OK, but you still haven't explained how 3/8 x 8 = 3 doesn't apply conceptionally.

The X-wing does catch up eventually, but the likelihood of surviving that long is extremely rare. Here's a couple pictures that I just whipped up to illustrate.https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_FtpUvAFB8peTF2WU1rNVJXT1U/view?usp=sharinghttps://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_FtpUvAFB8pR0N1QTl3VW9pQkE/view?usp=sharing

The X-wing catches up at 9 hits, but you're talking a 98.15% chance of being dead (B-wing) vs 97.95% chance of being dead (X-wing).

I would like to understand, but you still haven't explained it. I see how the X-Wing catches up after 9 hits in your chart, but you haven't explained how your chart deviates from the simple application of 3/8 x 8 = 3.

The short version is that if you roll 8 defense dice you might come up with 3 evades--that's the most likely result, anyway, and ththe average. But 37% of the time it'll be less (0-2 evades), and 35% of the time it'll be more (4-8 evades). And if you throw attack dice in there, too, there's even more variation in the result of an attack against a B-wing.

So if you want to know how long a ship will survive, you have to go deeper than just looking at the average result.

How can 2 evade dice give you a chance > 0 for 4-8 evades?

For the X-Wing, I think it should be 39% 0 evades, 47% 1 evade, 14% 2 evades. For the B-Wing, it would be 62.5% for 0 evades and 37.5% for 1 evade. I want to understand this system, but, despite the fact that I dropped out of high school, I'm starting to suspect it's flawed.

Edit: My math was flawed at first, but I think I righted it.

Basically, sometimes you roll 2 evades when you only needed one, so the "average" numbers will be wrong. Also, the B-wing also has a larger proportion of shields so it also lasts a little longer just from crit mitigation.

I think people cling to the jousting numbers far too much. Jousting values don't really hold up and proof of that is the completely absent Defender from competitive play (the best jouster in the game can K-turn and joust all day long). I thought I would point out something though, since there have been many new players to the game that have never experienced X-Wing prior to wave 4.

In 2013, Paul Heaver won the Worlds tournament with 2 generic X-Wings. At the time, that was wave 3, which excluded S&V (nothing there threatens the quality of the X-Wing), Decimators (great in every respect), YT-2400 (only Dash), Phantoms (most feared since the TIE swarm), Z-95's (excellent Rebel filler), Defenders (also not popular), and the E-Wing (also not popular). Out of the list of things that are successful since then, only IG-88, Decimator, Dash, and the Z-95 are any real competitor to quality, half of those can't be flown by rebels anyway.

This game has changed a lot since 2012, especially in the options available and play styles played. Every new product released is an opportunity to re-evaluate existing products for their viability. Most people suffer from Cult of the New, and that leaves a huge opportunity for surprise.

????

1) Paul didn't run 2 generic X-wings, one of them was Biggs who has arguably the best ability in the game.

2) The cost efficiency numbers explain exactly why the Defender is a horrible jouster. It has roughly the same stat cost efficiency as the better turreted ships PS adjusted. Turret > white K --> generic Defender dead on arrival. Predictable by math but not by the play testers or designers.

The math is very much alive and well. It doesn't really matter to me if everyone understands it or at least agrees in principle, it is what it is.

So just trust you? I'd rather learn something instead.

The math is very much alive and well. It doesn't really matter to me if everyone understands it or at least agrees in principle, it is what it is.

So just trust you? I'd rather learn something instead.

Nobody is stopping you. :-)

14 pages?

14 pages?

Not too weird really.

The game is named after the ship.

A ship you hardly ever see in competitive game which is a shame. (IMO)

The only way I use an X-Wing nowadays is with Luke.)

(VI/stressbot and flechette with 2 warthogs and a Proto-A. Fun.)

The math is very much alive and well. It doesn't really matter to me if everyone understands it or at least agrees in principle, it is what it is.

So just trust you? I'd rather learn something instead.

Nobody is stopping you. :-)

Can you explain the math? In school (before I dropped out), my teachers always made me show the steps, even when I intuitively knew the answer. They wanted to know how I arrived at the answer. I'd like to know how you arrived at your answer. Unfortunately, you might have to explain some of it instead of just throwing a bunch of equations at the screen.

You do realize that "throwing a bunch of equations at the screen" is exactly how real math is proven, right? Of course, I doubt you'd understand it since most people with an above-HS level of education can understand statistical probability.

Can you explain the math? In school (before I dropped out), my teachers always made me show the steps, even when I intuitively knew the answer. They wanted to know how I arrived at the answer. I'd like to know how you arrived at your answer. Unfortunately, you might have to explain some of it instead of just throwing a bunch of equations at the screen.

...Have you not read the thread where the jousting numbers are posted? The math is explained in incredible, painstaking detail.

If you're unable to read / comprehend the equations because you dropped out of school, that's your own problem.

You do realize that "throwing a bunch of equations at the screen" is exactly how real math is proven, right? Of course, I doubt you'd understand it since most people with an above-HS level of education can understand statistical probability.

I want to know why he's applying certain equations. I have an above-HS level of education, I just don't have a HS diploma.

Can you explain the math? In school (before I dropped out), my teachers always made me show the steps, even when I intuitively knew the answer. They wanted to know how I arrived at the answer. I'd like to know how you arrived at your answer. Unfortunately, you might have to explain some of it instead of just throwing a bunch of equations at the screen.

...Have you not read the thread where the jousting numbers are posted? The math is explained in incredible, painstaking detail.

If you're unable to read / comprehend the equations because you dropped out of school, that's your own problem.

This isn't about jousting.

You're right, it is my problem if I can't understand something. Guess how that's solved? Reaching out for help from someone who knows more than me.

PS: why do you highlight everything in white? I'd show you how to avoid doing that, but I guess it's your problem.

You do realize that "throwing a bunch of equations at the screen" is exactly how real math is proven, right? Of course, I doubt you'd understand it since most people with an above-HS level of education can understand statistical probability.

I've got a degree from a top 10 worldwide university. My degree is in a math heavy field (political science). I barely understand the math MJ uses. Don't be insulting to someone who didn't take as many math classes as you did.

The math is very much alive and well. It doesn't really matter to me if everyone understands it or at least agrees in principle, it is what it is.

So just trust you? I'd rather learn something instead.

Nobody is stopping you. :-)

they don't teach math anymore ?

Granted, I forgot everything calculus and backwards once I got into college

Rogue Squadron Pilot: 24-25 points (using royal guard int as basis)

PS 6 generic, EPT

Rogue Squadron Title: 2 points

You have the EPT of every other friendly ship in play with this title in addition to your EPT

T-65B Title: 0 points

When you equip a modification, reduce its cost by (2-3) squad points

Fire-Linked Cannons Modification: 3 points

After you make an attack, you may make a second 2 dice attack against the defender

You can choose between 3 overlapping beefy elite pilots or some generics with cheap mods

3 PS 6 x-wings all with predator, PtL and expert handling? Toss some R2s in there and you got a stew going!

most people with an above-HS level of education can understand statistical probability.

Was this a typo MF? Because the math that Maj. Juggler is using is waaay beyond most people with university level education, much less high school.

most people with an above-HS level of education can understand statistical probability.

Was this a typo MF? Because the math that Maj. Juggler is using is waaay beyond most people with university level education, much less high school.

I just want scripture translated into lingua franca so the people can see the truth themselves rather than just trusting the priesthood.

Edit: And not be condemned for heresy.

most people with an above-HS level of education can understand statistical probability.

Was this a typo MF? Because the math that Maj. Juggler is using is waaay beyond most people with university level education, much less high school.

I just want scripture translated into lingua franca so the people can see the truth themselves rather than just trusting the priesthood.

This is a little hyperbolic, innit? MJ isn't hiding any of his equations. They're all open in the MathWing thread. Asking him to take the time to personally tutor you through every step is a bit much given his obligations elsewhere.

Further why is this not "lingua franca" ?

That's a pretty helpful and clear explanation.

Broadly speaking, yes. But I wish he'd walk us through the steps to arrive at the conclusion, explaining the equations and why he used them. Anything short of that is simply faith.

Ok. So read this thread. Or, more specifically, this post (linked to in the first thread I mentioned.) If you have questions, go to google and work through the steps needed. MJ has provided all of his information. If you want lingua franca beyond this, you need to be willing to translate it yourself.

Ok. So read this thread. Or, more specifically, this post (linked to in the first thread I mentioned.) If you have questions, go to google and work through the steps needed. MJ has provided all of his information. If you want lingua franca beyond this, you need to be willing to translate it yourself.

Except I wasn't asking you. Why are you answering for him? Maybe he wants to explain it further and you're being presumptuous and wrong.

In my calculation, there are 3 evades on an 8-sided green die, so there's a 3/8 or .375 or 37.5% chance of evading per die. For the one-die B-Wing, it's either 37.5% to evade or 5/8 (the number of eyeballs/blanks) or 62.5% to not evade.

For the X-WIng it's slightly more complicated because you have to consider the total of both dice. You can have:

A. No evade (.625) and no evade (.625)

B. No evade (.625) and evade (.375)

C. Evade (.375 and no evade (.625)

D. Evade (.375) and evade (.375)

You multiple the factors of A to result in ~39% for no evades whatsoever. Do the same for B (23.4%) and C (23.4%), but since they are the same result (one evade) in different combinations, you add them together to get ~47%. Lastly, we do the same for D to arrive at 14%.

MJ is brilliant. I get it. Way smarter than me. I won't understand his level of math. But bring it back to Earth to a level that the layperson can reasonably understand it. I don't think asking that deserves the degree of criticism I've received.

Expensive? Nah, just realize the original designers made it 21 points to prevent five being used in a single squad.

Has anyone ever flown 5 X-wings in a house rule and observed if it's too overpowered? I'm not sure what's so terrifying about it.

FFG doesn't like that many 3+ damage sources in a 100 pt game; the overall red die pool for 5 X Wings isn't really very impressive (15 dice), but it's a maximum of 3 per attack. That's a big deal when shooting at targets with low agility values.

If 5 X lists were possible, I think they would be at least as over-represented in the meta as BBBBZ currently is.

Havent heard of any FFG statement saying that they dont want that many 3 dice ships. Where does that come from?

Also, you can get 5 interceptors (alphas) in 100. 5 Xs wouldnt be the first list to be able to do it. And 4 ship lists with 12+ red dice are easily possible. I dont see it as a stretch.

5x Mangler Scyks is also now a thing. Significantly less HP than 5X's, but extra agility and the valuable Barrel Roll action.

BBBBZ has almost as many dice, a few more HP, and Barrel Rolls.

It's clear that X-Wings were originally priced to keep that fifth one out of the squad, but the game has matured past the point where that could reasonably be considered OP.

Edit: I kind of overlooked the potential of the X-Wings to roll 20 dice at Range 1, while the Manglers are locked at 15, but I think the conclusion stands.

Ok. So read this thread. Or, more specifically, this post (linked to in the first thread I mentioned.) If you have questions, go to google and work through the steps needed. MJ has provided all of his information. If you want lingua franca beyond this, you need to be willing to translate it yourself.

Except I wasn't asking you. Why are you answering for him? Maybe he wants to explain it further and you're being presumptuous and wrong.

In my calculation, there are 3 evades on an 8-sided green die, so there's a 3/8 or .375 or 37.5% chance of evading per die. For the one-die B-Wing, it's either 37.5% to evade or 5/8 (the number of eyeballs/blanks) or 62.5% to not evade.

For the X-WIng it's slightly more complicated because you have to consider the total of both dice. You can have:

A. No evade (.625) and no evade (.625)

B. No evade (.625) and evade (.375)

C. Evade (.375 and no evade (.625)

D. Evade (.375) and evade (.375)

You multiple the factors of A to result in ~39% for no evades whatsoever. Do the same for B (23.4%) and C (23.4%), but since they are the same result (one evade) in different combinations, you add them together to get ~47%. Lastly, we do the same for D to arrive at 14%.

MJ is brilliant. I get it. Way smarter than me. I won't understand his level of math. But bring it back to Earth to a level that the layperson can reasonably understand it. I don't think asking that deserves the degree of criticism I've received.

Look fine, I'll bow out. You asked for explanations for the formulas and I sent you to the explanations for the formulas, but if that's not what you want then I can't help you.

But first let me say this: I don't think you're dumb and I think everyone ragging on you for dropping out of school was way out line. Schooling does not automatically equal intelligence or capability and I get that. That said, you're being more than a tad hyperbolic in your posts here. You bring up the rhetoric of the reformation as if MJ and those who understand his formulas are some secret priesthood holding the game back (how could they even do this?), when the rationales and numbers are all publicly available. They may not be at the level of a layperson, but I don't see why they need to be. A layperson can interpret the results. A layperson can also form his or her own opinion about the ships, present their own formula that can be "reasonably understood," or struggle to learn to read the equations. These all seem reasonable. Just don't pretend that the threads already explaining the math don't exist or that they're somehow designed to keep you down. If you want to learn, do the reading and learn. That's how scholarship works.

I don't think MJ asked for it or wanted it, but his conclusions are considered infallible and are referred to often by people who don't understand the math. The Bible was available, but few outside the priesthood understood Latin. The analogy is apt.

I took a moment to explain my calculations above, both why and how I came to those conclusions. I don't think it's too much to ask--and for crying out loud, I'm just asking--for the advanced math MJ uses to be brought into light in the same way. "Tough, that's your problem--go look it up" is the defensive, knee-jerk reaction I've received instead of the help I'm sure others would also appreciate. I hope you're never in a position where you want to learn something that's beyond your current education level. If you do, eat your own medicine.

Edit: If I had the secret to life but couldn't make it accessible to others, what good is knowing it?

Let me ask you something else, BaronFel. Do you fully understand all the mathematical formulas and why they were chosen and how they're applied in MJ's treatise? If so, are you capable of explaining it if you had the desire and time?

MJ isn't hiding any of his equations. They're all open in the MathWing thread. Asking him to take the time to personally tutor you through every step is a bit much given his obligations elsewhere.

Pretty much that - if I tried to explain every nuance to everyone on the internet who had a question about it, well, I wouldn't have any time left.

In my calculation, there are 3 evades on an 8-sided green die, so there's a 3/8 or .375 or 37.5% chance of evading per die. For the one-die B-Wing, it's either 37.5% to evade or 5/8 (the number of eyeballs/blanks) or 62.5% to not evade.

For the X-WIng it's slightly more complicated because you have to consider the total of both dice. You can have:

A. No evade (.625) and no evade (.625)

B. No evade (.625) and evade (.375)

C. Evade (.375 and no evade (.625)

D. Evade (.375) and evade (.375)

You multiple the factors of A to result in ~39% for no evades whatsoever. Do the same for B (23.4%) and C (23.4%), but since they are the same result (one evade) in different combinations, you add them together to get ~47%. Lastly, we do the same for D to arrive at 14%.

OK, so, as alluded to above I can't tutor everyone on every step, but the basic premise is that you need to compare every possibility of the attack dice vs every possibility of defense dice. So looking at straight averages isn't exactly accurate.

For example.

Lets just look at 2 attack dice with focus vs 2 defense dice with no modifiers.

The probability of a single attack die rolling a hit, crit, or eyeball is 6/8. So you get a 2-dice probability of:

0 hits: 0.0625

1 hit: 0.3750

2 hits: 0.5625

Incidentally you can use a nifty tool called "convolution" to keep iterating this for any number of dice rolled.

Now on defense, there is a 5/8 chance of not getting an evade, and 3/8 chance of getting an evade, so you get a 2-dice probability of:

0 evades: 0.3906

1 evade: 0.4688

2 evades: 0.1406

So now you need to compare every attack possibility vs every defense possibility and weight them.

evades

hits 0 1 2

0 0.0244 0.0293 0.0088

1 0.1465 0.1758 0.0527

2 0.2197 0.2637 0.0791

From here you can calculate the average damage. The main point is that there are several cells in the above where you roll more evades than hits, so going just by the averages doesn't work. Otherwise you could argue that rolling 3 unmodified defense dice vs unmodified 2 attack dice would never do any damage, and obviously that is not the case.

I don't think MJ asked for it or wanted it, but his conclusions are considered infallible and are referred to often by people who don't understand the math. The Bible was available, but few outside the priesthood understood Latin. The analogy is apt.

I took a moment to explain my calculations above, both why and how I came to those conclusions. I don't think it's too much to ask--and for crying out loud, I'm just asking--for the advanced math MJ uses to be brought into light in the same way. "Tough, that's your problem--go look it up" is the defensive, knee-jerk reaction I've received instead of the help I'm sure others would also appreciate. I hope you're never in a position where you want to learn something that's beyond your current education level. If you do, eat your own medicine.

Edit: If I had the secret to life but couldn't make it accessible to others, what good is knowing it?

It's not a knee-jerk defensive reaction: juggler has provided layperson explanations alongside the equations, the long form of the equations themselves, a chart that encapsulates the results which anyone can read, a set of specific predictions about ship performance & meta expectations that have proven reliable in the real world (you - and anyone else - can do the physical test at home or in Vassal to test for yourself. Run through real world jousts several times with the ships you think are unfairly represented in the model. What happens?), and all of this is provided on an open forum where any challenger would no doubt be happy to prove it all wrong with a superior model.

Your 'calculations' are napkin maths attached to no model, with no predictive qualities and no clear goal. It's not what you see when you open the MathWing material because it's not rigorous or useful, nevermind the complexity.

I'm really hoping for a cool Rogue Squadron package from FFG, but what I don't want is for the Rogues to be the ONLY X Wings that people ever use. I want generic X's to be considered valuable and powerful tools as well.

Has anyone considered that the lack of scenarios and the artificial fixation with 100 point deathmatches might be part of the problem? What if we forced competitors to ALWAYS play different factions? Would that change things? What if we upped the 'standard' game to 125 or 150 points? What if there were a range of scenarios that rewarded things OTHER than simply blowing up ships?