Han and Predator

By Malekxp, in X-Wing Rules Questions

I'm trying to figure out if this is valid or if I'm just over thinking it. If Han is equipped with the EPT Predator can he reroll a die(or dice depending on the target's PS) keep that result if it is good and then reroll the remaining dice using his ability? I ask this because the rules state a modify attack dice ability can only be used to reroll a die once. Hans ability is the faq is a modify attack dice ability and his card says you must reroll as many dice as possible. The ones rerolled from Predator would not be possible to be rerolled again so that result must be kept correct?

Yes.

You could reroll 1-2 dice using Predator, then use Han's ability to reroll any other dice that are left over.

Edited by VanorDM

Correct. You can use as many dice modifying abilities as you like as long as each die is only rerolled at most one time.

Correct.

Now I'm wondering what the situation is where you re-roll one die and decide that's good and then decide to re-roll everything else instead of just re-rolling everything to begin with.

Correct.

Now I'm wondering what the situation is where you re-roll one die and decide that's good and then decide to re-roll everything else instead of just re-rolling everything to begin with.

Mathematically there is no point to predator with Han. If you roll predator and get hits, you could re-roll the rest while the hits are "Locked". But if you roll two miss results you are still stuck with them. You might as well just use Hans ability and save the three points for anything else.

Correct.

Now I'm wondering what the situation is where you re-roll one die and decide that's good and then decide to re-roll everything else instead of just re-rolling everything to begin with.

Mathematically there is no point to predator with Han. If you roll predator and get hits, you could re-roll the rest while the hits are "Locked". But if you roll two miss results you are still stuck with them. You might as well just use Hans ability and save the three points for anything else.

I'm not sure I entirely agree with that. There are times when you roll you attack and just have one or maybe two dice to reroll as the rest are 'good' results; those are the times you use Predator and leave Han's ability alone. Then there are the times the whole roll is bad so you might as well reroll everything.

Correct.

Now I'm wondering what the situation is where you re-roll one die and decide that's good and then decide to re-roll everything else instead of just re-rolling everything to begin with.

Mathematically there is no point to predator with Han. If you roll predator and get hits, you could re-roll the rest while the hits are "Locked". But if you roll two miss results you are still stuck with them. You might as well just use Hans ability and save the three points for anything else.

You use Predator on Han as a hedge against not needing to reroll all your dice. Say you roll H H B. If you don't have Predator you'd have to reroll all 3 dice including the 2 hits, using Han's ability. Predator allows you to keep the 2 hits and just reroll the blank. Of course, if you roll B B B, you'd just ignore Predator and just use Han's ability.

Predator on Han allows you to choose to use Han's ability or Predator. If you just repeatedly use Han's ability, you should really only ever expect to get 1.5 hits on 3 dice. Sometimes you'll hit the max and get 3, and sometimes you'll min out and get 0, but your expectation should be 1.5 (assuming no focus). With Predator rerollng after Han's initial roll, you expectation for hits should be 2 (after rerollng one die).

If you just repeatedly use Han's ability, you should really only ever expect to get 1.5 hits on 3 dice. Sometimes you'll hit the max and get 3, and sometimes you'll min out and get 0, but your expectation should be 1.5 (assuming no focus).

With Han's ability, your expected number of hits/crits is actually more than 1.5. This is because, even though the expected number of hits/crits for each individual 3 dice roll is 1.5, you'll only use Han's ability if you get less than 1.5 on your initial roll.

Your expected number of hits/crits, supposing 3 dice, no focus, PS3+ defender and...

  • No modifiers: 1.5
  • Han's re-roll: 1.875
  • Predator: 1.9375
  • Han's re-roll OR predator*: 2.0625

*This is supposing the following strategy:

  • With 0 or 1 hits/crits on initial roll, use Han
  • With 2 hits/crits, use Predator
  • With 3 hits/crits, keep them - duh.

If you just repeatedly use Han's ability, you should really only ever expect to get 1.5 hits on 3 dice. Sometimes you'll hit the max and get 3, and sometimes you'll min out and get 0, but your expectation should be 1.5 (assuming no focus).

With Han's ability, your expected number of hits/crits is actually more than 1.5. This is because, even though the expected number of hits/crits for each individual 3 dice roll is 1.5, you'll only use Han's ability if you get less than 1.5 on your initial roll.

Your expected number of hits/crits, supposing 3 dice, no focus, PS3+ defender and...

  • No modifiers: 1.5
  • Han's re-roll: 1.875
  • Predator: 1.9375
  • Han's re-roll OR predator*: 2.0625

*This is supposing the following strategy:

  • With 0 or 1 hits/crits on initial roll, use Han
  • With 2 hits/crits, use Predator
  • With 3 hits/crits, keep them - duh.

I understand what you are saying, but I still think Han only ever gets you 1.5 hits (with no modifiers). Each roll of the dice is independent of any other roll. Any time you roll 3 attack dice with zero modifiers, your expected result should be 1.5 hits. So, even if you only reroll when getting 1hit or less, you should still expect 1.5 hits on the reroll. How are you getting 1.875? This could be a Monty Hall type paradox and I'd love to see the math to see how you are getting there, sincerely.

I understand what you are saying, but I still think Han only ever gets you 1.5 hits (with no modifiers). Each roll of the dice is independent of any other roll. Any time you roll 3 attack dice with zero modifiers, your expected result should be 1.5 hits. So, even if you only reroll when getting 1hit or less, you should still expect 1.5 hits on the reroll. How are you getting 1.875? This could be a Monty Hall type paradox and I'd love to see the math to see how you are getting there, sincerely.

This is in no way a Monty Hall problem.

The thing you need to remember is that you're only re-rolling everything if you get less than 1.5 hits.

Here's a breakdown of all the possible outcomes.

Result of first roll:

  • 12.5% chance of getting 0 hits
  • 37.5% chance of getting 1 hit
  • 37.5% chance of getting 2 hits
  • 12.5% chance of getting 3 hits

In 50% of the cases (0 or 1 hits), you'll re-roll everything, and get the same distribution as above.

In the other 50% of the cases, you keep you're above average result. Therefore, after both potential rolls, the possible outcomes are:

  • 50% chance of re-rolling
    • 12.5% chance of getting 0 hits
    • 37.5% chance of getting 1 hit
    • 37.5% chance of getting 2 hits
    • 12.5% chance of getting 3 hits
  • 37.5% chance of getting 2 hits
  • 12.5% chance of getting 3 hits

If we combine all of the above...

  • 6.3% chance of re-rolling and getting 0 hits
  • 18.8% chance of re-rolling and getting 1 hit
  • 18.8% chance of getting re-rolling and 2 hits
  • 6.3% chance of getting re-rolling and 3 hits
  • 37.5% chance of getting 2 hits
  • 12.5% chance of getting 3 hits

And one step further...

  • 6.3% chance getting 0 hits
  • 18.8% chance of getting 1 hit
  • 56.25% chance of getting 2 hits
  • 18.8% chance of getting 3 hits

You can see that the 2 and 3 hit outcomes are more likely than with a single roll.

A similar scenario would be to say: "Roll 2 D6s and keep the highest."

Each D6 is independant of the other and has an expected value of 3.5. But, since you're rolling 2 and keeping the highest, you're expected result is higher than that.

The math on using Han is tricky because you really can NOT roll 1.5 'hits' with 3 dice but it the good breaking point. If you roll 2-3 hits then you've done better than average and should sit on them instead of risking them going lower. If you roll 0-1 hit then you reroll because the average will give you more hits. Half the time you don't use Han because you average 2.5 hits but the other half of the time where you do use Han you start with 0.5 hits but rerolling makes it 1.5 hits. Combining the two should mean 2 hits. Of course this is oversimplified because you have a much better chance at getting 1 or 2 hits on the initial roll than you do 0 or 3 which likely moves the actual number to what Klutz provided. If we were just using d4-1 to determine the number of hits this is what thing would look like.

Klutz is correct. The selective reroll is what changes the odds. I ran a simulation where I would roll the dice 10000 times, and I got 1.5 hits on average. If I then ran the simulation again, but rerolling all three dice in situations where the original roll had 1 hit or less, the simulation would average about 1.86 hits. Learn something everyday.

Awesome explanation. I thought it made no sense to have Han plus Predator. I changed my mind after this. Thank you all.

Pair it with Luke as crew for even more silliness.