I was thinking about the BBBBZ analysis you guys did, and Bob mentioning how much double HLC lists hate that list because of the 8 hit points. I started thinking: Is it actually a good idea to split fire the first turn? Here's what I'm thinking
Turn 1.) Fire first HLC at a target
-if the first HLC does 4 damage, you go ahead and concentrate fire, because you retain a chance of killing that ship with the second HLC
-if the first HLC does 3 damage, you go after a second target with the second HLC
-if the first HLC does 1-2 damage, you concentrate on the first target to make sure you can kill it on the next turn
Turn 2.) If you split fire, now you have the option to concentrate on either damaged target, so the other player doesn't have an obvious bait ship, and you don't have an obvious target to for the opposing squad to plan around.
This is obviously board and squad dependent. If you've got FCS HLCs, you can switch targets as well. If you've got Predator HLCs, you can change targets on the fly to get a pretty high likelihood of 4 hits per HLC (before greens). Also, if you don't think you'll be able to concentrate fire next turn, you want to concentrate fire on the first turn so you can finish the target off with a single shot in turn 2.
This is probably too much of a corner case to merit too much consideration, but there's times it might be meaningful.
Edited by Biophysical