First thing that jumps out at me, is your list carries more X-wings than his list has TIEs. I'm still liking the "kill his fighters first " advice, and see it as being even easier if you've got the advantage in both quantity and quality over his squadrons.
So how would you play against my opponent
Don't fear the anti-squadron fire from his VSDs, or even 2 blues from the future GSD.
Another thing, firing at different hull sections of a VSD isn't a bad idea. Why? Because the VSD has 2 redirect defenses. The main defense of a VSD is its shields, so even if you're focusing fire in one hull zone, he'll be redirecting to other hull zones more often than not. You're more likely to drain all of a VSDs shields before you start causing damage, and that's okay, because if they have no shields anywhere redirecting is pointless, and your ships and squadrons can hit them from every angle.
Inksplat – I know its a bit of an ask but would you mind doing a battle report with some pictures (sketchy phone pics would do – just something to give us an idea of the large scale moves)? To make things really tricky could you do a game where the imperials are the second player?
I understand what you guys describe in theory, but to actually make it work on the table feels like the complete perfection with both distances and timing of commands.
There seem to be a few of us finding it quite easy to thwart what the rebels need to do to win and just out grind them, or wait for them to make that one positioning error and get blown away. I have usually been setting navigation commands for the victories on turns 1 and 2 or 2 and 3, and that seems to set things up so the rebel capitals either have to disengage before achieving anything meaningful, or stick around and end up in a bad position sooner or later.
I don’t fully see how you are simultaneously balancing the requirement for navigation, repair, and squadron commands on the capitals while keeping them in range of the fighters, and out of harms way of the capitals. It seems like you must A - just be much better than your opponents, B- have worked something cool out that some of us aren’t seeing, C – are a wizard. I'm fascinated by how you are managing all this! :-)