksmanship work at a higher rate (via Ten Numb - where suddenly it's worth about 2.4 points per range 1 attack..... ) You can combine effects and see how they work together. -
The Challenge now
So the next step is to work out an average number of triggers of each upgrade card per game - and get a good read on how much damage is worth in most circumstances, and then integrate those values into the base cost and offensive / defensive efficiency of each ship - giving you a good look at how they actually affect each pilot in the game.
This sounds like a programming challenge - as running through each combination is just bonkers and time consuming.
*Now you can make cases for focus target lock being worth more with higher attack, and lower attack, and the type of weapon being used - etc... Likewise you can value hull and shield more at high AGI than Low - You can make all kinds of assumption of position ETC, and you can solve for different things - Say ok, 1 hull is 1 damage prevention is 2 points, but is really only worth 1/3rd of that at AGI 1, but is absolutely worth that at AGI 3..
BodyGuard must prevent 2 damage to be worth it - overcoming the cost of the focus spent to activate it - additionally, bodyguards value goes up as the number of ships shooting at the bodyguarded ship goes up.