Ok, so this will be my second trip to Indianapolis (Gencon), last year I attended and played UFS after starting the game only a month prior. It goes without saying I intend to do much better this year (didn’t do to badly last year either all things considered).
Today is a day off, but I find myself at the office anyways, and for the better part of the day. I had hoped to get some PD done that I have been shirking for the better part of half a year… But as I finish chewing on some olives I find my mind wandering and thought it would be best to articulate my thoughts on the UFS meta prior to putting a nail in my two competitive decks (teams and singles). As the song says “I wish I had you to talk to”, unfortunately not everything played, little more everything thought, is posted up on the forums. Find this my attempt at cultivating some discussion, results are one thing, but rationale is what makes decks work – so here you have it!
Speaking of results, many of my ‘recently played’ inferences come from the results of recent tourneys: I’m taking Socal, Calgary, East Coast Championship, and the Great Lakes regionals. I’d like to add team Canadian Nationals and the Manitoba one to that list but I don’t have details as of this article, lest re: the former the fact that Mike ran Olexa and Andre was using Bishamon (2 characters that are also represented by the regional data), and the latter that Hilde was top 2 pre cut (also represented by the regional data). Taking these 4 regional’s we have the following:
Symbols (main, does not account for multi – ‘W = win’)
Earth w/ 7, WIN
Order w/6, WIN
Death w/5, WIN (split with Chaos, i.e. Victor)
Air w/4, WIN
Good w/4
All w/2
Fire, Evil, Water, Void w/1
Characters
Recurring- Sagat, Raphael, Dan, Tira, Zi Mei, Felicia
High Swiss/Final placing (that aren’t recurring)- Hilde, Talbain, Olexa, Alex, Bishamon, Guy <apologies for missing any>
Ostensibly missing- Akuma? Probably the reason we have seen Earth do well, along with the lack of Spinta in many of the decklists, is the lack of Akuma from play. We won’t ‘not’ see him at worlds. Interestingly enough his 3 symbols all have 1 top 8 only/respectively…
What’s changed, or rather what’s missing?
The big question is which of the banned cards could have got away with thinking they were ‘Irreplaceable’. My opinion - From most ‘irreplaceable to least (most replaceable)’
1. Olcadon’s – Honestly, this card being gone is what has seen the Earth symbol make a recent surge, namely it’s strong defensive cards get to stay in play and generally more ready (Blinding Rage, although strong, wasn’t enough of an answer)... Olcadon’s was irreplaceable for a lot of symbols. To my knowledge there are now fewer ways to deal with problem foundations (add to this Chester’s gone and it is difficult to say the least).
2. Forethought – Some people will hate me for this. But nothing is ‘as viable’ at slowing down build. Play this first turn with two other foundations and you basically said to the opponent you can now play 2/3 foundations instead of 4/5. Another reason Earth (a symbol with jack for hack) is able to play now is the banning of this card.
3. Chester’s- Can’t replace this, closest to it is vast negation, which only a few symbols have access to… See Death, Death can replace Chester’s, a fairly limited statement, also no life gain.
4. Bitter Rivals- Nothing was so offensive/defensive and had the most ‘use’ in competitive play under the Evil symbol. Saikyo Ryo stands to replace it in some decks… But not much else changes zones as well and as repetitively with little cost and along with the look at hand backing.
5. Rejection- This card is difficult to replace for the symbols it ran on, there isn’t a lot of early damage redux for these symbols. The easy way to replace this is with thoughtful playing, better blocks, more quick-control etc. But I can tell some decks are struggling to survive with sub-20 life against certain characters.
6. Feline Spike – There aren’t that many early kill cards that go beyond character specific abilities now. Feline could be run by any of these three symbols with ‘gain two momentum items’ and kill turn 2/3 easy. Of course, Felicia still poses this threat… The card’s damage is arguably replaceable by Menuett Dance, but the text on Spike is not replaceable in any way shape or form.
7. Lord of the Makai – Oddly enough this card is replaceable, but not efficiently, without some brainstorming. Obviously there is a lot that gains momentum, and there are more than a few recursive items in the game, they can all and have all replaced LotM, but none do it as well. The loss of 6+7 is what has seen the strength of some agro decks take a dive, taking a few extra turns before kill, etc.
8. Tiger Fury – the One Hit Kill took a bit of a hit with the bannings. There are still High Plasma and Sardine Special that bring single attacks to seemingly infinite damage; both of them require a much higher cost than Tiger Fury. Whereas Tiger Fury was dependant on foundations, Plasma needs ‘committed foundations’, meaning a miss-hit is easily countered for a win, and Sardine needs opponents with foundations, which means more answers in play (especially w/o Olc).
The ones not on the list are all irreplaceable (yes I think the kick from Hanzo can’t easily be replaced with something else, +1 difficulty on a low damage attack is a lot).
Symbols (a ‘forest for the trees’ look at the refined meta post banning)
From the results we have 5 symbols that stand out from the others at the moment, I don’t dare rank them, nor would I say they stand alone:
Order – Good – Earth – Air – Death
Most people start their deck decision at character, but it goes without saying that a strong character is nothing without support from a synergistic symbol. On the flip side, some symbols are more prevalent because they are found on characters with strong abilities.
Before US nats there was a very solid breakdown of the top 3 symbols posted by Matt, those being Air, Evil, and Order. Not surprisingly, 6/8 of the top 8 decks used those symbols at the nationals, and I’d argue that the other 2/8, being All decks, were just ones that were able to take some of the better cards those 3 symbols ran (Chesters/BRT/Bitter Rivals/Lord of the Makai, etc.) hmmm, 3/4 of those cards are gone now. All is a very different symbol. But are Air, Evil, and Order changed as well, or is what All didn’t steal from them still enough to keep them on top? And what of Death? A symbol that didn’t lose a single card*, and a symbol that gained two foundation cards from reprints…
I am in agreement that Evil is having problems lately… I don’t deny that it still has cards that are some of the strongest in the game; it just has fewer of them. I would expect to see Evil splashed with Order/Death/Chaos/Fire/Earth/Good if anything. But I highly doubt you will see a stand alone Evil deck do anything amazing. Evil still has some of the best pick of characters though, Ibuki/Zi Mei/Akuma/Olexa etc.
Air and Order are still top of the heap and for good reason. I think we will see more than a few of Felicia/Tira/Olexa, and any 7hs+ order is probably pretty viable. It comes down to which Order character has the best ability, or stats? Order’s always been a fairly complete symbol, and an ability-less character like Gill could still be run quite viably. Ability wise we have Guy/Frogase for momentum, Rock for draw/fake hs, Mina goes without saying…
Good/Earth, I always see them as similar symbols but they aren’t really. Good offers more protection from abilities (lotus/destiny), whereas Earth offers more protection from damage (cutting edge/battle prowess). Earth also has Inhuman Perception, a card that noticeably shares 3 symbols with the power 5. Other cards that you can be sure you will see because they share multiple symbols with the power 5 are: Amy’s Assistance, Holding Ground, Tag Along, and of course - Cursed Blood.
And then there is Death. A symbol that is greatly misunderstood at the moment seeing as how it’s coming out of a period of dormancy. One of the more interesting losses Death has suffered is *Dead for 1000 Years and its reversed ruling. I’ve always seen Death as a symbol that needs to have more answers out than the opponent has problems, and with Cursed Blood back it can manage to do this. Martial Arts Champion also goes a long way to ensuring this as well, because draw heavy -> build decks are stumped by it. Death is the new Evil, and you can probably expect most veteran players that are in love with Evil’s chess game to head to Death to steer the steady course to victory. Death also has a lot of one turn kill attacks with the release of SCIV – namely Menuett, Vibrato, Knight Breaker, and Launcher. Expect Tira/Zi Mei/Blanka/Donovan and Victor to rock Death, but I’d also look out for Gill, Fio, and maybe Morrigan…
Thoughts so far? I’ll pencil more of mine time permitting (specifically a technique discussion). But I’m interested in what people are thinking re: symbols and the different results we have seen post banning(s) as of after this weekend (can’t see much happening next weekend tourney wise – correct me if I’m wrong)…
- dut